Ignore the 'draw' fantasists...best song wins

So which is the best song then?

Lithuania was but now it's tricky

I tend to agree though. The relevance of the draw is overdone by many.
I remember looking at top 10's last year, which is obviously a bigger sample  and the advantage of being 2nd half all but evaporated
To answer the question. Maybe Popular drawn 7 and finishing 3rd would have won in 2010, but I suspect those who liked it and voted for it would have done from any draw

This looks suspiciously like another Azzy Bazzy thread

I layed off quick but I'm tempted by the price now, so you could be right Hems

Clay I just realised you are the guy who was giving the Seahawks dreadful PE last season!!

I hope your Euro PE is better!!!!

What's PE?

Sh!tehawks

Performance Evaluation.

A term that came to me recently...

The draw is always important in any show, especially in Eurovision with 26 runners

People who vote are looking for their favourite

While watching the early act they are not too concerned because they know there are many acts still to come
By halfway they are trying to focus more on finding their winner
Towards the end they become desperate to love something and will fixate on an act that catches their attention
By the last song most will have already decided who they want to win and as they already have a favourite they will compare the last few songs negatively

I know which act will catch my 'Attention', and though Lirhuania sang about it, Poland actually have it!

The act with the big jugs caught my eye, im voting for them.

Draw effect overdone.  More of an issue in the semis than the final

What makes you say that Clyde?

Since semis started in 2004 winners have come from all over the ro. In the same period Final winners have only come from slot 17 or later except 2004 slot 10.

Not just the winner though Henry.  Why restrict your analysis to only before 2004 and a tiny sample of 9 when there are twenty five runners to increase the sample size to 225? and there are semi finals where you can compare in many instances how the same songs performed early and late.  Although I've never done any serious analysis my feeling from glancing at the relative performance of the same song is that I personally think a late draw is worth only a few extra points, say 5-10% more.

So for instance if going early you may get 200 points, going late may on average get you an extra 10-20 points

Alright clyde but I'm with Henry on this one

We all look at reality shows and know a late runner is better than a front runner ,
X factor , bgt etc you would always rather have a late trap.

With 26 runners I feel this is even more key(   in terms of the public vote )

Since voting changed 2009 I believe
The winners have been

20,22,19.17.18.

Whilst I agree it's not the only factor , I certainly would rather be drawn as a winner 16 or later.

In terms of top 10 -     7  out of the top 10 last year were drawn t17 or later. (With the lowest trap being trap 10 making the top. 10)

Last year was a bit unusual .


Number of factors on winning but this is key .(not that everyone agrees )

But as I stated in opening post, what about the primary/regency effect on memory? It shows the worst place is the middle. Early on is not much of an hinderance

Why do early draws not generally win then ?

Primacy effect is reduced, ultimately to zero, the more items there are and also the faster they are presented.

What are the draw fantasists saying now? Austria, Sweden and Armenia sang from so called unfavourable draws

Armenia traditionally scores well in the contest.

Likewise Sweden, and this particular song and performer was somewhat overhyped in the run up to the show.

There were a number of power ballads along similar lines to the winning song, some probably much better but not memorable.  Austria's song was memorable from whichever position it was performed due to the appearance and personality of the performer.

Who could resist the love child of Freddie Mercury and Cheryl Cole.

Clay, if it snowed one year in a decade in May, would you conclude from that that people who say May is a good month for holidays are talking nonsense or would you write off the one year as unusual? In eight years out of the previous nine, the winning country started 17th to 20th, with the exception, Bilan in 2008, starting in 23rd position. The draw is not *the* factor, but clearly it is a factor.

I think hand picking and choosing the most apparent small sample headline stat to fit an argument is flawed.  A sample size of 9 is tiny, let alone a hand chosen sample of 9 to fit an argument.  What about the draw of the songs that finished second, third, last or second last and why ignore before 2004?

Comparing the effects of the draw for XF and BGT (for example) to Eurovision is flawed to.  One is heavily manipulated.  The last or late acts in these shows generally is last for a reason, which might be good performance in rehearsals, and may well be accompanied by good VTs, vote getting judges comments and favourable song choices.

If Conchita had not roused the gay community Europe-wide to vote en masse, we would be looking at another late draw winner in Netherlands. You also say 'the best song usually wins', Clay. It didn't win this year, that's for sure. Running order has a big impact at ESC; this year was very much an anomaly, purely cos of the Conchita effect.

Clydebank, because the most recent decade seemed a fair sample, also televoting kicked in in the late 90s. But since you ask, here we go, starting position top three every year 1995 onwards.

2014    11    24    13
2013    18    20    22
2012    17    6    24
2011    19    12    7
2010    22    14    19
2009    20    7    11
2008    24    18    21
2007    17    18    15
2006    16    22    13
2005    19    3    4
2004    10    5    16
2003    4    22    11
2002    23    20    2
2001    20    23    22
2000    14    9    21
1999    15    13    21
1998    8    16    10
1997    24    5    2
1996    17    12    23
1995    5    9    18

WINNER DRAW ORDER (totals)
21-on: 4
16-20: 9
11-15: 3
06-10: 2
01-05: 2

TOP 3 (totals)
21-on: 15
16-20: 14
11-15: 12
06-10: 7
01-05: 8

Don't see how anyone can conclude from that that starting position is not a factor? Even the last two winners that started in the first ten only won narrowly. Turkey won in 2003 by two points and Israel won in 1998 by six points.

Let me just answer that.  I didn't say it wasn't an advantage, I said there was an advantage but it was exaggerated.  I also said look at the draw of those finishing last, second last etc. not just those at the top of the pile.  I've looked at the last 8 years and 45.83% of the bottom 3 were drawn late.  Looking at those figures 36.2% of songs in the top 3 were drawn early.  That I would say more accurately reflects the advantage than saying (prior to this year) the last 9 winners were all drawn late

Then you've got logic.  To me it's logical that since the jury play a part, the draw should be a little less of an issue than it was before when it was televoting only.  It is also logical to me that since semi finals have been introduced the draw should be a little less of an issue than when there wasn't one.

Clydebank, would more or less agree. If there's a standout song (Rybak) it will win regardless of starting position, but in years like this without a standout song, I'd be wary of backing any song in the top 5 to win or place. It's striking that no song which has started in the first five has finished in the top three for a decade.

In terms of last three places, I'm a bit sceptical of that, since there are always countries which will get points from friendly neighbours and expats no matter how bad the song. Greece could probably send a pensioner to burp into a microphone and they'd still get points from Cyprus and nearby Balkan countries.

These were the starting positions of the last three each year (last / 2nd last / 3rd last)

2014    14    17    25
2013    26    5    4
2012    12    1    2
2011    13    8    22
2010    12    9    10
2009    24    1    25
2008    10    4    2
2007    4    19    13
2006    7    3    19
2005    17    24    2
2004    3    13    18
2003    15    5    21
2002    14    24    11
2001    2    4    12
2000    10    5    1
1999    3    14    16
1998    5    3    11
1997    3    15    7
1996    18    21    14
1995    3    13    16

OVERALL (starting positions)
01-05: 21
06-10: 7
11-15: 15
16-20: 8
21-on: 9

Even there, there does seem to be a bias against countries which start in the first five. Draw is definitely one factor among many to think about.