Specials
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The order is as follows (spokesperson in brackets):
1. Albania – (Andri Xhahu)
2. Montenegro – (Marija Markovic)
3. Romania – (Paula Seling)
4. Austria – (Kati Bellowitsch)
5. Ukraine – (Aleksey Matius)
6. Belarus – (Dmitry Koldun)
7. Belgium – (Peter Van de Veire)
8. Azerbaijan – (Safura Alizadeh)
9. Malta – (Keith Demicoli)
10. San Marino – (Monica Fabbri)
11. France – (Amaury Vassili)
12. United Kingdom – (Scott Mills)
13. Turkey – (Ömer Önder)
14. Greece – (Adriana Magania)
15. Bosnia & Herzegovina – (Elvir Lakovic Laka)
16. Moldova – (Olivia Fortuna)
17. Bulgaria – (Anna Angelova)
18. Switzerland – (Sara Hildebrand)
19. Slovenia – (Lorella Flego)
20. Cyprus – (Loucas Hamatsos)
21. Croatia – (Nevena Rendeli)
22. Slovakia – (Mária Pietrová)
23. FYR Macedonia – (Kristina Talevska)
24. Netherlands – (Vivienne van den Assem)
25. Portugal – (Joana Teles)
26. Iceland – (Matthias Matthiasson)
27. Sweden – (Sarah Dawn Finer)
28. Norway – (Nadia Hasnaoui)
29. Lithuania – (Ignas Krupavičius)
30.Estonia – (Getter Jaani)
31. Denmark – (Louise Wolff)
32. Ireland – (Grainne Seoige)
33. Latvia – (Valters Fridenbergs)
34. Spain – (Elena S. Sánchez)
35. Finland – (Mr Lordi)
36. Georgia – (Sopho Toroshelidze)
37. Italy – (Ivan Bacchi)
38. Serbia – (Maja Nikolić)
39. Germany – (Anke Engelke)
40. Russia – (Oxana Fedorova)
41. Hungary – (Éva Novodomszky)
42. Israel – (Ofer Nachshon)
1. Albania – (Andri Xhahu)
2. Montenegro – (Marija Markovic)
3. Romania – (Paula Seling)
4. Austria – (Kati Bellowitsch)
5. Ukraine – (Aleksey Matius)
6. Belarus – (Dmitry Koldun)
7. Belgium – (Peter Van de Veire)
8. Azerbaijan – (Safura Alizadeh)
9. Malta – (Keith Demicoli)
10. San Marino – (Monica Fabbri)
11. France – (Amaury Vassili)
12. United Kingdom – (Scott Mills)
13. Turkey – (Ömer Önder)
14. Greece – (Adriana Magania)
15. Bosnia & Herzegovina – (Elvir Lakovic Laka)
16. Moldova – (Olivia Fortuna)
17. Bulgaria – (Anna Angelova)
18. Switzerland – (Sara Hildebrand)
19. Slovenia – (Lorella Flego)
20. Cyprus – (Loucas Hamatsos)
21. Croatia – (Nevena Rendeli)
22. Slovakia – (Mária Pietrová)
23. FYR Macedonia – (Kristina Talevska)
24. Netherlands – (Vivienne van den Assem)
25. Portugal – (Joana Teles)
26. Iceland – (Matthias Matthiasson)
27. Sweden – (Sarah Dawn Finer)
28. Norway – (Nadia Hasnaoui)
29. Lithuania – (Ignas Krupavičius)
30.Estonia – (Getter Jaani)
31. Denmark – (Louise Wolff)
32. Ireland – (Grainne Seoige)
33. Latvia – (Valters Fridenbergs)
34. Spain – (Elena S. Sánchez)
35. Finland – (Mr Lordi)
36. Georgia – (Sopho Toroshelidze)
37. Italy – (Ivan Bacchi)
38. Serbia – (Maja Nikolić)
39. Germany – (Anke Engelke)
40. Russia – (Oxana Fedorova)
41. Hungary – (Éva Novodomszky)
42. Israel – (Ofer Nachshon)
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Replies: 45
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Interesting initially looked good for Sweden with first Scandi at 25 but the last 10 to vote dont have Sweden in their fav five nations Finland excepted.
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looking at the last few nations makes me think its between Sweden and Serbia but really you could read anything into this
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Quick analasys of last 10 nations voting, going by their favourites from kolumbus
points 5 4 3 2 and 1 serbia 20 ukraine 19 azerbaijan 16 italy 16 romania 14 russia 12 greece 8 estonia 7 bosnia 5 macendonia 4 turkey4 uk 4 germany 3 iceland 2 ireland 2 moldova 6 france 2 sweden 2 norway and denmark 1 apols for any errors and of course only the juries but ukraine serbia and azerbijan look the three to me. |
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well if azerbaijan is at all competitive by the end of the night I will be very happy indeed - it can still be got for 90. But to be honest I think the whiny ethnic singer makes the song go off the rails a bit
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Since 2010 the voting order has been generated by an alogarithm using the Jury voting from the Friday so to make the voting more exciting and unpredicatable as to who is going to win etc. In 2010 Germany won the jury vote and they voted 3rd on the night. In 2011 Italy won the jury vote and they voted 4th on the night. So taken this into consideration that anyone of the first 10 countries could have won the jury vote then it is anyones guss as to which one of the first 10 countries could have won the jury vote. It is possible that with all the nordic countries voting in 26th to 35th place that Sweden could up to this point have given all the nil and low scores to keep them from the lead and then after the 26th set of scores could then get all the high scores and then surge into the lead and win. It does seem strange that Italy, Serbia and Russia 2nd to 4th favourites are all voting together in 37th to 40th place. Well we shall see tonght when the voting starts as to which way this going to turn out.
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If we assume that the final county will give the winners 12pts, then Isreal have given Spain 12pts 3x. Yugoslavia 3x (never serbia), Russia 2x and Sweden 2x
It was a very quick scan of the results on wiki, so if I've made any mistakes, apologies |
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Ukraine winning the jury vote wouldnt be the most ridiculous statement i've ever heard. And Ukraine are not exactly mortal enemies with the last 5 remaining countries on the voting schedule.
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the only mistake you've made is using numbers from pre-2004. there's no point using those numbers when Europe was a completely different continent.
Since 2004, Israel has given most points to Russia, Romania and Ukraine. |
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As I was saying in the other thread, Spain has received 12pts from Israel 3x.
2003, 2001 and 1995. Yugo 3x in row back in the 80's. Never serbia. Only 3pts, when they won Russia 2x Sweden 2x, including last year |
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Based on what's been said, Ukraine and Romania look to be value.
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if you want to lay me evens that russia take the 12 from israel, i will fill you for as much as you want.
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Oh, I posted it in this thread.
Interesting SS, but all 3 strike me as very unlikely top jury scorers. |
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I'd lay you evens Keen.
Not sure how tho. |
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even the Ukraine entry? the one thing you cant say about it is that it was badly sung.
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Anyone thought that with Euro 2012 almost upon us that ESC would like the publicity of 'their' song being the Euro 2012 sung by a woman of multicultural background thereby shooting down the racists in one hit.
Would make for the feelgood story of the year (apart from the grannies buyingt the church they want!!) |
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yeah, i agree. (about the extra significance of Ukraine doing well). i was going to make the same point earlier but couldn't be bothered.
i get the sense that with so few voters being given so much power to affect the outcome, that its always relatively easy to 'pressure' these jury voters to give certain desired countries the most points. i think this is the reason Italy did well with the juries last year; to reignite italy's interest (and funding) in the Eurovision. There are a few reasons for Ukraine to be the target country this year. |
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I'll see you in Kiev next year mate!
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My only hope is they are relying on Monsieur Ollande to knacker Merkel over the EU bail out and vote for Anggun
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that draw is the final shot....sweden officially is free money....2,14-2,2......last couple of hours.....just back it....
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Being the last 12 doesn't mean you win. I seem to recall Italy getting the final 12 and sneaking 2nd place off Eric. Might be wrong but that's it's stuck in my head.
Hell, Celine Dion stole one off UK in the 80s by getting a 7 at the end and winning by a point. |
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Yeah theyre not stupid, its automated to make it close throughout, not just a close finish.
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and this voting order is a really bad start to the voting for Sweden - if they get votes from those countries at the start, they're surefire winners.
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They would probably have to wait for the vote from Malta to get their first 12 - that is 9 votes in.
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I would think that the winner would give out there set of votes early so it looks as though others are ahead of them in the voting and then play catch up with the votes that they receive from others to then take the lead.
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Easy bet to start with then - Greece. 12 pts from Albania. 7 pts ish from Montenegro.
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It seems the market has noticed that.
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Russia seem to have lot of their main allies early - surely indicator that they aint winning this?
So why are they so short?? |
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Everyone just loves the grannies. Simple as that. all the fiver and tenner punters are having a stab for some fun. That's all it can be.
Take me today for example. Had all the wife's friend and their daughters round. I'm seen as the ESC geek (which I proudly admit to) but after ten minutes and me showing them the grannies they're all laughing and seeing the fun of it and probably half of the ten will now watch the show tonight. My ESC missionary work will never cease!! |
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stu, they have Ukraine and Belarus voting 5th and 6th, and should get 12 pts from both. But otherwise I think most of their voting friends are evenly spread.
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there is a period just after the voting starts, in which Moldova will get a lot of votes - could be worth a punt on them too as they may actually lead the voting for a while.
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guys i wanna ask something in the bet best of friends the winner (lets say for greece) is the country that gets 12 points from greece?
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Just a point about Israel - there are lots of former Russian Israelis these days - I would not be surprise seeing a 10 or 12 for Russia from them this year given that it is an appealing televote song and there is a natural affinity.
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Yes, donkey, that is correct.
Serbia to give their 12 to Bosnia at 1.31 is buying money. A few others on there are pretty much superglued on but that's one of the higher priced ones. |
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Greece-Cyprus is the strongest friend link in the Eurovision by far.
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and I agree about Russia and Israel. Often 10 pts from Israel to Russia, although it never seems to be reversed. Russia give their 12 pts to their former Soviet states.
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The question is, do we lay Sweden and plough into them later, taking the risk that they are going to storm to victory and get unexpected votes from these early voters.
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israelis never give points to germany and always give some points to russia, i think we all know why
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Something tells me the Israel vote won't be going to Norway this year either
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I am more inclined to think that the winner and higher placed of the jury vote yesterday will give out there votes within the first half of the voting as per the last 2 years and on that the short priced favourites which all appear in the last half of the voting may not have therfore won or placed high with the jury voting. Either my theory is wrong or there was a suprise winner of the jury voting yesterday.
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