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George Bailey
11 Jun 16 00:24
Joined:
Date Joined: 04 Apr 10
| Topic/replies: 62,054 | Blogger: George Bailey's blog
Backed brexit as a trade but hanging on to it for now. Brexit 10% clear latest poll. I assumed the silent majority will win it for remain and they may but lots of outers and they are more likely to vote. Turnout and margins also interesting markets.
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Report timbuctooth June 24, 2016 5:43 AM BST
Gotta be a very real chance of Northern Ireland now holding a referendum re. a United Ireland. Population there something like 60-40 pro UK, but this could chamge everything, with most of the Nationalists guaranteed to vote `yes`, and quite easily enough previously pro-UKers taking a deep swallow and voting `yes` as well.
Report Angela Rebecchi June 24, 2016 6:12 AM BST
Remain over 52.5%

1.25            £78
1.27            £1,000
1.28            £180
1.29            £25
1.3            £152
1.31            £660
1.32    £16        £2,959
1.33    £98        £6,368
1.34    £55        £2,303
1.35            £3,959
1.36            £2,837
1.37    £29        £3,394
1.38    £423        £3,384
1.39            £5,836
1.40    £27        £6,939
1.41    £0        £3,693
1.42            £10,229
1.43            £2,202
1.44            £1,316
1.45            £12,266
1.46            £2,630
1.47            £2,465
1.48            £731
1.49            £249
1.5            £4,248
Report Angela Rebecchi June 24, 2016 6:13 AM BST
Staying In

1.06    £11,680        £130,230
1.07    £3,956        £314,668
1.08    £2,648        £121,722
1.09    £6,230        £355,232
1.10    £5,849        £697,291
1.11    £5,183        £811,180
1.12    £2,235        £1,848,594
1.13    £2,016        £1,187,194
1.14    £3,242        £1,858,230
1.15    £1,338        £1,626,503
1.16    £2,177        £1,182,682
1.17    £3,305        £1,436,152
1.18    £3,380        £1,217,718
1.19    £210        £1,903,832
1.20    £9,679        £751,541
1.21    £670        £948,468
1.22    £233        £866,128
1.23    £23        £560,220
1.24    £75        £610,313
1.25    £3,236        £570,209
1.26    £133        £1,080,922
1.27    £195        £1,064,906
1.28    £334        £1,619,772
1.29    £275        £1,626,136
1.30    £1,630        £1,378,478
1.31    £12,020        £1,959,031
1.32    £165        £1,906,785
1.33    £4,634        £1,944,312
1.34    £125        £1,964,971
1.35    £2,556        £1,536,690
1.36    £2        £1,172,940
1.37    £114        £1,282,154
1.38    £372        £1,580,277
1.39    £22        £1,380,922
1.40    £871        £1,283,532
1.41    £2,942        £1,209,043
1.42    £18        £1,331,877
1.43    £28        £1,534,293
1.44    £69        £1,614,171
1.45    £1,428        £1,977,662
1.46    £57        £1,138,933
1.47    £685        £760,616
1.48    £1,240        £515,415
1.49    £94        £775,327
1.50    £1,176        £1,190,025
1.51    £555        £1,020,768
1.52    £433        £1,280,896
1.53    £294        £1,374,999
1.54    £102        £1,808,922
1.55    £310        £1,522,775
1.56            £1,326,454
1.57    £300        £973,536
1.58    £292        £1,637,659
1.59    £481        £758,280
1.60    £690        £796,611
1.61    £140        £422,665
1.62    £502        £362,448
1.63    £1,253        £227,623
1.64    £3        £248,898
1.65    £304        £274,450
1.66    £118        £411,850
1.67    £46        £481,537
1.68    £40        £481,596
1.69            £419,566
1.70    £990        £530,360
1.71    £1,628        £316,132
1.72    £259        £314,491
1.73    £66        £201,813
1.74    £219        £196,088
1.75    £8        £171,192
1.76    £72        £140,527
1.77            £157,298
1.78    £53        £88,861
1.79            £138,477
1.80    £760        £221,243
1.81    £229        £178,542
1.82    £19        £187,903
1.83    £136        £170,269
1.84    £1,005        £130,070
1.85    £45        £125,128
1.86            £126,163
1.87    £45        £150,685
1.88    £3,278        £145,282
1.89    £989        £148,048
1.90    £693        £208,853
1.91    £900        £50,465
1.92    £496        £69,971
1.93    £7        £59,260
1.94    £50        £59,940
1.95    £500        £94,357
1.96            £112,567
1.97    £5        £79,361
1.98    £515        £79,801
1.99    £4        £92,856
2.00    £8,012        £126,288
2.02    £668        £184,291
2.04    £676        £105,756
2.06    £97        £78,710
2.08    £146        £31,496
2.10    £2,217        £58,622
2.12    £955        £45,835
2.14    £3        £46,896
2.16    £29        £58,044
2.18    £273        £68,335
2.20    £236        £23,114
2.22    £24        £14,538
2.24    £97        £18,723
2.26    £59        £18,741
2.28    £156        £42,026
2.30    £32        £54,103
2.32    £76        £23,370
2.34    £255        £9,183
2.36    £158        £24,879
2.38            £14,951
2.40    £131        £57,921
2.42    £92        £63,988
2.44    £51        £48,263
2.46    £70        £30,143
2.48    £372        £30,228
2.50    £212        £52,241
2.52    £1        £33,094
2.54            £13,535
2.56    £47        £17,685
2.58            £28,699
2.60    £80        £35,645
2.62    £53        £22,953
2.64    £50        £23,214
2.66    £154        £11,883
2.68    £47        £27,786
2.70    £4        £32,671
2.72    £3        £28,943
2.74    £398        £21,302
2.76            £7,338
2.78            £14,061
2.80    £550        £11,958
2.82            £7,237
2.84    £40        £10,062
2.86            £4,034
2.88            £1,176
2.9            £17,271
2.92    £112        £3,236
2.94            £1,420
2.96            £3,257
2.98            £1,682
3.00    £1,964        £17,072
3.05    £3,050        £14,196
3.10    £21        £11,879
3.15    £2        £11,257
3.20    £6        £21,793
3.25    £36        £18,436
3.30    £3        £7,330
3.35    £0        £5,664
3.40    £10        £7,385
3.45    £2        £3,666
3.50    £4,501        £2,508
3.55    £225        £8,133
3.60    £97        £41,805
3.65            £20,761
3.7            £47,423
3.75    £9        £37,579
3.8            £25,150
3.85    £331        £14,218
3.90    £27        £11,362
3.95            £13,344
4.00    £91        £18,553
4.10    £12        £8,834
4.2            £7,991
4.30    £17        £10,227
4.40    £48        £14,977
4.50    £17        £17,154
4.6            £4,433
4.70    £17        £5,898
4.80    £25        £2,261
4.90    £50        £3,276
5.00    £133        £3,508
5.10    £79        £2,909
5.20    £25        £1,767
5.30    £27        £5,182
5.40    £5        £4,119
5.50    £1,576        £8,637
5.60    £54        £5,733
5.70    £108        £2,501
5.8            £1,904
5.9            £2,361
6.00    £639        £8,502
6.20    £136        £6,449
6.40    £0        £17,839
6.60    £0        £31,882
6.80    £8        £40,996
7.00    £70        £43,137
7.20    £3        £32,950
7.4            £12,611
7.60    £77        £9,345
7.80    £2        £5,960
8.00    £39        £6,463
8.2            £9,936
8.4            £10,973
8.60    £11        £11,025
8.8            £6,737
9.00    £708        £8,837
9.20    £147        £4,721
9.4            £2,456
9.60    £10        £2,715
9.80    £55        £929
10.00    £81        £7,754
10.5            £9,477
11.00    £43        £20,391
11.5            £4,334
12.00    £26        £7,104
12.50    £18        £1,659
13.00    £2        £2,256
13.50    £52        £15,843
14.00    £7        £12,347
14.5            £3,837
15.00    £20        £7,016
15.50    £50        £5,403
16.00    £12        £6,685
16.5            £5,379
17            £3,837
17.50    £0        £5,400
18            £6,291
18.5            £1,257
19            £790
19.5            £381
20.00    £11        £1,279
21.00    £5        £14,177
22            £19,330
23            £2,730
24            £2,540
25            £343
26.00    £61        £2,968
27            £3,865
28            £2,286
29            £558
30            £1,104
32            £614
34.00    £3        £883
36            £730
38            £1,846
40            £2,875
42            £945
44            £420
46.00    £2        £59
48            £29
50.00    £26        £257
55.00    £2        £682
60            £698
65            £2,220
70            £405
75            £164
80            £905
85            £784
90            £3,213
95            £3,991
100.00    £3        £2,564
110            £2,330
120            £2,156
130            £1,691
140            £1,364
150.00    £43        £2,072
160            £875
170            £651
180            £568
190            £231
200            £1,136
210            £91
220            £385
230            £234
240            £484
250            £352
260            £40
270.00    £3        £58
280            £125
290.00    £2        £222
300            £275
310            £81
320            £124
330            £173
340            £193
350            £268
360            £173
370            £61
380            £113
390            £79
400            £42
410            £10
420            £35
430            £6
440            £16
460            £3
470            £23
480            £0
500            £7
520            £3
530            £4
550            £6
590            £8
630            £4
700            £0
780            £9
890            £2
900            £4
940            £1
950            £0
990            £2
1000            £93
Report Jack Bauer '24' June 24, 2016 8:27 AM BST
Cameron announces resignation.
Report Henry VIII June 24, 2016 9:16 AM BST
112 million matched. The money is there when something comes along that people want to bet on.
Report Jack Bauer '24' June 24, 2016 10:01 AM BST
It's mainly traded money going back and forth continuously.
Report Henry VIII June 24, 2016 10:24 AM BST
That's true. But like other such markets it's still real liquidity and the ability to get on and off a wide variety of prices with decent amounts.
Report Jack Bauer '24' June 24, 2016 10:33 AM BST
We need some of those 1.06 backers to take an interest in Specials markets.
Report Tom_Ato June 24, 2016 11:39 AM BST
Does anyone else have a really bad feeling about the long term repercussions of this? I envisage other countries following suit and the EU falling a part, and we are back to the warfare of pre EU times.
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed June 24, 2016 1:12 PM BST
Yes, Tom. This is not a good thing for Europe.
It's like the tough guy in the school playground rejecting his gang of lackeys...
They are going to turn on each other, and on him.
Report Henry VIII June 24, 2016 1:48 PM BST
No warfare in Europe. We're much more integrated now, economically, culturally, ideologically, EU or not.

I always thought the necessary political integration and control however gave more potential for future tension and discord among EU members, rather than less.
Report Henry VIII June 24, 2016 7:40 PM BST
Our promised financial panic meltdown hasn't happened yet.

FTSE closed today 6138 down 3%. To contextualise that - it closed lower than that all Jan and Feb of 2016, troughing at 5537 on 11 Feb 2016.

EUR per 1 GBP closed at 1.22. Although lower than recent, between 6-10 Apr 2016 it was 1.23. In Jan 2009 it spent a lot of time below 1.10, troughing at 1.04.

USD per 1 GBP fares worse but hardly catastrophic and not below what it dropped to in 2009.
Report five leaves left June 24, 2016 7:53 PM BST
The FTSE 250, which is mostly made up of companies that trade in the UK, took a bigger hit, shedding 7.2% to close at 16,088 points.
Report Henry VIII June 24, 2016 7:58 PM BST
James Melville ‏@JamesMelville 5h5 hours ago
More value has been wiped off the FTSE and £ in 12 hours than the total sum of EU contributions ever made by UK.
#Brexit

John Clarke ‏@JohnClarke1960 12h12 hours ago
Interesting fact: The country has lost MORE money in the hours since the OUT result than it could ever save from not paying into the EU.


Deception or ignorance. The only thing of those quoted above that represents a real tangible money loss is the EU contributions.

But I think there will be uncertainty and loss short term.
Report Henry VIII June 25, 2016 8:25 AM BST
"Brexit baffled punters, pundits and fund managers to the very end"

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-predictions-idUSKCN0ZB06R
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed June 26, 2016 7:41 AM BST
Sorry, you were correct Tom. You're mud hut might drop in value. If you are going to buy another, don't aim too high. There will be no body who can pay high rents as no body will have a job.

This guy knows what he is talking about...

.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/brexit-eu-disintegration-inevitable-by-george-soros-2016-06
Report George Bailey June 26, 2016 11:40 AM BST
Shocking decision with major ramifications...covers band Led Zep clearly ripped off Spirit. I'm starting a petition for a retrial.
Report George Bailey June 26, 2016 11:42 AM BST
Ebbw Vale now officially the thickest place in the UK...zero immigration and just about the biggest recipient of EU funding in the country but still vote to leave. Crazy
Report Froggitt June 27, 2016 9:47 AM BST
but they love democracy closer to the people in them valleys
Report George Bailey June 27, 2016 12:26 PM BST
they like sheep
Report George Bailey June 27, 2016 12:26 PM BST
#are
Report George Bailey June 27, 2016 12:28 PM BST
In retrospect given the size of the market, the stupidity of a lot of the money chasers and the astuteness of many on here this could have made for life changing wins....lets campaign for a second one...for the good of the country
Report timbuctooth June 27, 2016 3:49 PM BST
Anyone know who someone called `Ben Bradshaw` is? No, nor me. nevertheless, he`s important enough in his own front room to be on Fivelive telling 17m Brexiters they were wrong, that all non-Labour Party members are wrong, and that the only ones who are right are the handful of treacherously disloyal MPs who have resigned over the last day or two. Huffing, puffing, spluttering and seething, it`s a joy to see such blinkered arrogance, truly amusing. How much of a stronger message does he and his ilk need before they skulk off back to their front rooms?

Normally, I have zero interest in British politics, but thought it might be fun to watch this debate thingy; George Osborne`s suicidal body language has already justified my decision!
Report timbuctooth June 27, 2016 3:53 PM BST
Ken Clarke? You can phuck off back to Russia as well; almost certainly `The Sixth Man`.
Report Froggitt June 27, 2016 4:10 PM BST
lol
Report Froggitt June 27, 2016 4:10 PM BST

Jun 27, 2016 -- 6:26AM, George Bailey wrote:


they like sheep


they sure do

Report Froggitt June 27, 2016 4:30 PM BST
especially good looking ones
Report George Bailey June 27, 2016 8:04 PM BST
Is there a market?
Report Froggitt June 27, 2016 8:20 PM BST
farmers amrket?
Report five leaves left June 27, 2016 11:09 PM BST
The markets still holding up well Plain

Pound still falling. FTSE 250 down 15%. Lost our triple A credit status Something many have suffered 6 years of cruel pointless politically motivated austerity to keep
Report bearcub June 27, 2016 11:22 PM BST
#prayforSainsburys
Report five leaves left June 27, 2016 11:47 PM BST
Cry

Could it get any worse for them. Big boost for Iceland tonight Sad
Report bearcub June 28, 2016 12:04 AM BST
I wouldn't be surprised if a few nutters put their shop windows through tonight Cry
Report five leaves left June 28, 2016 12:08 AM BST
You've cheered me up now. Thanks bear Laugh
Report scampi June 28, 2016 5:29 AM BST
Iceland is the new Leicester ( Hopefully ;) - same population anyway!).
Report Henry VIII June 29, 2016 4:54 AM BST

Jun 27, 2016 -- 6:28AM, George Bailey wrote:


In retrospect given the size of the market, the stupidity of a lot of the money chasers and the astuteness of many on here this could have made for life changing wins....lets campaign for a second one...for the good of the country


Makes you think. It was an unexpected market for me, just 11 days of betting - mostly the two days during the vote and vote reveal - and yet in that short time was much bigger for me than the static BB. Prime Minister after Cameron is better than BB too.

At midday on Thur 23/6, the vote day, Remain went down to 1.11 for no good reason and had tens of thousands traded in a short time. It stayed just a tick or two above that price for a while.

Report Henry VIII June 29, 2016 5:02 AM BST
The main motivator for that price was the Populus phone poll that had just come out - REMAIN 10% ahead. It was the final poll announced (or thereabouts).

However Populus phone polls had always been way more favourable to Remain than other polls taken at the same time. (They were hired by Remain). As this one was.

The market reacted to individual pieces of data, which was bad enough, but in this case information was already available that the data was flawed (ie Populus past Brexit phone polls).

Anyway the point is that that sort of thing creates opportunities for people on here.
Report Henry VIII June 29, 2016 5:12 AM BST
Reminds me of stock market reporting where a company may drop just a few points and the commentators, Bloomberg etc, have to give a reason for it. Everything has to be understood, even if it can't be understood. There are reasons for long term movements and for big daily movements, but a short term small drop needs no explanation other than more people needed to sell than buy.

Not an exact analogy that, but that poll reaction just made me think of it - allowing a focus to obliterate the bigger picture.
Report Henry VIII June 29, 2016 5:17 AM BST
Another point: This little thread was so much better in every way than any thread in the Politics forum, which seems to be mostly a forum for political views.
Report George Bailey June 29, 2016 11:08 AM BST
The key thing betting wise was the inability of the commentators on the night to call the result. BBC was 4am iirc. This led to the money chasers continuing to plough in even after the game was up. They kept telling us it wasn't analogous to a GE when in fact it very much was. Once a couple of the early results came in and were ahead of leave projections it was pretty clear where the momentum/value lay. London was supposed to come to the rescue but it had been p1ssing down all day and inner/outer London are two different worlds and cancelled each other out.

Even re turnout the Sunderland result was 5% above GE turnout and the final national turnout was about that. Plenty of value in that market after the early results too. None of this is aftertiming as it was posted in running and informed trading...certainly mine.
Report George Bailey June 29, 2016 11:24 AM BST

Jun 28, 2016 -- 11:17PM, Henry VIII wrote:


Another point: This little thread was so much better in every way than any thread in the Politics forum, which seems to be mostly a forum for political views.


I dipped into the politics forum re USA but soon bailed...brought jolly with me so not a complete waste of time. As you say far more insight on here. False modesty aside at least three people posted they had won money based on my posts which is nice...market so big plenty to go round Grin

Report Tom_Ato June 29, 2016 11:58 AM BST
AND THE NEW!.... FOTY, master Geoooooooorge BAAAAAAAAILEEEEEY.
Report George Bailey June 29, 2016 12:20 PM BST
One swallow does not make a Summer...oo er missus
Report Tom_Ato June 29, 2016 12:43 PM BST
less of what you got up to in Magaluf in your young whippersnapper days.
Report timbuctooth June 29, 2016 2:28 PM BST
re. the Politics forum; no doubt they know far more about the subject than most of us do. But, (and it is quite a big `but`), they very rarely actually have anything to bet on! We`re betting every day of the year on our speciality, and perhaps we`ve become better at interpreting the signs of how public votes are going. Also, the Politics boys are usually just arguing their own political beliefs, whereas none of us have any `belief` at all in any of our greens: therefore, we`re incredibly more flexible when it comes to betting, ready to swap red to green without first having to overcome personal, deeply-held life-long views.

To me, there is absolutely no doubt that, as a whole, we `Specialists` are by far the most successful little group of players on bf. We don`t know how many of bf`s clients are long-term winners, but the highest guesses are maybe 10%; the regs on here would be 100% winners. Does 100% seem high? OK, name a reg who loses, long term? There isn`t one.
A large part of the reason behind such success is the very `friendliness` of Specials forumites; we all freely share our honest thoughts, and I`m more than happy to admit (as I have done many times before), that I learnt everything I know from some of these regs.

Bullet point? We few Specialists are the best.
Report Froggitt June 29, 2016 3:16 PM BST
good post. wasnt it squares that said you dont have to like your winners or dislike your losers.

who funds specials winners i guess is the pertinent question.
Report timbuctooth June 29, 2016 3:35 PM BST
I think it`s Lou.
Report jollyswagman June 29, 2016 3:40 PM BST
good analysis on specials as ever, i'm a bit busy now but will return to this later with a newbie's take.

might sound crazy but is the potus market wrong? (nicked from a chit chat thread on the back of news of latest polls being close)
Report Froggitt June 29, 2016 3:46 PM BST
potus very dangerous for us brits to get involved with. we cannot possibly gauge public opinion, so its just a gamble. fwiw, ive got a smallish position on trump, just because at the price its very tempting with the polls being close and a significant abc opinion.
Report George Bailey June 29, 2016 4:22 PM BST
Forget nationwide states its the battleground states that matter and there Trump is fecked. Republicans really must win Florida...Pennsylvania/Ohio... and there aren't enough angry whites there for him.

.
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/06/29/politics/battleground-polls-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/index.html?utm_content=buffer35525&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Report George Bailey June 29, 2016 4:33 PM BST
And we think we are a divided nation right now...

"The 2016 election has increased the level of hatred and prejudice in the U.S.," 61 percent of American voters say. Another 34 percent say it has had no impact. Of that 61 percent, 67 percent blame the Trump campaign and 16 percent blame the Clinton campaign.

"It would be difficult to imagine a less flattering from-the-gut reaction to Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"This is where we are. Voters find themselves in the middle of a mean-spirited, scorched earth campaign between two candidates they don't like. And they don't think either candidate would be a good president."

American voters are deeply divided along gender, racial, age and party lines. Women back Clinton 50 - 33 percent while men back Trump 47 - 34 percent.

White voters back Trump 47 - 34 percent. Black voters back Clinton 91 - 1 percent and Hispanic voters back her 50 - 33 percent. Voters 18 to 34 years old go Democratic 48 - 23 percent, while voters over 65 years old go Republican 51 - 35 percent.

Democrats go to Clinton 89 - 3 percent, as Republicans go to Trump 84 - 6 percent. Independent voters are divided with 36 percent for Trump and 34 percent for Clinton.

Both top candidates get negative favorability ratings, 34 - 57 percent for Trump and 37 - 57 percent for Clinton.

Trump will not be a good president, American voters say 58 - 35 percent.

Clinton will not be a good president, voters say 53 - 43 percent.

American voters say 58 - 33 percent that Clinton is better prepared to be president than Trump; 53 - 33 percent that she is more intelligent and 46 - 37 percent that she has higher moral standards. But voters say 45 - 37 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy and 49 - 43 percent that he is a stronger leader.
Report George Bailey June 29, 2016 4:35 PM BST
...that said old people vote more than young people...be an interesting election night
Report Froggitt June 29, 2016 4:42 PM BST
isnt there a petition to disenfranchise old folk from the next eu-reffy?
Report timbuctooth June 29, 2016 5:02 PM BST
Yep, `you dont have to like your greens or dislike your reds`. is copyright; squares, a few years ago.

Frog`s right, re POTUS; we can`t know as much as the colonials. Clearly, that doesn`t stop one or two of us from being hugely bombastic at times, when we think we know what`s going on! There is, however, a time for bombast, and a time for hiding in the corner. Which is where I`ve been for the last few weeks. There`s no doubt things seem to be going Clinton`s way, with the resulting drift in Trump`s price, but there`s still soooo long to go, anything could happen.

My `Anyone But Clinton` green would be one of my better wins, and have activated my `max green` strategy, concentrating on bringing the Clinton red down from an unnecessarily greedy `max`, to a currently fairly minor one. I`m not a `level-up` type and, specifically, would have a real problem actively `backing` La Clinton. Not just at 1.3x, but at any price!
Is the market `right` at that price? Who knows but, personally, I don`t believe Specials markets are EVER right, there`s just too many `unknowables`. (which, of course, is why it`s so relatively easy to win!). But, most of us thought the Brexit market was not only wrong for most of the time, but also incredibly slow-moving, ignoring any and all evidence in favour of `Leave`. It was the `sheer disbelief!` factor; a factor which I think is, and has been all along, holding Trump`s price too high. There`s an ever-increasing global  political disillusionment underway, but the self-proclaiming cognoscenti still don`t believe it. Nor, it seems, do markets.
Report George Bailey June 29, 2016 5:04 PM BST
Frog's wrong...with the internet i suspect we know more than 90% of Americans.
Report Froggitt June 29, 2016 5:07 PM BST
how very dare you.

shy trumpers will win him this election, or at least get him very close.
Report timbuctooth June 29, 2016 5:15 PM BST
Just thought of what I think is a possibly important theory; with bf being not only UK-centered but with the US also banning access, most of the money in the markets won`t be American. It will, to a large degree, be the exact same players who got Brexit so spectacularly wrong. In which case, CHAAAAARRRRRGGGGGE!!!
Report Froggitt June 29, 2016 5:22 PM BST
plus all the yanks using proxy servers........
Report George Bailey June 29, 2016 5:36 PM BST
If they go to that trouble to bet it really will be smart money
Report Tom_Ato June 29, 2016 6:09 PM BST
is corbyn going to leave, his position looks absolutely untenable, despite his defiance it will just get silly the longer he clings on. what do we think political gurus
Report Tom_Ato June 29, 2016 6:09 PM BST
i'm poised to oompa lumpa
Report bearcub June 29, 2016 6:20 PM BST
1.01 he stays
Report bearcub June 29, 2016 6:20 PM BST
but i might change that to 12's when it suits Wink
Report Froggitt June 29, 2016 6:23 PM BST
interestingly, eagles price is higher now than before watson pulled out
Report bearcub June 29, 2016 6:27 PM BST
She's not challenging
Report George Bailey June 29, 2016 6:28 PM BST

Jun 29, 2016 -- 12:20PM, bearcub wrote:


but i might change that to 12's when it suits


People who tip Natalie shouldn't throw stones Grin

Report George Bailey June 29, 2016 6:32 PM BST
Jezza v Watson might have been interesting. Watson would probably have won. If Its Jezza v Eagles different ball game. I voted for Jezza because I agree with his policies...we tried to battle for the middle ground with Milliband and that got us nowhere. If Kendall/Burnham/Cooper aren't the answer why is Eagle?
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed June 29, 2016 6:44 PM BST
We need a good strong woman to run the country. Thatcher was a dominatrix to the UK and we need more like that. Blush
Report timbuctooth June 29, 2016 6:46 PM BST
bearcub 29 Jun 16 18:20 
but i might change that to 12's when it suits

Burst out laughing! Very funny.
Sorry, GB2, but bear`s also already told you; `she`s not running`.
Report bearcub June 29, 2016 6:51 PM BST
She might be now apparently


(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account ‏@DPJHodges  16m16 minutes ago
Told categorically not true Angela Eagle won't challenge Corbyn. Understand issue is solely one of timing.
5 retweets 0 likes
Report bearcub June 29, 2016 6:51 PM BST
The whole things a mess, good for trading though Cool
Report timbuctooth June 29, 2016 6:54 PM BST
So she`s ruled out a current challenge, but might challenge at some point in the future? Presumably if everything fits into place, for her?
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed June 29, 2016 6:56 PM BST
"fits into place" or "gets her stake on at long odds"?
Report George Bailey June 29, 2016 6:56 PM BST
PLP know if they put a few up v Jezza it will split vote...they need a h2h. In a VTS marmite in a multiway does well
Report timbuctooth June 29, 2016 6:58 PM BST
Well, I`m sure Alex Salmond is cleaning up, in this market! Great friends wit Harry Redknapp...
Report George Bailey June 29, 2016 7:24 PM BST
Though in terms of momentum I think its probably game up for Jezza. At some point head/pragmatism will take over from heart; need to beat the Tories. Also who will get a vote? The £3ers? Full members? The PLP will be phoning Cowell for advice.
Report George Bailey June 29, 2016 7:27 PM BST
Ignore last post tbh I'm clueless at the moment (as usual...to save bear a post)...not betting for now
Report timbuctooth June 29, 2016 7:31 PM BST
Me too, it seems, with Eagle announcing a press conference, where she`ll declare her challenge1
Report Tom_Ato June 29, 2016 7:34 PM BST
i'm poised and waiting for the signal.

the signal is 'oompa lumpa'. when i hear it i will go trigger happy.
Report George Bailey June 29, 2016 7:37 PM BST
Don't be greedy Tom...remember....

Oompa loompa doompety da
If you're not greedy, you will go far
You will live in happiness too
Like the Oompa Loompa Doompety do
Report Tom_Ato June 29, 2016 7:41 PM BST
lol you are too funny man
Report bearcub June 29, 2016 7:48 PM BST
Confirmed she will announce tomorrow at 3pm

I wouldn't be in a rush to take short odds she beats Corbym
Report jollyswagman June 29, 2016 7:51 PM BST
its good of henry to describe politics as mostly a forum for political views as imo its a place where people throw sh1t at each other (i am afraid i must include myself in that). since the autumn i think there have been three threads started by people trying to make a nickle by gambling on political outcomes (and one of them was started by me and got zero responses Sad). my conclusion is that there arent that many gamblers on politics.

most of the politics forum are right wing and were voting out yet when asked about gambling on the outcome the few who answered said they were punting on remain winning to numb the pain as they thought it would break in favour of the status quo! even on the night most were more happy that out may win than seeing the potential cash return.

i was told that one of the polling firms used by many big city firms changed their polling methodology in the final few days and went from predicting out to remain on the voting day itself. i dont know if this is true but it would help explain why the market went crazy on the 23rd.

the market got this one wrong big time and (as george says) this could and should have been a major day for those with a bit of foresight. when i came to specials i said i was the worst punter ever and this is just another in a very long list where i didnt do very well despite correctly predicting the outcome Sad.

tim's comparison between specials punters and politics punters is right; he only heard of ben bradshaw recently but won a fair bit on the referendum  whereas i've known of bb for years and made pennies CryCryCryCry. what's worse for me is that i traded out very early so could have gone back in again for many, many hours but because the price was dropping my mindset wouldnt let me even though the lower prices were still massive value. the prices were wrong for fecking hours, imo even when leave went 1.01 it was still value to any big hitters as it should have gone no offers long before. that's more than enough of the diary of jolly, mug punter of the year, ad infinitum.

there is massive worlwide discontent with the political establishment and trump, despite the fact that he is nothing but a charlatan, is tapping into this. there's still a fair few months until the potus election and imo their economy hasnt got much upside but has plenty of downside which would benefit trump. who voted for brexit? angry, white, old people. the young were in favour of remain but didnt turn up. what do we know about bernie's potus effort? he excited the youngsters but they couldnt be bothered to turn up. trump's supporters are much more motivated than clintons imo. i am not saying he will win but the precedent is there (i should mention some republicans are still trying to block him). any views welcome as ever.

i thought bozo was bad value when he went odds on for tory leader as they have a long history (9 elections over 60 years i'm lead to believe) of turning over the favourite. however, with lots of MPs even those who favoured remain supporting him and thinking the tory faithful like him i'm not so sure. the second favourite, may, has done a lot of work going up and down the country for several years trying to build support, will it prove worthwhile? the tory grassroots decide and who are they? old, white people i guess. more questions than answers here too.

labour, what the feck are this shower up to? i wonder if the members would still support corbyn when he cant win a general election? i think if eagle beats corbyn she would only be a temporary leader.
Report Froggitt June 29, 2016 7:55 PM BST
1,500 words exactly. A-
Report jollyswagman June 29, 2016 7:59 PM BST
1499 too many for bear Cool

sorry all
Report timbuctooth June 29, 2016 8:02 PM BST
jolly, give us a bit of history;
How long lurking?
What were you betting on? Winning?
What are you betting on? Winning?
Report bearcub June 29, 2016 8:07 PM BST
FFS jolly. WTF is all that shyte Angry
Report Henry VIII June 30, 2016 1:12 AM BST
Re the idea that we have less idea about POTUS than Americans:

I didn't follow the arguments in Brexit. Personally I could see arguments for both sides and was unsure. However I knew that if I follow the debates I would mistakenly think that the arguments I agreed with carried more weight with the populous than they did, and would think that the arguments I hated would be rejected more than they were. We all have convictions here, and they can get in the way.

I did do something however that we all can, and many did: follow the polls; have an idea of historical precedent in the relation between such polls and reality; understand that 1.12 was a wtf price in a very close campaign before most had voted let alone had their vote counted.

Therefore we are at no disadvantage with POTUS (although I haven't got into it myself much yet, not much movement atm).
Report Henry VIII June 30, 2016 1:22 AM BST
Jolly why is Trump a charlatan?

I have a broad idea of his aims but I know nothing about him personally.
Report timbuctooth June 30, 2016 5:13 AM BST
GB2 has a `US Election` thread going, on which Jolly has set forward his views.
Report jollyswagman June 30, 2016 10:26 AM BST
sorry for the dissertation.

gove is standing for tory leader, bozo now drifting like a barge.
Report jollyswagman June 30, 2016 11:57 AM BST
bozo is out LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report George Bailey June 30, 2016 4:30 PM BST
Mark Carney saying interest rates will be cut this summer. Lovely irony. Younger remainers helped with mortgages and old brexiters with no mortgages but fixed incomes will get less interest from capital to live on. Love it.
Report timbuctooth October 14, 2016 6:52 AM BST
OK, a few posts that need answering;

Hemsby, not sure if you`ve been following this thread, but I`m entirely `anti-Clinton`, rather than `pro-Trump`. As things have turned out, that`s left me supporting him, but previously I`ve been wanting Cruz, Rubio, even Bernie; ANYONE except her. Personally, I`d be voting for the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson; clearly a life-long dopehead who wants as little governmental interference in our lives as possible. Including legalising cannabis, my kind of politician.


Was pondering how to reply to a couple of other points, when it occurred to me to have a read of the Brexit thread, `EU Jimmy`. Sure enough, I found a couple of posts on there which I think may well be
relevant to this POTUS malarkey.


Henry VIII 24 Jun 16 04:36 
polls are great.
for often creating value by opposing them.

Brexit was pretty much a global one-off event, unprecedented, and the polls were all wrong. Trump/Clinton is the strangest US GE ever, why would the polls be more accurate than they were with Brexit? Particularly as the `embarrassment factor` for the shy Trumpers would be much higher, (FAR HIGHER!!!) than it was for Brexiters.

As for falling for what he market is telling us, let`s remind ourselves of Brexit;

Angela Rebecchi 24 Jun 16 06:13 
Staying In
1.06    £11,680        £130,230
1.07    £3,956        £314,668
1.08    £2,648        £121,722
1.09    £6,230        £355,232
1.10    £5,849        £697,291
1.11    £5,183        £811,180
1.12    £2,235        £1,848,594
1.13    £2,016        £1,187,194
1.14    £3,242        £1,858,230
1.15    £1,338        £1,626,503
1.16    £2,177        £1,182,682
1.17    £3,305        £1,436,152
1.18    £3,380        £1,217,718
1.19    £210        £1,903,832
1.20    £9,679        £751,541

So, the best part of £15,000,000 matched at or below Clinton`s current price. And, what`s worse this was all done as the voting was CLOSING!!! Yes, 1.06 at 10pm that evening, and for chunks. In total, £110,000,000 matched. Every single penny matched was at prices entirely determined by polls yet, in a more extreme situation, we are supposed to believe these polls? Hmmm...



Henry VIII 25 Jun 16 08:25 
"Brexit baffled punters, pundits and fund managers to the very end"
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-predictions-idUSKCN0ZB06R

No need for comment, really, is there?



Forgive the indulgence, but a couple of people have enquired into the state of my book;

timbuctooth 29 Jun 16 17:02 
My `Anyone But Clinton` green would be one of my better wins, and have activated my `max green` strategy, concentrating on bringing the Clinton red down from an unnecessarily greedy `max`, to a currently fairly minor one. I`m not a `level-up` type and, specifically, would have a real problem actively `backing` La Clinton. Not just at 1.3x, but at any price!
Is the market `right` at that price? Who knows but, personally, I don`t believe Specials markets are EVER right, there`s just too many `unknowables`. (which, of course, is why it`s so relatively easy to win!). But, most of us thought the Brexit market was not only wrong for most of the time, but also incredibly slow-moving, ignoring any and all evidence in favour of `Leave`. It was the `sheer disbelief!` factor; a factor which I think is, and has been all along, holding Trump`s price too high. There`s an ever-increasing global  political disillusionment underway, but the self-proclaiming cognoscenti still don`t believe it. Nor, it seems, do markets.



And one last indulgence, but perhaps relevant;

timbuctooth 29 Jun 16 17:15 
Just thought of what I think is a possibly important theory; with bf being not only UK-centered but with the US also banning access, most of the money in the markets won`t be American. It will, to a large degree, be the exact same players who got Brexit so spectacularly wrong. In which case, CHAAAAARRRRRGGGGGE!!!


Finally, ponder this; were you surprised that Trump has a penchant for making advances on women, some of whom don`t appreciate such advances? Didn`t we all already know that he does these things? Ignore the unbelievably biased coverage from the American (and UK!) media, and there`s really nothing to see here with his vt and these women coming out years later. This sort of stuff will be long forgotten when voters are weighing up how important it is when measured against things like Supreme Court Judges, the economy, Obama-care, immigration, etc; not to mention being such an anti-elite, anti-Washington candidate-for-change, that he`s even declared civil war on his own party! Couldn`t make it up, but great fun, nevertheless. 

Nearly a month to go, who knows wtf this mad election campaign will throw up, either against him or her?  Hadn`t changed my book very much for ages, but beginning to have a few nibbles at these prices.



Bullet point; ignore the bollox, Trump ROMPS it, great value.
Report timbuctooth October 14, 2016 6:57 AM BST
FFS!!! Spent so long copying and pasting from this thread, forgot to go to the right thread before posting!
Report mach October 14, 2016 9:55 AM BST
Tim, I wish you and Jimmy savile well

Trump Flirts With Pre-Teen (VIDEO)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRMEDdtStUE

Trump Exposes Trump
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSE-XoVKaXg
Report mach October 14, 2016 9:56 AM BST
Sorry, not Jimmy, should read Trump

sometimes I mix them upTongue Out
Report mach October 14, 2016 9:27 PM BST
Donald Trump: This is Who America Wants for President?

https://youtu.be/VAyuIEq65tk?t=43
Report timbuctooth October 15, 2016 2:18 AM BST
Only slightly unfair, mach! Pretty much in line with the rest of the world`s coverage of him, though.
Report Henry VIII October 15, 2016 4:53 AM BST
It's fantastic that you can leave voice messages here now.

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