Specials
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4.0 is still an incredible price for Farah who should be around 1.6 in my opinion.
Let me explain why.........
Most people would accept its a straight fight between Farah and Wiggins. The die hard sport fans (around 10% of the population) will probably argue its a 50/50 argument between the two. Even if its 60/40 to Wiggins, Farah shoud win comfortably beacuse of the "voting public". The voting public are those who claim to like sport but really don't know much about it - despite many claiming to be an expert. You know the type who suddenly become a football expert at the World Cup. These "voting public" will vote far more than the die-hard sports fans.
These "voting public" are crucial to Farah - as these will know Farah far more than they do Wiggins. And after two primetime slots on Saturday night they will now have fallen in love with him. My facebook wall was full of "Go Mo" statuses last night from women who I never even knew liked sport. I predict the "voting public" will vote 70/30 in favour of Farah.
Farah will also get far more publicity than Wiggins in coming months due to twins, Great North run, Arsenal etc
As a result I predict Farah will get approximately 35% of total vote compared to Wiggins on about 28%, Ennis 15%.
Let me explain why.........
Most people would accept its a straight fight between Farah and Wiggins. The die hard sport fans (around 10% of the population) will probably argue its a 50/50 argument between the two. Even if its 60/40 to Wiggins, Farah shoud win comfortably beacuse of the "voting public". The voting public are those who claim to like sport but really don't know much about it - despite many claiming to be an expert. You know the type who suddenly become a football expert at the World Cup. These "voting public" will vote far more than the die-hard sports fans.
These "voting public" are crucial to Farah - as these will know Farah far more than they do Wiggins. And after two primetime slots on Saturday night they will now have fallen in love with him. My facebook wall was full of "Go Mo" statuses last night from women who I never even knew liked sport. I predict the "voting public" will vote 70/30 in favour of Farah.
Farah will also get far more publicity than Wiggins in coming months due to twins, Great North run, Arsenal etc
As a result I predict Farah will get approximately 35% of total vote compared to Wiggins on about 28%, Ennis 15%.
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Farah far more appealing to female voters than Wiggo. That will decide spoty this year. The prices are the wrong way around, simple as that
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I know Wiggins winning TdF was a big deal, but Hoy has overtaken him as our greatest Olympian. Ennis was the face of the Athletics events and will be doing the celebrity circuit. Farah has done superbly well and had the commentators hyping his wins up as the greatest thing they've ever seen in their lives.
It seems rather strange to me. |
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Talking to my old mum today, she was most enthusiastic about Mo and Cavendish doing the cycling commentary
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Good spoty judge yer mum
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It really is a no brainer. What Mo achieved superseded 'normal' sport. Families up and down the country roaring home a national hero as one. Wiggins really cannot compete with this. On top of that, Mo does really come across as a genuine, humble guy with an uplifting back story. As I wrote before, I rarely vote on anything but I will definitely be voting for Mo. His 5k victory will be synonymous with these games. A games which nobody will forget. Bolt doing the Mo bot whilst winning his third gold says it all really.
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The wise heads know
 Where's JR? Tbf, he said Wiggo would be beaten, just got the wrong athlete |
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It's between Mo and Jess, for me. Jess lacked the competition she was never in danger. I'd want her green tho.
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2163280/Zakaria-Mohamed-Somali-refugee-stabbed-Amina-Adan-57-times-mirror-shard-jailed-life.html
Somalia isn't in the tabloid press' remit |
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just search
daily mail somalia or the sun somalia on google |
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Terrible bait
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You very thinly veiled racism, lucy, would go down better on the politics forum
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Your*
My bloody 'r' |
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Long been saying the prices in this market were completely wrong, GB, as you know, for the very reason Ennis & Farah would be huge contenders assuming they succeeded in their Olympic events, not to mention other cyclists looking so likely to enter the fray.
Lads paying out on Wiggins was staggering negligence. My average back price of Mo is 17. I layed Wiggins heavily at 1.18 to reduce my overall lay price of him to 1.42, as I was happy to lay him when he was a shade of odds on. Landed the Mo double gold too at 6s - one of my big 2012 Specials bets. An all-green book already & happy to keep Wiggins only a small green as I anticipate his price drifting on the night. Still see Ennis as Mo's biggest threat & in a popular vote she could beat him. |
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nice one JR. Lots of mistakes here, like laying Wiggo too early, but it's come round in the end
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Like you JR I put Mo up as my first speculative SPOTY wager after last year's contest and also had the 6/1 NY specials double. Backed Wiggo at 7/2 during the TdF thinking I could lay it all back when he won Olympic gold, then Ladbrokes go and pay my bet out early! Bonus...
So it's all about Mo for me, for all the reasons stated above and on other threads. Went back in at 12s the day before his 5k success, but completely under-estimated the wave of euphoria that would follow. The manner of his victory makes this the emblematic performance of the games and one that will live long in the memory. Just one of those iconic moments. He's such a humble, modest guy too. A true gentleman and a great sporting ambassador, so he'll have a mass broad appeal with the public, especially female voters. You can picture it now, appearing on stage with his twins, a gold medal round each of their necks. Go Mo! |
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Surely some price action when the twins are born Dizzy.
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Nice work, dizzy
I was like you, GB, on reflection - too hasty laying Wiggins when his price then contracted further. A little unlucky as road race gold fell in his lap due to injuries of his main rivals. |
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time trial, of course. Not road race.
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Without the gold Wiggo woud be 5s right now OC
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Only thing I will say is it's not a racist comment but how often do the country vote for a Black person as their SPOTY. In 2007 and 2008 I fancied Lewis Hamilton on both occasions and if I remember he finished suprisingly low. Laying Wiggins even at 1.7 seems a smart bet as the short list will surely contain Wiggins Trott and Hoy from the cycling team. So you could see that splitting some of the vote. I personally think its a fight between Jess and Mo and if Wiggins retains the Tour De France next year then 2013 will be his year. There is also the sexist argument that males win this award more often than females. Lots of factors in this market. Also if Andy Murray won the US open he could still come into the picture.
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P.S. also a ryder cup in September if its a dramatic end with Rory holing the winning put in the 12th singles match he could get involved. However olympic year it simply has to go to a team GB medallist.
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Hamilton a cold automaton. I shouldn't worry about this aspect eagles
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Nor the ryder cup
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Eagles - what about Thompson, Whitbread, Christie, L Lewis, Holmes?
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Hamilton was 2nd in those years, and certainly had strong opposition in Hoy and Adlington in 08.
Past 30 years. Winners - 5 Black, 5 1/2 Female (1/2 = Torvill of T&D) 2nds - 8 Black, 7 1/2 Female (Torvill again) 3rds - 6 Black, 7 Female Seems fair enough, considering the general make up of the top ten. |
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Black people seem to have a very good record in this. Add in the fact that Mo is the most charming little guy you could ever see. Every time he's on telly he lights up the screen
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Mo winning the 5000 was definately the most iconic moment of the games from a British point of view. The way he went from back to front of the field in one move seemed planned to get the crowd on their feet and then he showed the courage of a lion to fisnish the job. The sense of anticaption and excitement in that race was overwheming.
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Best thing on telly for years. If not ever
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Think of Mo and Wiggo in the studio. One a livewire with infectious smile, one a grumpy git with sideburns with things living in them
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GB in the zone now tbf
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Resistance is useless
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When it comes the time for voting a clip of Mo winning the 5000 will bring back so many happy memories for the public. A twenty second clip of Mo rounding the bend with the crowd on their feet or twenty second of Wiggins free rolling up the champ elyses in a race already won. I know which one i find more appealing.
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Looks like he'll be favourite soon.
The penny starting to drop that unlike the last couple of years, a sport that a tiny minority are interested in, can't win in an Olympic year. |
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fll
you, I, and a few others have been shouting the blindingly obvious for weeks now. Army Just back Jess and Mo. Before the end of CBB, you will be able to lay them both off, having free bets on the two, without tying your money up any longer than you will be with your CBB bets. |
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Back Mo now and lay off after the kids are born if you want. That's probably when he goes fav
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I'll do that DS then.
Who would you put in the 10 GB? |
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DS Poll*
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from the Daily Hell
LONDON OLYMPICS 2012 Forget the Mo-bot... London 2012's most hilarious internet viral is Mo running away from things + pics |
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The vietnam one is a classic
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