ESC 2014 Netherlands

It is doing incredibly well. The only point I'd make is we've seen how poor an indicator iTunes can be on these shows.
Latvia & Portugal both doing well for example and yet failed to qualify.
Having said that it's very jury friendly too. Western juries anyway. So appears to have that base covered too.

Jury member selection criteria
All jury members are music professionals. They are being asked to judge:

vocal capacity
the performance on stage
the composition and originality of the song
the overall impression by the act
The average age of the jurors is 40 years old, 79 members are female, 106 are male.


Not sure it scores highly on all points

I think it scores highly on all those.

And it's proved its commercialism overnight. Which is another important point, and it used to be in the juries list, maybe still is unless it's only those 4 criteria.

It still is I'm sure.

Haven't paid much attention to the eurovision, just noticed on tv yesterday that the first heat was on. Decided to put myself through the torture to try and have a nibble on something for Saturday as a little interest, as soon as netherlands came on its easy to see this would be popular, very easy on the ears and easily less dangerous for the temples as most of the acts yesterday. Very surprised I managed to get 40 during the performance. Going to watch second half thursday, just to see if there are any dangers in the other half.

oh i'm so not getting on this train to no where...reasons, 1.no one votes for the Dutch. 2.it's far too un-eurovision. 3.tv viewers will not like it. 4.it's overated due to a p1$$ poor semi.
to those that have backed and traded well done...to those that have backed hoping for a win...dream on

Will try to put down the facts and what most likely will happen:

With the jury+telephone-votes , a song scores bigger now if it is decent popular with juries and phone voters. Let's say it is ranked 5th in the jury (estimate of me, Netherlands across the whole of Europe) and 5th in telephone votes (a good estimate after the Chocking popularity of I-Tunes) (Though I-Tunes is not a record sale of 1986, where it takes thousands and thousands to make an impact).....
We get that Netherlands will score top points from a lot of countries. 5th in a jury and 5th in a telephone vote would on a random translate into 8-12 points, most likely 8-10. This goes without saying or debate, it is a fact.

From Sweden it will probably be ranked Top 3 jury and Top 2 tele-vote, so 12 points. Sames goes for a few other countries.....
Even if Jury is 9th and tele vote is 7th (Eastern Europe), it will be 4-6 points.
Now, you do the math here yourself.

It starts in the 2nd half. Even with Bid 14, it stands a good chance. With Bid 22 it's like a done deal.

No other act has charted on I-tunes like this before. None........
Everyone I spoke to loves it. Random people, random origin. Random age. That counts for less obviously.....
I usually find the winner in this competition. This year I was not sure. I am still not sure, but my money is now on Netherlands. Odds should be way lower than 9-10. The only reason it is there, is because the trading aspect. Putting it all together, I can not see anyone else being more likely to win than The Netherlands.

Top 10 is a give away. It's "free money". That is 90% for sure. One only needs around 100p for that. Take it while odds is up a bit....
It has charted high in as various countries as Latvia, Sweden and Slovenia. How about "broad appeal".......

It is not a jury song only. Though it will score big there. Tics the boxes. It also will get telephone votes. At least enough to make sure it has a giant chance of winning this.
Armenia, Ukraine, Sweden all drawn in the first half of the final. They got more questionmarks about general appeal than The Netherlands. Hungary does not have a strong support normally. UK will never win. What's left? Not much, if any.

Everything points towards a victory. And if you don't agree, you can make a fortune laying it.

Update:

1-Netherlands
2-Sweden
2-Hungary
2-Estonia
5-Denmark
6-Slovenia
9-Finland
11-Latvia
15-Belgium
17-Ireland
18-Austria
28-Spain
29-Norway
33-Lithuania
41-Poland
49-Switzerland
93-Germany
101-UK
106-Russia
148-Portugal
368-Malta

The east are now buying it. Hungary and Slovenia have crept up to 2 and 6. Poland 41 and Russia down at 106.

It's grown on me but I'm still surprised by its success.

Really surprises me

That last sentence was repeated in error. It's not that surprising. It's got a quality Fleetwood Mac feel about it. And the last winner had some folksiness about it too.

surely you meant "The Police" and not Fleetwood Mac there H

It's still not doing great in the East compared to Armenia.
#22 in Russia, # in Greece (the only song charting there) #33 in Belarus.
I can see it getting plenty of 10s and 12s in the East and 6s and 7s in the West

Of some interest - top comment on Mumford & Sons - I Will Wait

Charlie Holwell
1 month ago
I don't understand! I listen to some of the heaviest dubstep that is out there and I wont listen to pop and all that rap **** but I LOVE this? and all of mumford and suns other songs?! I think im developing a soft spot

It's nothing like Mumfords tho.
That would point to Malta or Switzerland doing well
Which is the other thing against The Netherlands. There is much stronger competition in the West. Armenia has very little in the East

I think we've got your point by now Milan

Figgy Armenia is still my number one prediction. But I'm kind of basing that on it getting slot 13, which is just the best of a bad half. If Armenia gets an early slot and Netherlands and/or other contenders get 17+ then it's in the air.

True. There is an assumption it will be drawn between 10-13. If it's not then it will undoubtedly drift significantly

I should say be placed 10-13, not drawn

"Which is the other thing against The Netherlands. There is much stronger competition in the West."

I disagree. I think its main western competition is Sweden, due to Sweden being in a block more than the song Undo. And Undo, whilst sufficient, is old ESC and in the first half.

the Dutch song is a fine song, in it's own genre...most eurovision winner's smack you in the face from the getgo thou...this does not, on 1st listen it's ok if a little lifeless...it improves the more you hear it but it's gradual...what i'm saying is, it is not a eurovision song and imo has very little to no chance of winning the gig.
the song that really smacks my face is SPAIN...it's bold & brazen, it's loud & proud, it will produce goosebumps & make your hair grow and IT WILL WIN !

You're ignoring Denmark, Norway, UK, Austria, Spain, Malta & Switzerland then Henry?

Some of those could beat it, but Austria, Spain, Malta? Tell me you're not serious.

I can see all 3 picking up good pts in the west with the public and the juries

..and the juries in particular would look really bad if they had a top 10 of Western European countries. They have to chuck a few Eastern European countries in and Armenia must surely be top of most of their lists

I am totally convinced this is the winner. Drawn into the 2nd part of the final with ALL realistic contenders drawn into the first half. This is gonna be a landslide victory and as predicted, odds is now falling to where it should be. Well, should be lower and will be, if drawn slot 22 or alike by the producers.... will stay around 7-8 if slot 15 in the final.
Anyway, I have to say this looks like an open goal. Can't totally rule out Armenia or Sweden, or Ukraine. And Hungary is solid.....
But, for me, this is it. We have a winner imo.
Invest wisely, back or lay , fellows.....

Question for saslokk.

How bothered are you about Austria? It seems like we have a classic case of song v novelty. You would think Eurovision would gain a little more credibility if an actual song won but last night even the presenters seemed to want to big-up the novelty factor. Then they tried to add a little more drama by announcing Austria last even though everyone knew they had qualified.

How many votes are you expecting Netherlands to get from UK and Ireland? I don't think UK will give it anything and Ireland probably a very small number. Twenty years ago you might have expected at least a 10 off Ireland but since they stopped winning their stance has moved closer to our own in treating the competition as a complete joke. You only have to look at their recent entries. 

Can you cheer up Netherlands backers this morning?

I think they want it to win. They've dumped Armenia in 7th and put Sweden & Austria virtually next to each meaning they'll take votes from each other.
Also the quality of Netherlands is enhanced by putting straight after the cheesiness of Denmark

it*

So, my final thoughts now when there is little to know.

Ukraine: Drawn first, and there went the chance to win. Still will do good, Top 10 is a guarantee and maybe will finish Top 5.
Austria: Well, brilliant it was. But it has not charted in too many countries and the East-vote is a big concern. Like giant concern. Hyped for a reason, but at odds 4/1 it is a huge stay away.

Sweden: The weakest ever fav in Eurovision. Drawn 2 slots after Austria will for sure take away a lot from it. Competent, and very 1998'ish . Can it win? Yes it can, but I think it will not.

Armenia: Not ruling this out and at 7/1 or more it attracts me. But I think odds will drift more. Will win Eastern Europe and might do well in rest of Europe.

Hungary: I like this, but I would be surprised if this wins, like totally surprised. Top 10 looks solid, but should not have enough support to challenge for the podium.

UK: It will never win, despite the last slot. It has not charted anywhere and it won't have enough support.

Netherlands: I could go on here, but already have in previous posts. This is the winner for me, for all the reasons. Giant jury support I do expect, I also do expect this to be extremely popular around the continent. Drawn perfectly after the home favorite and have a forgettable San Marino after it and a UK song that wont scare anyone.

Netherlands should win this with a decent margin and I can not understand that "the market" has not got this totally, it is a deserved favorite and I would be surprised should it not win.

Good luck!