Eurovision top 10 poll -pre rehearsal

what happens when the netherlands wins? ;)

Oh well whats another 80 quid?

Good point about wondering whether to back the rags, George.  Nice to have them green but then again, what's the point?  I like Israels's song and just £3 will make it a 4-figure green but then what's the point, there's no way it can win. 

All my green for now is in the middle of the pack.  None of the top 6 grab me and I won't be wasting time trying to get value at the foot of the table - even if I put on £2 on a 400 to lay it off at 200 for a free stab at £400, what would be the point if it can't/won't win.

As for UK, it won't win although it's a pretty good song.  The draw, UK's lack of friends and other songs being better will all ensure UK finish in a Blue-like 10th-15th.

Think I might just wait for the final honest...but then barring a couple of no hopers sneaking in the usual suspects will go through and their prices will mostly drop especially if Sweden drifts a couple of points after rehearsals.  A big green can soon seem not big enough.

Struggling to get a real handle on this year's ESC. Last year was easy. France a false fav and azer the likely winner.  This year for me its not about finding the winner its about maximising potential profit.  Good in one sense but hard work and not much fun in another.

That's a good assessment of the market there, George. 

I'm now just picking off prices that are too high and laying off 25% lower (where I can) to hopefully set a number of free bets come the final.

Also laid most of the Top 6 (on the face of it a dangerous game) which is pretty much my tactic last year (France, Ireland and UK) and it paid off so hoping for another favourable outcome.

Made many errors last year (Hell, I was even on here arguing that Romania was a decent song!!!) but thankfully still came out ahead.  This year, being more selective.  Amazing how less job security and a new baby can make you more guarded in your betting! 

Yeah honest but sometimes fear freezes the soul.  Just heard my job is safe (whatever that means these days) but I suspect if I had to part rely on betting for an income my mojo would disappear.

That said I am trying to trade more and gamble less.  Your 25% method would give you an all green book at some point would it? Always a good position.

ESC is a funny old game. Most winners I think only usually average 5-8 scores from each country iirc and that brings a lot of potential winners into the frame especially given the jury vote to factor in.

Valium helps with the fear.

Or a Camberwell Carrot?

That tends to cloud your judgement tho.

Whatever I need booze.   Or cake and fine wine. Was valium and the fear a quote from Withnail? rang a bell. Great film for quotes.

I don't think so. It's just a well known tranquilser

[he pulls Withnail's cigarette out of his mouth and puts it in his] Withnail: ... Isaac Parkin: Hey, show no fear! .... Marwood: Give me a Valium, I'm getting the FEAR!

There you go.

Film set in 1969 so if they were betting on it they would have needed valiun with a four way tie. This quote even better. Steven Spielberg's favourite film. Easy to see why.

Indeed I often wonder where Norman is now. Probably wintering with his mother in Guildford. A cat, rain, Vim under the sink, and both bars on. But old now, there is no true beauty without decay.

Request to ESC bettors - let's get some more Top 10s on here, folks!!

Germany 12
Italy 10
Turkey 8
Spain 7
Denmark 6
Sweden 5
Russia 4
UK 3
Norway 2
Serbia 1

A lot does depend on the draw though

I know it's cutting out most of the faves but...

1. Germany
2. Ireland
3. Greece
4. Spain
5. Serbia
6. Norway
7. Romania
8. Azerbaijan
9. UK
10. France

Bosnia, Sweden, Russia, Italy just outside.

Denmark, Iceland, Cyprus this years big fails.  Am laying all in the top 10 market, and have already laid 2 to qualify.

Ireland 2nd! Brave call

Agree Cyprus could flop badly

A fellow Iceland layer for top 10

I thought I was the only one.

I also agree Cyrpus could also flop if her live vocals are as bad as some of her performances on youtube, even though I like the song and much prefer it to Greece.

I am surprised nearly 18 grand has been matched on top 10 market - I can't seem to get anything matched on any country

Sorry if it's been mentioned already but why is there a top 4 and a top 5 market? Wont this just dilute the liquidity?

It's so mugs like me think there's a nice little earner trading between the two markets....only for Denmark to kill me!!!!  AAAARGH!

Apr 16, 2012 -- 7:13PM, popking wrote:

I know it's cutting out most of the faves but...1. Germany2. Ireland3. Greece4. Spain5. Serbia6. Norway7. Romania8. Azerbaijan9. UK10. FranceBosnia, Sweden, Russia, Italy just outside.Denmark, Iceland, Cyprus this years big fails.  Am laying all in the top 10 market, and have already laid 2 to qualify.

Very good luck in getting Denmark and Iceland not to qualify....

so much dross in the semi's...almost impossible for "Denmark & Iceland" not to qualify imo.

may as well have a go, really struggling to find "10" worthy to be frank.

1.GREECE
2.NORWAY
3.FINLAND
4.CYPRUS
5.SPAIN
6.SWEDEN
7.ROMANIA
8.UK
9.ITALY
10.Really struggling now...Pineapple heads or The Grannies from Hell maybe.
nice to see eastern europe got a pathetic bunch of entries this year

Apr 17, 2012 -- 9:36AM, MilanBarosh wrote:

so much dross in the semi's...almost impossible for "Denmark & Iceland" not to qualify imo.

Popking last years 'shocks' were flagged up as possibles on here (Turkey and Norway) as possibles because of draw (2 and 5) lack of voting allies and possibly unfriendly jury songs.

Iceland has a poor draw but is 6th in voting allies and I'd say jury friendly. Denmark has a good draw, 9th in voting allies and probably jury friendly. Very different set of circumstances and, although we are talking long odds on shots here, I see no point in opposing them.

Cyprus could certainly fail its one I have been flagging up as a 'fan fav flop' for quite some time but with it being 7th in voting allies and drawn in the second half I'd rather not take it on at this point.

Doubt I'll make you reconsider as you will have done your research and obviously don't rate the songs, just giving a brief counter argument

Iceland and Denmark could certainly be worth opposing top 10 and overall though

and I have been syaing for a couple of months Cyprus should be about 200/1

la la love

For the record, I am not laying Denmark to qualify - just Iceland and Cyprus.

I reckon Denmark will qualify with ease, but I struggle to see them troubling the top half of the table, and the songs is similar to Anna Bergendahl as some others have pointed out which did not fare very well.

I don't mind either song (Denmark or Iceland) but both are a bit bland and lack impact.  Iceland's early draw sealed the deal for me.  I think they will squeeze into the final, but on balance worth a lay.  I felt the same about Turkey last year - should squeeze in but worth a try.

Apr 17, 2012 -- 4:55PM, popking wrote:

I reckon Denmark will qualify with ease, but I struggle to see them troubling the top half of the table, and the songs is similar to Anna Bergendahl as some others have pointed out which did not fare very well.I don't mind either song (Denmark or Iceland) but both are a bit bland and lack impact.  Iceland's early draw sealed the deal for me.  I think they will squeeze into the final, but on balance worth a lay.  I felt the same about Turkey last year - should squeeze in but worth a try.

So popking do you rsckon Iceland isn't likely to get a good jury vote in this semi?

I have calculated its 6th in televoting strength. If its previously reliable vote givers come through again and it finishes in the top 3 or 4 in the jury vote then every other country can probably give it nil points and it will still qualify.

This is a completely different scenario from Turkey last year who were as good as friendless and had a poor draw and a very dull song and performer, with therefore a pretty low jury vote potential.

I wont wish you luck with this one as I'd be gutted if Iceland didn't make it through. I make it about 1,000,000,000/1 on chance to qualify

I must also disagree with your bland and lacking in impact argument for Iceland. It may have some other faults but those that argue against it don't gennereally even level that criticism at it.
Song preferences are very subjective but I think you are way off the mark with this one. Denamrk I could possibly sgre with your description.

God my typing is so bad. I actually do know how to spell believe it or not, but it all comes out wrong when I type - I think I may have some dyslexia type condition

I'd argue Iceland is bland and worthy. Which is why the fans like it. The worthy bit anyway.

Denmark is a much more immediate song to my ears.

I could have had a good go at singing the Danish song after the 1st listen.

I've listened to Iceland a couple of dozen times and would still have no idea how goes if asked to sing it.

I think Iceland would qualify if it was just down to the Juries, but I don't think they will poll anywhere near as high in the televote.

It's a big fan favourite, but with a terrible draw and it does not have any sort of strong memorable hook.  Iceland have not fared very well in a lot of the recent televotes (Yohanna and Is It True probably bolster their otherwise weak figures) and have failed to qualify with stronger favourites than this before (2005 being the big fail when they were 2nd favourite to win the whole thing).

I think it will get through (in 6th-10th place) but at the odds it has to be a lay.  Russia, Romania, Ireland, Greece take the top 4 spots for me, and then I see Denmark 5th, with Moldova, Iceland, Belgium, Switzerland, Israel, Hungary, Albania, Cyprus, Finland & Latvia battling for the scraps.

it goes*

Fair enough popking.

I'll make one last attempt then. Iceland may in fact finish 6th to 10th but you have to look at how many points are actually required to qualify. Around 60 points seems enough to get 10th spot based on last year. If Iceland finish 6th with 100 points and 7-10th score 60-80 then would you still say you were close to collecting? I certainly wouldn't

Lets look at some maths based on lst year:

Iceland is 6th in Televoting strength per my own analysis due to points due from Denmark, Finland and strangely enough Hungary. Lets give it say 24 points from these and say just another 17 points from the other remaining countries, only 1 point per country average = 41 points
Lets give it say 6th with the juries which again I think is way too low - based on last years semi lets say 85 points

The combined points used for placing the song would be about 57 (dont know the exact calculation, maybe someone else can help out but thats my best guesstimate after analysing last years semi data) which would make it a borderline qualifier. It would have made it through from semi 1 last year but finished 11th in semi 2

If you think it can do as badly as the scenario above then lay it. If you think like I do I'm being incredibly harsh on it then it sails through

and remember that despite what you or leaves may think of its televote potential this is a song 2nd in the ESC forum ranking and 3rd in the Kolumbus pre chart. The amount of televote points I'm giving it above would place it about 14th of 18 in its semi

Doesn't compute for me

with regards to the qualification chances of Iceland...i have them qualifying by default myself...this is one of those "video" songs...it appears to be pretty decent on video but live it sounds a right mess...it was i that compared denmark to Anna Berghendal but she was so much better than this Danish entry...it will qualify like Iceland not on merit but by default... the quality of many in this semi is extremely poor.
this lot would make the ears bleed in a deaf clinic.
Albania
Austria
Belgium
Hungary
Latvia
Moldova
Montenegro
San Marino
Switzerland

I care very little about the results of the polls you mention given that every year, there is one or more song that polls really high in such fan polls and crashes out.  Iceland for me is the one that will so this year, and Sweden to a lesser extent as I think they have top 10 chances but will not win.  I expect Iceland to make the final, but finish in the bottom 10.  I know it's a minority view.

A lot has been said about the success of duets at Eurovision, but there are plenty of similarly structured songs to Never Forget (not duets) that have failed badly in recent years.  Valentine Lost, another Icelandic entry was not that far removed from what we have this year and that failed to qualify.  It was not as well thought of as Never Forget, but even still it was expected to get through the semi and did not.  Admittedly it was before Juries, but I am unconvinced Iceland will rank in the Juries top 3 in this semi.  4th or 5th with the Juries, and out of the televote top 10, and it could start to have problems.

I stress, I think it will qualify and probably on balance in 6th-8th place, but at the odds it has to be a lay.  It is a 4/6 shot for me, not a 1/10 shot.

i'd say there is a chance of non-qualification for both Iceland & Denmark...i will not be laying either...as i've said, the opposition is really sad stuff.

Apr 17, 2012 -- 8:03PM, popking wrote:

I care very little about the results of the polls you mention given that every year, there is one or more song that polls really high in such fan polls and crashes out.  Iceland for me is the one that will so this year, and Sweden to a lesser extent as I think they have top 10 chances but will not win.  I expect Iceland to make the final, but finish in the bottom 10.  I know it's a minority view.A lot has been said about the success of duets at Eurovision, but there are plenty of similarly structured songs to Never Forget (not duets) that have failed badly in recent years.  Valentine Lost, another Icelandic entry was not that far removed from what we have this year and that failed to qualify.  It was not as well thought of as Never Forget, but even still it was expected to get through the semi and did not.  Admittedly it was before Juries, but I am unconvinced Iceland will rank in the Juries top 3 in this semi.  4th or 5th with the Juries, and out of the televote top 10, and it could start to have problems.I stress, I think it will qualify and probably on balance in 6th-8th place, but at the odds it has to be a lay.  It is a 4/6 shot for me, not a 1/10 shot.

All you have done is reiterated your opinion and said nothing about my example based on the maths.

By all means have your gut instinct on the song and ignore some relevant factual information on voting allies and the way televote and jury vote combined last year

I guess we all have different approaches

sorry re reading your comments thats not true I apologise

Don't worry about it.  It's true I have not placed as much weight behind the so called allies as you mainly because I think a lot of their bigger points in the last few years came for Is It True so that was really for the song rather than any diaspora.  Obviously the countries where there is diaspora too have voted for other things like Je Ne Sais Quoi, but they have not had that many points outside of Scandanavia in the past 10 years or so.

3 top 10 finishes in 20 years does not inspire me, especially when you compare to the likes of Greece, Romania, Russia etc.

I agree with what you have said about the likely points total needed.  If anything, I think it may well be less than you state, and it would not surprise me to see some songs qualify on more like 50pts as there is less strength in depth.

Are there any even half decent polls for ESC? I did some real number crunching last year and concluded that they are all sh1t.  ESC fans are like the AI forumites; they are too close to it and too erudite in their insights.  ESC is all about casual viewers who have a visceral connect with the winner.  Lordi, Lena, Rybak, Ruslana all had that connection. Sweden for me has the best chance so far of doing the same but we will know more with the rehearsals.

George FWIW I think you can see through fan polls to an extent and draw some useful conclusions. The kolumbus pre chart you may have read me or leaves prattling on about doesn't necessarily find the winner but the winner does appear to be in its top say 6-8 placings at worst.

http://www.kolumbus.fi/jarpen/

Milan does Moldova really make your ears bleed? I think it's great. I can't get the tune out of my head. But I don't want to anyway.

I also love the video version of the much despised Georgia

Although I accept that the live version does rather show it up to be a tuneless atrocity.

Apr 17, 2012 -- 9:19PM, bexley wrote:

George FWIW I think you can see through fan polls to an extent and draw some useful conclusions. The kolumbus pre chart you may have read me or leaves prattling on about doesn't necessarily find the winner but the winner does appear to be in its top say 6-8 placings at worst.http://www.kolumbus.fi/jarpen/

Thanks. On the face of it looks like a sensible top 10. Loreen p1ssing it. Be interesting if she wins every poll like Rybak did. With him most of us thought the polls were right. With Loreen looks like some are happy to say they are all wrong. You pays your money etc.

I think Italy will win - this song really stands out. I like Spain as well and think they could possibly make it to the top 5. Serbia and Sweden will probably be in the top 5 as well. I definitely see Greece and Denmark in the top 10, they could possibly also be in the top 5 - depending on their live performance... Beyond that it gets difficult to predict for me... Moldova and Iceland could surprise and capture a top 10 slot (or more) if they can improve their performance... Russia won't be in the top 10 - no way... Ireland will not do well if they qualify... The UK will end up somewhere in mid-range and I think the same holds true for Germany... I see France more toward the bottom of the table...

ah France, i wondered when someone was gunna mention Anggun...i for one think she is a class act and is the best female singer in the competition...Italy 9/1 ? when France has a better singer and a better song is at 150/1 madness...i know being able to sing is not a requirement in the eurovision song contest anymore lol...last year Azer and Italy both gave that credance for sure.
"Vive La France" as they say in Baku
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ory_BSpmApk

Shhhh Milan - you're right to mention France but keep it quiet for a while longer so I can keep topping up at the ridiculous price! 

I'll say more on here nearer to the time but there are many reasons that 160 price is wrong

Say now honestcl, then we can stop you wasting your money.

France is too high - simple as that. 

Last time I posted along these lines about prices that will drop 3 were right (France dropped by 50 points - now risen again, Greece dropped and Cyprus dropped from 55 to the 20s and now back around 40) and the other has stayed pretty much the same (Norway stuck near 30 for some absurd reason)

I'll say it again - France will trade at 110 or lower some time between now and the last week of May.  Not going far as saying it'll win (cos that's Norway) but as a trade (which I and lots of you have looked for this time around rather than the 'home run swing') it screams value.

Just gutted I let the racism card cloud my judgment because I thought the same about Ukraine and I got laid at 65 last night from my orginal back of 75 - that was trading at 200 or so a while back - really should have smashed that 200!!

What was competent yet completely forgettable? France. Sorry love.

I have to say all the acts gave good performances except for France. Surprised this wasn’t mentioned in your review. She sounded weak and way off key through most of it. Definitely the worst performer.

Those are the views of people at Amsterdam. What do you see in France?

wow Henry...you've got that totally wrong dude...Anggun is a pro and has performed all over the world, she is the best female vocalist in the comp, take a look 'live' here...faultless.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oT9VVyKsIMg

still totally perplexed as to Italy's price compared to France...and Henry take my advice and watch the rehearsals, then you can decide for yourself instead of listening to loons in nightclubs etc.

I'm sure she can pull it off. But what is it? An unoriginal dated pop song. Sung in French.

i'm not saying France will win it, i just like it so much more than Italy and as i've said the price difference is just unbelievable when evaluating the two entries.

a little secret...i have on my desktop, Greece,Norway,France,Sweden,Cyprus,& Romania...a big ABBA fan for many years and i like Happy songs with good Melody & Harmony, probably why Italy does not appeal to me i suppose

I'm getting very sad. Or maybe just very sad full stop, but I had a dream about Eurovision last night and Netherlands win easily

if i had the same dream '5'...it would have been a phucking nightmare i can tellya

Sub-total


1- Sweden 70
2- spain 64
3- Norway 60
4- Serbia 47
5- Greece 42
6- Germany 36
7- Denmark 34
8- Iceland 31
9-turkey 29
10- Russia 28
-------------------------
Romania 25
Ireland 15
Cyprus 15
Italy 15
Ukraine 13
france12
azer 10
uk 10
Estonia 10
Finland 8
Hungary 5
slovenia1

Interesting mugptr.  As much as I don't like to see France languish (can't stop myself taking those £2 at 160 - just done it again!) I'm realistic enough to realise this chart may well be pretty close to the actual 'chart' come the Final.....just as long as Norway are two places higher!

Pulled up the poll for the FORUM 2011  - was a slightly different format with only top 5 picked pre-rehearsal.


1st azer   Finished - 1st
2nd bosnia - 6th
3hrd uk - 11th
5th estonia- 24th
5th sweeden - 3hrd

But I thought all ESC polls were sh1t? ...wisdom of crowds and all that

There's a market up on smarkets for anyone who fancies shifting some cash over there.
Prices tend to just follow the betfair ones, but only 2% commission and no PC

Don't know what this lots previous record is but Cyprus seems an odd choice. 

http://www.eurovisionary.com/eurovision-news/infoer-eurovision-song-contest-...

.http://www.eurovisionary.com/eurovision-news/infoer-eurovision-song-contest...

feck it just google eurovisionary

They've obviously not heard her sing live yet;)

They are "experts" so they don't even have to hear her sing at all.

lol tbf she beat the greek singer on greek xf.

I thought Greece were a shoo in for qualification, but I think Gert has made a decent argument for them missing out on sofabet.

It's in a similar position to Turkey last year. Early draw. A number of it's usual allies in the other semi and a not very good song. I can't see the juries giving it much. It will probably sneak through on the pv, though from trap 3, who knows..

Cyprus might be the key.
If she can produce a decent vocal and an interesting performance then it could take pv's from Greece, given it's later draw and it being a better song imo

For some reason Greece are one of the 6 or so countries I have bought to go green.  Just based on the "experts" I have had some Cyprus as well. Can't even remember what it sounds like but I know experts never get it wrong.

By the way Mrs B has Holland her least favourite but I have her green anyway.

least favourite????????

Divorce her!

I only allowed her to listen to about 8 mind....and she was in a bad mood when she heard it.....does that make her an ESC expert?

ESC viewers are usually happy, so no......and Holland is a very jolly song. So no wonder she wasn't keen

Bit repetitive though innit?

Repitition is the key to eurovision.

It's not the mercury music prize

1968 it would be fav...needs to be bang up to date 1990s like Sweden to win now

Probably true.

Folk music is timeless tho

Bit like a little peace maybe?

Miles better than that.

She reminds me of someone from the 60's but I'm useless with names

Going by youtube she has a mountain to climb. Worst likes to dislikes ratio I can recall seeing and its watched mostly by middle aged blokes who don't vote.

Exactly.

Women will love it

It has no chance tbf. But if I can get over 300 again I'll be backing

Greece has too many voting allies to fail to go through, its basic maths but I'm betting bored laying everything on a plate for everyone like my Iceland calculation on the other thread

Oh and that guy Gert talks so much sheeit its incredible. Pages and pages of either the bleedin obvious or utter nonsense with little inbetween

  I thought it was a reasonable case.

Sorry leaves I almost joined Sofabet before my Iceland rebuff simply to slag Gert off but thought better of it

I have Greece #1 for voting allies. Even using my most conservative estimate I would have to see it falling to #15th or lower in jury to fail to qualify. Unless the vocal is horrendous or the staging terrible I can't see that - you have Austria, Russia, San Marino, Montenegro etc all vying for bottom of the jury vote
Cyprus far more likely to fail these tests than Greece imo

TTT - anymore?

Sub-total


1- Sweden 70
2- spain 64
3- Norway 60
4- Serbia 47
5- Greece 42
6- Germany 36
7- Denmark 34
8- Iceland 31
9-turkey 29
10- Russia 28
-------------------------
Romania 25
Ireland 15
Cyprus 15
Italy 15
Ukraine 13
france12
azer 10
uk 10
Estonia 10
Finland 8
Hungary 5
slovenia1

TTT - anymore?

Sub-total


1- Sweden 70
2- spain 64
3- Norway 60
4- Serbia 47
5- Greece 42
6- Germany 36
7- Denmark 34
8- Iceland 31
9-turkey 29
10- Russia 28
-------------------------
Romania 25
Ireland 15
Cyprus 15
Italy 15
Ukraine 13
france12
azer 10
uk 10
Estonia 10
Finland 8
Hungary 5
slovenia1

ttt
Sweden did indeed win last years forum poll

Reading the thread, the forum also picked Azerbaijan the year before.

Here is my top 10 from seeing the preview videos.

12 Ukraine
10 San Marino
8 Moldova
7 Belarus
6 Austria
5 Georgia
4 Croatia
3 Russia
2 Norway
1 Hungary

This top 10 will no doubt be completly revamped after seing the actual rehearsals and semi-final live performances.

This is the forum poll from last year Corby

Doh (slaps palm on forehead).