Friday night's quiet thread

Verne 4th

Crazy horse was running well until the wheels came off

Yep, Crazy Horse should have won it

Verne was never polling well, neither was crazy horse

That bloke Fig loved Harrison hardly registered a vote.

Jul 14, 2012 -- 12:19AM, five leaves left wrote:

Verne was never polling well, neither was crazy horse

Neither was Adam. Oh, hang on

How about Mr Sulu on IAC..?

Fig's worst US punt, that crazed bint off CBB last year or the year before

As Hems says, each show has it's own dynamic

Tanya?

Mr Sulu was 2nd wasn't he?

3rd I think?  Did well, anyway

I just can't imagine anyone not voting for someone just because of their nationality,...well hardly anyone surely.

Tara Reid you mean GB?
I dumped her after about a week. Had clearly killed too many brain cells

tara yes. You backed her tho

Don't think too many down my local Mosque watch BB tbh.

Jul 14, 2012 -- 12:23AM, hemsby wrote:

I just can't imagine anyone not voting for someone just because of their nationality,...well hardly anyone surely.

10 weeks is plenty time to get to know someone. This gives an 'american' the best chance in this particular series, overriding any cultural blockages

I backed the Jackson woman too, before she turned into a b1tch

Its not about not voting because they are American its not voting because they cant relate to them or their emotions. Its why Jedward flopped in CBB, they were robots, they never showed one ounce of emotion or feeling, whereas Paddy was so empathetic. They could relate to Deneise and her culture, they didnt see the harm when she pulled down the pants of the twin, in their culture it is normal banter behavior. Same reason why posh people do badly on BB too.

Im not saying people cant relate to Adam but they might find it harder to feel common ground with him.

He's very unamerican. Not showy at all. Very much like the americans who have done well.
Jackson, Dynasty woman, Mr sulu

Jul 14, 2012 -- 12:27AM, five leaves left wrote:

He's very unamerican. Not showy at all. Very much like the americans who have done well.Jackson, Dynasty woman, Mr sulu

Exactly

"lol. Who won the Farm?"

Orville The Duck.

Still the funniest thing I've ever seen on a reality show

He isn't American OC

lol TM. Deservedly I'd assume

I see a lot of 'American' in his personality Fig but also a lot of qualities to feel empathy with him too.

Did the animals vote?

Adam the most empathetic in this by a country mile, yes

Jessie J on BBC2 Fig

He'll turn over for any Jessie

Orville The Duck up against Ron Jeremy in an eviction vote remains my fave moment in any reality show ever

Can't believe the hedgehog lost that one

mr sulu fll

warp 8 captain captain kirk

he's off. Nurse!

Adam's biggest negative is his hairstyle

Channel 5's past reality shows have been excellent. Back To Reality was actually really good. 2 moments stand out... Craig trying to pick Richard Bacon up and throw him in a dumpster only to crotch him on the side of it and Mo from Driving School being announced as the runner up and walking off in a huff, disgusted at the result

he drifted when shiv put braids in and he looked gangster

lol TM. Wish I'd seen it now

Once Adam picks up votes from Luke A and Lauren, he'll be unstoppable.

He already has

I topped up @ 4/1 with Paddies tonight. Max of 35 quid tho

i think he's about a 2/1 shot

Fat Rick from Pop Idol being given a guitar to entertain the other housemates with and spending the entire 2 hours he had it trying to tune it

less i think given the bots and brian support

Could someone let me know when we all claim to have greened out,just so I don't look foolish when he finishes 5th.

Green out when bf settle the market

lol ok hems. when he hits 1.5

Jul 14, 2012 -- 12:38AM, TheMadness wrote:

Fat Rick from Pop Idol being given a guitar to entertain the other housemates with and spending the entire 2 hours he had it trying to tune it

couldn't play?

Top price on here to reasonable money. Just had some. I bet he's tried to bash Laurens backdoors in now

I think he strummed a chord eventually.

James Hewitt and Craig from BB1 wearing nothing but their underwear trying to wrestle each other into a hot tub, with Hewitt kicking Craig's arse every time

Eton has many unanswered crimes

Even the official BB twitter feed aren't keen on Becky

12.21am: Becky is a true raconteur, sharing her Devon-bound motorway horror story. *Yawn* ‪#bbuklive‬

New poll figures will be very revealing over the next few days.I think Adam will be pushing Deana close at the top,and Luke A and Lauren slipping slightly (hope so anyway)

already happening on tv polls. See other thread in a minute

It was Adam and Lauren top on the latest tvpolls, which is the only one that counts.
Deana 4th iirc

DS have Deana taking the early lead, from Adam, Lauren and Sara just behind. Luke A finnished

Adam will reel that in

Deana will win

666_v

At least like me your are consistent. The others change their minds every day Lauren, Sara , Adam, . The same peeps who were backing Caroline on night 1

What's laudable about consistency in a contest with as many variables as this one? 6 different favs? Its not like supporting your football team through thick and thin ffs.  I backed caroline on night 1 should I still be supporting her? Mug.

I do actually think Deana is the funniest of the Outsiders...

http://bigbrotheruk-s2.channel5.com/video/1734179865001/?page=1

It's about integrity GB you in particular have gone through over half the house saying they'll win at some point. Seems an expensive way to go about things.

I'd have more integrity if I had stayed "loyal" to Caroline? Very odd position to take.  And not so expensive. Anticipating the trend and getting decent odds. Laying off when you see the trend turning. If Luke A wins I lose a few hundred. Most of the others its 4 figures  greens. You van keep your integrity.

16 housemates...16 loyal backers on BF...15 losers.

Some specials you see the winner way out and I can do that too..method don't matter so long as you win.  GB taught me that.

Penny pinching method of betting. But works for people who can't see winners from far away. I have a high-end 5 figure green on Deana and will only contemplate laying off when she goes odds-on. Suppose there is the chance to maximise profits by trading all the time but it's relative peanuts with this market.

'Caring, moody and aggressive' clip from Deana is funny. Hope they show that tomorrow night

Hamsterdam

I regularly end up winning 40, 50, 60 points by trading what are only, for example, 5/1 or 10/1 shots. By trading the whole field, nowhere is it easier than Specials to achieve such proportionately large greens. The ego-trippers are welcome to their boast that they picked a 10/1 winner on the first night, IF their pick actually wins, while I and most traders have won 50 risk-free points. I am constantly amazed at the inability of `outright backers` to grasp this simple concept, while pouring scorn on any claim by a poster that they are green on more than one runner.

Life is so much easier when you don't over complicate it. Choose the winner, lump on, sit back and relax.

If you so choose you can back someone at 7's come on the forum attempt to convince everyone said runner is going to win and then lay off at 4's. Rinse and repeat the next day and so on. But you won't get the really big profits this way.

You`re still missing the point. You have backed Deana at, what, let`s say 20/1? So, a 20 point winner or one point loser. She currently wins me 43 points, with three others winning me 50+ points, and the rest losing me about 12 points. I could, at current prices, have every runner winning me 17 points, but there is no point having any green at all on most of them.
                     Potential profit Potential loss
Straight backers         +20               -1

Traders                   +43               -8
                                 
                                   OR

                          +17 everybody       0

You can have the bragging rights, I`ll have the better system.

Sorry, that -8 should read -12

seanvice
13 Jul 12 23:57
Cant have Lauren being this price the way shes going, every baby voice she does loses her 100s of votes. 12s seems nearer the mark.

Unfortunately I'm now having to back the mopey child to balance my book, as I don't want to take a position on this one.

I'd put true odds, which are not yet reflected in the polls, as:

Adam  2.8
Deana 3.2
Lauren 9.4

* "on this one" = on this BB

"Hemsby, the favs all have terrible negatives, not even Conor would be 50s in my book."

I don't know about terrible. But anyway perfection can be boring.

Adam and Deana (and Sara) are thoroughly decent and well balanced people.

Jul 14, 2012 -- 3:58AM, timbuctooth wrote:

You`re still missing the point. You have backed Deana at, what, let`s say 20/1? So, a 20 point winner or one point loser. She currently wins me 43 points, with three others winning me 50+ points, and the rest losing me about 12 points. I could, at current prices, have every runner winning me 17 points, but there is no point having any green at all on most of them.                     Potential profit Potential lossStraight backers         +20               -1Traders                   +43               -8                                                                    OR                          +17 everybody       0You can have the bragging rights, I`ll have the better system.

You are,of course,correct tim.However to operate in this manner you require a stake of x12 the straight backer.On the rare occasion it goes belly up,you risk losing a lot more.

Paupers like myself tend to operate the Hammy system....and yes we do tend to shout louder about our winners,I guess we feel we are more entitled to

That's why being 'all green' is nuts, to me. Backing someone way under your perceived price just not to lose on the market.

As a pure trader I've always had an aversion to any kind of loss, I hate that prospect except on small fun bets. But this can still lead to huge reds (Luke S, Carol here) who I perceive as chanceless. I'm also level on Luke A just in case. Smaller wins, but I've only had 2 significant losses in 5 years. Horses for courses innit

And some of the wins haven't been all that small

Winners grow throughout a series. It's very difficult to predict most at the start. If you've managed it once the chances are you'll fail next time. Take last year's xf.  Marcus trading 20s at one stage and we all know about Rimmix. Who'd have thunk it?

Even if you get one at the start, you'll often get higher prices during the series. Say for example if Adam comes home for me in this one

omfg, specials is all about trading..u want to back outright winners stick to the mug horse racing scene or footy.
i know, i'll feck about on this for 3 months to earn a bucket of p1ss if my horse dont get home, ummmm no thanks, i'll take me guaranteed green thanks.
and do u know why i will, coz i put the time and effort in and ramp the arse off every runner in sight, not sit back and be a right lazy fecker and expect cash to fall in my lap.
all specials markets are longterm built for trading and nothing else, even a position taker will no doubt trade out at odds on at some point, making him the biggest hypocrite of all come pay day.

stick that in your pipe and smoke it

Listen to what GB (and army) is saying..this is a man who can start a thread on Monday and ditch it on Tuesday...you have to be able to murder your darlings

Calm down lads. Your both right in certain ways.

I have went through more tanks than Rommel in my gambling life. Generally i would have to say people who trade exclusively are more risk adverse but smart with it. Well, those who can pay the rent. I do think however, this need to be green in all things can only be achieved by diluting value and sometimes just giving value away. But you need to do that in order to have a cash flow when your dealing in high volume betting but low margin returns.

Personally think outright and sometimes reckless betting is okay if your single and young enough to be able to make mistakes and learn from then. But as you get older most people become more conservative by nature and if your married with a family you have to balance the gambling instinct in you with with responsibility.

Agree with this as well.  Not sure what I am anymore ...part gambler/part trader now I guess but have become more risk averse than I need to be sometimes.

lol at army

I don't always lay off, in fact I rarely do. I'm sure some of the regs can vouch for that.

As GB1 has said, horses for courses but trading or not I cannot see the point of backing below price, to avoid red. Your betting is long term, not an isolated market (if you're taking it seriously which everyone on here does).

You shouldn't have a red that you can't accommodate as part of your normal MO, trading or position taking.

Partly down to your own skills, I'd say I'm pretty good at calling winners and spotting value, but pretty rubbish at predicting market movements.

paddletoe makes a good point, traders is really for old fogeys when your young life is a rollercoaster, enjoy while u can.

paddle and cider both make valid points that traders often throw away value or clearing a red by a traders panic situation as i would call it. i did this with deana in the shiv argument, panicked deana was going to the dark side, layed off a chunk and 30 mins later an article appeared saying she does not trust shiv.
ive made a few mistakes like that but ive also made countless good shouts. basically the good outweighs the bad most of the time and u have a healthy green book if u so wish or take the gamble and leave bigger greens on the ones u like the most or ones u think have the best chance of winning.
traders infact get the best of both worlds when u think about it, coz once u get into a healthy position u can take risks here and there virtually loss free.
traders deffo have more fun

Agree with Cider,and the last paragraph is a key point.Different systems work for different people.

If you have a relatively large bank,are skilled at predicting market fluctuations and have the spare time to monitor things closely and act upon any information immediately,then trading would be your best option.

If however you are operating on a comparatively smaller bank,have lesser time for monitoring things,yet have a penchant for spotting winners early,then the only time you may trade,as Cider insinuates,is when you feel your pick is underpriced.

Bottom line is I guess,if it works for you it's right.

As someone who isn't a trader but has made 12k in the past year, I have to respectfully disagree.

those that pick a winner at the start and stick to it are at a massive disadvantage.
specials like BB are an unfolding story where a lot of facts are not clear, by keeping up with the events in the house it's possible to spot value and where the market is going.
(example) nearly all the regular traders on here spoted Adam would be the next fav when his price was double what it is now.
if you gave the traders and straight pickers the same stake at the start of BB every year there would be no contest the traders would make the most profit for the least over all risk.

Trading need not necessarily mean covering every last possibility, as I mentioned earlier. I don't think I've a single back of Luke S the entire series, as the price has always been wrong and remains wrong

"GeorgeBrush
14 Jul 12 09:46
As a pure trader I've always had an aversion to any kind of loss, I hate that prospect except on small fun bets. But this can still lead to huge reds (Luke S, Carol here) who I perceive as chanceless. I'm also level on Luke A just in case. Smaller wins, but I've only had 2 significant losses in 5 years. Horses for courses innit"

I think this is the tactic I have to employ. I've been betting off and on for 5 years and now have nothing else to do so will concentrate more. What on earth was I doing taking a position on last night? You had the right tactic: start off backing Shev and then back Conor when he drifted in-play.

And, as has been said, for those who are good at picking winners - stick with it. Even successful traders who always profit will have inevitably made hundreds of losing bets in each market they profit from.

lol Henry. I made no cash because I was all in on Conor. So much for perfect tactics. Didn't lose a penny though

A downside of my MO is that when I came to PC status, my commission ratio was ridiculously low at 12%. Even now it is only up to 14%

I should do some churning

Pretty hard to pick a winner from the start with these things, depends on the particular show.

There's usually a 'eureka' moment I guess one could call it when a runner looks a possible/likely winner. It can come any time, from the spoilers of potential runners right up to the final. With this year's bb it might not happen at all!

It's far easier to rule out runners altho LM can always be thrown back in my face as I did rule them out for a long period of the series. I can live with picking the finalist edged out by a few % @40-1 tho

Marcus was the natural winner of that series. It was effectively fixed

Yep!

As an aside cbb is easily the toughest event, for me. Although I did very well out of vbp, I've found the winners very hard to find, overall. Perhaps because there's a mix of notoriety before they go in and events when they are in. The evictions are much easier.

Denise and Paddy I ended up with >500 wins on, only getting on in the final few days. Agree, very difficult

It was easier when you had HS accounts. I remember hammering Reid at all prices and turning a red into a big win

I can only speak from my own point of view but i think money management is the most important thing in betting/gambling.

Its a lot easier on your personal life if every penny is a prisoner in your betting life as you dont have the regular blow outs that pure gamblers have to deal with. Its okay kicking stones on the way back from the bookies when your 20 and single and you have done the paycheck on the last favourite at the dogs. But when your not single you cant go around blowing tanks and it affecting someone else.

Hemsby

You are right ,in that at the moment I have an exposure of 12 points. However, I can get the whole field +17 points, with no exposure. This is the joy of trading. Even a blind, deaf monkey will get 50% of his trades right, I/we only have to get 51% right to be in front.
Nearly all of us will have been outright backers at first, but it is so much easier to win by trading. In six or seven years, covering maybe 70 or 80 Specials events, I have lost the 12 points on four occasions: Joe Mac twice, the Italian chef, and this year`s ESC. On each of those occasions, I had opportunities to get out of trouble, but didn`t feel the value was there, so let it ride.
Very, very importantly, this is not down to my amazing abilities, it`s purely a result of getting 51% of my trades right. That is all it takes, but, long term, it works