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George Bailey
19 Jan 14 14:49
Date Joined: 04 Apr 10
| Topic/replies: 62,054 | Blogger: George Bailey's blog
Liz owes me nothing or anyone who followed me on this one. Dodged an eviction at odds on to go...fav to go then drifted on another. She fascinates me because she is the epitamy of the "who is voting for her?" HM.  Still some mileage in her core vote in a multi way eviction imo plus she will get some of the anti debauchery vote.  Took some 33/1 and then 16/1 tf. 42s in o/r now and I predicted a sub 20s price at some point. Got her at average of 119s so I could take a profit now but won't; as usual will let it ride and lose as its always won in the house in the end.  Been an interesting ride though. Still think 16/1 tf on the HS represents some value as its not impossible Sam could do a Joey if she continues to bore for England.
Pause Switch to Standard View Liz: or when is a train not a train?
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Report GeorgeBrush January 19, 2014 2:51 PM GMT
Failed to make top 4 in an 8 way?

Anyone with that record should be a minimum of 50s
Report George Bailey January 19, 2014 2:54 PM GMT
That would still represent a profit for me.  Seems you and fll want to have it all ways with that eight way vote. On the one hand its Sam could have been second with 10% on the other its "you are fecked if you didn't finish top four" Wink
Report GeorgeBrush January 19, 2014 2:55 PM GMT
If Sam got 10% they are all fecked tbf

Not including your TF bets
Report George Bailey January 19, 2014 3:00 PM GMT
I can see Sam's support falling off a cliff....but like everyone else on here it seems I am racked with self doubt this series
Report GeorgeBrush January 19, 2014 3:05 PM GMT
Report GeorgeBrush January 19, 2014 3:06 PM GMT
I might agree, but that journo task just showed her up. She was awful

Be amazed if she got more than 5% in a final
Report five leaves left January 19, 2014 3:13 PM GMT
Report George Bailey January 19, 2014 3:15 PM GMT
I'll settle for that if she is the last female standing. Not impssible. Casey now hitting meh territory (being serviced for months by it seems}, a h2h with Luisa becomes a vote to evict so she wins that and Sam who?
Report George Bailey January 19, 2014 3:16 PM GMT
oh forgot Linda Plain
Report timbuctooth January 19, 2014 3:59 PM GMT
The problem with Liz is that you can`t see her doing anything, ANYTHING, interesting, enough to gain enough votes to see her go from, at best, fifth, to first.
At least with the other outsiders, you could possibly envisage some sort of twists to the storyline to put them in with a shot.
Her and Ollie my only two reds.
Report George Bailey January 19, 2014 4:13 PM GMT
I suspect your Ollie red will cause you a few squeakius bottimus moments before this Liz that's basically what I was saying in my original post but fifth might be enough.
Report timbuctooth January 19, 2014 4:26 PM GMT
Young dreamboat, decent, fanbase, `current`. What`s to fear?
Report George Bailey January 19, 2014 4:30 PM GMT
His being adopted by middle england?
Report timbuctooth January 19, 2014 4:43 PM GMT
Sorry, GB2,maybe my post doesn`t read as tongue-in-cheek as I intended.
An obvious front-runner, even pre-series, done nothing wrong in the house, clearly in with a decent shout. But value? Not quite, for me. So yes, squeaky time, as he seems sure to be in the final few.
Report George Bailey January 19, 2014 5:05 PM GMT
Thought it was only yanks that didn't do irony Blush....the big question for me re Ollie is will his high poll ratings )with me anyway) convert to actual votes. Evidence to date is maybe not.  Not a big fan of the en masse voting transfer theory but if Sam goes before him he'll pick up a wedge of the anti sleaze vote.....whether there is an anti sleaze vote is another question of course.
Report GeorgeBrush January 19, 2014 5:18 PM GMT
Jim has an anti sleaze vote too ironically
Report George Bailey January 19, 2014 5:24 PM GMT
He's everyone's favourite great-aunt
Report George Bailey January 20, 2014 11:36 PM GMT
Report George Bailey January 20, 2014 11:44 PM GMT
If Sam is getting trounced by Liz on her home patch(twitter) how does she beat her? I'm dreading some sort of medical sympathy vote when Sam's allergy is announced to explain her lethargy and blown up face
Report mach January 20, 2014 11:52 PM GMT
Sam and Ollie are like the cool kids from every teen Hollywood move for the last 20 years, once the outsider makes makes friends with them they then realize all the cool kids are empty headed choonts
Report George Bailey January 21, 2014 12:15 AM GMT
Report balsamic January 21, 2014 12:51 AM GMT
My only bets this season have been backs of Liz, between 110 - 240. I could see a potential 'victim' situation happening (and if there's one thing Liz Jones can do it's play the wronged party). The Mail online crowd could, under the right circumstances, have given us another Ulrika, or - as GB says - at least got her down to single figures at some point.

I'm out now, for a small overall green & a free bet on Liz, should an unlikely ressurection occur. It was a decent idea, but one that didn't quite pay off. Backers needed something dramatic and relatable to occur, which hasn't so far.
Report George Bailey January 21, 2014 1:00 AM GMT
Yeah I was hoping for another Ulrika...but you have at least doubled your money backing her...did you get the 10s at laddies?
Report George Bailey January 21, 2014 1:03 AM GMT
3.9 taken zzzzzzzam.....stick or twist?

And 10s top female
Report balsamic January 21, 2014 1:12 AM GMT
No, just dealing with the OR market here. I'm semi-retired from this nonsense now & haven't been watching much to be honest. Laugh

Seems our slightly deranged heroine has had a better show tonight though by all accounts. Here's hoping...
Report George Bailey January 21, 2014 1:17 AM GMT
You didn't see it? She stole the show.
Report mach January 21, 2014 1:22 AM GMT
the problem is Liz and jim are swimming in a similar pool and jim takes most of the votes, against sam who has her own pool of empty headed followers, if they turned out for sam last week with no air time they will turn out again imo
Report George Bailey January 21, 2014 1:30 AM GMT
Yeah shame it wasn't a four way with Ollie
Report balsamic January 21, 2014 1:32 AM GMT
I'm now bleaching my brain to get rid of that mental image.
Report Henry VIII January 21, 2014 6:30 AM GMT
Too late probably but Liz has all the momentum. Comments massively in favour of Liz and against Sam:
Report George Bailey January 21, 2014 8:44 AM GMT
Why too late Henry? Liz getting double the Sam vote on the BBSpy poll since phone lines opened.  Long time to Wednesday night I accept though. Laddies 12/5 now Sam so that 9/1 looking mighty fine. I can easily make a case for Sam to survive and she well might but at least we have a contest now.
Report mach January 21, 2014 10:03 AM GMT
I find the Liz top female price @15 more appealing than the Liz O.R. win price or laying Liz in the eviction
If Liz beats sam no other female would be standing in her way, she may have to survive another couple of evictions, unless BB decide it's boring having Liz and Jim up each time, and change the process
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