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15 May 12
03:44
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Date Joined:
05 Dec 02
Huge value here. Cyprus have been coming in all week, from 65s to 36s, but the top 10 odds havent moved at all. The song is very strong. Greece are 1.88 for a top 10, and are 55s to win, Cyprus are 36s to win and are 3.8 for a top 10. Turkey are 200s to win and are 2.8 for the top 10. I think Cyprus should be close to evens after their charge this week, and 2.5 at most.
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Replies: 22
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i agree, @3.8 she certainly is value...i have her in my top 10 comfortably.
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The reason the odds aren't coming in are probably that one of the biggest bettors on Eurovision, Daniel from Sofabet (stakes over £100k per year on it) is opposing it. Its basically his banker bet ie Cyprus not to be top 10.
Cyprus is fanwank ie polling well because its the kind of song the Only Gays And Eccentrices crowd like but generally does poorly with televoters and particularly juries. Its also one I expect to fail - I'm not sure it will qualify tbh but top 10 I'd say theres no value there at all No offence Gamblor but are you a regular Eurovision bettor? Just comparing its odds to Greece and Turkey doesn't show much understanding of the market tbh  |
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Oh and Milan doesn't have a scooby doo. My nap is ignore anything tipped by Milan
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Sorry I'm in a particulary flippant frame of mind this morning
 The reason its wrong to compare Cyprus to Greece and Turkey (if u didn't know) is that these 2 countries have large diasporo votes ie expats working in other countries who through patriotism vote for their home nation. Because of this these two countries have an exceptional past record for high placed ESC finishes ie top 10 or top 5. Thats why the odds disparity - people may believe they aren't good enough songs to win but fear that this voting strength may see a top 10 finish Cyprus has no such diasporo vote. If you arent a regular Eurovision watcher and bettor then you won't have a feel perhaps for which type of song has failed relative to market expectations. I'd say from my experience Cyprus is one of these. Good luck however if u rate the song so highly, as Milan does, that you have a bet |
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I have been quite successful over the years on the eurovision. And if you think that expats have an influence, then you strenghten my argument. Cyprus have friends and will get 12 points from Greece, and at least 6 from Turkey. I agree that it shouldnt be evens to make the top 10, but 3.8 was too much( down to 3.5 in the last few hours). I backed top ten at 5.6 last week. The song is definitely strong. I think there's too many dance tunes, but I'm very happy with my 5.6, and would be happy with 3.8. The fact that they start with 18 points gives them a good chance. They will only need about 100-110 for a top 10 placing. This year is very open, and the points required will drop for a top 10 placing.
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"gamblor the great"...if i were you i'd totally agree with "bexley"...he's the "school bully" of the forum and he will make you very uncomfortable on here if you oppose his opinions.
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Bex is right that Dan from sofabet has been holding it's price up.
But I think to dismiss as just fanw@nk is lazy thinking. Especially after yesterdays surprisingly impressive rehearsal. 'Fanw@k' has become the new 'Groupthink'. Often a term thrown about when you're argument is weak. I'm neither g@y nor particuarly eccentric and this sort of Europop isn't usually my cup of tea, but for me it's a very good example of the genre. I take Bex's point that unlike Greece or Turkey it doesn't have a diaspora vote, but being a Greek Cypriot, having been a contestant on Greek XF, where she outlasted the Greek singer, I don't believe it's too fanciful to believe it could benefit from the Greek diaspora vote. Especially if it continues to outperform the Greek entry in the rehearsals and on the night. Personally I'd price it up as somewhere between 2.5 and 3 for top 10. |
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Having said all that to take on Dan in the top 10 is often the road to the poorhouse.
I'm happy to take the punt on this one though. Especially after the rehearsal, which was better than Greece in every way. It will probably be drawn 2 in the final now  |
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Yep, Milan. That's unfair. Bex is an excellent judge on these shows. Even tho we rarely agree
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It reminds me a great deal of Estonia last year does Cyprus, very strange presentation and a bit manic. Fast tempo solo female song = poorhouse for me
Its wishful thinking in the extreme that it may get Greek diasporo when Greec is still in, no? Even if Greece go out and she doesn't you support your country, not neccesarily a neighbour and not someone who happened to be on a tv show in your country. Just imo |
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neither gay nor eccentric
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squares its my pet name for OGAE who usually get a lot wrong with their rankings and particulary when its a song like Cyprus - but its an argument I have had countless times now on other threads so I wont rehash it all again here
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lol maybe slightly eccentric sqaures. You'd have to be to watch all of these shows and love songs like Moldova.
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Stavros was a greek cypriot on BGT and I'm sure plenty of Greeks in the uk were picking up their phones for him and his kid.
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I was only taking the p out of what FLL had said bex, so nw - nothing needs rehashing for me.
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If this "Dan", whoever he is, is holding up the price at 4s then it's surprising he has any money left to gamble with because he should be laying much lower. Anything over 3s is value. I'm on at some of the biggest prices down all the way down to 3.75s and will be laying off at under 3s at some point.
In the semis it's on after Finnish entry, then the pathetic Facebook song and before the polar opposite Danish song, which is followed by the Grannies. It will wake people up in the semis big time and with friends voting is guaranteed a final place. A small bit of luck in the draw will see it comfortably home at a very nice price. There are similar acts but she's very young and very telegenic, remember it's EuroVISION. A shoe in for qualification too. |
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I have already laid Cyprus for qualification, but it's actually my 4th favourite song in the contest so make of that what you will lol. I thought Iceland or Cyprus would be the "shock" failure of this semi, but am now thinking both will probably make it and maybe there won't be any shocks this year after all. Having said that, even if it makes it through, I can't see it anywhere near the top 10. It's the kind of song like Estonia last year and Iceland the year before that has appeal for lovers of a catchy pop song, but is destined to finish mid table at best. It's also folly to suggest Cyprus can reply on 6 points from Turkey as the last time Turkey could vote for Cyprus (2010) they gave it 0 points...
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another "daniel deciple"
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Not sure how much of effect it'll have but the general Greek diaspora vote will be swelled by the fact young Ivi was on Greek X Factor last year, so she already has a profile.
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Indeed honest.
As far as many Greeks will be concerned she's as Greek as someone from Anthens |
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Athens even lol
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