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five leaves left
12 Dec 14 12:19
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Date Joined: 24 Dec 05
| Topic/replies: 117,126 | Blogger: five leaves left's blog
Market up on here now

Heather Mills preparing to take The Jump
Paul McCartney’s former wife is in the frame to join Mike Tindall on Channel 4’s winter sports reality show in early 2015

Heather Mills will soon be confirmed as a contestant for the next series of the The Jump, according to Channel 4 sources.
The ex-wife of former Beatle Paul McCartney, who lost her left leg below the knee in 1993 following an accident involving a police motorcycle, is expected to be named in the show's line-up as early as tomorrow.
Mills, who divorced McCartney in 2008, is a keen skier who has won medals for for the British Disabled Ski Team.
She was ranked 28th in the world in slalom and in line to compete at this year's Sochi Winter Olympics before leaving the British team at the end of 2013 after an alleged row with an International Paralympic Committee [IPC] official. The IPC had ruled that a new ski boot she was using had not been ratified by the committee.
But even for someone as accomplished on the snow as Mills, the show is likely to represent a tough challenge, especially when it comes to the live ‘jump-offs’ which pit the two lowest scorers from the individual challenges against each other on the ski jumps.
Other events in the competition include high speed skating, the giant slalom and bobsleigh.
Former rugby player and husband of Zara Phillips, Mike Tindall, is the first celebrity to be confirmed for next year’s show which will be filmed in Austria.
Also rumoured to be included in the line-up is Sally Bercow, the wife of the Speaker of the House of Commons who has previously appeared on Big Brother.
Pause Switch to Standard View *** The Jump 2015 ***
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Report five leaves left February 9, 2015 9:38 PM GMT
We know what happened Confused
Report Henry VIII February 9, 2015 9:38 PM GMT
I don't have a opinion on today as I didn't watch it properly and haven't had a penny in the market but just thinking about the next time: They don't have to actively manage it if it's not worthwhile... apart from just suspending 20 mins before the end of the final. Or whatever time it was.
Report GeorgeBrush February 9, 2015 9:41 PM GMT
Simple enough suspension 20 mins before end of each show. No doubt someone has been scooping up a few quid on eliminations too
Report Cider February 9, 2015 9:41 PM GMT
Can't practically have betting ir on a recorded (or delayed transmission) show. It's a pity, but the reality of the situation.
Report GeorgeBrush February 9, 2015 9:42 PM GMT
Fair point. If you cannot get the market fair, it's not worth having anyway is it?
Report Henry VIII February 9, 2015 9:43 PM GMT

Feb 9, 2015 -- 9:41PM, Cider wrote:


Can't practically have betting ir on a recorded (or delayed transmission) show. It's a pity, but the reality of the situation.


Why not on delayed transmission? There's betting on BB ir. Just with a suspension to overlap the delay.

Report George Bailey February 9, 2015 9:44 PM GMT

Feb 9, 2015 -- 9:38PM, five leaves left wrote:


We know what happened


ok I won't watch Grin

Report George Bailey February 9, 2015 9:45 PM GMT
...but Davies might have been the insider Shocked
Report GeorgeBrush February 9, 2015 9:45 PM GMT
Henry didn't but he knows all about it ;)
Report Henry VIII February 9, 2015 9:45 PM GMT

Feb 9, 2015 -- 9:44PM, George Bailey wrote:


Feb  9, 2015 --  9:38PM, five leaves left wrote:We know what happenedok I won't watch


Don't be too proud to admit it if you misheard George.

Report George Bailey February 9, 2015 9:46 PM GMT
The Louise H jump has live commentary as has both Davies and the other guy.
Report Cider February 9, 2015 9:46 PM GMT
On bb the voting is live.

How can you bet ir on something that happened 20 minutes ago Grin The market would still be open when people got eliminated, fallen over etc.
Report George Bailey February 9, 2015 9:47 PM GMT
I'm not Henry will post it here
Report Henry VIII February 9, 2015 9:47 PM GMT

Feb 9, 2015 -- 9:45PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:


Henry didn't but he knows all about it ;)


More than you George anyway Wink

Didn't watch or bet and still managed to have a better book at close than you lot.

Report George Bailey February 9, 2015 9:48 PM GMT
Watching the show smacks of professionalism
Report Cider February 9, 2015 9:48 PM GMT
The events are mostly recorded as well. As I say it's a pity, but a long way from being practical.
Report Henry VIII February 9, 2015 9:49 PM GMT

Feb 9, 2015 -- 9:46PM, Cider wrote:


On bb the voting is live.How can you bet ir on something that happened 20 minutes ago  The market would still be open when people got eliminated, fallen over etc.


Exactly like BB then, the market is suspended before the real time results are known. But still open when people "fall over" etc.

Report George Bailey February 9, 2015 9:50 PM GMT
"and I suspect he will surprise us right to the very end". Definitely felt like it was added after. The other guy sounded like he was reading from a script. I took it in running he had won anyway.
Report GeorgeBrush February 9, 2015 9:53 PM GMT

Feb 9, 2015 -- 9:47PM, Henry VIII wrote:


Feb  9, 2015 --  9:45PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:Henry didn't but he knows all about it ;)More than you George anyway Didn't watch or bet and still managed to have a better book at close than you lot.


Laugh

You always do ;)

Report five leaves left February 9, 2015 10:01 PM GMT

Feb 9, 2015 -- 9:50PM, George Bailey wrote:


"and I suspect he will surprise us right to the very end". Definitely felt like it was added after. The other guy sounded like he was reading from a script. I took it in running he had won anyway.


There was no money to take then Plain

Report George Bailey February 9, 2015 10:07 PM GMT
No but having watched The Bridge and The Killing we need to get the details right to see the bigger picture Wink
Report George Bailey February 9, 2015 10:10 PM GMT
I'm sending my dossier to the Crime Prosecution Service Plain
Report five leaves left February 9, 2015 10:11 PM GMT
The details are pretty clear. Someone put up over 500 to lay Tindall @ 5 not long before the ad break
It could have been a mistake until someone put up 900 to back Joey at around evens
I don't think he went odds against again
Report bearcub February 9, 2015 10:17 PM GMT
Subtlety not their strong point
Report George Bailey February 9, 2015 10:19 PM GMT
Yes clearly inside info but it could have been anyone in the crowd....I'm going for a free holiday next year
Report five leaves left February 9, 2015 10:21 PM GMT
I suspect their might be suspensions next year
Report GeorgeBrush February 9, 2015 10:21 PM GMT
I'll give you one for getting the wrong there
Report five leaves left February 9, 2015 10:22 PM GMT
lol #spellingpolice****off
Report five leaves left February 9, 2015 10:23 PM GMT
I can't remember any strange moves last year, though tbf Joe Mc was always a 1.1 shot to beat that useless Donal
Report George Bailey February 9, 2015 10:25 PM GMT
Donal the hard man Chelsea Headhunter? Tindall was as camp as Christmas...Louis Spence butcher.
Report GeorgeBrush February 9, 2015 10:26 PM GMT
Donal jumped 17.5 m ;)
Report GeorgeBrush February 9, 2015 10:27 PM GMT
But iirc he was carrying an injury in the final
Report bearcub February 9, 2015 10:31 PM GMT
How many runners can you see in the Voice market fig?
Report five leaves left February 9, 2015 10:32 PM GMT
I remember him just plopping off the end in the final
Report five leaves left February 9, 2015 10:32 PM GMT
I can't see any bear. I don't have the market open Mischief
Report bearcub February 9, 2015 10:33 PM GMT
Brushy will tell me
Report five leaves left February 9, 2015 10:33 PM GMT
Just refreshed and looked. 28
Report bearcub February 9, 2015 10:34 PM GMT
Helpdesk are telling me there's 36 but i only see 28 too Plain
Report timbuctooth February 9, 2015 10:35 PM GMT
Nobody`s beaten the first impression I had of Lucy, the Irish Opera singer, and Howard, both from the first show, I think.
Report timbuctooth February 9, 2015 10:37 PM GMT
I thought you meant `give us your shortlist, fll` rather than literally!
Report bearcub February 9, 2015 10:38 PM GMT
They've added them to sportsbook but not exchange Angry
Report GREEDISGOOD February 9, 2015 10:42 PM GMT
thankgod tindall lost.  got my steve o losses back and much more.  time to set some massive lays at the oscars in a few weeks
Report five leaves left February 9, 2015 10:42 PM GMT
Laugh they always make that mistake bear
Report bearcub February 9, 2015 10:43 PM GMT
ridiculous when they won't even lay them
Report five leaves left February 9, 2015 10:45 PM GMT

Feb 9, 2015 -- 10:35PM, timbuctooth wrote:


Nobody`s beaten the first impression I had of Lucy, the Irish Opera singer, and Howard, both from the first show, I think.


Howard my only bet. I really liked his voice. Especially during the 1st part of the song

Report bearcub February 9, 2015 10:45 PM GMT
I don't think he appreciates it when i end my tweet with a kiss Love
Report GeorgeBrush February 9, 2015 10:45 PM GMT
Anyone asked if that is gonna happen on Xf?
Report five leaves left February 9, 2015 10:45 PM GMT

Feb 9, 2015 -- 10:43PM, bearcub wrote:


ridiculous when they won't even lay them


They will. Just not to us

Report bearcub February 9, 2015 10:46 PM GMT
You've got fingers intcha
Report five leaves left February 9, 2015 10:46 PM GMT

Feb 9, 2015 -- 10:45PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:


Anyone asked if that is gonna happen on Xf?


You'd hope so. Maybe BGT too. Both much bigger markets and therefore should be much more activity

Report five leaves left February 9, 2015 10:47 PM GMT
As long as no one complains  Wink
Report bearcub February 9, 2015 10:47 PM GMT
Bails always gets layed Plain
Report five leaves left February 9, 2015 10:48 PM GMT
Not sure how. I imagine anyone showing a profit on the exchange was immediately restricted
Report bearcub February 9, 2015 10:48 PM GMT
Exactly Wink Silly
Report five leaves left February 9, 2015 10:49 PM GMT
Wink
Report timbuctooth February 9, 2015 10:49 PM GMT
Yep, Howard the best voice. Andrea won it from nowhere, with some `angelic`  type thing as her last song. Just suspect Lucy might be able to do the  same.
Report George Bailey February 9, 2015 10:50 PM GMT

Feb 9, 2015 -- 10:47PM, bearcub wrote:


Bails always gets layed


Bails always wins...get it right Angry

Report bearcub February 9, 2015 10:50 PM GMT
They've added them now, a kiss always works Love
Report bearcub February 9, 2015 10:51 PM GMT
Problem for Howard will be getting to lives, he's in a strong group
Report mach February 9, 2015 10:54 PM GMT
I missed the show, is it worth watching?

Joey made it  break even for meSad not watching probably saved me a few pounds
Report five leaves left February 9, 2015 10:57 PM GMT
Not unless you want to see that annoying gimp Essex win

I managed to lay some Tindall at odds on after his rather lame 1st effort, so it was worth watching
Report five leaves left February 9, 2015 10:59 PM GMT
I'm pretty sure Louise H jumped further than him in the 1st round but as we've seen throughout the series the measuring has looked very iffy
Report GeorgeBrush February 9, 2015 11:00 PM GMT
I've yet to even hear an explanation of the rules on the air jump
Report George Bailey February 9, 2015 11:02 PM GMT
The woman who spreads her legs the widest wins
Report GeorgeBrush February 9, 2015 11:02 PM GMT
Your missus then Cool
Report five leaves left February 9, 2015 11:03 PM GMT
I thought it was measured at the lowest point and Essex had his skis pointing down. Very strange
Report five leaves left February 9, 2015 11:04 PM GMT
1st ever TOWIE winner?Sad
Report GeorgeBrush February 9, 2015 11:04 PM GMT
Ringers get a free pass
Report mach February 9, 2015 11:05 PM GMT
GBLaugh
Report bearcub February 9, 2015 11:06 PM GMT
Shocked
Report GeorgeBrush February 9, 2015 11:07 PM GMT
What did you think holy grail meant?
Report George Bailey February 9, 2015 11:07 PM GMT

Feb 9, 2015 -- 11:02PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:


Your missus then


Cheers mate...keep her busy when the specials are on Wink

Report GeorgeBrush February 9, 2015 11:08 PM GMT
Your whole family is special Silly
Report George Bailey February 9, 2015 11:09 PM GMT
I meet their needs Wink
Report bearcub February 9, 2015 11:09 PM GMT
Cry
Report George Bailey February 9, 2015 11:09 PM GMT
...balcony and all Laugh
Report bearcub February 9, 2015 11:11 PM GMT
I look forward to the twitpics Cool
Report mach February 9, 2015 11:13 PM GMT
HG was  guessed at as Huge Green before, Never thought of Huge GashShocked
Report George Bailey February 9, 2015 11:13 PM GMT
Anticipation is 99% of pleasure
Report George Bailey February 9, 2015 11:14 PM GMT

Feb 9, 2015 -- 11:13PM, mach wrote:


HG was  guessed at as Huge Green before, Never thought of Huge Gash


Blimey she has been busy

Report GeorgeBrush February 9, 2015 11:30 PM GMT
Just realised, did nobody go off the big jump in competition? Wusses
Report zwaxxob February 10, 2015 10:01 AM GMT
I've emailed Betfair to investigate. This shouldn't happen (although I don't think it's Betfair's fault)

Please could someone investigate some odd betting patterns on The Jump last night. I know a delay of a few seconds is normal (and that Betfair quote there may be delays in transmission which cover this), but from the betting patterns it looks like someone knew the result about 20 minutes before the the final jumps were shown on TV and were betting on it which seems pretty unfair to me. I'm not saying Betfair have done anything wrong here, but the big picture is very dodgy, so it would be good if someone could look into this market -someone has made a lot of money "betting" on an event that they already knew the result of
Report zwaxxob February 10, 2015 11:04 AM GMT
I just got a response back, they are investigating the market. We might not hear anything back for the reasons stated below, but they are looking at it (and that's all I asked)

"Rest assured, the team will be looking at the patterns traded on this market and details may be shared with the relevant sporting regulator if we think it’s justified.

Unfortunately I can’t be too specific about any findings we may make or action we might take. If we did find something was wrong and either made it public or gave the details of it to a Betfair user, we’d be in danger of prejudicing any external investigation that might follow.

On the other hand, if we don’t find anything wrong and go back to a user with that information, we’re effectively saying that if they raise another query in the future and we don’t similarly get back to them, then there’s something concerning in the hypothetical betting activity in question.

In other words, if something’s brought to our attention (as you’ve done here), we’ll look into it, but can’t tell you the outcome of any internal investigation. Sorry if this isn’t quite satisfactory, but it’s necessary on the grounds stated above.
Report GREEDISGOOD February 10, 2015 11:46 AM GMT
clearly irregular betting patterns.you can see on the forums the heats were done days in advance and the 'live jumps' hours in advance.  I am really hoping they won't void my Mike Tindall lay.
Report GREEDISGOOD February 10, 2015 11:50 AM GMT
i might have won money on this, but i got to say it is unfair to bet on someone when they have already been knocked out.  wish i mopped up on joey though.
Report vin2385 February 10, 2015 2:27 PM GMT
"The show runs with a fifteen-minute delay, which is live in broadcasting terms, but means they can deal with any... incidents"

http://www.radiotimes.com/news/2015-02-05/10-reasons-the-jump-is-so-much-better-this-year
Report bearcub February 10, 2015 2:58 PM GMT
Cheers vin
Report whatdifference February 10, 2015 6:15 PM GMT
my account manager just phoned me and they are voiding the market shortly.
Report whatdifference February 10, 2015 6:50 PM GMT
well just last nights nonsense , not the whole thing obviously
Report tashkent terror February 10, 2015 8:34 PM GMT
They've voided the market from 20:39:28....just got an e-mail

Can't believe this...my lay of Joey Essex at 4.4 was matched at 20:39 yet it's been declared a winner (hence i've lost!).

Is it possible to find out how many seconds after 20:39 my bet was matched?
Report mach February 10, 2015 10:01 PM GMT
The correct result, for market confidence and liquidity it is wrong to allow cheats to prosper.
Report five leaves left February 10, 2015 10:26 PM GMT
I tend to agree with mach. There are always crazy twist and turns in specials. Sometimes you get bitten by them. Other times you get lucky
Betting knowing the result is a different matter though and it seems a reasonable decision to me
Report bearcub February 10, 2015 10:31 PM GMT
Plain
Report five leaves left February 10, 2015 10:34 PM GMT
Grouchy old bear Silly
Report bearcub February 10, 2015 11:12 PM GMT
Cool
Report GeorgeBrush February 11, 2015 11:24 AM GMT

Feb 10, 2015 -- 8:34PM, tashkent terror wrote:


They've voided the market from 20:39:28....just got an e-mailCan't believe this...my lay of Joey Essex at 4.4 was matched at 20:39 yet it's been declared a winner (hence i've lost!).Is it possible to find out how many seconds after 20:39 my bet was matched?


The price joey was trading at legitimately of course. I don't know how they decided upon a time, probably from when the 500 lay on Tindall went down

Curiously, they didn't seem to be backing joey until a few minutes later. I assumed Tindall had crashed out and hence wasn't going to win

Report five leaves left February 11, 2015 11:55 AM GMT
I'm guessing now we know there was a 15 minute delay, the result was announced 'live' on the show at 20.54.39
Report five leaves left February 11, 2015 11:55 AM GMT
#20.54.28
Report bearcub February 11, 2015 12:27 PM GMT
I was watching on C4+1 so i'm going to give them a ring when i've had lunch
Report Cider February 11, 2015 4:10 PM GMT
There was more than £500 up for Mike, fwiw. Over 4 figures. Nearly £2K got matched @5.0.
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