***IT'S HERE - THE OFFICIAL SCD FINAL LIVE IN-RUNNING THREAD 21/12/13***

Utter utter joke. 

The best dancer by miles gets beaten by an over-attention seeking wannabe - watch this space when hubby discovers there has been more to rehearsals than he realises.

Free votes the difference there for me


Agree , this must have helped greatly with the regional vote.

People just voted for the best dancers rather than the gurner

At suspension:

Susanna 1.53
Natalie 5.1
Abbey 6


A few seconds before suspension:

Susanna 1.55
Natalie 5
Abbey 6.8

Abbey was drifting and drifting.. market had no idea

That's why they gave Sophie a swerve then

cheers Sue

was certain the disgustingly cheesy gurner was going to win

although I do acknowledge that I was sure I was going to lose I never had any intention of cutting the losses

paid off!

MEMs tapped into Abbey falling in love but keeping her legs closed...much more than SueKFG in the end. We all said Sue would be fecked without him and the GBP voted the celeb not the pro

FWIW Bruce said I need to speak to the runner-up, Susanna.

One of GB's blondes has finally won, and don't we all know it.

Hang onto your £10k green Ham?

Yup, big red here.

Sorry mate...I take no joy in forumites losing

Money chasers yes...they never learn. Another insider theory bites the dust

Do you not believe the inside info was true? I believe it was...but it can always change on the night.

The drift on Abbey was very odd. I thought her QS was a real crowd pleaser. She got my 5 votes after that. Maybe plenty of others too. So no one had any left to vote for Nat

The inside money patently wrong.  I had Sue plug last all through...for the life of me I couldn't spot her support but no poll did.
She was getting the votes to keep her in and in the final the usual tidal wave of votes for the "best"kicked in. I had Abbey well ahead of SEB as better dancer. Should have ditched SEB much earlier.

I gave 4 votes for abbey and one to SEB then all 5 to Abbey.

She was last on twitter all night GB2

Susanna & Kevin trending a sign they'd lost

Not a lot of the market made sense. Panic buying and laying I guess. As I pointed out Nat was odds-on to go first, when she stayed she traded higher!

Not sure how they do trending but on my to win tweet count, Su was last all night

Yes lots of clues she wouldn't win fll.  Must have been a lot of votes to save that disappeared when it mattered. I reckonshe was 25% v 75% marmite and plenty woukld have voted just to beat her rather than have her win.

That's what I did with my votes for Abbey

Nothing on the red button about Su being 2nd cider?
They were announced as joint runner ups before their interview with Zoe

The way he said it made it sound like she was second. Maybe never be confirmed.

I voted for her cos I liked her and didn't want el gurner to win...double whammy for her. With hindsight we should have realised she was on thin ice and it was only KFG keeping her up. Worried about Nat being a good dancer too but she was marmite too and only pulled it round at the death. A split best dancer vote and still she won. Makes methink that 50% Sue vote or whatever was bollox. Of course we will never know thanks to the arrogant Stasi BBC chunts.

Stick it all on XF #1 for a 1% overnight return?

I reckon the 50% was right, but 50% of a vote of a few hundred thousand. Not 6M
It's called the Eggnog effect

couldn't be arsed..I don't get out of bed for less than 2%

Weren't there 10M votes the year Burka won XF?

Something sweet when a ditzy married scouse dope head with a major crush on her partner cancapture the imagination of the GBP

I thought it was an exciting market and any of them could have won. I think Abs was my second lowest green in the end but courtesy of some cheap buying of Sophie and Nat at double figures, and covered by Sophie going first somewhat. Easy to be wise or critical after the result but it's the odds we are playing and sometimes the right bets lose.

Fantastic season both betting and competition wise and with Nat a false fav at times easy to have an all green book.  I honestly don't know why people would take such polarised positions in such an open field.  Losing is worse more than winning is good.

Ongoing debate it will never be answered! I'm happy to lose if striking the right bets (ie not chasing) I'm still happy I took 2.25 on Su given the info at the time. It's only the fact she lost that could potentially make me question it. Extremely rare for me I ended up with a positive outcome on all runners.

They were all winners for me at the end too. Amazingly Nat my biggest in the end and not much between the other 3.
Feel I should have taken some of the 6 on Abbey at the end but was too busy backing Nat.
Her run probably came too late and I expect Abbey led from the 1st round with that stunning waltz and was never headed

She led on twitter from the 1st dance and it was only at the end that Nat took the lead
I think twitter is still a decent guide for finals. Pretty useless beforehand

Yes she lead from the off for me...had the momentum which was key.

Yes, as some of the guys said earlier in the week and I argued against
SEB was always struggling tonight. A spike after her Showdance but not enough given the better dance from Nat just before it and his big ramp of her

Lens ramp of Nat

Hopefully we will get a leak from the star as I'd love to know the %'s. I suspect quite close between the final 3

I didn't take any of the 6s Abbey either. Even though it had a feel of the classic upset. I got freaked by the late Nat and even Sue run at the very end but by then most people (like us two) had already voted.

You know a lot have got badly burned when the posts on here come to a dead stop soon after the result.

Despite the market being wrong so often, you still worry when you see a drift like there was on Abbey. I'll learn one day , as there seemed no reason to it for me. I thought her QS was a little messy but real crowd pleaser

True GB. I hope none of the regs have got burnt badly. I'm sure we all know how it feels. Eurovision being my worst result ever this year.
Looking back I should have just stuck with my early bets on Abbey @ double figures and not had another bet. I'd have won more

People always too quick to interpret money chasers as insiders...better to see tham as value providers.

Though ofc it would have meant some nasty reds elsewhere and led to some panic from me tonight I'm sure.
It's why like you I play it cautiously and lock in profit when I think the price is about right

True. Altho there are obviously leaks, I can't think of one ir and any dodgy moves on the night of a final.
Quite the opposite. The market often makes crazy moves.
Jai springs to mind. Chambers who drifted to 3.5 or bigger. The dancing kid who won BGT who drifted like a barge, etc, etc

I picked up on the Abbey mo too late to make her a huge green...SEB slightly bigger at the end. Happy to have an all green book and a good profit. Throw in decent profit for IAC and level on XF and I can't complain. Not been focussed enough to make the big profits of previous years...but may soon have plenty of time on my hands fairly soon

Jai drifted to 12s iirc all down to Cowell's ramping and twitter not picking up his support plus the "inside money" of course. Oh God I'm going on about Jai again

You lay Denmark fll or take a position on some milf diva?

Back from pub, Cider is right as ever nothing wrong in backing Susanna at 5/4 given what what we knew at that time, she became a lay at 1.45ish though, which I did but only to fund my late Natalie backs in the main.
Not a great result though and was genuinely surprised when Abbey was called as the winner, thats the great part about this game though you never completely crack it as dynamics change year on year.

Dec 21, 2013 -- 6:00PM, George Bailey wrote:

You lay Denmark fll or take a position on some milf diva?

Ukraine was my downfall. Was against it in every market. Oppose it big for Top 4 and H2H with Russia.
Top 10 market was poor too with just one pick up in Hungry? iirc
OR a small loss.
Some nice semi final results stopped it being a complete disarrrrster

Ukraine my biggest (jolly) green (giant)

I was rather surprised too JOT. I did think Nat's late charge and ramp from Len, could let Su through the middle.

Dec 21, 2013 -- 6:35PM, George Bailey wrote:

Ukraine my biggest (jolly) green (giant)

Yes. It was a dire 'song' and bizarre staging. Ofc we know now that they probably bought some of their pts. But then again so did Russia allegedly

George Bailey 2251 post....

A brilliant bit of advice that can be applied to most betting.

Don't take polarised views on markets (expect the unexpected) and learn that losing hurts more than winning is good.

It's all about the maths.

It's all about the maths.

It's partly about the maths.

It's all about the maths.

Too polarised a view

The maths only works if you assign the correct values to the outcomes,  so it is not really about the maths

For me there were too many things that could wrong with Sue and too many signs that she was vulnerable not to trade to a decent profit rather than take a position. Always looked likely she would trade very low when the money chasers arrived on cue; why look at big reds when you don't need to?

'Correct Values' = Maths.

Many oppposed Su because at 1.5 it represented value to do so. She looked the likely winner given public affection for her yet it still made mathematical sense to take her on.

Nat was a huge price all night given her excellent performances. I thought it made sense to have her on side even though I thought she wouldn't win.

Anyway what do I know, I thought Patrick was the value!

He was for tm Don't why I'm winking I wasn't on board

I remember DM comments a few days ago, where the women are more bitchy than DS, iirc Abbey got mainly thumbs up and Susanna mainly thumbs down. They would rush to Abbey’s side if a commenter accused her of anything like vanity.

"A show insider said: “Susanna is by no means the best dancer on the show but she’s connecting with the audience at home much more than the others. We’re looking at an all-girl final and something drastic will have to happen for Susanna to lose.”

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/tv/strictly-come-dancing/355584/Susanna-Reid-is-ruling-the-votes-on-Strictly-Come-Dancing-as-Abbey-Clancy-cast-out



"Susanna Reid is Strictly Come Dancing favourite to win final after dominating phone voting for a MONTH"

http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/susanna-reid-strictly-come-dancing-2948059

Polls v Leaks

Polls 1
Leaks 0

1.5 someone on under 20% of the polls and at least 25v75 marmite with no longer a vote to save but a vote for the "best dancer" to win.........

True, but maybe not entirely. Hollins and Chambers weren't the best dancers.

Abbey's sweet, happy and natural character would have been important. And enthusiasm. The little girl who gets to play princess at the ball.

(All solely hindsight in my case).

don't think Susanna was marmite. She has her haters and lots of negative internet comments but she was overwhelmingly liked. The polls got her wrong so she may not have lost by much.

* I don't...

I always thought Chambers would win; very MEM friendly with a great showdance. iirc they even fiddled the semi finals to get him through to the final...anyone remember that?...something about a tie. Mincey year passed me by.

no she was marmite Henry and if she had won the internet would have exploded with indignation. No such response to Abbey winning.

Nah they were liked. Abbey cried and had an emotive dance in the first round plus was top of the leaderboard. Susanna was bottom (again) she just ran out of steam where Abbey had some momentum. Lets not forget Abbey was in the D/O earlier in the series.

Liked and disliked easily the most marmite of the finalists. Bottom but a vote to win changes the dynamic completely. Abbey B2 when she was second on the leaderboard (?) plus wearing that awful mask thus breaking Golden Rule 29b. Nat in dance off too thus proving that in the final of SCD dance ability is very important. That's why SEB went first.

it wasn't a "fiddle" in the SF to get Tom Chambers through to the final.  It was the fact that the PV was deemed completely pointless as with three contestants there was no way the PV could stop the bottom of the LB being in a dance off.

So the voting for that week was deemed void and they all went through to the final.

Abbey was very natural throughout.

Her 'I'm having such a great time, I don't want this to end' phrases were very genuine. Think she played to the crowd in an unintentional but effective  way.

Helped her immensely that the judges kept pointing out that she's had no dance experience whatsover.

Su was outdanced. (am I really saying things like that?!!!)

ah yes that was it...seemed to recall some contention at the time

tbf, the "mask"  looked like a sparkly make-up mask and it was Halloween week where plenty of them had dramatic make up and spooky gimmicky accessories.

I think the KFG thing was probably overplayed last night where it was all about him too much.  Indeed the PD was almost totally all about him and Susanna was just twirling around looking on most of the time like a doll on a tacky souvenir music box.

The dance was ideal for Blackpool, maybe not so for the final.

I'm also wondering how important the impact of the "kiddie" vote might be.  Out on Friday evening heard people (assume various generations of families) talking about having Strictly parties, and I guess there are a lot of cases of Mums, Grans, etc., watching with younger kids who they might like to pander to and let them choose who to vote for.

I would imagine Abbey (looking young and like a fairytale princess in the waltz and a rag doll in the QS) was perhaps the only one the youngsters could really relate too.

Sophie - a bit goofy, pale and aloof.
Susanna - their music and routines a bit too old fashioned.
Natalie - a bit too grown up and occasionally fierce.

Just a thought.

Dec 22, 2013 -- 4:39AM, Henry VIII wrote:

don't think Susanna was marmite. She has her haters and lots of negative internet comments but she was overwhelmingly liked. The polls got her wrong so she may not have lost by much.

The fact that most people on here struggled to find anyone who liked her, the DM comments about her, when they were generally positive about her at the start,(Abbey went the other way, negative to positive), suggests she was very salty marmite.
I know of 5 people who voted for the 1st time in the final just to stop her winning.

One of them was me

Interesting thoughts about the younger vote squares. I suspect it played a part. But I think she won the MEM's round too. Much like Kara.
Her joyful enthusiasm was contagious

I suspect much like DVO, Nat won a fair few round in the final too. She certainly won me round and would have got my 5 votes if they hadn't gone to Abbey already

Thinking about it Abbey was the most "deserving" for various reasons....imo.

Without aftertiming, I think it would be fair to say that, for most of the series,  Abbey was fairly clearly the second best dancer. With that first vt however, she seemed to have blown it already. After three months  of projecting a far more `innocent` relationship, the public had forgiven/forgotten such possible indiscretion. Once that negativity had been removed, we were left with a fairly likeable, very good dancer, who was clearly loving every bit of the experience. Not a bad combination. Without the leaks, I suspect she would have been fav for most of the series.

tim

I think you've said that very well.  Very good dancer, second only to Natalie by a fraction for me so thoroughly deserved.

Abbey very nearly flip flopped at one point iirc until I guess the paso from Susannah.

How did the odds change throughout the show?

odds at suspensions on scores thead, and some of shortest odds matched were during the final

SEB, Su & Nat all drifted after there 1st dances. I think Abbey was fav for a short time.
Nat the big mover after the 2nd. Overtook SEB in the betting as she drifted. Su shortened and Abbey drifted a little

Nat shortened again after the final dances and overtook Abbey who drifted to 6. Su last matched @ 1.4 ish

their*

Abbey drifted to 6

Yep. last matched @ 6+ The market spot on as always

I couldn't find the post (there are so many threads)  but I remember saying Suzanna was 'marmite' right at the start and that would mean when it came down to the final vote she would not win so she had to be maximum lay material which is what I did..

got very nervous towards the end though mind

Every poll I saw had Abbey winning it. Just figured it was DS maniacs

DS have a reasonable record on strictly.
Certainly better than any other show anyway

Abbey closed with something on 6 but she was last matched at 6.8

Not often that happens with a Specials winner.

Jai went to 12s+ iirc