****IACGMOOH tuesdays show - eric v the critters/others ****

Insiders on this one    I have great XF and spoty books. Hopeful on SCD, not layed DVO too heavily

Never seen anyone have a great show like that I go out. Guest I can understand, a bit of a koont at the end of the day

and go out*

Rosie going tonight goes against everything I know about reality TV, those trying to backwards fit the facts into what happened don't have me convinced.

Jolly Hockey Sticks the first porno i ever watched,cheered me up thinking about that!

Rosie in that bath must have brought it all back

"Rosie going tonight goes against everything I know about reality TV, those trying to backwards fit the facts into what happened don't have me convinced."

I try to think of myself as a voter (rather than a wounded crassly imbalanced book builder) who had just seen Monday night’s show. “I’ve voted for Rosemary before and I’m pretty sure I’m going to vote for her in the final, after all that’s the important one isn’t it? I won’t vote tonight though.”

Please check, whoever has a recording of Monday 26th show – I think the big Ant & Dec voting reminder was soon after the Hugo argument.

All hindsight of course but I think more likely than a fix (the other possibility).

I’ve just seen the beginning of last night’s show which I missed at the time. I accept Mach that it is scrabbling to find reasons after the event and may not be solid but:

Rosemary’s spiel at the beginning indicated she was quite a game-player. Her regret was about her own situation. She said that she had tried hard to hold her annoyance with Hugo in (because she thought she’d look bad if she kicked off) and secondly she said that she was sure she was leaving that day because of the row.

Most winners are game-players but they hide it.

How many times can anyone stand to hear "Oh my giddy aunt".

I rest my case.

And Eric saying "ÿou talk down to people and you shouldn't" was another nail in the coffin.

"How many times can anyone stand to hear "Oh my giddy aunt"."

I don't remember her saying it once but that's just me

Nov 28, 2012 -- 7:47AM, Henry VIII wrote:

I’ve just seen the beginning of last night’s show which I missed at the time. I accept Mach that it is scrabbling to find reasons after the event and may not be solid but:Rosemary’s spiel at the beginning indicated she was quite a game-player. Her regret was about her own situation. She said that she had tried hard to hold her annoyance with Hugo in (because she thought she’d look bad if she kicked off) and secondly she said that she was sure she was leaving that day because of the row.Most winners are game-players but they hide it.

I thought it was all good stuff, especially the 'i don't give a toss' bit

Obviously I read that slightly wrong and voters sided with Hugo

I still think it was more to do with voter apathy

By the way if a lot of us on here look to be losing big in the Autumn Treble (potentially anyway) who the feck is winning?

GB2 - as an aside, why have you been so dead against DVO from the outset?  I know the rationale behind potential reasons she can't win (already trained dancer, ambitious blonde bombshell etc.), but surely she was always one to have on-side?

It goes back to point about being a percentage player.  I would always far rather cover the obvious candidates (whether a DVO or Jahmene) rather than go into a final with a big red.  But that is why I never make as much as the true gamblers on here of course!

Anyway, I have Charlie and David left as my potential wins on IAC (Ashley a small loss, but jumped on the train half way through in case), all bar UJ for a decent profit in XF and Louis / DVO in SCD (small loss on Kimberley, big red the rest).

IAC is a bit different as it's so fast moving and can change very quickly - but in a long game like XF or SCD you really don't ever need to make a loss...

You might run up a big red on DVO as you may think she'd be early/mid b2

Not gonna happen if they make sure she's top every week OC

What's the odds of her being top in the semi?

1.01 I would think!

"I thought it was all good stuff, especially the 'i don't give a toss' bit
Obviously I read that slightly wrong and voters sided with Hugo"

Not such good stuff when "I don't give a toss" = "I'm so competitive I give a huge toss and am deeply disappointed in myself."

Did you think it came across that way?  I thought she was genuine myself

I think it could be read both ways GB - and therein lies the problem.  I don't think it was apathy - I agree with Henry, her supporters simply skipped a night due to the argument with Hugo and attitude in the fall out.

A shame as I'm sure she'd have bounced back after a great show last night, particularly towards the end.

don't think it was apathy - I agree with Henry, her supporters simply skipped a night due to the argument with Hugo and attitude in the fall out.

That's apathy

You might run up a big red on DVO as you may think she'd be early/mid b2

Did anyone really think that GB?  I'm surprised that seasoned specials punters would think that either DVO or Jahmene wouldn't make semi-finals.  That's not after-timing either, they were always likely candidates to go far even if you didn't fancy them to win.

I know you didn't like potato head from the outset, but once his back story became clear (and that was as early as week 2 iirc) then he was always going to be a contender.

Tbf I backed Jahmene heavily when it was clear he was doing ok in the vote and Ella wasn't

At the start he was the archetypal candidate they like to get rid of early for me

And yes, OC people thought DVO could be a surprise B2

Still can

At the start he was the archetypal candidate they like to get rid of early for me

I think plenty thought the same about Marcus last year...  Sometimes it pays to just stick with the obvious MOR candidate.

I think DVO has Strictly in the bag - by far and away the best dancer and I'm not picking up much of the negativity predicted by forumites at the start.

Don't see any reason why Louis should beat her now.

Nov 28, 2012 -- 9:57AM, Dizzy42 wrote:

At the start he was the archetypal candidate they like to get rid of early for meI think plenty thought the same about Marcus last year...  Sometimes it pays to just stick with the obvious MOR candidate.

Fair enough, yes.  Good time to note Marcus never topped a vote, and I think he was far better than single candle jahmene

I didn't like Marcus at the start, but he grew on me a lot

Nov 28, 2012 -- 9:58AM, Dizzy42 wrote:

I think DVO has Strictly in the bag - by far and away the best dancer and I'm not picking up much of the negativity predicted by forumites at the start.Don't see any reason why Louis should beat her now.

I think you'll be surprised

Perhaps. But then I never thought Rosemary was the bet of the year at 5/2 either!

No, Chris at 200/1 was bet of the year

Good time to note Marcus never topped a vote, and I think he was far better than single candle jahmene

Marcus never topped the vote and as far as we are aware neither has Jahmene.  Like another singing candle Rebecca all were still dead certs for the final having polled consistently high throughout.

I'm not saying that the IAC vote was wrong last night, just that if any of the others were eliminated we would find reasons.
when I look at the reasons for any of them going last night I find the reasons for Rosie going not very obvious at all.

Eric, liked by men not by women that vote had already been B2 was a bit nasty of course he could go, polling badly
Hugo, already B2 not a great show for him traded odds on no surprise in him going, polling badly, very wet
David, already B2 had little air time, was arogant at times
Ash, little air time, american see rule 1.01, blonde, twitter was likeing but not voting,
Charley, never got to do any trials, bit with the kid came to late or worked against her, eastenders curse

When Ant and Dec go through the candidates, "it's not you", "it might be you", if you're told it might be you, are we certain that the person is actually in the bottom 2, or is it just a name they read out to keep us guessing. They always say at the start 'in no particular order'. Do we know for certain that the person who is told it might be them but who doesn't go, was definitely in the bottom 2?

No Biscuit. In previous years it's normally been the real b2, but not always.

We just don't know

Just on the DVO v Louis debate....I was pro DVO early when most were against,but after this weekend I've switched horses and am now with Louis.My first series of watching this,but it looks like to me Louis is being under marked in preparation for a late "improvement" whereas I disagree with Dizz about public opinion on DVO....she's by far the best dancer,but that only reinforces public opinion that she's a ringer.

GeorgeBrush 28 Nov 12 10:27 
No Biscuit. In previous years it's normally been the real b2, but not always.

We just don't know





Ok thanks, so mach is wrong with his comments when he says of certain people, "already B2"

Yes, I'd go with the assumption that most are real, but treat with caution

I assumed Eric was bottom 2 in the trial vs Colin

Nov 28, 2012 -- 10:40AM, hemsby wrote:

Just on the DVO v Louis debate....I was pro DVO early when most were against,but after this weekend I've switched horses and am now with Louis.My first series of watching this,but it looks like to me Louis is being under marked in preparation for a late "improvement" whereas I disagree with Dizz about public opinion on DVO....she's by far the best dancer,but that only reinforces public opinion that she's a ringer.

You've probably done that at exactly the right time

I squared up on the two a touch last week, but was then getting 3.7 Louis when people thought he was in danger

When people talk about the show nobody even seems to mention DVO

The Eric, Colin  bottom 2 was 100% the real bottom 2

I think most are bottom 2 but 1 or 2 aren't ie Mark last year. I don't think David was bottom 2. By the way, why keep the phone lines open longer last night than most nights? Think it was 9.38 when they closed them.

This autumn's shows have been the hardest to fathom since I've been taking tv betting seriously - which is a good 8 years or so now.

TM was 1st Ashley
              2nd David
              3rd. Charley
Not that means anything

Last night both surprised me and cost me... thought Shergar was nailed to stay. Ho Hum!

TV polls had her on 52%

29 last night

Shame it didn't turn up during the show

Almost half turned off her and I guess apathy explains the rest

Maybe receiving letters from home tonight.....hoping for some Charlie tears

Plus a few forum votes of course. Far too early to write off tvpolls though

Nov 28, 2012 -- 12:41PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:

Plus a few forum votes of course. Far too early to write off tvpolls though

Not going to write it off on other shows,but its been way off on this show so far.52% to out in 2 days in a 6 way vote is a shocker,even allowing for a bad show inbetween.

It might only be right when most of us on here are right.

Why don't we do a poll on here of how many of us vote on tv polls and how many times!

Down to 29 tho....   We know how volatile this show is. I don't doubt she was extremely popular just a day or two before

Start a thread lucky - a TVpoll amnesty

Down to 29 after the result was announced

Never started a thread in 10 years on here!

Yep, a problem, and I suspect the money coming for Ash yesterday had summat to do with that

LOL at the photo of Charlie's daughter's face in the Sun.

a mix of sympathetic and unsympathetic comments following the Daily Hell article about the situation with Charlie and her daughter.

I read them too squares.....sympathetic to the daughter and to a degree Charlie,scathing of the programme was the gist of what I read.

well, quite a few saying why isn't the child at school and she's hardly suffering in a luxury hotel with her Nan while her Mum's earning a shedload of cash for a few weeks apart.

Too much is made of these celebs missing their kids on these programmes.  It's not as if they're on a nine month tour of duty in Afghanistan.

Although imo, these programmes shouldn't bring family members into the equation.

Only put them in popularity order and read the first 20 or so....your more thorough than me

Agree with your sentiments though,I guess a bit of emotion makes good TV whatever the rights or wrongs in the prods eyes.Just to warn you,I think there could be a segment tonight with letters from home

loads more sympathy for Charlie and sprog on DS than in the heartless Daily Hell.

ffs, letters from home - they'll all be reunited over the next three days

letters from home... floods of tears all round... ffs - they make out like they've been held in a POW camp for the last 5 years.

Going back a little.
If I'd seen Rosemary had dropped from 52-29 % in one day then I'd have been worried about her safety.
Unfortunately TVpolls is useless for elims as we don't get the results until after the show.

TVPolls = horrendous after timers

It is pretty pointless doing their poll until the final, unless they send the results out before the show

Agreed fig. I certainly may have squared up a little anyway

As Tvpolls man was doing

Cannot see apathy being a problem. The people that vote don't analyse things like we do. As discussed before we've seen table toppers in DOI romp the vote when they are virtually guaranteed to be safe, and would win the skate-off in any case.

I suspect we will find Rosemary has been polling much lower than anyone thought. The argument dented it enough to drop to the bottom.

Always remember George Harrison? dominated the series he was in and lit up the screen every time his footage was shown. He quit but his polling was dreadful when most would have anticipated him leading.

True. We had a good laugh about it

George Hamilton lol.

I worked out Dougy last time, but maybe that was a fluke

It never seems to be easy unless their's a Gino or Stacey

George Harrison would have polled a bit higher, even as a corpse

Hamilton yes! I remember the scenario not the name lol. iirc he was the Rose of that year the forum favourite.

Brian probably the winner if he took his pills.

I thought Gino was way ahead, or is that after timing

I was late on Gino, he was an absolute faking nob. But cruised up.

I only got on between 2 and 3, but that's more than enough

Ideal combination of cheek and a moist effect I guess

Producer backing is why I went for him in the end. Had the mother of all edits

is the trial Charlie and Ashley tonight?

Yes squares

cheers

Hope the prods are trying to save the girls tonight, i need a bit of luck.

I'd like to see Ashley go out tonight. Charlie a shoo in as the last girl vs. 3 guys then. Probably be Charlie who goes

cider you talk so much sense,unlike that **** mr brush.any chance of telling us beforehand who will be evicted tonight or is it the usual 9.57 post to tell us all how much you made on a cert eviction and how your green is looking so good.oh and of course the smiley face,not forgeting to p.m your mates to tell us all how good you are.

  you're shaping up as a troll

lol frances I do struggle to form and state an opinion before the event

do you remember the tv series,dear john. well john,s friend kirk st moritz [led a double life}thats george.posts non stop on here during the day,at night mops up in the w**k booths in soho.probably tells the punters in there how green he is.

I could report you   But won't

Ok cider, chance for a before time.  Who goes tonight? :)

you have now gone up in my estimation

Don't have enough time old chum. Too much sp unk to slop up

Hayes outright gone for a walk

no problem kirk. keep your chins up

Haye Brooks flip,flop

Someone just checked the voting figures

All Rose again

Ashley wins this thing imo. Men and women alike will vote for her as she has behaved so decently and is obviously a lovely woman with a healthy sense of humour and a cracking rack of course.

Charlie has good t1ts

Only noticed since she became my only decent green