** The Official Strictly 2013 Thead **

Looks a cracking bet to me at current price now. Already on Susanna with abbey and Sophie covered, but this makes her an even stronger bet to me. Really think it's huge value.

Let's hope she fooks up her QS again We could have a nice drift

I'm hoping to see 1.5 when everyone sees the paper tomorrow, then it's lay lay lay until near result time

Strange that the Mirror have a voting leak. Have they ever had one before?

Not that I recall

38% when she really neaded the vote and a similar % last week, still doesn't mean it's all over

possibly a regurgitation of the previous leak, with no results released to prove them wrong

True Mach. That can basically say what they want knowing that they'll never be proved wrong

They*

I think the Sunday People had one claiming John Sergeant was smashing the vote.

You can never say these things are all over. She still has to actually dance for a start! Sounds pretty plausible though. And there's no evidence at all that they will heavily push someone else and deramp her, which they effectively did do to matt baker. Plus in his semi when he'd polled 50%, he'd cried and scored a huge, potentially one-off sympathy vote. She is hugely favoured by all factors this year - an all-female final with limited variation, 3 good opposition dancers and no 2-person finale. I do think she is much more of a Hollins than a Matt Baker.

Clearly the leak can be rubbish. Though they're very clear regarding it being from the semi vote. Strictly does seem to be fairly leaky when it comes to people in the press. Every year, different organisations seem to pick info up.

I've only known the Star have a leak, apart from that People one that could have been made up.
Anyway it shows SEB closed last week, if true

I still think she's a great fit with the audience and has more chance of causing a shock than Abbey

The online winner polls have been very inconsistent every one i look at shows a different winner which for me says it all about Susanna's competitors , they are all a bit meh and no one really cares for them.

She has no competition.

The Mirror doesn`t have enough credible form for leaks as to justify wholesale panic, possibly undoing three months good work. There does, however, seem to be something of a groundswell for Su, (at least on here!) 
I`ve tweaked Su a little bit greener, in anticipation of probably laying off, shorter, pre-show. Still haven`t a clue who`ll win, just playing the prices.

I don't believe this leak one jot for a number of reasons, none of which I can disclose on here. Susanna may win she may not. But there is still plenty of money opposing her if you look at the market.

Radio 5 announced Susannah has topped every weekly vote since the start!I'm on!

Radio 5 announced Susannah has topped every weekly vote since the start!I'm on!

If this info was correct she'd be about 1.5. She's not. I feel this is a massive scam. Someone is happily laying Susanna for as much as they can.

In fact, Susanna is drifting. You've all been had!

100-(38+15+15)=32

Those figures mean Patrick was second in the vote. Highly unlikely.

^scrap that, just read they were 1/4 percentages

£500 up looking to back Sophie now. So obvious what's being done here!

.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/strictly-come-dancing-final-poll-2933203
.
http://metro.co.uk/2013/12/20/strictly-come-dancing-2013-how-science-tells-us-sophie-ellis-bextor-will-win-the-final-4233173/

This market is mad.

Whichever way you look at it, evens is foooking massive here.

be sensible when reading these posts;fact;SEB although my fav has drifted from 5 to 5.6 this morning. Take the hint.

SR 1.93

Just the EVENS  left at PP if you can get on

Yeah for 10p

Looks like BBC intend to make it a coronation.

I asked about 7 people today when I was out shopping, who they wanted to win and was a little shocked that 5 out of 7 said Sue. These are people I don't know! Living not too far from Abbeys home town, I thought people would be rooting for her.
I don't really care now, who wins as I have them all pretty much level but all the signs are pointing at a Sue & Kevin from Grimsby win.

Be funny if Nat ended up winning

Oh yeah, something I've found interesting when people say whom they want to win, it's Sophie, Abbey but mostly Sue & KEVIN, all singular with the exception of Sue. It's obvious that it's Kevin picking up most of Sue's votes IMO.

Changed my book a little more, now have Sue a little more green than the restThanks to Mr PP. Sure I'll be changing it again before the final

OMG ......I am reading through my mail and what do I open? only a xmas card from a friend I've not heard from in over 10 years....Signed Sue & Kevin. This is getting spooky. Is it a sign? Should I get in touch with Ocean finance?

definitely some resistance now to Sue and support Abbey

Watch out for the real money on Sophie in the next couple of hours............

A month(?( ago, a previously unreliable source suggests Susanna doubled the vote of her nearest rival, in one particular week.

Yesterday, a previously unreliable source suggests Susanna is uncatchable.


Nobody is saying these leaks are incorrect, and I don`t think anyone should be saying `they are 100% correct`. We just don`t know. Such leaks do, though, seem to heavily contradict almost all other available evidence.
This leaves me with two thoughts: firstly, if INcorrect, should we max-red-Natalies be doing something about having the very best dancer as our only red? If she reaches the last three, the cat will well and truly be amongst the pigeons! If we ignore the leaks, for a moment, current prices would be massive


Secondly, that those backing Susanna at 1.8x are, in effect backing 1.8x not that she wins, but that the leaks are correct.
I`m not sure that the sources of these leaks have enough credibility in these matters to justify putting my money where their mouth is at the price. Clearly, a number of forumites, and the market, have complete faith in these leaks. I remain unconvinced, and will have her as my smallest green at the start of the final. During which, all can change of course, especially at the first hint of a ` coronation`!

Dec 21, 2013 -- 8:15AM, The Kitten wrote:

Watch out for the real money on Sophie in the next couple of hours............

The deadline for this keeps getting extended

Wasn't the first leak in the Star?... how could that be considered a previously unreliable source Tim? I've seen this info from 5 entirely different places now. At what point does it become pretty likely to be correct?

I'm with you to some extent Tim.

I still think Susanna is the most likely winner, but Sophie is now a much bigger green, just because of the huge disparity in current prices, which are not reflective of their relevant chances to me, leak or no leak.

Just layed some 1.81

Backed her last night at 6/5 and today at evens and laid at 1.8.

Dec 21, 2013 -- 8:55AM, GeorgeBrush wrote:

Just layed some 1.81

You don't think she will trade lower GB?

Any thing can happen.....In specials and that is why I even have Nat green now, silly not to at her current price!

Im not 99.9% those leaks are correct Im 100% Well certainly the Star one is.

The thing with the star leak, isn't it when Sue was bottom of the leader board? That would make her fans vote and the voting might have been really low no's.
Tonight more people will vote, even I might vote for the first time this series.
If the Star had more weeks to give the results for than one, I'd be backing  her all day!

What price would u have Susanna at now JOT, if u don't mind me asking?

Sorry, memory messing me around again, leading me to embarrass myself. Again. The first leak WAS from the Star.
While their record on XF is 100% beyond doubt, they don`t have so much `form` on SCD, and I think I allowed that subtle difference to somehow convince myself that perhaps it didn`t carry quite as much weight as an XF leak and, from there, my head twisting it to `it`s not from the Star, at all`. Idiot!

They have plenty of good form on scd as those backing Mincey and laying dvo will attest

but other form which hasn't held up which should be considered?

I know there have been the odd SCD leaks, but am I wrong to think that, over the years, there have been far fewer Star leaks on SCD than on XF?

She's clearly the star of the show. The one all the momentum is behind, all the stories... If it was a head to head with another celeb, she might end up losing, but one of the other couples is probably going to have to do something to really stand out in the final to catch her. I can't stand her, but I'm not overly keen on SEB either. Abbey's the nicest to me.

Showdances excepted, the only ones with a true stand out dance are Susanna and Sophie.

totally timbo, very few leaks on SCD in comparison to XF, although leaks in general have decreased over the past few years.

I agree about Abbey being the nicest and most sincere IMO.

the only other leaks I recall apart from those Brushy mentioned were for Matt and Russell.

I believe they were correct at the time but obv things can change very quickly.

Abbeys partner is also very easy on the eye

There was one about Austin and Tom jostling at the top in their year, but this was evident from Lisa and Rachel's poor polling.

Im a backer at evens, can see the argument for a drift tonight but I doubt there will be many casuals involved, so it would be minor. The argument that she isnt a proficient enough dancer doesnt hold, she will be close enough. The polls posted on here have been garbage when compared to the voting figs. From what I see lookingon has it right Susanna on her own would go close with her vote, Kevon from Grimsby adds a whole new demographic to her vote. The casuals I canvass have her about 50%, thats about where I would be.
Signed the man who laid Laila for elimination at 25/1 and also laid Rough Copy for elimination
2/5ish would be my price to lay 5/1 Abbey 10/1 Sophie 50/1 Nat

and Abbey might give everyone an eyefull in the SD by the looks of things

Can anyone confirm Sophie appears to have pimp slot?

Thanks, squares, nolongerconfused.com

could have if the BBC order of posting pics from DR is correct.

Excellent!

The other card the judges can use tonight which I don't think has been used yet with Sue, is her age. She's a good 10 yrs older than the rest of them.

Sophie's mid 30s

Len's face on ITT last night when speaking about Sue spoke a 1000 words.

Isn't Sue about 44? Big difference in such a physical show.

looks like she just turned 43.

Been doing marathons and associated training for years so probably a lot more stamina than the other three.

I think the only one who will be sad it's the final out of the 4 of them is Abbey as I think she's really fallen for her partner, the way she looks at him

SEB looks a lot younger than what she is.

Order from pics.
Su
Abbey
Nat
SEB

I see 3 of them as girls and one a woman, which can only benefit Sue.

If I wasn't  betting on this I'd want Abbey to win, Sophie 2nd, Sue 3rd and Nat last. But I'll do my book for the final timein an hour and I'll be rooting for my biggest green

And the long awaited Su drift arrives.

Is the pimp slot a gd thing tonight? I presume someone gets binned at the end of the first show? Or is it the beginning of the second? If it's end of the first, last slot is surely the worst, thinking about it?

Kicked out start of 2nd show

Pimp slot a definite plus, elim will be at start of show 2.

Ah ok, def a gd thing for SEB then, assuming that's the order. Shld be a leveller, tho I struggle to see it doin nat that much gd.

Why do lines open though?

So people can vote

It's a coronation, nothing else. 5 figure green here.

When, I should say

And yes ITT said a lot....just an air about the show that had her has winner...and tears during showdance from onlookers.

.
http://metro.co.uk/2013/12/20/strictly-come-dancing-2013-how-science-tells-us-sophie-ellis-bextor-will-win-the-final-4233173/

That poll that only started Friday morning - Sophie still clear leader. Big lays going up opposing Su now.

no moves 28 Sep 13 16:52 Joined: 24 Feb 04 | Topic/replies: 1,867 | Blogger: no moves's blog
I say this every year but might as well say it again never underestimate the power of being Gorgeous on this show.

best looking guy won it in 2013 (the gymnast)
2012.....the bloke from that pop group (he was surely the best looking guy that year
2011.....the gorgeous looking girl from Eastenders
2010.....the sports reporter had a partner whose tits could hardly be contained by her dress
Alicia Dixon won it and she was absolutely stunning
Mark Ramprekash had the ladies swoooning the year he won it
Gough....danced with the best looking female in his year.

No man has won it over the age of forty and no women has won it over the age of 32 (the thirty-two-year old was in the very first series, since then every female winner has been in her twenties)


great post!

Women vote for good looking women? How come t1t birds don't p1ss every BB/CBB/IAC?

Dec 19, 2013 -- 7:40AM, RMB © wrote:

She looks the value to me timbo. I've been backing her quite relentlessly, a horrible SEB Abbey book right now, needed that large bet at Su around 3.0 but guess I missed the fun last night

There was no need to panic RMB

From the official site the fecking arrogant scumbags

More than six million votes were cast in the final.

However, the BBC said it would not disclose the breakdown of the votes, meaning the second and third-placed contestants will not be revealed.

Really can't understand the secrecy from our public service broadcaster in not revealing the voting figures for the whole series a la x factor.

No its fecking disgraceful but we can all do something.  I have tried before under a FOI complaint but they weaseled out of it. I have just sent this formal complaint online. Easy to do and the more who do the better. Can I ask that we all send one?

https://ssl.bbc.co.uk/complaints/forms/?reset=#anchor


The BBC loses a lot of credibility and damages its reputation for openess by refusing to release the voting figures for Strictly Come Dancing. The excuse that you don;t have to because of a clause in the FOI Act is a poor one. What happened to transparency?

The BBC is inconsistent in that it DOES release the Sports Personailty of the Year results. Why for one and not for the other?

ITV give the full series results for X Factor and I'm A Celebrity.  Why is the license fee funded BBC less open than a private commercial business?

You encourage people to vote then don't tell them the results other than who has won. Why? What harm can be done releasing the results AFTER the event? What harm has been done to X Factor or IAC by doing this?

I believe the decision not to release the figures is untenable and does the BBC a lot of damage to its reputation.  Just read the comments in various forums.

Therefore in your response could you let me know not only why the results aren't published but also whose decision it is and who could change the policy?

Thank you

I'm trying to get a head of steam behind this. Slight change to link to make it even easier to mske a complsint.  Can one of you DS lot start a thread on there? Don't get mad get even.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/complaints/complain-online/

To not release the voting fifures is arrogant enough, but to not reveal 2nd/3rd place is just plain wrong and insulting.

Mind you, this is a cooperation that gave haven to the likes of Jimmy Saville so we shouldn't be surprised.

Don't get mad get even. We ain't gonna take it

#strictly peaked with 12.6m viewers last night (an average of 11.5m.)

Not sure if this was another winner for those who like to play the viewer markets. I know cider loves them

n1 thanks yes bets landed again, under 13.5m was the call plus beating xf peak in h2h

n1 cider. I know you love to play these markets and usually come out on top