***Eurovision 2015 - road to the Wiener Stadthalle***

Thanks. Laddies was the only one I could see doing voting. Unibet used to do it but they dont have it this year.

Thank you so much for putting this list up.  Been vowing to get this part of my process bang on and finally I'm in the right place at the right time.

The doubts are over.  Sweden wins and IT'S GONNA BE A MANS-SLIDE!! 

Lump on everybody and get 150% return on your investment.

Plenty of reasons but you only really need to look at the last three countries voting - 30 points minimum right there.

Other factors in Sweden's favour are the stuff we've known for three months but the fact Denmark and Finland not there to absorb some points = Sweden comfortable win.

The voting order pretty much tells us Russia hasnt won so I'msurprised tostill see it sdostrong in the win market. Only reason I can see is traders expecting Russia to take an early lead and cash in.
My first conclusion was sweden win also honestcl but imo it still leaves an Italy win open. Thats putting asidemy thoughts on the song and purely working on the voting order

For Belgium supporters this morning drift tells you what you need to know..

Sorry my space bar is fooked hope that still is intelligible^^

Italy drift has begun...surprised its taken so long.

People will still be euphoric and manically voting for Russia when Italy are on.

I've worked out what will happen votes wise...fasten your seat belts we are in for a bumpy night. Setting my betting traps...where's the devil emoticon gone

Found it

Come into my parlour said the spider to the fly

Bexley - I thought same re. Russia.  Just came back to laptop having made decision to 'Back to Lay' and I see others have done the same.  That's Plan A out the window.

I suppose Plan B is just plunge on Sweden having kept it level all along.  It's favourite for a reason and with the doubts out the way I see no reason it won't romp it Loreen style.

For people who like longshots you can turn the MANS-SLIDE into more money if you fancy him to beat Loreen's total at 6/1 or the real big shot of beating Rybak's 387 at 14/1.  Loreen total is within reach I think - don't think it's possible to catch Rybak though with 39 votes to pick up points from.

Timbuctooth

You were kind enough to indulge me with the giant lay of Germany for £2.  £5 money from neighbour at 700 on Greece if you want it. 

As host of the Eurovision party down our street, I'm now the bookie as well for people - so said I'd get them a good price. 

Anyone want it??

And if you want to back the winner, back Russia.

Looking at the 1st 3 countries to announce. Their pts last year

Sweden 3, 7, 10
Russia 0, 5, 0

There was only £2 up, but I`ve laid it for your friend.

Money for Golden Boy top 10

Loreen got 18 maximums, Conchita 13. Mans is even money to get 8 or more - albeit from 39 countries. Think there were 42 for Loreen.

People forgetting that Norway are a Scandinavian country

I can't help thinking that the odds affect the voters??? If Sweden were much bigger odds we wouldn't be looking at them in the same light. The odds make you think it's a much better song. Let's face it, it's not the best song by miles is it like the odds suggest??? Norway doesn't deserve such big odds, and don't get me started on Georgia & Armenia!

sheppy123 23 May 15 12:33 
I can't help thinking that the odds affect the voters???

Interesting phenomena, and 100% correct There have been studies, examining the `flock` mentality amongst gamblers. Proven beyond doubt.

Baaaaaaaaaaaaa

Definitely true but in Eurovision there is too much insider money imho for the market not to be respected. What you are saying is definitely true for cases such as Rory winning SPOTY (1.7 into 1.11 before votes opened!), Verne Troyer, Joey Essex etc being given much higher chances by lots of gamblers based on price.

Exactly. Also shows that the contrarian approach, against the sheep, is the easiest way to win long term. Which is convenient for me, as I`m a contrary bast@rd.

^^^ to bear

And who can forget Leah McFall, also into 1.1x iirc!

live feed of the dress rehearsal right now. No pictures but sound only: http://escxtra.com/live/

The difference is where information has already taken place, which inevitably leaks. Of course, nobody knows the extent of such leaks or how much if affects a strong market. If the voting declaration order is based on the juries, plenty of people will know the score. Not to mention semi final results.

corbyguy, you could of chosen a better username...you bring an air of romance/dating to the forum

UK at 4.5 to finish last surely worth a lay? Song is shocking but it's different. It won't win but it's not last place worthy

Try this experiment... Get someone that hasn't got a clue what's going on with the ESC and play them two songs...

Heroes & Warrior

Then ask them to write down the odds they think they should be???

I bet it's no where near 2.5 & 400

There's no justice in this world!

Funnily enough from my straw poll of about 10 now I think they'd say 2.5 and 1000.  Everyone who sees the Sweden stage acts either from MF or Thursday night have sneered at my love of ESC....yet when they see that they're 'well that's actually pretty good - I guess it's not all tat on Eurovision'

Sweden has crossover appeal and the overall package is clearly the best.

The missus is now hacked off that despite me doing this for three months and playing Sweden in the car for most of that time that it's only today I've only backed it and am relying on outsiders to land a three or four figure profit.  Why did I snap up the 12+s back in February?

Timbuctooth

You are a gentleman.  To the kids at Liverpool Uni I'm 'the Azerbaijan guy' (see other thread) and now to the people down my cul-de-sac I'm 'the man that can' after getting a far better price on Greece than Hills were offering.

At least my street cred is in tact!! 

SWEDEN is trash.

Armenia on the move. Well done backers, you've got good taste!

As for Sweden backers... Baa! Baa! Baa! Baa!

This is just a note to Bexley and other suggesting there are always leaks in the markets after the jury final.

When Azer beat the much fancied France, the market was still badly wrong.  Italy smashed the jury vote and were still available at big prices, France remained strong favourites and Sweden and the UK who did comparatively poorly with juries compared to their overall positions were still shortening among those chasing the top 2 as Saturday progressed.

May 23, 2015 -- 3:23PM, popking wrote:

This is just a note to Bexley and other suggesting there are always leaks in the markets after the jury final.When Azer beat the much fancied France, the market was still badly wrong.  Italy smashed the jury vote and were still available at big prices, France remained strong favourites and Sweden and the UK who did comparatively poorly with juries compared to their overall positions were still shortening among those chasing the top 2 as Saturday progressed.

Azer was very heavily backed on the Saturday

and back then the way the results were calculate was different from now. Only the last 2 years have I been shocked at the volatility on the Saturday. How can a country which was 12/1 roughly after the draw was known and during the jury rehearsals,and getting decent reviews of that jury rehearsal, drift to 40+ the very next day without inside trading?

Nothing particularly suspicious does appear to be happening today unless you count the Belgium drift after yesterdays heavy backing. 8 to 16

Which country was the 12/1 to 40+ Bex?

I did not say Azer was not backed, but most of this could be attributed to what was seen as a bad jury show for France, and a lot of tipping up for Azer - they had been shortening for a few days.  The system was different yes, but you would have expect Italy to have at least shortened a bit, with such a huge lead, and UK to drift badly after such a bad show and these things did not happen until during the Saturday show.

I am not so sure about the last couple of years which is why I did not comment on them.

I would just be cautious about over estimating the significance of these market moves.  I expect the reveal of the voting order has had a lot to do with some things too.

Italy was backed though as quite a few pointed out on the forum though it didnt get so much attention as it was from 200 to 33's or something like that
But yes im in particular referring to the last 2 years. Virtuallynothing surprises the market now, top 4 correct and 8 of top 10 I think

last year^^

Belgium 17 now and was backed in the 7's yesterday. Would be no surprise to me to see it 25+ before showtime. How would you explain that away?

The extent of the drift surprises me, although some might argue it had become way too short and layers may be locking in profit?  Also the top 2 remain strong, if anything, shortening so there is some natural drift on most of the rest too.  See Italy, Australia etc.

Belgium did have what was perceived as a slightly poorer jury final, and obviously the voting order does not scream "Belgium win".  You may also note they have not drifted much in the top 4 market.

It will be interesting to see just how they did with juries, as I expected this to be a better result for them than televoting.

£3 million traded in the win market.

Belgium gone for a burton

May 23, 2015 -- 6:42PM, Cider wrote:

Belgium gone for a burton

Indeed 7 to 23 in one day, could be 33 -40 by first live song

People will be averaging up on it , just like I did last year on Uk and in a prior year Serbia. But the price never firms up just gets larger and larger as those in the know rake it in

27 now... just 5 minutes later

£6,901,587 total matched in win market at close of play.

Most of that on the night

Indeed George, and £3 million traded before the contest started at 8pm the most ever traded before the start of the contest final. Perhaps it will be over £3 million before start of contest final.

next year.

Oh well a decent four figure win but as usual feels like a loss...first to big up Sweden, named top 10 correctly, backing at 900s (with cogent reasons I hope)someone who was trading at 11s on the night.....why isn't it a five figure win? Bring on next year

Did you lay your Serbia last night George when they got into the 20s and even teens?

(I can't say I did, I had taken them max red before they got that low.)

She went as low as 11s Henry I was watching her price like a day trader Laid some as low as 38s but also higher Henry. Ended up red because of delays in BF when I meant to leave a couple of grand green and couldn't face actually losing on her so bought a bit back. Knew it was daft but hey ho she still made me a good profit and was the basis of my all green book.

My Italy "trap" worked exactly as I said it would but didn't trade it all out as planned just left a cheap big green. Plenty will be wishing they were in my/our shoes this morning I guess. How did you do overall...ok?

yeah, it was a good one

Wonder how many took big hits last night...always has to be losers. One day I will get my all round game together...the insights in nearly all rtv shows are invariably on point just need to work on the betting side...bit like my poker game. It will come.

Talking of Serbia there was also a plunge on Armenia. Nowhere near double figure prices but a fair amount traded. Because The Guardian tipped them to win

Even I never said they'd win

They had done their job for us just qualifying

Yes, they were slot 2, the worst, and just before Belgium, and they got to 7th place. That's pretty good considering all their naysayers.

That was purely down to who was in with them Henry including the diaspora vote I assume...need to study that to confirm. Nice example of homework paying off...ditto Macedonia NOT qualifying.

The prettiest. And most novel use of "oximated".

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=Nina+Sublatti&tbm=isch&gws_rd=cr,ssl&ei=945hVfz-OZPe7AatqYD4BA

(time to log off and get up)

I find the goth thing a real turn off tbh.

My Italy "trap" worked exactly as I said it would but didn't trade it all out as planned just left a cheap big green. Plenty will be wishing they were in my/our shoes this morning I guess. How did you do overall...ok?
______________

Hi George

Now we're after the event can you explain your Italy trap.  I know you left 'traps' yesterday as you posted on here and am curious.  Purely out of nosiness - just like when Velma is kind enough on Scooby Doo to explain the mystery 

That was purely down to who was in with them Henry including the diaspora vote I assume...need to study that to confirm. Nice example of homework paying off...ditto Macedonia NOT qualifying.

______________________

Macedonia qualifying was the lay of the week as we discussed on Tuesday,

BUT that same methodology of homework had Montenegro not qualifying.  Will have a look at the juries for SF2 today but I'm still puzzled by that one.

Also, for those who had a cheeky lay on Azer to qualify, we were so close to getting a shock big payout.  Oh well, can't have a Turkey 2011/Israel 2014 every year I guess.

"BUT that same methodology of homework had Montenegro not qualifying.  Will have a look at the juries for SF2 today but I'm still puzzled by that one."

Same here. That was my biggest single losing bet. Please post back here if you come up with anything, I think my brain is too frazzled to do any research tonight.

"tonight" - I mean today (see what I mean)

Well done all the contributors to this thread.  Been a interesting read over the past few months.  I'm a listener rather than contributor (a bit like listening in to someone's babestation conversation I suppose!!.......apparently).

Love the contest, listening to songs over and over again, choosing favourites but struggling to fathom some of the results.
San Marino jury.....are 2 of you seriously saying that Estonia was the worst song in the comp (and 1 other juror had it 26th!).   Four of the UK jurors had it 18th, 20th 23rd and 23rd and two of the Irish jurors both had it 26th.

Not pocket talking either but that really surprises me.

And the good old UK public, Lithuania 1st and Poland 2nd (after 1st last year).  Nigel Farage spinning in his political grave.

Welcome billy

I suspect that the UK PV result just shows that hardly anyone in the UK is bothering to vote.

We were all lurkers at one point, make the leap!

I make the leap........then read other thread and my points already made elsewhere!!!
Look before you leap!!

My lack of speed is something of a standing joke, on here. If you`re slower than me, well, even more welcome!

Only 418 posts since Jan 2001. Come on Billy you can do better than that

A strong forum helps the market.

Watch out for signs of grooming Billy

Nothing wrong with grooming him to be a member of our forum.

Too many keyboard warriors, on the horse racing threads especially, put me off bothering with forum.  I like the atmosphere here though.
It's a bit like Eurovision, everybody coming together in harmony to enjoy each others company........until the voting starts of course!

What you having for dinner ?

Post yer bet billy!
Just kidding...

See you around February

Random thought but why don't BF give us separate pv and jury winners markets in addition to o/r...they don't do they? I think there would be fantastic betting ops.

Definitely worth asking them next year. I'd have done my nuts in it these year

Just adding up the top 10's from each half. Going back to 1998 when the televote came in
There have been 83 from the 1st half. 97 from the 2nd half

So an advantage to be 2nd half but not a huge one

#this year

I'm working on the formula

fwiw
46% chance of a top 10 drawn 1st half
54% 2nd half

Thanks...almost within the margin of error. This suggests that the value is to back those that get first half drawers and lay second halfers as their true chances aren't being reflected accurately in the market....after the drops/drift following draw.

T10 is almost half the field. May be very different if you do T5. T3 is probably immensely 2nd half.

Has the number of runners always been even? If not how are you treating the bubble?
Has the draw always been truly random (ie 1st or 2nd half)

I think there was one on the bubble and I put it down as 1st half I should have put it down as a half really
The draw has always been random as far as I'm aware
Easy enough to do a T5 or T3 if someone wants to do it. All the results are on wiki

Dead equal over the last 6 years, since we've had the juries
30/30
So maybe the juries help even things up

Cheers Fig. There's so many small things that can influence such statistics.

I'm also unsure how the big 5 gets drawn. Or even if there's always been a big 5 or pre-qualifiers in those years.

Next stage is to work out what odds the Top Ten were pre-Final.  It may just be that Top Tens for the first half were all odds on. 

For every Mans pissing it from First half you have an odds on Top 10 shot like Sloevnia that bomb from a bad spot.

2011 - Sweden came 3rd from early draw; Estonia came 2nd last from similar draw despite being long time 2nd favourite that year.

I guess what I'm saying is there's so much to factor in. 

Maybe further dissecting it between quarters is the better determiner.  I know Popular came 3rd from an early draw and I always felt that could have won with a better draw.  Had that maybe been nearer the middle or end it might just have won it.

Cider

It was big 4 + Norway in 2010
Big 5 in 2011
Big 5 + Azer in 2012
Big 5 + Sweden in 2013
Big 5 + Denmark in 2014
Big 5 + Australia + Austria in 2015

I know Austria drew separately and they ended up bang in middle (14)

Rest of Big 6 drew between SF1 and SF2. 

I don't know specifically when the draws were done in the other years.

2013 contest:

"Running order - Unlike previous years, the running order was not decided by the drawing of lots, but instead by the producers, with the aim of making the shows more exciting and ensuring that all contestants had a chance to stand out, preventing entries that are too similar cancelling each other out.[29] The decision elicited mixed reactions from both fans of the contest and participating broadcasters.[32][33][34][35]

The running order for the semi-finals was released on 28 March 2013.[36] The running order for the final was determined on 17 May 2013.[37][38] An additional allocation draw occurred for the final with each finalist nation drawing to perform either in the first or second half of the final.[37] The allocation draw for qualifying countries from the semi-finals occurred during the semi-final winners' press conferences following each semi-final, while the allocation draw for the Big Five countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom) occurred during their first individual press conferences on 15 May 2013.[37][39] As the host country, the running order position for Sweden in the final was exclusively determined by a draw during the heads of delegation meeting on 18 March 2013.[37] Sweden was drawn to perform 16th in the final.[37]" source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_2013

2014 contest:

"Running order - As in 2013, the host broadcaster DR and their producers determined the running order for each show with only the starting position of the host nation being determined by draw.[40] A draw which took place during the heads of delegation meeting on 17 March 2014 in Copenhagen determined that Denmark would perform 23rd in the final.[41] On 24 March 2014, the running order for the two semi-finals was released.[42] Prior to the creation of the running order for the final, an allocation draw was held during the semi-final winners press conferences following the conclusion of each semi-final and during the individual press conferences on 6 May 2014 for the Big Five (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom). The draw determined whether the country would perform in the first or second half of the final. The producers published the final running order shortly before 0200 CEST on 9 May 2014. Ukraine were drawn to perform first, whilst the United Kingdom were drawn to perform last.[43]" source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_2014

In 2012 there was also a wild card in use for the draw where one country in each draw could choose there starting trap: see: http://www.eurovision.tv/page/news?id=49623&_t=results_of_the_2012_running_o...

url for link above: http://tinyurl.com/pccbh98

Oh yes.  I recall Poland getting the wild card and opting to go 1st in 1st SF 2011.  The beautiful Magdalena Tul proceeded to put in a surprisingly limp performance and go straight out with a whimper (taking my money along with her)

Germany got the wild card in 2010 and opted for Lena to go 19th and with typical German efficiency they obviously picked the prime spot as she won.