Eddie Redmayne for best actor at the Oscars

Nick cage played retards in every film and never won one

Eddie might have the upper hand as he's playing a mentally retarded character

I'm guessing you have not watched the movie

leaving las vegas

Feb 4, 2015 -- 12:22AM, mach wrote:

Eddie might have the upper hand as he's playing a mentally retarded characterI'm guessing you have not watched the movie

watched it.  average film.  Great performance by eddie. he held the film together no doubt.

I agree that the Pfa are usually sh1te at picking the Oscar winner

what i don't get is why redmayne goes from 2-1 to 1-2 after the pfa awards. the pfa awards have never been historically the best indicator of who the oscar winner will be!

Suarez won it last year and got a move to Barcelona so it's a pretty good guide imo

magical ice festival

SAG winner has a strong record of going on to win the Oscar, thus the radical move from 2-1 to 1-2 after he beat Keaton there.

Never watch any of these movies but sounds like this role is very obvious Oscar bait.  Still might be worth a lay after he wins Bafta if the odds get sub 1.35.  I think 1.50-1.60 is about fair heading into the Oscar ceremony, winning Bafta shouldn't mean a whole lot considering Bafta usually take care of their own when they can.

sorry pfa should read sga. lol.  The sga awards have the worst record record for the pre oscars event,  although recently they have been ok.  i remember when johnny deep won the sga for the pirates of the carribean film roll (wtf!) and won nought at the oscars...also remember when russell crowe missed out on an sga for gladiator then won at the oscars.  eddie will win the bafta, cos the baftas always favor brits,  then go sub 1.2 .  imo keaton will win it because he is a highly respected actor in hollywood and recognition is due, the majority of goldderby experts even predict a keaton tight win.  a 1.2 lay is due when it's due .  this will be like mcilroy at the spoty awards all over again imo

Sometimes I read a post and think,I can't actually be arsed

dylsexia is not to be laughed at

#luaghed

the dga awards were  the biggest giveaway last night as they share the same voters for the Oscars.  the sgas are not important and never will be.  birdman thumped 1.10 fav boyhood at the dgas.  birdman and keaton have got top be massive favs now to pick up those golden badboys

Why are the SGAs and Im assuming you mean SAGs no good at predicting the OSCARs Greed?

forgive my apple spellcheck.  the judges on the dgas are EXACTLY the same as the ones on the oscars.  doesn't matter if the odds are 1.01 or 100-1  birdman an d keaton are going to pick up the oscars.  we saw hot odds on fav beyonce lose to beck at the grammys and 1.1 boyhood hood gubbed at the dgas,  and preetty sure you'll see more upsets at the oscars

Hi not sure if youre fishing or not? The Directors Guild vote on who should qualify for Best director (though not exclusivly) at the Osacars they also vote for the winner of the DGA. The Actors guild vote on who should qualify for Best actor at the Oscars they also vote for the winner of the SAG. When all the Guilds have decided the Oscar nominees, members from all Guilds then vote for the winner of the Oscar.
The actors Guild is by far the biggest Guild and as such voting Bloc at the Oscars IIRC there are circa 3,000 members, the Directors guild is one of the smaller guilds with 300 members, there are somewhere near 6,000 members in total. So its the actors who pretty much decide the Oscars. When they decided that Ben Aflek (an ex-actor) should have won the DGA for which the Directors hadnt nominated him they voted for him en-bloc for the Directing Oscar.
The 3,000 members of the SAG have already voted Eddie Redmayne as their lead actor so Michael Keaton has to get the majority of the other guilds onside.With the Directors guild having chosen Alejandro etc for the DGA it is likely that other guild members will take their lead and vote for him but as ever it is not certain.
So there you are Eddie had the support of over 50% of 3,000 voters whereas Alejandro won a vote of over 50% of 300. I think that puts Eddie in the strnger position.

funnily enough the odds in america are completely different: Boyhood – 8/13, redmayne - evens

The 3,000 members of the SAG have already voted Eddie Redmayne as their lead actor so Michael Keaton has to get the majority of the other guilds onside.With the Directors guild having chosen Alejandro etc for the DGA it is likely that other guild members will take their lead and vote for him but as ever it is not certain.
So there you are Eddie had the support of over 50% of 3,000 voters whereas Alejandro won a vote of over 50% of 300. I think that puts Eddie in the strnger position.

tell me how many of those SAG voters are eligible for votes at the Oscars?  I think you know the answer to that.  You'll find all DGA voters are eligle to vote at the Oscars btw.

Feb 9, 2015 -- 10:54PM, GREEDISGOOD wrote:

funnily enough the odds in america are completely different: Boyhood – 8/13, redmayne - evens

Stop posting absolute bollox

fraid not. check out goldderby

Seriously? Could you be any dumber

Just back anyone playing anyone disabled.....hth

I don't want to lose all my Mike Tindall lay winnings, so I'll see what MPSE Golden Reel Awards happens over there.  I;ve already layed Boyhood at well below sub 2s and redmayne today.  Playing it smart

Playing it smart   

laying sub 1.9 favs this year in specials has been good to me.  Katie Hop, Bullard,  Tindall .  I took 'em all out.

Name me a winner who hasn't traded sub 1.9 ya muppet

that's why I layed them sub 1.9 ' ya muppet',,,

and won

I used to think you were just fishing

Now i realise you're just plain dumb

oh deary me.

#dreary

well well, i saw jupiter ascending over the weekend and i am sure full members of the oscar voting panel must of seen it too.  in short redmayne is frankly laughable.  after giving an outstanding performance in the hawking film, he's gone to the bottom of the pile with this latest performance.  just goes to show you need a toff to play a toff genius in a film.

This is the time of the year I wade in and pick up. Very similar to a few years ago with Meryl Streep and Viola Davis. Davis was expected to win Best Actress but Streep hadn't won for 25 years...Streep won and so did I. Keaton has never won an Oscar and his time is due. The Oscars are about politics, not performances (Davis' performance was better than Streep's). Redmayne has won the SAG and statistics 'tell' us he will win. Don't fall into that trap. If you're heavy into Redmayne, get some on Keaton around 3's and save your blushes.

http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/oscars/oscars-2015-votes-are-actually-cast-by-hollywood-house-maids-barry-norman-claims-10049635.html

it;s quite close smellthecoffee.  i think after watching jupiter ascending, it 60-40 favours keaton.  They always say 'With choice voting for Oscar nominations, passion wins'. Ignoring the odds on redmayne (because most of the time they are wrong in award markets, e.g. beyonce was a 1.3 fav for a grammy album last week and boyhood was a 1.1 fav at the dgas -both lost) you may be right about keaton, he;s done a significant amount for hollywood, recognition is probably due.

stc, also Birdman has about the same chance as Keats for best picture.  Ignoring the odds again on birdman it has an outstanding chance.  The DGAs as I said before are  a total giveaway.  with 15,000 dga members accounting for under 400 full academy members in turn accounting for a massive 6-7 % of the total academy votes (SGAs has around 2-3% of the total vote)  its almost certain they are in love with Birdman and aware of Keaton's outstanding acting performances.

i think the academy are more likely to favour an American winner

also despite his great performance Redmayne just seems and looks far too young to win.

Keaton  around $4 is back able for me........
I've seen both films Redmayne is great but an easier role the keatons
Anyway it's all about the old togger voters.... 
Keaton has been around the block and there should be a segment of voters
That want to reward him.....   Are there enough to get him over the line?
I think he is a fair chance and $4 is well overs

Birdman best original screenplay at $2.30 is my other bet

gold derby have put on a public vote for best actor (6 days ago). 11000 people have voted (a lot of people).  keaton thumps the lot.

https://polldaddy.com/poll/8654506/?msg=commentAdd#comment2137250

http://www.nola.com/movies/index.ssf/2015/02/oscars_poll_2015_who_do_you_th.html

http://www.azcentral.com/story/entertainment/movies/2015/02/18/poll-best-actor-oscars/23640273/

there are more poll websites over the past few days with Keaton gaining significant momentum.

all the 'experts' will vote for redmayne, but the normal majority will almost certainly vote for keaton, given his popularity with Batman and Bettlejuice.

i think keats is an absolute bank job at 3-1. Redmayne has thrown away his chance as serious actor in Jupiter Ascending.  i'm going to my local bookie to get 500 on.

the oscars is a popularity contest,  keats will win.

just stuck 450 on this morning on keats. 3-1 is a gift.

That's a lot of bottle tops

innit...prob too many, but it;s money I won from the NBA the past few weeks.  If he loses you can back on here take the pi$$, but I wouldn;t be so sure.

the average age demographic of oscar voters is 63 and 94% white.  they don;t tend to favour young people (di caprio. judy garland in oz) or black people (viola davis,eddie murphy, foxx in django, etc) UNLESS the performance was truly oustanding.  the voting as already finished last week.

Is Redmayne black

lol. .he's young, hasn't earnt his chops yet.  might be a one hit wonder

redmayne would be the youngest ever winner of the best actor oscar and a british one at that... that seriously counts against him

I think this is much closer than the odds suggest

another reason to bet on keaton who i agree is massive value in what looks like a 2 horse race

I actually don;t think it will be a close race.it's 60-40 favoring keaton. Redmayne is 33 , the youngest actor is Adrien Brody at 29.

i checked the recent American polls over 8 websites and keaton is averaging 50% of total American votes.  really should of backed the second fav Meyrl Streep last year, as all polls suggested a clear victory for her, but didn't

The fact that she never won has probably passed you by

she won it alright.  won it by an absolute mile.  might not of been last year though.

she gets nominated and wins so many times, it;s hard to keep up. haha

Reckon citizen four is worth potting in best
Doc. Feature...

$1.28 fav for a doco that is pretty much
A pro Edward snowden show...

Even in liberal Hollywood there will be voters
That think snowden is a crunt and traitor..

Worth risking for a low downside ...
The feel good salt of the earth as my
Best roughie at 60's

a bit risky bet imo.  Keaton is more of a certainty.

Big hero 6 is worth a punt for best animated

If you don't think Citizenfour will win I'm guessing the next in line is Virunga.  Did a ton of advertising and saving planet/animals good theme for a winner. 

Big Hero 6 around 4's not a bad bet, seems pretty close with the Dragon movie. 

Not certain Interstellar gets Visual effects, think the price there is a little off.  Interstellar picked up 4-5 below the line nominations but really don't think there's any real passion for the film to garner it those automatic prestige votes that some winners have gotten (Like when Hugo beat the First Apes movie here).  Apes like Virunga spent money on advertising and will try to grab the oscar, Guardians isn't impossible either.

have no idea about best animation.  i saw big hero 6 and that was a v good film.  it's not about what we think, it's about the feelings of the 6000 oscar voters - an average age at 63, who were brought up on classic disney animation.

http://www.nola.com/movies/index.ssf/2015/02/oscars_2015_poll_who_do_you_th.html

i see HTYD2 is way ahead in the polls. not by much though at 40% and because of the lego movie.  Anything near enough 50% is adead cert.   you may be right laying HTYD2 but I;m already quite deep in Keaton, so no more bets now.

Director -Linklater
Animated Short= Feast looks a wobbly fav backed The Dam Keeper
Cinematography- biggest bet of night on Birdman
Editing - Boyhood
Foreign Language - Ida
Live Action Short - taking on fav with Pavanah and The Butter Lamp
Make Up and Hair -Grand budapest
Score -Theory Of Everything
Orig Screenplay - Budapest
Adapted Screenplay - backed Whiplash but big drifter, might have to write that one off
Sound Editing - American Sniper
Sound Mixing -Whiplash
Best Film - Birdman small

big call on cinematography, its 1.01 to back

its not, but it should be

1.07 now, nice

not much totty on the red carpet, parade of skeletons