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five leaves left
27 Nov 15 21:09
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Date Joined: 24 Dec 05
| Topic/replies: 114,001 | Blogger: five leaves left's blog
Market up. Bosnia back Cool
Pause Switch to Standard View *** The Official 2016 Eurovision...
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Report bearcub May 9, 2016 10:36 PM BST
It just shows the EBU that Russia can't be trusted with hosting the contest
Report bearcub May 9, 2016 10:36 PM BST
Bunch of jackasses
Report Corbyguy May 9, 2016 10:44 PM BST
Mind you i think that with cancelling a jury vote then the replacement jury vote will be be calculated from other Eurovision juries that has voted similairly in the past and just take Russia from the calculation.
Report Corbyguy May 9, 2016 10:45 PM BST
I think that is what they state in the new rules.
Report five leaves left May 9, 2016 10:47 PM BST
yep, that's the rule I believe Corbs. They'll probably do nothing tho
Report Corbyguy May 9, 2016 10:48 PM BST
kick the whole lot out i say Wink
Report five leaves left May 9, 2016 10:54 PM BST
Put Russia in trap 2 as punishment Grin
Report Corbyguy May 9, 2016 10:56 PM BST
And what if they draw 2nd half?
Report Henry VIII May 9, 2016 11:07 PM BST
At one point you could see her name on the score sheet:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuTbuwdNdJc
Report five leaves left May 9, 2016 11:12 PM BST
Just put them 2nd regardless corbs

Is that the right video H?
Report Henry VIII May 9, 2016 11:19 PM BST
That's just the juror.
Report Corbyguy May 9, 2016 11:23 PM BST
Just seen a tweet on Twitter with a video and people replying to the tweet have sent the tweet to various ESC news blogs, SVT and the main Eurovision profile on Twitter so it looks as though everyone and his dog will know about it.
Report Corbyguy May 9, 2016 11:25 PM BST
as they say SKANDAL.
Report five leaves left May 9, 2016 11:28 PM BST
I hope they don't void their votes and replace them with Azer Sad
Report Corbyguy May 9, 2016 11:30 PM BST
Well if they do that then Armenia is fecked.
Report five leaves left May 9, 2016 11:36 PM BST
indeed Sad
I suspect it will just be a slap on the wrists. Very unprofessional but nothing dodgy going on
Report Henry VIII May 9, 2016 11:42 PM BST
Of course Armenia are through, even in the impossibly unlikely event of not getting Russian jury votes.
Report five leaves left May 10, 2016 12:01 AM BST
Hopefully in top spot. Good luck for tomorrow. Time for some kip
Report Henry VIII May 10, 2016 9:26 AM BST
I don't know why I said impossibly unlikely. It's certainly possible. Funnily enough there's nothing in ESC published rules against it. They have secret "green" rules but they may not even have anything there about broadcasting the event as they may not have even considered periscope or the possibility of a jury member being so stupid.
Report bearcub May 10, 2016 9:48 AM BST
Id be amazed if the EBU didn't have a line concerning it. It should be your decision and shouldn't be influenced by outside sources.
Report Corbyguy May 10, 2016 10:11 AM BST
Tweet from EBU "Reports about Russian jury vote video @Eurovision being looked into Further information Tues afternoon #Eurovision"

My guess the jury vote will be discarded and replaced with the televote so the televote will be used for both jury and televote.
Report Corbyguy May 10, 2016 10:22 AM BST
Wiwibloggs: EBU To Investigate Russian Jury Video http://tinyurl.com/j8t6yr3

"In one shot, there’s a glimpse of a jury voting form. The juror is covering her handwritten, but fans have seen notes that mark down Hungary and Moldova and mark up the Netherlands."

"The video continues into the next song, “LoveWave”. Russian-speaking Twitter user @Satine_Danielle says that one of the jurors state that she’ll support Armenia as her husband is Armenian."
Report George Bailey May 10, 2016 11:21 AM BST
Good if jury banned; Russian public more likely to just vote for who they like without any agendas.
Report Corbyguy May 10, 2016 12:16 PM BST
There are lots of people tweeting to the EBU saying to disqualify the participation of Russia this year. Now, that would be completely drastic and the EBU will just ignore those tweets considering this is just about something that a jury did. Now imagine if Russia was disqualified the panic and the backlash it will cause will be monstrous.
Report George Bailey May 10, 2016 12:18 PM BST
I'd be happy
Report Corbyguy May 10, 2016 5:11 PM BST
EBU issues statement about jury voting in Russia http://tinyurl.com/zzjx6v7

"Following constructive talks between EBU and RTR, Russia’s participating broadcaster, RTR proposed to withdraw the respective jury member who produced the video recording. As a consequence, the EBU declared the voting result of the respective judge invalid. The other four judges submitted a valid jury vote. RTR will have the opportunity to provide a replacement judge for the Grand Final on Saturday 14 May."....


So this means i think that one jurors vote will be invalid and the other 4 jurors votes will be accepted to be used for the jury voting.
Report timbuctooth May 10, 2016 6:46 PM BST
Been away a few days, come back to find we`ve had a 34-posts-in-14-years visitor, being completely ignored!

gabs 08 May 16 10:35 
Why so little love for Denmark? Catchiest song in the contest, handsome chaps, and a country with Eurovision pedigree. Unimaginative staging by the looks of it, but 800+/1?!

Forgive them, gabs, they`re a decent bunch, but ever-increasing ESC fever is affecting their manners. Really can`t offer any sensible answer to your question, (I`m clueless at ESC), but do give us another chance!
Report George Bailey May 10, 2016 6:51 PM BST
So the juror voting for Armenia because her hubby is from there is ok? Plain
Report Corbyguy May 10, 2016 6:52 PM BST
I would think that is the case GB.
Report honestcl May 12, 2016 10:29 PM BST
Glad I spotted this before laying Malta to increase my red.

http://www.eurovision.tv/page/news?id=ira_losco_celebrates_malta_as_number_1_in_europe_for_lgbti_equality

Probably best I leave things as they are
Report Henry VIII May 13, 2016 12:03 PM BST
Poor old Czech Republic have been given the worst possible slot they could have been given in semi and final. Must be because of something behind the scenes.
Report Corbyguy May 13, 2016 1:19 PM BST
Its such a shame that the Czech Republic (Chechia) got the no. 2 slot after all these years of trying to qualify in to the final. To me it feels as though the organisers thought its only the Czech Republic (Chechia) so we wont bother about them.
Report stu May 13, 2016 1:41 PM BST
They did same to San Marino when they entered a very good entry previously - slot 2 for those they are not bothered about. It cost them a place in the final when they came 11th semi.
Report five leaves left May 13, 2016 2:25 PM BST
Not a fan of the song but it does seem a little harsh on Czech Rep. Maybe they didn't do great in the semi. Plus there are lots of the favourites to fit into that 1st half
Report five leaves left May 13, 2016 2:28 PM BST
Live feed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MUDvLvfeok

Sweden just on. Still sounds like the best song in the contest. In terms of the one mostly likely to appeal to a pop music buying public
Report five leaves left May 13, 2016 2:29 PM BST
I'd be surprised if Germany doesn't chart very well after the final too
Report five leaves left May 13, 2016 2:29 PM BST
a touch of LDR about it
Report five leaves left May 13, 2016 2:41 PM BST
short break  after  Poland and before Oz. Which is usually a negative
Report Tom_Ato May 13, 2016 3:10 PM BST
coming on after russia in the semi i suspect czech's scraped through
Report Tom_Ato May 13, 2016 3:10 PM BST
hey Figgy Figgy Figgy, oi oi oi!
Report five leaves left May 13, 2016 7:33 PM BST
Stop stalking me Tom Plain
Report Tom_Ato May 13, 2016 9:10 PM BST
look under your bed Figgy Happy
Report five leaves left May 13, 2016 9:54 PM BST
Blimey! It's Zoe Love
Report Corbyguy May 13, 2016 11:28 PM BST
The new voting system can be seen in action from the first dress rehearsal here: https://youtu.be/pFM5Nv2D9oE
Report bearcub May 14, 2016 12:58 AM BST
Cheers Corbs
Report Henry VIII May 14, 2016 8:04 AM BST
Thanks Corby.
Report Corbyguy May 14, 2016 11:45 AM BST
From The Sun:

Eurovision Schlong Contest: The secret fetish porn past of Russian favourite: EXCLUSIVE: Snap which shows naked star holding saw to a woman’s throat rocks Moscow http://tinyurl.com/jxxjdyf

"Sergey Lazarev, 33, is seen sitting naked on a bed while menacingly holding a saw to the throat of a woman handcuffed to a radiator."

“Officials don’t want this photo getting out because it looks so weird and creepy and could scupper their bid.

“Russia has spent an absolute fortune on Sergey, it is really desperate to win this year."
Report Corbyguy May 14, 2016 11:56 AM BST
ESCToday Press Poll: http://tinyurl.com/gudcfol

The final Daily Press Poll was held tonight right after all songs in the jury final were performed. Ukraine was declared as the winner with a total of 99 points.

For the final, each voting member of the press had to give its Top 5 instead of Top 3, awarding 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 points. The full results are as following:

    Ukraine 99
    Australia 91
    Russia 74
    Armenia 55
    Sweden 42
    Bulgaria 24
    Latvia 24
    Israel 18
    France 18
    Serbia 16
    Austria 15
    The Netherlands 9
    Georgia 9
    Spain 8
    Belgium 6
    Czech Republic 4
    Hungary 4
    Italy 4
    United Kingdom 2
    Azerbaijan 2
    Malta 1
    Croatia 0
    Cyprus 0
    Germany 0
    Lithuania
    Poland 0
Report Corbyguy May 14, 2016 12:06 PM BST
From Austria to Sweden

This is the scheduled order of the jury spokespersons tonight. Our journey starts with the hosts of last year's contest Austria, and finishes with this year's hosts Sweden. The order has been worked out through technical consideration and operational logistics, and unlike the last few years no algorithms were used.

All the jury spokespersons will deliver their 12 points In English, with the exception of France who will announce their douze points in French.

Austria - (Vienna) Kati Bellowitsch (Spokesperson since 2011)
Iceland - (Reykjavik) Unnsteinn Manuel Stefansson
Azerbaijan - (Baku) Tural Asadov (Spokesperson in 2015)
San Marino - (San Marino) Irol MC (Jury member 2014)
Czech Republic - (Prague) Daniela Písařovicová
Ireland - (Dublin) Sinead Kennedy
Georgia - (Tblisi) Nina Sublatti (Georgian entrant 2015)
Bosnia & Herzegovina - (Sarajevo) Ivana Crnogorac
Malta - (Valletta) Ben Camille (Presenter national final 2016)
Spain - (Madrid) Jota Abril
Finland - (Helsinki) Jussi-Pekka Rantanen
Switzerland - (Bern) Sebalter (Swiss entrant 2014)
Denmark - (Copenhagen) Ulla Essendrop (Press conference host 2014)
France - (Paris) Elodie Gossuin
Moldova - (Chisinau) Olivia Furtuna (Presenter national finals)
Armenia - (Yerevan) Arman Margaryan (Commentator 2015)
Cyprus - (Nicosia)  Lukas Hamatsos (Presenter national finals and spokesperson)
Bulgaria - (Sofia) Anna Angelova
The Netherlands (Hilversum)  Trintje Oosterhuis (Dutch entrant 2015)
Latvia (Riga) Toms Grevins (Presenter national final)
Israel - (Jerusalem) Ofer Nachshon (Spokesperson since 2009)
Belarus - (Minsk) Uzari (Belarusian entrant 2015)
Germany - (Hamburg) Barbara Schöneberger (Presenter national finals)
Russia - (Moscow) Nyusha
Norway - (Oslo)  Elisabeth Andreassen (Norwegian winner of Eurovision in 1985)
Australia - (Sydney) Lee Lin Chin (Spokesperson in 2015)
Belgium - Brussels) Umesh Vangaver
United Kingdom - (London) Richard Osman
Croatia - (Zagreb) Nevena Rendeli (Presenter national final)
Greece - (Athens) Constantinos Christophorou (Cypriot entrant 1996, 2002, 2005 and spokesperson 2006)
Lithuania - (Vilnius) Ugne Galadauskaite
Serbia - (Belgrade) Dragana Kosjerina
FYR Macedonia - (Skopje) Dijana Gogova
Albana - (Tirana) Andri Xhahu (Commentator and spokesperson since 2012)
Estonia - (Tallinn) Daniel Viinalass (National final entrant 2015)
Ukraine - (Kyiv) Verka Serduchka (Ukranian entrant 2007)
Italy - (Rome) Claudia Andreatti
Poland - (Warsaw) Anna Popek
Slovenia - (Ljubljana) Marjetka Vovk (Slovenian entrant 2015)
Hungary - (Budapest) Csilla Tatár (Presenter national finals and spokesperson 2015)
Montenegro - (Podgorica) Danijel Alibabic (Serbia & Montenegro entrant 2005)
Sweden - (Stockholm) - Gina Dirawi (Presenter national finals)
Report DStyle May 14, 2016 12:07 PM BST
God almighty, so many songs sound exactly the same. Part of the charm was the craziness weirdness of the different counties entries. It has now become completely homogenised; it's as though they've all worked out what wins and they all care about winning.

Anyhoo, Australia seem very short, she can't sing that well and it's slow. Spain seem big at 25-1 for a top 5 finish.
Report DStyle May 14, 2016 12:08 PM BST
*crazy weirdness of the different countries' entries.
Report Corbyguy May 14, 2016 12:11 PM BST
The is NO algorithm being used to determine the running order of the voting this year that was used in previous years to keep the winner from being known until as late as possible.
Report honestcl May 14, 2016 12:14 PM BST
The problem we have is that over half of the songs this year are written by Swedish song writers.   Good in one sense because they're good at it but bad as you say because the variety isn't there.

Then again, the overall standard of the comp is light years ahead of where it was 10 years ago so progress is being made.
Report honestcl May 14, 2016 12:16 PM BST
That's annoying.  A fair chunk of my betting strategy in the last two years was based on that alogrithm basically making it obvious who the winner was. 

I guess they figured 'Russia's won it - no point in trying to disguise it - let's all get to bed because it's a long day tomorrow'
Report Corbyguy May 14, 2016 12:19 PM BST
Well i guess they realised that whoever the jury winner would be known by people figuring it as the algorithm holds the winner back until late as possible so now randomise the voting to make it so that people could not work out who the jury winner will be. Russia may not have won the jury but we will not know if they have or not until the juries give their votes.
Report bearcub May 14, 2016 12:23 PM BST
Are you sure that's the order Corbs, or is it just the order they done it in yesterday?
Report Corbyguy May 14, 2016 12:24 PM BST
That order is from the Eurovision site link here: http://tinyurl.com/zamw7wa
Report Corbyguy May 14, 2016 12:25 PM BST
"From Austria to Sweden
This is the scheduled order of the jury spokespersons tonight. Our journey starts with the hosts of last year's contest Austria, and finishes with this year's hosts Sweden. The order has been worked out through technical consideration and operational logistics, and unlike the last few years no algorithms were used."
Report bearcub May 14, 2016 12:31 PM BST
Cheers Mr Corbs. you're currently 1.92 to be next years Foty. Cool
Report Henry VIII May 14, 2016 12:32 PM BST
Big shame there's no algorithm.

That Sun article has a video of some of Sergey's song and some of a flattering interview with him, both of which will give him a boost over the other countries. Good to see the Sun in the Sergey camp.
Report bearcub May 14, 2016 12:33 PM BST
He has the Scouse vote nailed Crazy
Report Corbyguy May 14, 2016 12:40 PM BST
Nah the Scouse will be rooting for Joe and Jake they like a good ole pub song they do.
Report bearcub May 14, 2016 12:52 PM BST
Spotify figs are on esctracker, Frans doing best, followed by France, Russia,Oz, Spain


On the Viral 50 charts....

UK..        France 15, Spain 29
Belgium..   France 2
Spain..     Bulgaria 10, France 15, Uk 20
Finland..   OZ 8
France..    Bulgaria 42
Ireland..   Bulgaria 7
Lithuan..   Sweden 7
Latvia..   Sweden 35
Malta..     Spain 7
Nethers..   Spain 7
Norway..    France 4, Nethers 14
Poland..    France 8
Sweden..    Georgia 9,Croatia 20, Spain 23, France 25
Report George Bailey May 14, 2016 12:56 PM BST
Henry said eastern europe streams rather than downloads but can't see much evidence of that on spotify...lots of different streaming sites I guess though
Report Henry VIII May 14, 2016 12:57 PM BST
Words being put into my mouth again. I didn't say they stream. I said they download from free servers.
Report George Bailey May 14, 2016 12:58 PM BST
Don't know what the Viral 50 is but Bulgaria doing well there but not on itunes/spotify. Looked easy after last year but seems 12 months is a long time for finding different ways to access music.
Report George Bailey May 14, 2016 12:59 PM BST

May 14, 2016 -- 12:57PM, Henry VIII wrote:


Words being put into my mouth again. I didn't say they stream. I said they download from free servers.


Unmeasurable then?

Report George Bailey May 14, 2016 12:59 PM BST
Don't blame me Henry I hacked bear's dossier on you Plain
Report Henry VIII May 14, 2016 1:01 PM BST
iTunes still important even with western bias.

Dami has overtaken Sergey on it now.
Report George Bailey May 14, 2016 1:04 PM BST
itunes still the gold standard for me
Report George Bailey May 14, 2016 1:05 PM BST
You were right re waiting Henry...likely to be an expensive lesson for me but one mistake I won't repeat
Report bearcub May 14, 2016 1:06 PM BST
To get a top 10 itunes hit in some countries takes 10 copies, it's worthless outside the big download countries
Report Henry VIII May 14, 2016 1:06 PM BST
We're all learning all the time in this game.
Report honestcl May 14, 2016 1:50 PM BST
For the traders amongst you I'll stick my neck on the line and say that Sweden will get off to a flyer tonight.  My last throw of the dice to counteract the likely Russia win. 

Frans nailed the jury final last night and with a load of Swede friendly countries in the first few to vote, I'm confident the 26 will be lower than that for a trade.

Recent years we had a Hungary off to a flyer in 2014 (80 during interval down to 6 after a few votes)
2015 - Serbia down to 11 after first vote having traded way higher
2010 - Denmark famously down to 2.0 after starting with 2 douze points to start having traded in well into double figures for weeks beforehand, before Lena's landslide
Report George Bailey May 14, 2016 1:53 PM BST
Said similar for Italy last year...worked like a dream iirc apart from the market moving too quick for me Sad
Report Corbyguy May 14, 2016 4:15 PM BST
Gavster of ESCTips - Eurovision 2016: Final Betting Preview http://tinyurl.com/hh6hc7n

Make of it what you like.
Report Corbyguy May 14, 2016 4:24 PM BST
Daniel of Sofabet: Eurovision 2016: The grand final http://tinyurl.com/zww6ua3

Again, make of it what you will.
Report Tom_Ato May 14, 2016 5:18 PM BST
the real value right now is with Ukraine at 16s, recent stats and topping the press poll show they are very much in contention. It is likely to have scored highly with juries, add to that their voting allies and narrative and I think this price is massive. Australia will possibly struggle with the televote in the East and although it is a very strong live performance it ain't no Conchita moment. It's Russia or Ukraine for me.
Report timbuctooth May 14, 2016 5:33 PM BST
Nice to see Gavster and Daniel have become very late converts to the charms of Austria. Must have read the `le taxi` thread...
Report armagnac May 14, 2016 5:39 PM BST
what soup says
Report glory hornet May 14, 2016 6:07 PM BST
save  me trawling through loads of pages , final draw anyone ?
Report glory hornet May 14, 2016 6:08 PM BST
sorry , found the draw , but no breaks marked up anyone
Report Corbyguy May 14, 2016 6:11 PM BST
breaks i believe is between 12. Poland and 13. Australia, then between 19. Spain and 20. Latvia.
Report glory hornet May 14, 2016 6:12 PM BST
thanks
Report George Bailey May 14, 2016 6:19 PM BST
May be useful re order and effect

.https://andrewinthekitchen.wordpress.com/2016/05/13/eurovision-song-contest-2016-running-order-and-final-predictions/
Report timbuctooth May 14, 2016 6:24 PM BST
Top two equating to nearly 1/4??? Gotta take`em on.
Report five leaves left May 14, 2016 6:41 PM BST
Not usually a good move to oppose the market on Eurovision. Good luck though. One year it would be nice to see the winner come as a surprise to the market
Report Cider May 14, 2016 6:56 PM BST
Next year would be fine.
Report Petraco May 14, 2016 6:58 PM BST
Is there any 'value' in laying the Ruski's or is this a done deal?

Any possibility that Oz get the "Anyone but Russia" voters?

Mischief
Report Cider May 14, 2016 7:03 PM BST
Most people are expecting Russia to be beaten in the jury vote, and be behind at halfway. This is a new format, so exactly how the market will play out ir is anyone's guess.
Report Petraco May 14, 2016 7:07 PM BST
Okie dokie Cool
Report timbuctooth May 14, 2016 7:21 PM BST
Opposing the possibly informed money has lead to many a red for me, fll. But all they know already is the jury vote, plenty of change possible tonight, rven if only for trading. We`re not guaranteed Sergey won`t faint again, and I`m not really seeing what separates the Australia power ballad from any number of others to justify the price.
Report honestcl May 15, 2016 12:01 AM BST
Tom_Ato

the real value right now is with Ukraine at 16s, recent stats and topping the press poll show they are very much in contention. It is likely to have scored highly with juries, add to that their voting allies and narrative and I think this price is massive. Australia will possibly struggle with the televote in the East and although it is a very strong live performance it ain't no Conchita moment. It's Russia or Ukraine for me.
_______

After months of deliberating whether it would appeal widely enough, it was your post that made me top up on Ukraine and make it a very nice night

Cheers squire.  GrinGrin
Report armagnac May 15, 2016 12:09 AM BST
best soup in town Cool
Report Tom_Ato May 15, 2016 12:15 AM BST
I'm actually crying. I can afford KFC for the next 10 years, anything I want. No more popcorn chicken, from now on only chicken strips.
Report Henry VIII May 15, 2016 12:52 AM BST
Nice one Tom.
Report George Bailey May 15, 2016 1:24 AM BST
Yes excellent call Tom
Report Corbyguy May 15, 2016 7:38 PM BST
Denmark: Incorrect 12 points to Ukraine. http://eurovoix.com/2016/05/15/denmark-incorrect-12-points-to-ukraine/

Australia should have got the 12 points and Ukraine should have got 0. The lead of Ukraine over Australia instead of being 23 points would now be 9 points. Nothing is mentioned as of yet on the official Eurovision jury/televote split of full ranking page as of yet.
Report Corbyguy May 15, 2016 7:48 PM BST
If the voting system had not had been changed for the final and was still the same as last years combined voting then the winner would have been Australia followed by Ukraine and then Russia according to this result i found on the internet: http://imgur.com/dZvHOl2
Report Angela Rebecchi May 16, 2016 5:50 PM BST

May 14, 2016 -- 5:18PM, Tom_Ato wrote:


the real value right now is with Ukraine at 16s, recent stats and topping the press poll show they are very much in contention. It is likely to have scored highly with juries, add to that their voting allies and narrative and I think this price is massive. Australia will possibly struggle with the televote in the East and although it is a very strong live performance it ain't no Conchita moment. It's Russia or Ukraine for me.


Great work Tom_Ato. Spot on.

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