***The Voice IR Final**

the naked group hug brought our girl home

Hardly involved at all but loving that rmb

JJ begging for votes was the sign

Pumps layed Leah when he heard her sing at very short odds. Great day for the forum and justice prevails.

That's me on the pi$$ for a few days

My sister had a tonne on at 8/1 today. Mind you she did vote about a 100 times.

JJ begging was great news

Pimps, crowds, and Andrea beats her, lovely stuff.

ha ha - BBC

phecked right over

The signs were definitely there that she was behind

at least mike can give leah a lift home on the horse

the more JJ said vote for LEah, the more they voted for Andrea

There's still a massive disconnect with social media, downloads etc and people that actually vote

Seriously I only turned on for the first time & heard her sing the end of the WH song & thought she must ne a total rag, who wouldn't lay after singing like that at 1.27

Dumb dumbs don't realise makes no difference to the brand, if Leah is a success the brand does well if she wins or not. Losing probably helps Leahs chances.

poor old Mike - done up like a kipper

Cheers Slipps

Yep very hard to work the BBC audience out imo.

They thought Mike was the danger

one of the nicest results in reality history

RMB

Her final song won it for her, best performance of the night by a mile.

Completely agree, after that I thought we had a chance of turning over Leah who had an absolute shocker afterwards.

Just realised i've been sitting on a malteser for the last hour

People see 'liking' on fb etc as actually voting imo

not very hard really

BBC audience pretty reliable

Andrea's final song far and away the most voter friendly.
I feel I should have won a fortune

The Eurovision singer bear?

Jun 20, 2013 -- 1:32PM, RMB © wrote:

They are desperate for her to win but backing her at 1.4 just seems silly. Look like another Tabby/Vickers, popular with twitter/youtubers but not so much with MEM. Andrea looks a great price if they give her the right songs, 'Songbird' and I think she goes close.

Leah hit 1.12 as well

I think i'd have noticed him Hems

Jun 22, 2013 -- 3:23PM, five leaves left wrote:

Andrea's final song far and away the most voter friendly.I feel I should have won a fortune

Same here; lost 35 quid but would have been worse if the Empress had won

Jun 22, 2013 -- 3:23PM, bearcub wrote:

Just realised i've been sitting on a malteser for the last hour

More likely to be a little ball of poo you've been shaping

I hope not Gb, i've eaten it

The prods are all having breakfast at the Bridge Cafe in the morning

Final song will have massively swung it for Andrea, performance of the night by a mile and would have been lapped up by MEM. Twitter/Facebook have all but no relevance in this show.

Jun 22, 2013 -- 3:27PM, Cider wrote:

The prods are all having breakfast at the Bridge Cafe in the morning

Proper result - shows those who vote aren't stupid - Andrea has an incredible voice - pure and unspoilt and she doesn't need vocal acrobatics to showcase it.  I got goosebumps every time I heard her.

Leah badly flat in places in first song and her duet did not work for me.

right, evening gents - I'm off to the football. wish it could always be this easy.

Most bizarre thing was everyone was in disbelief at her price but it kept on going shorter

Best explanation I can think of is that voting is very low, so regional vote can be key. Plus the usual marmite stuff with Leah.

Regional vote had nothing to do with it. Low voting does, I should imagine Andrea got a huge number of votes in the last 20 mins after smashing a MEM song out of the park.

yep
got to agree 13/1 will do me
There muse be some DOPES around

MC

Very late for a swing like that though. More likely that she was winning throughout regardless of performances.

I agree with rmb

That would have been the call to arms everyone needed to finally defeat the screechy tart

Jun 22, 2013 -- 3:38PM, TheFink wrote:

Very late for a swing like that though. More likely that she was winning throughout regardless of performances.

Nah. I'd not be surprised if 50% of the votes were done after first out and Andrea got 65%+ plus of them off the back of that performance.

Jun 22, 2013 -- 3:42PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:

That would have been the call to arms everyone needed to finally defeat the screechy tart

Same as last year...the general public waiting for a reason to overturn the fav, and eventually they got one

Anyone who didn`t win tonight really ought to give up betting on RTV. We`ve all been telling each other for weeks how beatable Leah was so, to whoever was backing her at 1.12, I say `Please come back`.  Not that she couldn`t have won, but, as always, it`s the value that counts. 1.12? Anyone remember a worse value price? I suspect that, like fll, we are all asking ourselves why we didn`t win a lot more.

With apologies to GB2, who, I`m sure, has a very good reason.

Didn't get involved in this because of the dodgy format but I have to say Andrea's peformance of My Immortal deserved to win any reality show imo it was beautiful. Those saying she won just because she were blind are doing her a huge disservice. Expect that song to go to number 1 this week or next week. It still looked like Leah would win though as an observer of the final only.

Unfortunately had to leave about quarter to nine to take the missus out but I've just caught up on iplayer and absolutely frilled Andrea won. The last song was a brilliant performance. Laid Leah just before I went out just on the off chance. Not for a lot but its paid for the night out.

Can't say I have a good reason for not filling my boots tim.  I did my bit for the forum by posting that I was watching her support leaking away and that she wouldn't win.  Early on she actually was very popular but even over a sprint she got found out.

As a backer rather than a trader I simply picked the wrong horse to beat her; Mike. Need to add more variety to my gambling to take advantage of my insights.  Plus I just lost interest with the overly complex format.

Wish we had voting figures as would love to know how close Cleo got to taking her out, I suspect it was very close.

http://tellymix.co.uk/ratings/151973-the-voice-2013-final-ratings-see-9-mill...

Like others have said above, I'm annoyed with myself this morning for not making more on this...

I went into the final level profit on all four - which is something I've never done before, as I've always taken a view at some stage.  But I lost interest in this series, really - and didn't even watch last night's show live.

We all had our doubts about Leah's ability to capture the MOR MEM vote, but the competition was really so poor this year it was difficult to see where the challenge would come from.  In fact there was an argument to say that the other three would split any MOR vote.

On the one hand, I'm glad that I let my green on the others ride - it shows once again that there's no such thing as a certainty in these reality contests, especially on the BBC.  So it has paid to keep all of the finalists on side and hedge my bets.

But of course, in hindsight I should have traded a good chunk of Leah out to at least double my profit on the other three.  Sometimes it really does pay to stick with your instincts - and many of us questioned whether a cool, edgy act like Leah could win this.

Of course, despite all the pimping, ramping and desperate pleas for votes, in the end it all came down to song choice again.  I personally loved Leah's duet with Will, but inevitably that will have proven a big turn-off for the majority of viewers.  She slaughtered Whitney too, so in the end the 'Arms of an Angel' proved to be a sublime masterstroke, striking right at the heart of potential voters.

If I had been watching live, either at the duet stage or after Andrea's final solo I'm sure I'd have laid some Leah back, especially at the prices quoted above.  It just underlines how important it is to see these things through to the end and trust your punting instincts.

Value is value, no matter how big the certainty may appear to be at the outset!

was leah a cool edgy act ?

not for me; just Fanny Mark II.  Andrea is edgier than your sister by the way.

We're talking by BBC standards here!

I would say she was pretty cool. Her second song was brilliantly staged and a different class to the other duets.

Thankfully for layers it didn't involve much singing

Yep I loved it too, but you couldn't even see her for most of the performance as she was hidden behind Will tap-dancing! Bizarre...

GB2
Sorry for singling you out but, when I wrote that, you were the only regular who had admitted to a loss, albeit a small one. It was intended as `mild teasing` rather than me being a smug b@stard.

Subsequent discussions on another thread showed that quite a few of the regs had lost. I really was surprised. Not because I`m so clever, but because I have spent the last few years assuming that the long-term winning regulars would be winners by dint of seeing, and taking, the value, as that`s the only way to win long-term.

For at least two weeks, we have all been re-assuring each other that she WAS beatable, and that the value call was to lay her, even at the prevailing 1.4ish. So, at last nights prices, I took her even redder, and really believed that the long-term winners, the value-seekers, would be doing the same.

There was plenty matched in the 1.2 region and, even though RMB`s copy and paste of the amounts matched stops at 1.15, she was actually matched as low as 1.12. I felt it was something like 50/50 whether or not the outrageous pimping would be enough to convince the MEM`s.

Therefore,as a value-seeking trader, rather than an outright backer, she had to be laid.  I was quite happy to lose, indeed I felt sure I would lose. However, even when I am sure I will lose, if the value is there, I have to go for it. Knowing that, long-term, I will be fine, even if I lose on this occasion.

Bearing in mind the unanimity of views on here regarding her `beatability` this is not aftertiming. We all knew, and agreed about it, for weeks. hence my surprise that any regs had lost, and my, perhaps slightly harsh, post suggesting you all give up, now!

I thought her duet with Will was a desperately poor choice, it was well staged but absolutely missed the target audience by a mile. Its fine producing cool edgy artists if you have a cool edgy audience but the Saturday night audience is anything but that.
The dwindling viewing figures tells us that the BBC arent giving their customers what they want, their pitiful ramping of Leah further alienated the audience. Only Tom comes out of the series with his credibilty intact though I thought Danny did ok last night. Unfortunately Will and Jessie are liabilities and are more intent on self promotion than their artists.
We will get The Voice back next year unfortunately we will have the same production team and coaches and it is they who will kill off the programme.

I enjoyed the duet, but agree JOT. It wasn't great for the audience and we also hardly saw Leah.
As you say, for Will & Jessie it's all about self promotion than promoting the acts.
Jessie in particular might be popular with young girls on twitter, but I am sure with the majority of the audience is a vote loser.
I am sure Matt wouldn't have been 1st out if he'd been mentored by Tom or Danny.
The problem is the BBC don't understand their audience.
Leah's style was never going to be a natural fit.
If they wanted young talented acts with a chance of having some chart success, but also people likely to engage the whole audience then why dump the likes Bronwyn and Conor. Plus a number of others.
We know why. The whole series was set up to clear the way for a Leah win. Even if they'd succeeded it was still a crazy decision to fill the lives with mostly no hopers.
It's something Cowell would never do.
The overall success of the show is far more important to him than the success of any one act.

Sounds like they were conspiring against the blind girl. As if she was sympathetic enough

i thought her duet had more to do with her coach not being able to sing than anything else, as someone else said he's just an illusionist, put up a smokescreen and they can both hide

To answer Tims post. The short answer is I've always believed the main difference between winning and losing at any form of gambling is psychology and not maths.
God knows why I didn't lay Leah. Especially after the desperation of Jessie and Will which many of us on here noted.
Well I do kind of know. After a poor year I went into the final with a defeatist attitude and didn't want to lay another poor value favourite, but end up losing fairly big again when they scraped home.

wasn't sympathetic enough

I wished I'd watched it all now. Thought the blind girl might win when she did Angel, but I figured Leah was that short for a reason

Because she was doing well on iTunes

If I had picked Little Mix at the outset, I don`t think I would ever again suffer from a defeatist attitude. You`ll have to do an Austin Powers, and get your mojo back.

No need to apologise to me tim; no offence taken or meant. I always post my book as it is and for what it is worth.  Spookily I could have written word for word fll's post 5 up.  I have some heavy duty sh1t going on at work so I can't relax and focus on betting like I did when I was winning on every specials without fail for about 18 months.  Till I get my sh1t together more than happy to post anything others might find value in.

Mojo needed for GB2 as well, then. You and fll can fight over who gets Liz Hurley or Heather Graham to help the retrieval mission.

I always say theres 3 things you need to be a good gambler, Head Heart and Arrse. Your head sorts out the angle to approach things, your strategy, when to change tack r when to commit. Your heart determines your desire to win to what lengths you will go to get what you want. Your arrse keeps your heart and head going when things dont go to plan.
If you havent got a reasonable level of all 3 you wont make it pay over a period of time.
I will add you should be aware what your strengths and weaknesses are. For me my arrse isnt as strong as it should be its probably that that stopped me laying Leah a bit more last night.
Final thing dont ever think youve cracked the game the minute you become complacent or over confident youre finished. Im a bad winner and an awful loser.

Nobody gets everything right, so you have to be able to deal with the losses. Any long-term winner (presumably most of the regs here) knows there will be pitfalls along the way. As an indie bookie who never lays off, I am used to dealing with these ups and downs, on a minute-by-minute basis, and with `real` cash. This has left me never getting particularly excited when I win at Specials, or distraught when I lose.

I don`t know about you lot but, when I first joined Betfair, across all the forums, the mantra was ` you`ve got to find an edge`.I used to think `edge? Where the hell do I find one of those?` Somewhere along the line, I`m not sure when or where, and in no small part thanks to the regs, I seem to have found my Specials edge.

As have fll, and GB2, with years of form as proof of deservedly high mojo levels. So, come on boys, buck up! Pull yourselves together! We need the heavyweights leading the chaaaaaaaaaaaaaarge from the front!

Agree with conclusions articulated here. And would like to add – no need for anyone to beat themselves up over not laying Leah. There was new situation here. For me anyway. The pleading of the show for its very survival. More extreme than Cowell’s pleas. And to a possibly much smaller audience. A couple of times Will said something to the effect of – we need someone commercial/Leah for the show to survive. How would the BBC viewers respond? Especially with viewing numbers dramatically down. For the first two live shows numbers were pitiful, but then the final had more or less the same as last year. Casual viewers. Who may only have seen a few shows in total before the final. Who probably never even heard the pleas, even if they were to care. So it was all irrelevant. But everything always seems obvious with hindsight.

And weight of money in one direction always creates hesitance to oppose.

The Voice sows the seeds of its own destruction.  XF casts its net wide and so has a fair chance of striking gold; it can even create groups in running.  By contrast The Voice tries to find the diamond among a "select" few.  Problem is they end up giving a chance to has beens or never will be's. Even with Leah she has been on youtube for a while and will have been checked out already and found wanting by the big recording companies.

Maybe they should drop the desperate drive for artistic integrity and just let the GBP decide without patronising them for getting it "wrong".

But they're learning. They've had more commercially successful people this year, mainly Leah. So they'll be buoyed up. Probably get more skillful like Cowell rather than letting the GBP decide.

Just so long as they don't stop begging for votes .  I must watch Danny summing up right at the end where every word he said was a plea to vote for Leah and then at the very end he said "So vote for Andrea" as a complete non sequiter iirc.

"dont ever think youve cracked the game the minute you become complacent or over confident youre finished"

JOT - if only you knew how many times we've said exactly the same over the past 20 odd years

and could't think of anything better to say than this below from Henry.  We were possibly dealing with a different/new set of circumstances here.

"Agree with conclusions articulated here. And would like to add – no need for anyone to beat themselves up over not laying Leah. There was new situation here. For me anyway. The pleading of the show for its very survival. More extreme than Cowell’s pleas. And to a possibly much smaller audience. A couple of times Will said something to the effect of – we need someone commercial/Leah for the show to survive. How would the BBC viewers respond? Especially with viewing numbers dramatically down. For the first two live shows numbers were pitiful, but then the final had more or less the same as last year. Casual viewers. Who may only have seen a few shows in total before the final. Who probably never even heard the pleas, even if they were to care. So it was all irrelevant. But everything always seems obvious with hindsight."

and I guess a result like last night (and the likes of Bez, Leon, etc.,) will always suit those of us with a traditional bookmaking background/head such as myself, tim, JOT, etc.

TBF to us bottlers there were a lot of reasons not to lay Leah.  In horse racing terms beating Cleo was a very good performance though we don't know by how far.  I was a bit surprised at how slow and unconvincingly we collectively responded to the vote begging.  I posted something like "its very close 1.01" yet didn't dive in.  In the past that would have been enough for a flip flop.

OT, been watching highlights from the Capital Summertime Ball (think it was a few weeks ago) on Capital TV today - see Ella Henderson accompanied Labrinth in Beneath You're Beautiful. Not particularly impressed.  Assume one of the Mixers will do it at HQ.

that was some drift %age wise after their little speeches tho.

Yeah but in a thin market. Do we know how much was traded in running?

squares 23 Jun 13 19:58 
and I guess a result like last night (and the likes of Bez, Leon, etc.,) will always suit those of us with a traditional bookmaking background/head such as myself, tim, JOT, etc.


Fair point. Bookies have to learn to `trust` the concept of value, and be able to ignore the short-term ups and downs.
I sometimes enjoy reading threads, usually on the Chit Chat and Football forums, declaring `There`s no such thing as value! A winner`s a winner!  For me, my perception of where the value lies is the one and only thing determining my plays.`
Far easier than trying to find winners. Find the value, and the winners will find you.

Matched Saturday:

7pm  £93,500 (I don't have 7.15pm - would be similar anyway)

Close  £153,500

Matched on:

Leah     £128,500
Andrea     £9,000
Mike    £7,750
Matt    £3,100

40k in running; plenty to go around

60k even

Can someone in a nutshell give me an indication of what went on here?  I didn't watch any of it but did look at the betting and watched a few youtube clips of the finalists.  Wasn't Leah 1.2ish?  Be interested to know what the odds were and how they changed and also why Leah was so short? (apart from being the best singer and apparent production favourite).  Were there polls with her in a clear lead for instance?  Thought Bang Bang was an indulgent daft choice, but then again Andreas duet was quite lame too I thought.

odds at start of show on first post of thread.

I laid 1.24 at around 8.00.

When judges were doing a sort of summing up late on in the voting, it sounded like begging especially from JJ who had already lost Matt so just three left and I believe Leah drifted to almost 1/2 then as it really sounded like she wasn't getting the votes and they were pleading.

I guess a lot had been made of Leah's chart success, there weren't that many polls and probably not many voters in those there were although she did have a big lead in some.

It could also be considered that because the show had suffered such poor viewing figures and therefore a low vote, it could be possible that a marmite/hype act like Leah would beat the others especially as she had three fairly MOR performers against her potentially vote splitting.

As it turned out, the final had good viewing figures and it looks like the casuals turned up to vote.

I have heard some talk on TV shows that Andrea is another poor winner and won because of her disability and that Leah should have won being the better singer yadda yadda yadda, but can anyone really say that Leah is a better singer?  Andrea has an excellent voice - not suited to all of the songs she sang, but still a clear distinctive vocal.  I'm not even convinced that Leah can sing - or at least can sing in tune for any length of time.  She was certainly all over the place on Saturday night.

And i sat on a malteser for an hour, if that helps

Leah hit 1.12

thanks squares.. re chart success you mean itunes of her performances?

After the first sound of songs, not much change. I think the market was waiting to see the duets, which many people felt decided last year`s winner. Mike`s was ok, but not great, after which his drift began, from low double figures out to, eventually, 25 or 30. Andrea`s duet was a disaster, but she didn`t drift so far, maybe 14? About  this time, Leah hit the 1.12. The third round song pretty much killed off Mike. As Andrea was finishing her song, her price was heading in to 5.5 or 6 
All accompanied by some of the most blatant pimping/begging I can recall in many RTV series.

All figures given above are very vague, but that`s roughly what happened.

And, yes, when singing the right songs, Andrea`s tone is beautiful. Not that car-crash of a duet, though. Presumably all part of the plot to get Leah over the line.