X-Factor 2nd Elimination Thoughts.

Rylan  1107
Kye     952
Mk1    1375
Jade     993
D3       1358
Lucy     1883
James    2394
Ella       2754
UJ         2626
Chris      687
Jahm      1546
Mel         982

youtube likes balanced figures. Rylan was down for hours, so he looks mid table

Any other price in bottom2 combo (which includes all Kye permutations) keeps getting layed higher than Kye individually for bottom 2

Melanie surely worst?

terrible performance

Mel was rubbish but pimp still means a extra boost

Who was the last b2 from pimp?  It has happened, I'm sure

did katie weasel not manage it?

She came 2nd    Not laughing at the suggestion, just what is possible from pimp.  Was it Rachel H?

Mel wasted her pimp somewhat. It'll be interesting when we get the voting, if you fluff your pimp it could be worse now voting is open. Can't think many people would put that as their fav performance, nothing in vt to encourage voting. Terrible styling imo and as I've wrote think the milf comment was unhelpful.

all good points cider, but on the flip side, there was a lot more mention of scotland this week.

`milf` deleted from today`s airing of the programme, alomg with Rylan`s use of his own name in `Gangnam`

Ashley McKenzie 8th of 8 B2 and eliminated

With fewer contestants:-

Danyl 4th of 4, likewise Cher
Ben Mills 3rd of 3, likewise Amelia Lily

Just think she was a touch of value in the relevant markets. Coming after Ryland a lot of households would have still been talking about that, rewinding to look at the Borelow exchange etc.

Ashley was who I was thinking yep    Btw stratos balloon on the way up if anyone wants to watch

Mk3 talentless must be in danger of bottom 2. Don't like the scouse guy and the nerve thing is probably an act. Prefer to see to see Mk3 go but reckon its going to be the scouser.

Mk3 talentless must be in danger of bottom 2. Don't like the scouse guy and the nerve thing is probably an act. Prefer to see to see Mk3 go but reckon its going to be the scouser.

I wouldn't say talentless. It was funny seeing Charlie talking about underground music tho. Underground must be a bit different to when I used to be interested

what's the feeling on Lucy spraggan? She was shockingly bad and should not be on the show anyway

Spraggan/Melanie dutch elimination?

Lucy yes but Mel no imo.

lucy will get a good sympathy vote, with her grandmother passing away this week.  emotional VT.

Lucy has a fan base, will be safe for another few weeks I think

why is Maloney still so short? Unless he has 2 in the bottom 2 theres a minute chance Gary will lose acts in consecutive weeks

Why would that be, they all have 3 left??

Agreed SSIP, Gary's lot are so weak that they're going to have to string them along or he could actually be out by end of week 4.

District 3 the clear value to go imo

There's an interesting spread there, jack. selling overs you would only lose if one was 1st or second.

Baloney was given a huge deramp.

I can't see they would pass up a chance to remove Baloney

Kye isn't as good as they hoped I suspect. He takes himself far too seriously as well.

Nice spot cider, thanks

Maloney has a significant level of Likes on FB. Usually not massively accurate but in this case it's quite a significant margin over others.

Charming picture of Rylan here:
http://p.twimg.com/A44ezQICEAAlP6v.jpg

they tried hard to get baloney the wildcard spot to drag out more drama, I don't think they are finished with baloney just yet

Melanie has a fine voice. It was the arrangement of the song that wrecked things for her.

Oct 14, 2012 -- 5:49PM, mach wrote:

they tried hard to get baloney the wildcard spot to drag out more drama, I don't think they are finished with baloney just yet

Wildcard? there was a wildcard?

I really have little clue this week, as I think it's pretty wide open. Can make convincing cases for any of Rylan, Melanie, D3, Jade, Kye for bottom two. I suspect Chris will be safe but there are few stats to back that up with.

If you have a sly account and they actually lay you a bet

Melanie to be saved by the judges is 12/1


If shes in the bottom 2, which is about a 4/1 chance she would be short odds on to be saved against Maloney who looks certain to be bottom

seriously do not believe Maloney will be going despite detesting him and his back story

2.54 laid, trying to get more

You're not trying hard enough

drifted now 2.74 to lay!

Just don't see why Maloney would lose his existing support this week. His draw is the only worry.

He's certainly drifting well now

Go to TVPolls  Homepage       
         
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  Please click here  to join our  X Factor Surveys Mailing List     
         
         
         
  THE X FACTOR 2012 SURVEY RESULTS (AFTER WEEK 2 PERFORMANCES)   
         
  Votes Cast:  Sat 10.20pm 13/10/2012 - 6.30pm Sun 14/10/2012   
         
  NB. Poll results are now weighted  by age and gender and filtered to try and match the X Factor Voters demographic as closely as possible.   
         
         
         
         
         
  Total Survey Responders: 231     
         
         
         
  Who will you vote for to SAVE and Stay in the X Factor?   
         
  District 3 (Groups) 5% █████   
  Lucy Spraggan (Girls) 4% ████   
  Kye Sones (Overs) 6% ██████   
  Jahmene Douglas (Boys) 12% ███████████   
  James Arthur (Boys) 7% ███████   
  Ella Henderson (Girls) 31% █████████████████████████â...    
  Union J (Groups) 9% ████████   
  Melanie Masson (Overs) 3% ██   
  Jade Ellis (Girls) 9% ████████   
  MK1 (Groups) 2% â–ˆ   
  Rylan Clark (Boys) 4% ████   
  Christopher Maloney (Overs) 8% ███████   
    100%     
         
         
  Who do you want to win The X Factor 2012?   
         
  District 3 (Groups) 3% ██   
  Lucy Spraggan (Girls) 4% ████   
  Kye Sones (Overs) 6% ██████   
  Jahmene Douglas (Boys) 15% ███████████████   
  James Arthur (Boys) 7% ███████   
  Ella Henderson (Girls) 35% █████████████████████████â... ███   
  Union J (Groups) 6% ██████   
  Melanie Masson (Overs) 2% â–ˆ   
  Jade Ellis (Girls) 7% ███████   
  MK1 (Groups) 3% ██   
  Rylan Clark (Boys) 3% ███   
  Christopher Maloney (Overs) 8% ███████   
    100%     
         
         
         
         
         
         
  Who's your 2nd Favourite?     
         
  District 3 (Groups) 1% â–ˆ   
  Lucy Spraggan (Girls) 5% █████   
  Kye Sones (Overs) 6% ██████   
  Jahmene Douglas (Boys) 18% ██████████████████   
  James Arthur (Boys) 14% ██████████████   
  Ella Henderson (Girls) 18% ██████████████████   
  Union J (Groups) 6% ██████   
  Melanie Masson (Overs) 5% █████   
  Jade Ellis (Girls) 6% ██████   
  MK1 (Groups) 3% ███   
  Rylan Clark (Boys) 6% ██████   
  Christopher Maloney (Overs) 10% ██████████   
    100%     
         
         
         
         
         
         
  Who's your LEAST favourite?     
         
  District 3 (Groups) 0%     
  Lucy Spraggan (Girls) 8% ███████   
  Kye Sones (Overs) 11% ███████████   
  Jahmene Douglas (Boys) 6% █████   
  James Arthur (Boys) 3% ███   
  Ella Henderson (Girls) 4% ███   
  Union J (Groups) 1% â–ˆ   
  Melanie Masson (Overs) 4% ███   
  Jade Ellis (Girls) 2% ██   
  MK1 (Groups) 10% █████████   
  Rylan Clark (Boys) 38% █████████████████████████â... ██████   
  Christopher Maloney (Overs) 14% █████████████   
    100%     
         
         
         
         
         
         
  Who's your 2nd LEAST favourite?     
         
  District 3 (Groups) 10% █████████   
  Lucy Spraggan (Girls) 25% █████████████████████████   
  Kye Sones (Overs) 6% █████   
  Jahmene Douglas (Boys) 0%     
  James Arthur (Boys) 1%     
  Ella Henderson (Girls) 2% â–ˆ   
  Union J (Groups) 4% ███   
  Melanie Masson (Overs) 6% █████   
  Jade Ellis (Girls) 2% â–ˆ   
  MK1 (Groups) 16% ███████████████   
  Rylan Clark (Boys) 15% ██████████████   
  Christopher Maloney (Overs) 14% █████████████   
    100%     
         
         
         
         
         
  Which Act has the best Personality/Personalities?   
         
  District 3 (Groups) 6% █████   
  Lucy Spraggan (Girls) 10% █████████   
  Kye Sones (Overs) 1%     
  Jahmene Douglas (Boys) 6% █████   
  James Arthur (Boys) 6% █████   
  Ella Henderson (Girls) 14% █████████████   
  Union J (Groups) 2% â–ˆ   
  Melanie Masson (Overs) 3% ██   
  Jade Ellis (Girls) 8% ███████   
  MK1 (Groups) 4% ███   
  Rylan Clark (Boys) 27% █████████████████████████â...    
  Christopher Maloney (Overs) 15% ██████████████   
    100%     
         
         
         
         
         
         
  Who do you THINK will win X Factor 2012?   
         
  District 3 (Groups) 1%     
  Lucy Spraggan (Girls) 3% ██   
  Kye Sones (Overs) 2% â–ˆ   
  Jahmene Douglas (Boys) 6% █████   
  James Arthur (Boys) 8% ███████   
  Ella Henderson (Girls) 58% █████████████████████████â... ██████████████████████████   
  Union J (Groups) 6% █████   
  Melanie Masson (Overs) 0%     
  Jade Ellis (Girls) 4% ███   
  MK1 (Groups) 2% â–ˆ   
  Rylan Clark (Boys) 0%     
  Christopher Maloney (Overs) 2% â–ˆ   
  DON'T KNOW 10% █████████   
    100%     
         
         
   Who do you think is in the most Danger of being in the Bottom 2?   
         
  District 3 (Groups) 12% ███████████   
  Lucy Spraggan (Girls) 2% â–ˆ   
  Kye Sones (Overs) 11% ██████████   
  Jahmene Douglas (Boys) 0%     
  James Arthur (Boys) 0%     
  Ella Henderson (Girls) 1%     
  Union J (Groups) 0%     
  Melanie Masson (Overs) 2% â–ˆ   
  Jade Ellis (Girls) 2% â–ˆ   
  MK1 (Groups) 13% █████████████   
  Rylan Clark (Boys) 38% █████████████████████████â... ███████   
  Christopher Maloney (Overs) 12% ███████████   
  DON'T KNOW 8% ███████   
    100%

I have hammered mk1 and mel based on the poll
was close last week, ad rylan close to bottom against market expectations

Melanie not great there

*had

Only 2% think she is in danger.

Not great re Lucy either. Has got me worried.

Yeah, but nobody likes her. Which is more of the problem surely? Looking at these I think Maloney's 8% is enough to keep him safe for another week or two, and it's going to be D3, Kye, Melanie and MK1 who are looking more at risk this week.

One of the hardest weeks I've ever seen. District 3, Spraggan, Kye, Melanie, Maloney all could be b2.

Think Spraggan will be safe with enough of a fanbase support for a few weeks, but some of the others could really be in trouble.

think Kye might be in bottom 2 this week. Poor performance last night and can't think what demographic will be following him.

Lucy's tears would normally be enough

D3 safe for me. They already have a pretty hardcore following before the show even started.

come on people, lump on the fav

She didn't do enough tears - she ogled her female dancers instead on the week her nan died. Might have backfired somewhat :)

lol fink

tbf some of them dancers are well worth an ogle

no liquidity in the elimination market ffs

I'm struggling to see why Rylan would have gained any more fans to help keep him in... 7/2 with sb to be in bottom two & 13-2 to go looks value to me.

Chalk and cheese, Ryland was a proper novelty act last night, different class to week 1.

backed Melanie to go @36 and forgot i 'd done it

Whats odds was melanie on the night, and in final two?

For anyone following my advice i got them both!


rogerthatletmetrywithanotherfilm 12 Oct 12 12:45 Joined: 12 Jul 12 | Topic/replies: 382 | Blogger: rogerthatletmetrywithanotherfilm's blog
Didnt know that bunnyman. New sh%t has come to light. Well thats a turn up for the books. That makes sense as to Louis comments regarding his recent cruise. It didnt make sense at the time.

Who are your fancies for the weekend? MK3 and Mel are in danger. Think song selection is key.

You got 1 Roger

How many different threads are you boasting about this on Roger?

He thought it was 2, it turns out only 1

This week confirmed that TVPolls is so good because it does not just poll us lot. 31% said Rylan was most in trouble this week whereas on here we basically just assumed he was safe and I don't recall anyone saying different.

38% even

So just 62% are us on here

Sounds like a good mix to me

i got two, melanie and district3. i dont watch much but like not too over analyse, mk3 meant the band with 3 in. and helvithan im not boasting im just trying to state to the disbelievers. great record in the specials market, i didnt have a bet on so really am not boasting, just saying i got both right and will hope to maybe invest something this years on xfactor. wasnt about this weekend.

Shaky Rylan Sones and District MK could be in trouble this week.

So that'll be 5 out of the 6 outsiders in potential trouble hemsby? Thanks for the tip

It's perfectly obvious the two I'm tipping.....

I thought District MK was a new group

Oct 15, 2012 -- 9:27PM, George Bailey wrote:

This week confirmed that TVPolls is so good because it does not just poll us lot. 31% said Rylan was most in trouble this week whereas on here we basically just assumed he was safe and I don't recall anyone saying different.

But that 31% got it wrong?!

38% even

He's saying that is evidence that tvpolls is not made from just shrewdie gamblers dizzy

I would point to the strong showing of Christopher as an even bigger indication of that!

Doesn't make it any more accurate of course.  I am somewhat sceptical - not just due to all of us subscribing and skewing results somewhat, but also it's a very small sample compared to last year.

How many last year, do you remember?

on the 2010 last 4 they had 445 responders

I'm not sure tvpolls bothered with xf last year?

That stuff's all far too complicated for me!  If my ears fail I'm in big trouble!!

Total Survey Responders: 258     
                  
                  
      Who do you want to win The X Factor 2011?
                  
      Marcus Collins (Boys)     25%     █████████████████████████
      Little Mix (Groups)     33%     █████████████████████████â...
      Mischa Bryan (Girls)     13%     ████████████
      Amelia Lily (Girls)     28%     █████████████████████████â...
            100%

bear

I don't go too much on these surveys myself but I do think for such a major TV final 258 people is not many to go by?

maybe not but their record is second to none.

I thought they had got up to 750+ subscribers last year but obviously I was wrong...

Cheers bear

Cheers bear, same number as last year then, but well down on 2010

bear

They do have Amelia as second though and Little Mix a little further ahead than thay actually won by.

im not convinced they actually reveal the correct number of responders for various reasons

Looks like the poll straight after the semi though Lou

Didn't Amelia have a very good semi?

No ones perfect Lou

Tvpolls are amazingly good considering the low numbers of responders Lou. Nobody's gonna be perfect oc, but to get LM top at that stage says something

Who do you want to win The X Factor 2011?
                  
      Craig Colten (Boys)     14%     ██████████████
      Marcus Collins (Boys)     20%     ████████████████████
      Little Mix (Groups)     24%     ███████████████████████
      Mischa Bryan (Girls)     16%     ████████████████
      Janet Devlin (Girls)     15%     ██████████████
      Amelia Lily (Girls)     11%     ███████████
            100%     
                  

They had Little Mix on top with 6 acts left Lou when many on here were still slating them

bear/George

Fair enough.  Does seem a very low sample though.

Not many people on here were slating LM with six left to be honest.  By that point they were well up in the betting too...

I think Lou knows what i meant

Have to admit I was.  I thought they were so average.

Which Act would you LEAST like to win?
                  
      Craig Colten (Boys)     12%     ████████████
      Marcus Collins (Boys)     6%     █████
      Little Mix (Groups)     10%     █████████
      Mischa Bryan (Girls)     31%     █████████████████████████â...
      Janet Devlin (Girls)     29%     █████████████████████████â...
      Amelia Lily (Girls)     13%     ████████████
            100%     
                  
                  

      Which Act has the best voice(s)?     
                  
      Craig Colten (Boys)     17%     ████████████████
      Marcus Collins (Boys)     13%     █████████████
      Little Mix (Groups)     8%     ████████
      Mischa Bryan (Girls)     31%     █████████████████████████â... â–ˆ
      Janet Devlin (Girls)     13%     ████████████
      Amelia Lily (Girls)     17%     █████████████████
            100%     


This is from the same poll on the same day Lou. it seems the responders dont view it so much as a singing contest as you do

Yes they don't.

haha hemsby enjoyed that post!

and the tvpolls which tv shows do you use. i tend not to take notice but that LM stat could sway me over!

and i now know its mk2 and district 3, x factor tbf has got a wide range of acts this year so it will be interesting from that point. thats why i have district3 down as dead dogs as theres alot of diversity and their just surplus, theres no need for a potential battle of the bands as theyve got too many different acts imho.

Oct 16, 2012 -- 10:53AM, bearcub wrote:

im not convinced they actually reveal the correct number of responders for various reasons

What reasons? Please elaborate.