*** The Official Eurovision Grand Final IR Fred ***

that's good GB. Mine too. Sweden -500 on here

map its leanne v bo v vince v tyler in the final..who'd have thunk it.

ah for PC...no danger there with another 1300 loss

tote limited me to 6p last week...I expect a further cut now

baha nice what were u betting on with them?

May 26, 2012 -- 11:54PM, George Bailey wrote:

map its leanne v bo v vince v tyler in the final..who'd have thunk it.

for me its Bo v Tyler then im ignoring the other two..with Bo the winner - whats your thoughts?

Estonia missed out by 4pts to that bllindfolded twot in the 1st semi

Can't believe I'm not green on Tyler in the o/r given my bromance with him ....look to the MEMs says I. If they voted for him tonight after than abomination he has to have a great chance. MEMs and Vince? Not sure. His young tweeters were split with becky. MEMs and Bo...sort of I guess.  MEMs and Leanne...yeah...plump and pretty and lacking confidence.

May 26, 2012 -- 11:57PM, five leaves left wrote:

Estonia missed out by 4pts to that bllindfolded twot in the 1st semi

Missed out for what?

Top 3 in the semi.

ah ta...I'd have taken 1.01 Estonia in that match

And own up all those who said Tyler was a chunt that no woman would vote for.....fecking clueless you lot

yea Id seen Tyler talked about a lot but didn't back him - are there any figures for the previous weeks votes? I know the viewing figures are low ..just wondering

there's no facebook/text voting or anything either for the voice is tehre GB? Although XF did text voting then had to stop it for some reason,..

nah the stasi bbc don't release them map.

thought as much

just wonder how many first time viewers a show like the voice would get..being that numbers have been low; and who they';d vote for

In case they hurt the feelings of these no marks

how many weeks does it take to settle these markets jeeez

whats 'MEMs' mean damn my old age memory!!

calm down slideshowbob it will soon be christmas

5m viwers last week which is pitiful. BB last year got 2.5m (??) in the final and that was a twitterati winner not a GBP one. Final should get 12m though.

Middle England Mums..not to be confused with MAMs and AI

May 27, 2012 -- 12:06AM, George Bailey wrote:

5m viwers last week which is pitiful. BB last year got 2.5m (??) in the final and that was a twitterati winner not a GBP one. Final should get 12m though.

I cant even remember who won BB I only watched bits and pieces.. 5million wow..you reckon an increase of 7million for the final? seems a bit optimistic ..im the eternal pessimist!!

top 3 in each semi please? on my phone and cant find them

tia :)

I think I should write a song for Eurovision next year.. the lyrics will be as such -

'Vote for me, I am the best, up up up up up, la la la'
'Vote for me, be my guest, up up up up up, ra ra ra'

You think it would win?

and sung by a muppet oops too late been done by dustin the turkey lol

May 27, 2012 -- 12:08AM, jack12321 wrote:

top 3 in each semi please? on my phone and cant find themtia :)

1. Montenegro 2.Iceland 3.Greece from SF1 - SF2 1 Serbia 2. F.Y.R Macedonia 3. The Netherlands

top 10 finally settled

ha ha I'm glad we dont win the eurovision..hosting it costs an absolute fortune ....who wants all that money being wasted on it! They said on the show that Baku spent 400mil on hosting the eurovision!

what if I send six grannies on stage to sing it and give them a fake story about needing to raise money to rebuild the local brothel?

or, maybe a transvestite grannies who are half Serbian and half Icelandic.

sounds like combine both thoughts and youve got a winner Srichaphan or Ancic

I think too too. Preparing my email to the BBC now. If someone knows any transvestite Serbo-Icelandic grannies, let us know.

so too

I think I could secure victory with a dancing dog playing the violin mid way through the song.

Just found an ew bet on Azer @ 50/1 :D

May 27, 2012 -- 12:14AM, Srichaphan or Ancic? wrote:

I think too too. Preparing my email to the BBC now. If someone knows any transvestite Serbo-Icelandic grannies, let us know.

bound to be a few ..pop down the dole office sure there's some hanging round

no theyre not real ones, just people who dont want to work and so make themselves look as freakish as possible.

May 27, 2012 -- 12:09AM, Srichaphan or Ancic? wrote:

I think I should write a song for Eurovision next year.. the lyrics will be as such -'Vote for me, I am the best, up up up up up, la la la''Vote for me, be my guest, up up up up up, ra ra ra'You think it would win?

sounds as good as some of the dross put into euro vision

maybe it's just me but I find graham norton annoying too..and the show's too long!!

Yeah, he wasnt so bad this year. I would prefer it is Sarah thingy presented it though.

if

she has something about her that says 'knows what she is talking about but is fresh, modern and funny' whereas Norton is just 'gay, overrated and unfunny'.

can anyone get ion at lads?

'Dear BBC,

here is the Betfair punters idea for next year's Eurovision.

A dance song including the lyrics up up up up and la la la, sung by four transvestite Serbo-Icelandic grannies, all with bagels stuck on their heads and accompanied by a dancing dog playing the violin while some men prance around the stage doing somersaults.

yep..and a shorter show if they could somehow get that sorted

urgh ive gotta get the train monday and go through london..really not looking forward to it

'Dear BBC,

here is the Betfair punters idea for next year's Eurovision.

A dance song including the lyrics up up up up and la la la, sung by four transvestite Serbo-Icelandic grannies, all with bagels stuck on their heads and accompanied by a dancing dog playing the violin while some men prance around the stage doing somersaults.

all armed with ray guns that, when fired at the camera , erase the viewers memory banks so they can't remember wars and things!

You know you've had a bad night on the ESC when you're in work voluntarily at 5.30am on a Sunday night to start paying off the losses.  Thank God I'm on time and a half! 

Are you one of the Sweden Deniers honest? If I had the time and wasn't such a nice guy I'd search the threads for you all and do one of those ".....you boys took a hell of a beating" posts

Anyway as an ESC winner I'm just waiting for a nice cup of tea in bed and will then take all the family out for a no expenses spared all the trimmings Sunday lunch...don't work too hard

You're on a bit of a roll at the moment George - the dog in BGT, Phillip Phillips in AI and now Sweden... You must be getting ready to retire now, surely?!

Well done, though - top tipping throughout.  Now who have you backed for the Voice?!

Hi Dizzy and somehow with the voice results tonight I have managed to drag victory from the jaws of defeat.  I was saying to Mrs B over a simply wonderful lunch in splendid surroundings (you'd have loved it honest ) that my record on Betfair is abysmal.  I pretend to be a trader but really I am a gambler.

If there were no BF I would never have got into specials betting but if it disappeared tomorrow and I had to rely on the HS I maybe would be able to retire. Just off the top of my head I have backed Azer last year, Jai, Pudsey, Pip, Sweden and then proceeded to lay off huge chuks to go green on ones I don't fancy.  Overall I am sure I would be better off without it but no doubt I would get banned from the HS and would certainly miss the craic on here.

Is there any known cure for Betting Tourettes on BF?

As for The Voice. Absolutely fascinating. same as with last year's BB. Does the GBP trump the twitterati? I won on BB but wrongly thought the GBP would turn up on the night but they didn't.  I suspect there will a link between audience numbers and winner. Will post a HG nearer the time if I can

You should only lay off, if you would place that lay without the green. Of course easier said than done. I'm not trying to preach here I make loads of mistakes of my own but really every bet struck should be analysed independently of history and exposure.

That's very good advice Cider as usual.  I was throwing money around like a drunken sailor on countries I wouldn't have backed with my worst enemies cash. Got to green up got to green up

having built up a very decent fighting fund in future losing a few hundred quid here and there on following my gut instincts/research won't phase me like it did a year ago.

I tend to back other candidates rather than lay off. Always works. Except on the Voice

Yep, I backed biscuit boy the day he went .

For me it was being able to accept losing when you've made the right bets. Not every winner should be backed. I feel I can beat the market on the horses but I can't accept bad beats too well. Really fancied Sole Power yesterday and went on a little tilt because I considered he should have won!!

Mathematically is that the best way to do it ie don't waste money greening up complete no hopers? Its what I did on ESC and to be fair it was quite nice having a 1700 green the grannies when it became a 2 horse race.

Greening up you're proportionately backing every other runner.

Yep, ziz iz it

And then you find some no hoper trading at 8.0

Yeah thought so thanks......tell you how stupid I am I was green on both bayern and chelsea and at the end was waiting for cash to go into my account...but it didn't

The other thing I'd like to control is the borderline bets. In specials it won't be long until the next huge value bet comes along. No need to second guess producers, just require patience.

Cowell's mind games has cost me more money than my Betting Tourette's Syndrome.

I find them very reassuring

Bex is strangely absent today - maybe sore about Norway - I must admit I am in total shock as to how poorly that did.  I still thought it was well in the mix for a top 10 place even from it's poor draw.  I know the vocal was off, but televoters must have deserted it too.  That, and Albania's high placing are the biggest WTF moments in the results.

To think Bulgaria narly made it into the final instead of Norway, that would have been a big shock.

Instead of Erik Lite the viewers must have seen Tooji as Erik Anorexic

Think Norways entry got weaker over time - when it was selected started a really standout track, but by the show it ended up a forgettable pop track.

I suspect Loreen's main competition in the melodifestivalen wouldn't have done that well either as from memory it was that kind of thing as well.

FWIW GB2 I tend to hedge like mad too, thus reducing my profit when I'd have been better sticking to original instincts... As I've said many times before, I'm more of a percentage man than an out and out gambler I guess.

But like Cider and George also say, I've found it better to just back others that you think are the main threats rather than lay back (and thus, indirectly, back all of the no hopers as well).  Unless it's a classic back to lay (i.e. a Jedward or Wagner, who are never going to win in the first place) I've found laying back a hugely frustrating punting strategy.

Loreen now no.1 on itunes UK

Pretty amazing looking at those results again - Sweden got 18 twelve-pointers! Don't think many would have predicted that many, even those backing it.

I did say it could do a Rybak. It's even surpassed him I think....and #1 on itunes. iirc Lena peaked at about 10 in the UK. #1 everywhere else.
Last years winner peaked in the 30's, again iirc. Jedward & Eric did the best in our charts and all over europe.

It's #1 on itunes in Germany, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Spain< Sweden & Switzerland.
Dropped to #2 here, but still very impressive.

I do think this is the future of Eurouvision. Chart friendly songs. Popular would probably have won last year with a better draw.

I loved Popular that much in the end (didn't really back it that much - only really loved it at the very end and after the ESS) I was even trying to get a producer to get him a deal here in UK.  Unfortunately the producer in question's last major success was Shanice's 'I Love Your Smile' about 20 years ago plus he didn't like ESC, so I was kinda pissing in the wind, but hey, you gotta try!

That's the trouble with the UK, as discussed in the other thread. Eurovision is just seen as a joke.
Lena for example wouldn't have looked out of place as the closing music act on the Jonathan Ross show, but because it's Eurovision she had no real chance of getting much airtime in the UK. On TV or Radio.
Maybe Loreen's victory will help to change that a little.

Euphoria was played at at least one very big London nightclub, I believe.

Euphoria can be played easily without any baggage because a DJ can just drop it into a mix - it is also a suitable song for playing on PAs at events. I think Lena did not have much appeal in the UK (I seem to remember she didn't get much in the televote) because of her voice - her style of singing had already dropped out of fashion and her odd pronunciation obviously was too much for many - which is a shame as she was a deserved winner.

May 28, 2012 -- 11:29AM, stu wrote:

Pretty amazing looking at those results again - Sweden got 18 twelve-pointers! Don't think many would have predicted that many, even those backing it.

Just for the record and because I am a little bit smug over this but on March 10th I said this could easily be a Rybak. Not even sure how many countries had revealed their entries then.

Re itunes I posted a link to various countries charts a few days before the final that had it high up in quite a few of them.  Justifiably chuffed but still kicking myself for frittering away a 4700 green by almost exactly 50%.

What made you lay off GB2?
The move on the Grannies?
I used it as an oppotunity to top up and backed as low as 1.1 as the results came in. She was still that price when she was around 30pts clear iirc

Madness really fll. Started by taking some quick profit at 3.5s or so and this was first mistake given she semlt like a winner very early on.  My head overruled my instinct and said "go all green" and sit back. 

Then I just started having 50s here and there on what I thought were main rivals. Mistake two as there were no real rivals ala Rybak.

Didn't really do anything in running as after 2 results or so it was all over.

I'm ok with it really. 2350 was a good return for what was really 30 minutes of work.  Others must have lost a lot by opposing her...I DID try to tell them (that is becoming my catchphrase )

Excellent advice from Cider yesterday. Don't lay back/lay off on acts you wouldn't be backing on their own merits. Good lesson learnt.

Not in the Little Mix league but not too shabby.

That's always been one of my faults. Being overly cautious.
It's my mission this year to overcome it. Not that it worked too well with my continued laying of Pip
Having said that I still think he was a value lay until the winners songs

Long term, it`s all about value. To stay in the game, a degree of caution is crucial. I frequently give away some of my value to ensure long term growth of the bankroll. The beauty of Specials is the unbelievable value that is frequently on offer, so if I get huge value, I am not too unhappy giving a bit away, knowing there will be plenty more value coming along soon, and the bankroll is growing.

Nah can't agree re Pip fll. He could have farted on stage and still won. Wish they publish the votes 65% v 35% or similar I bet.

Reminds me of when Lester Piggott was interviewed after he had won a big race..."when did you first know you were going to win the race"? asked the interviewer.  "About four weeks ago" replied Lester.  That's how it was with Pip.

I agree re us both being over cautious. the irony is that when I get doubts and post them you invariably advise (rightly) to let it ride.  harder to be objective with your own book. maybe we should post on here before any laying off to have thinking time?

Good points Tim. Long term view is that this is a license to print money whether you are a good trader with dodgy judgement of acts etc or a gambler with good instincts for winners but lousy trading skills.

1k to 10k in a year or so supports what you say.

Plenty of shrewdies on here with good advice on Specials betting, but (genuine question) is there anyone who makes a living solely out of betting on these markets?

I would put myself in the same category as GB2 - probably clear £2.5k to £5k on average per annum, without investing large sums. But then with one or two exceptions there is not the liquidity on here, or ability to place significant bets with fixed odds operators without getting limited.

I don't rate myself highly as a gambler - come out roughly level on horses and definitely a loser on football, but as Tim says above there's much more value to be had in these markets.

I've recently been made redundant so without being silly about it I need to be more focused on my punting strategy to keep things ticking over, so would be interested to hear your views...

Hi Dizzy,

I was a compiler of specials for totesport but took redundancy last October.

I now make my living betting on specials, horses, dogs, playing poker and poker blogging for Betfair.

Specials markets are the easiest way to make money if you put the time and the research in, it also helps if you have a good eye for it.  As you say liquidity and being restricted are a major problem and always will be but there are ways round this which is one of the areas I specialise in.  (PM me if you would like some info).

One problem is that when you are doing it for some extra income then there is no pressure, when it is your livelihood there most certainly is and it seems easier to make mistakes which usually stem from not holding a position when you know you should.

Yes, and therein lies my concern - as a percentage player, while I have a good record in these markets they are nowhere near as profitable as they could (and should) be if I had stuck to my original instincts.

As you say, when it's not your sole source of income you're happy just taking a profit - and having some fun along the way. Not sure I have the b@lls to be an out and out specials gambler!

HF - Thanks for your offer of help by the way!

As you say, when it's not your sole source of income you're happy just taking a profit - and having some fun along the way. Not sure I have the b@lls to be an out and out specials gambler!

The opposite for me, when I had a good wage coming in as well was much happier to hold a position longer knowing that if I ended up losing that it didn't really matter.  Now all of a sudden if I lose its beans on toast for a month so I am less likely to take risks which in the long run means I will actually make less!  I think I may need to grow some bigger kahunas!

And no worries with the help bit just let me know if you want it.

Hi Dizzy,
I make a living almost solely from Specials.
Like HF, poker was a decent part of my income a few years back.
The old betfair platform was fairly easy pickings at the cash tables for a number of years, but since the change I hardly play now, as the standard appears to be much higher. Or I've become a worse/lazier player
I just play a few tounaments now for fun. Mostly on stars and I'm down now overall after a shocking run over the last 18 months or so.
I have dabbled on the horses this year with mixed success. Up slightly on the year, but nothing special.  The only sport I've had consistent success on is golf...and only the majors. I've thought of concentrating more on the golf and that's something I might do if the liquidity continues to fall on specials.
On that front, I'm not at all hopeful about the liquidity in the BB market this year and that show alone has produced a 5 figure profit for me over each of the last 5 or 6 years.

As for the pressure to make a profit. I'm in the lucky position now that it's not a big issue for me.
My outgoings are fairly low, as I don't have a wife or kids to support and after 6 or 7 good years I've built up enough in savings now that I don't really feel that pressure of 'having to make a profit' or 'making as much as last year'

I guess my advice would be to stay at work til you have enough money behind you for the 'pressure' not to be a big issue.

I often womnder how you lot have time to watch the ESC rehearsals and there it is in a nutshell 'don't have a wife and kids to support'

Converseley there was me hosting a bbq all Saturday of my wife's friends, nipping indoors every chance I got to check the ESC markets on BF only for the missus to grab the laptop as the ESC started in order for her and a mate to nosey at the mate's ex on Facebook!!  Kept cool as it was all dross at the start but did state I wanted to be back on BF when the grannies sang.  I was about as popular as Bin Laden when I took the laptop back in order to follow the odds! 

Ahh the joys of trying to win money whilst keeping the family happy.  What makes it harder is when you then don't even win money because you didn't back Loreen!! 

Easy problem to solve.

Bought a cheap Acer laptop and anyone else wanting to surf whilst I am doing my specials stuff can use that, dirt cheap but does a job.

Ha, ha! Know that feeling... Just set myself up with my own PC in our box room / office to get a bit of peace and quiet away from it all.

I've also got a wife and two young kids to support, so it's not easy - and of course the constant interruptions don't help! On big weekends like last Saturday I'm far from popular - Eurovision and The Voice semis kept me very occupied, but at least I'd set up most of my bets in advance.

When in running is required I simply offer to babysit while my wife goes out with her friends, which worked a treat during the BGT final!

Even bought my wife tickets for her and a friend of her choice to see Psychic Sally Morgan last week in order to have some peace for Eurovision 1st semi!  Thnakfully, 10 yo daughter loves ESC and also Jedward so she was more than happy to sit and watch whilst daddy gave her a 'maths' lesson coutesy of Betfair's fluctuating odds. 

Really interesting posts.  I think if I HAD to win to survive I'd lose whatever touch I have. On the face of it making a living doing this is superficially attractive but its clear from the comments its not dissimilar to the old drudges and hacks of 18th century Britain.

Re other possible markets I think the in running of the big tennis and rugby games are worth exploring.  Invariably they swing back and forward and my experiments with small stakes have proved pretty interesting.

Another one is the premier league winners. Over the season you will find that a few wins on the trot and a team will go odds on but every year the dynamic changes and no team wins every game and will go through a dodgy patch. I'm going to have a real go on this this year.

Also seems a consistent theme of us being overly cautious. I will start a thread that basically can be used whenever the doubts arise in any event.  I vividly recall Nick one year looking to lose a lot of his green by greening up on 1D in XF and I told him to hold his nerve which iirc he did. Can't do any harm with all the wise heads on here.

During pilot training, you are repeatedly told `there are two types if pilot; cautious ones, and dead ones`.

There are two types of gambler; cautious ones, and losing ones.

Fair play GB2, good effort - wish I'd stuck with it more, it was never a loser for me by much but tried to go for glory with bigger prices.

In reply to previous page!

Just for the record and because I am a little bit smug over this but on March 10th I said this could easily be a Rybak. Not even sure how many countries had revealed their entries then.

Re itunes I posted a link to various countries charts a few days before the final that had it high up in quite a few of them.  Justifiably chuffed but still kicking myself for frittering away a 4700 green by almost exactly 50%.

I guess I approach gambling with am accounting pov nowadays so it's always about sunk costs and maximising opportunity. Fundamental is that you shouldn't risk more than you can afford to lose. Some people otoh might get 2-1 on heads, but cover tails