SCD 2012 GENERAL FRED

LOL yes. The more people have seen of her the less they've liked her

that was over two weeks of dances wasn't it, and her waltz was at the end of a very poor night iirc.

Yep, week 2 (1st vote week) was pretty grim after the week 1

The Who do you think is in the most Danger of being Eliminated next? result also points to Dani out first.

The poll for those who didn't receive the email

Votes Cast:  Mon 17/12/2012 - 1pm Sat 22/12/2012               
                         
  NB. Poll results are now weighted  by age and gender and filtered to try and match the  Voters demographic as closely as possible.   
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
  Total Survey Responders: 248                     
                         
                         
                         
  Who will you vote for to SAVE to make it to the Final 3?             
    100%                     
  Dani Harmer 14% ██████████████               
  Louis Smith 32% █████████████████████████�...          
  Kimberley Walsh 39% █████████████████████████�... ███████       
  Denise Van Outen 16% ███████████████               
                         
                         
                         
                         
  NB. These are responses before Saturday's Final. A lot depends on how things pan out in the show. How well they dance etc.   
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
  Who do you want to win Strictly Come Dancing 2012?               
    100%                     
  Dani Harmer 14% ██████████████               
  Louis Smith 32% █████████████████████████�...          
  Kimberley Walsh 39% █████████████████████████�... ███████       
  Denise Van Outen 16% ███████████████               
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
  Who's your 2nd Favourite?                     
    100%                     
  Dani Harmer 38% █████████████████████████�... ██████       
  Louis Smith 17% █████████████████             
  Kimberley Walsh 34% █████████████████████████�... ███         
  Denise Van Outen 11% ███████████                 
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
  Who's your LEAST favourite?                     
    100%                     
  Dani Harmer 15% ███████████████               
  Louis Smith 26% ██████████████████████████           
  Kimberley Walsh 19% ██████████████████             
  Denise Van Outen 40% █████████████████████████�... ████████       
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
  Who's the Best Dancer?                     
    100%                     
  Dani Harmer 4% ███                   
  Louis Smith 8% ███████                 
  Kimberley Walsh 43% █████████████████████████�... ████████████     
  Denise Van Outen 45% █████████████████████████�... ██████████████     
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
  Who do you think is in the most Danger of being Eliminated next?           
    100%                     
  Dani Harmer 2% █                   
  Louis Smith 23% ██████████████████████             
  Kimberley Walsh 6% █████                   
  Denise Van Outen 40% █████████████████████████�... ████████       
  DON'T KNOW 30% █████████████████████████�...          
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
  Who do you THINK will win X Factor 2012?                 
    100%                     
  Dani Harmer 4% ███                   
  Louis Smith 15% ███████████████               
  Kimberley Walsh 45% █████████████████████████�... ██████████████     
  Denise Van Outen 17% ████████████████               
  DON'T KNOW 19% ██████████████████             
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
  Who Most DESERVES to win Strictly Come Dancing 2012?             
    100%                     
  Dani Harmer 19% ██████████████████             
  Louis Smith 26% ██████████████████████████           
  Kimberley Walsh 26% ██████████████████████████           
  Denise Van Outen 29% █████████████████████████�...

This dull VW Kimbles has to a dull tune reminds me of what Matt was lumbered with in his final (ie. a dull VW to a dull tune) and he didn't end up in the B2 with it first time out.

The double dance off/b2 counts for something surely, especially if the judges or prods decide to make a big deal of it.

What do you mean Cider?

DVO tf for later trades looks decent to me

Potentially guilt tripping the public Henners

Oh yes

Be a bigger comeback from Lazarus if she wins this...anyone else sticking to a big red her or reducing/greening at generous odds?

than Lazarus

Can't envisage it to be enough to win GB2 but could shake up first out. The judges find it very hard to accept that the public don't always like the people they do, and I think they have a fair amount of influence over the production.

I can see finger pointing from Len and maybe even comment on the public perception of DVO

Thanks Cider...tempted but just feels like wasting money. Been there with Sweden this year. Looks like the market is starting to reflect TVPolls a bit.  Spent a chunk of my louis green having her a decent green this week so feel a bit vindicated.

her being kim

Same here GB2 - still win twice as much on Louis as Kimbers, but I had to have both covered going into final.

Its a real shame we won't find out just how easily Louis wins by tonight

Who do you THINK will win X Factor 2012?                                       
          100%                                                 
     Dani Harmer     4%     ███                                            
     Louis Smith     15%     ███████████████                                  
     Kimberley Walsh     45%     █████████████████████████�...          
     Denise Van Outen     17%     ████████████████                                  
     DON'T KNOW     19%     ██████████████████    


Prolly fair if it's now a singing competition

"Think" meaningless as a rule but that's interesting.  Surely this final poll doesn't just reflect our books...for once?

well if 17% think DVO will win after 2 bottom 2 's in a row then isnt this polling all but worthless? If 1 or 2 % then fine

How can 19% not know what they think?? Must have the IQ of a carrot

Maybe they just don't know who will win.  They'd make decent traders

Btw that poll was for XF, not SCD

TV Polls Result looks a bit odd if we are hoping it is representative of the voters... (aside from 45% of the people thinking Kimberley "will win the X Factor this year") - almost a quarter of the sample think Louis is likely to be out in 4th. Seems odd.

My other complaint with TV Polls - perhaps They could post the info on here is as follows:

1) How many people are in the sample?
2) Results say the have been "weighted" e.g. "changed" - that's fine but could you tell us what you actually "do" to do that? - you can't actually weight many variables without software that costs £5000 per year. Or at least - which variables did you weight? Did you do gender and age? Did you weight it to a likely demographic of a "viewer" or a "person in the UK" and what did you use to get those numbers?
3) If the above is difficult, why not give us a "raw" figure (unweighted/unchanged) and show us the Age and Gender % figure and we can work it out for ourselves?

Thanks!

248 in the sample of which 241 is me

And I think I know what I think...I think

Sorry yes, sample size at the top. Rest of questions are valid!

I only ever really look at the who do you want to win figures for OR. I'm not surprised or alarmed by the tv polls result. It reflects a couple of weeks of massive Kimble pimping and generally rather underwhelming performances by Louis. This is just one of these situations where as gamblers we have to use our 'superior' knowledge of the format and the dances and probably the motivation to vote [:cool:

For me it also confirms those hoping Kimble out next are hopelessly optimistic

DR pics up now.

DVO and James look like they're delivering Milk Tray tonight.

A not very elegant Dani with legs akimbo and white knickers.  Vincent looks like he's preparing a hog to roast.

Very strange outfit for Kimbles - like a black jumpsuit.  Thought she had some showgirl fringed thingy.

Rehearsal pics up.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/strictlycomedancing/posts/Grand-Final-Dress-Rehearsal

Tellymix have a survey which is basically worthless as it shows Kimbers ahead but it is at the bottom of an article about how awesome she is..

Kimberley Walsh (40%, 2,303 Votes)
Louis Smith (30%, 1,721 Votes)
Dani Harmer (18%, 1,042 Votes)
Denise Van Outen (12%

http://tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/strictly-come-dancing/125508-tellymixs-strictly-come-dancing-2012-winner-poll-vote-now.html#ixzz2FnVZA9y7

"Entertainmentwise" also have a potentially bias poll annoyingly stuck under an otherwise-lovely-big-picture-of-Kim-looking-v-sexy with:

9.67%    Denise Van Outen
15.19%    Dani Harmer
34.53%    Kimberley Walsh
40.61%    Louis Smith

Much else going on?

Some forum grumbling that Kimbers' judges chosen dance is "the one when she was in the bottom 2" - anyone spot that?

yes, us lot on here days ago

Thanks Squares, Bexley. 

From Twitter:

Denise Van Outen Verified ‏@denise_vanouten On my way to BBC for Strictly final preparations. Can't believe its the last day!

@denise_vanouten Top Tip - There's an elimination early Saturday night Denise - so no need to exhaust yourself practicing the Charleston ;-)


Figgy you have email from me. Can you have a look?  ;-)

Tellymix have a survey which is basically worthless as it shows Kimbers ahead but it is at the bottom of an article about how awesome she is..

A common occurrence and confirms how easily the GBP can be manipulated at times.  Derren Brown makes a living out of it.

Just seen Charlie.

I'm not sure how you can a treble with 4 runners

I've never had any multiple bets on here, so I have no idea I'm afraid.

have a treble*

What do you want to know Charlie?  Might be able to help.

"3) If the above is difficult, why not give us a "raw" figure (unweighted/unchanged) and show us the Age and Gender % figure and we can work it out for ourselves?"

Mr TVPolls that would be an excellent idea. That's how YouGov does it.

thanks squares, I have some different combos of multiples with Louis the final bet.. 

In the bet I have below, (Treble, 4 bets) do I win or lose the bet if Louis doesn't make it? Is there a difference in the payout if Louis wins/loses? I also have the same combo of 4 bets as a "double".

Cheers!

2012-12-04 16:55:04      Trebles   

O/0195027/0000008    2    300.00    Matched    0.00   

Outright Winner : Outright Winner
Louis Smith    Back    1.80    Matched   

X Factor : Outright Winner
James Arthur    Back 2.20    Won   

Outright Winner : Betting W/O Wiggins
Jessica Ennis    Back    3.25    Won   

Outright Winner : Outright Winner
Bradley Wiggins    Back    1.36    Won

atm you have 3 doubles up and 1 treble.

If Louis wins you have 6 doubles and 4 trebles.

Has the actual heatworld polls results been posted; can't see them on their site:

Earlier this week we asked you to vote for who you thought deserved to be crowned the king or queen of the dancefloor, and your votes put Kimberley ahead of the bookies’ favourite Louis Smith with 54% of the votes.

You put Dani Harmer in third place and Denise Van Outen in fourth. Sorry, Den.

Finally on TV Polls - and you do a great job, I'm a fan...

If you show the "raw" data and it "predicts the wrong winner" no-one here can complain, because it is what it is. It is only poor if you show the wrong winner AND the figures have been changed without letting us know how they were changed.. 

Cheers

squares what happens if Louis does not win in that bet?

Might be a repeat and not many voting but pattern emerging? Strictlydancingfansite:

Who would you like to win?
Dani and Vincent
13% (12 votes)
Denise and James
10% (9 votes)
Kimberley and Pasha
42% (38 votes)
Louis and Flavia
34% (31 votes)

your left with 3 doubles and 1 treble up rather than 6 doubles and 4 trebles.

Current treble a little over 8/1, doubles 7/4, tad over 6/1, tad over 3/1

you're

Thanks Squares.

George I think that a poll of regular viewers of SCD would likely show Kimbers 1 Louis 2 but not a huge gap between.  Perhaps the "entertainmentwise" poll showing Louis ahead has more casual viewers.

Given Louis has had some "ropey" weeks relative to the others, being at 30% is pretty good. As the more casual viewers tune in tonight you would expect Louis to do better in a field as the only man, Olympian and probably subject to less critisism from the judges than in recent weeks. We also know the public like him a lot (Star leaks).  I would expect Louis 1, Kimbers a respectable 2nd.

Yes me too and took the last(ish) of the 13/8 that on the HS.  SCD voters like to think they are a knowledgeable and sophisticated electorate and there will be quite a few voting for the "best"; whatever that means.

Market's been quite lively for last hour or two.

Very subtle Louis...going for the MEM and gay vote it seems:

http://i2.wp.com/metrouk2.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/louis-smith-e1356093463950.jpg?w=210

DVO is on a Celeb quiz show on ITV during the break

Another chance for people to dislike her then; serial killers have been vilified less.

I was surprised how obnoxious James was. They say he used to be rude in the early series.

he's much better when he's with less competitive/competent partners.  His best year was when he went out early and he was a sort of roving reporter on ITT and the like, was actually pretty good and quite funny.

where is the final? Is it in TVC as per or have the moved it to Blackpool or something?

made for each other as the GBP dislike him as much as her.  Flavia getting votes for Louis by contrast.  I'll give her one later.

Pasha is the biggest Pro vote puller.

DVO knows the score from the radiotimes online

Denise Van Outen, already struggling after being in the bottom two in the last two shows, has now dislocated a rib.

She had it popped back in by doctors yesterday, but is under no illusion she has any chance of getting her hands on the Glitterball trophy.

Speaking on Friday she admitted "we are the most unpopular" and said it would take a miracle for her and James Jordan to turn it around tonight.

Dark horse Dani Harmer has done fantastically well to get to the final. But her tough Showdance with professional partner Vincent Simone is causing problems. So far they have only completed the end of the dance correctly once and they caused hilarity amongst the other celebrities in rehearsals when Vincent fell on top of Dani and made the ending look like something from the Kama Sutra.

Gymnast Louis remains the one to beat.

Forgive my ignorance but what role do the judges have tonight or is the winner based purely on votes?

scores for "guidance" only...public decide

judges score for "guidance".  Public vote only though - judges' scores not included tonight.

have let my maximum red on DVO run right from the start although managed to reduce it by iteratively laying some of the rags

anyway all good as long as the GBP don't suddenly have a change of heart and start voting for her

Rick, I think they may do after that showdance.

nah

So who was the top female? Did they have a vote off or did I miss it??

non announced tara

Somwill bets be void?

nah dead heat prolly

I don't see how they can justify voiding. Must be a dead heat unless the BBC release the figures, which is a 1000 shot.

Well done and thanks for all your work on the thread again squares

Can't be a dead heat with hundreds of thousands voting.

wot bear says

Yes, thanks squares - amazes me you find time to trade given all the info you post up here during the live in-running. Would not be the same without your stellar contributions.

Signing in for the squares appreciation club

cheers guys

loads of brilliant contributors on here make it a truly great forum.

Awesome work as usual, squares. Your contributions are extremely helpful, one of those things that can be taken for granted at times but would be sorely missed

Thanks Cider.  Your contributions are awesome.  Sadly I can hardly ever join in so most of them result in much gnashing of teeth

Is this the programme SCowell is behind?

Thait Dog Can Dance!
Chrstine Bleakley hosts a one-off talent show in which contestants and their pets perform in front of Sharon Osbourne, Bill Bailey and BGT Winner Ashleigh Butler.

Excellent stuff. Thanks to all for info, especially early heads up on DVO long before Star leak. You shrewd judges were right all along!

That's another great season over, with the autumn treble landed (individually) on IAC, XF and SCD. Throw in SPOTY and the festive Number One and it's going to be another Merry Christmas in the Dizzy household.

Hope you have a great festive season one and all, wherever you are...

DVO 2nd and Kimbers 3rd according to tomorrows Star

the joint runner up result prob helped more than it hurt

Not me.
DVO 2nd was a bigger winner for me in the end.

Louis must have p1ssed up I reckon

Shows the power of the casuals and the purists to vote for the one they perceive to be the best dancer regardless of the witch hunt DVO was subject to.  Was always worried this might happen so feel justified at leveling up a 3k red for a ton or so at big odds in the final.  Losing is worse than winning is good.

...if the BBC don't let me have the answer to my who finished second FOI question I will tell THEM ...it is no longer a known unknown and their silence in the light of it being in the public domain will make them seem even more pathetic than they already are...no response to journotom from the BBC Head of Communications I see.

Louis more than 50% dvo 5% more than kim

I fancied DVO to turn over Kimberly. If Dani had been given a fair crack I suspect Kimberly would have been first out.

^ aftertiming

"Excellent stuff. Thanks to all for info, especially early heads up on DVO long before Star leak. You shrewd judges were right all along!"

No they weren't. There was no better way to create an early green book in this year's SCD than by backing DVO when she was 4s and 5s and everybody was saying lay. (She also came 2nd).

(Vain attempt to stop history being rewritten).

Not everybody Henners
And I was advocating Kimbers first out in the run up to the final. Remember the DVO guilt trip conversation. The double b2 had to have some sort of impact.

This is annoying but unsurprising news as DVO was my biggest winner for TF, & the Louis Denise straight forecast was a bigger return, if paid in full. Anyone tried/trying to get full returns on these from high st?

Henry, the comments I referred to were when I insisted that DVO was still a big threat to Louis at around the half way point when her odds were already very short. The original Star leak vindicated those saying she would not win as it proved she was not getting the votes long before she appeared in B2.

Having backed both Louis and DVO heavily at the outset, this allowed me to adjust my book when her price was false. But equally her price going into the final was far too big, so I went in again at 16s as well as top female!

Of course value can be subjective as she still didn't win - and probably would never win - so I did value the input from those who correctly predicted that DVO would not be popular with the MEMs.

What's revisionist about saying she wouldn't win and she didn't?

Personally I very rarely do single runner lays, and even rarer at odds-against. You are intrinsically backing all the other runners, it is much better to apply some science than backing lots of no hopers.

first Katya, now Flavia

Flavia and Jimi Mistry getting married

Flavia or the Glitter Ball?....mmm let me think

yeah, what a result

that cool finger pointing was to some avail

be interesting to have a flow chart of who shagged who with SCD/DOI.

Women like men who can dance ...or even who can't dance with calzaghe and mistry for starters