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Spinoza's Ethic
29 Nov 16 19:02
Date Joined: 31 Jul 05
| Topic/replies: 1,619 | Blogger: Spinoza's Ethic's blog
If last night's bottom two are to be believed then, regardless of whether Carol's previous two "it might be you"s were genuine or not, it seems that Wayne's support is below that of Carol. And, clearly, below that of Sam. Although a rather dull trial, the two girls also received plenty of airtime yesterday. In this scenario I would make Wayne favourite to go tonight.
If, on the other hand, Wayne was not bottom two, then the above argument is largely spurious.
The current market prices suggest that the market does not believe he was bottom two.
If, as I do, you believe there is a fair chance that it "might have been" Wayne, then his odds to be evicted (currently 7 BF Sportsbook, 5.5-6.5 elsewhere) represent outstanding value.
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Report hemsby November 29, 2016 7:12 PM GMT
Hi Spin

Certainly wouldn't put you off backing him,however the person who gets the "it might be you" but survives has a decent track record of escaping the next elimination.Bit like the XF bounce I suppose.....viewers know they're in trouble and are motivated to vote a touch more.

I backed him last night at a big price,but haven't tonight.....that's a positive for your wager Grin
Report MythicalMadMan November 29, 2016 7:13 PM GMT
I cant see any reason he would have been a fake bottom 2 they usually do it for a reason and he is fairly dull character but still nice all the same. Only worry is the bottom 2 bounce which can easily be negated by a bad/non edit. Also with 2 females gone on the bounce would producers want to lose another so quick leaving 6 guys and 2 girls?

The only reason I could think they would, would be the raise Moffets profile higher in some kinda girl power thing.

Ive also backed Larry a bit as it looks like Jordan steals the show tonight so he will suck up most of the trail voters, and if Larry gets a tesco edit elsewhere there is a chance he goes
Report MythicalMadMan November 29, 2016 7:14 PM GMT
O and Im in agreement with SE :D
Report Spinoza's Ethic November 29, 2016 7:20 PM GMT
Agree with the above by Hemmers and Mythers, but I remember being burnt by Eubank. Either way, still outstanding value.
Report bearcub November 29, 2016 7:22 PM GMT
I'm actually irritated by you adding ers to every forumites name
Report Spinoza's Ethic November 29, 2016 7:23 PM GMT
Sorry Ursers
Report gambleterry. November 29, 2016 7:26 PM GMT
think Sam Quek will go tonight, currently 3.25 on sportsbook
Report timbuctooth November 29, 2016 7:29 PM GMT
Hello and welcome, Terry.
Report gambleterry. November 29, 2016 7:31 PM GMT
Report bearcub November 29, 2016 7:43 PM GMT
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