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viva el presidente!
24 Jan 12 17:02
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Jun 06
| Topic/replies: 17,982 | Blogger: viva el presidente!'s blog
markets now up.

thanks to whoever put that 13K offer up for the Artist at 1.32. if you'd dripped that in 500 or a K at a time, i'd have been suckered into laying loads of it. Happy

my early slightly random tip - Midnight in Paris for best screenplay. Just because they love giving that one toWoody.
Pause Switch to Standard View ***oscars 2012***
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Report ghoststory. January 30, 2012 7:19 AM GMT
Really like betting on this event as if you do your research you can get some great formlines thru the SAG awards which have just been given.....  I see that Meryl has been rolled for best actress and i#d be keen to take her on around $1.50 at the Academy A.
Viola Davis is a massive chance of winning this.....She is outstanding...the right minority and lets face it its nearly embarrassing to give it to Streep again.....

I will have to do my research but i#m pretty sure its something like 8 out of 10 times the Sag winner goes on to win the Academy Award....
Report anton_chigurh January 30, 2012 4:13 PM GMT
Yep, SAG is a good tell and makes Clooney far too short, should be past 3's.
Report smellthecoffee February 9, 2012 11:37 PM GMT
Sorry, but it's a myth that the SAG's point towards the Oscar winners. Streep won the SAG Best Actor award in 2009 but was overlooked by the Oscar Academy, even though they are supposed to be made up of the same people! By the way, as I have seen all the nominated films, I think "Extremely Loud..." is a ridiculous price (170@the moment). This could represent an excellent Back and Lay bet in the next couple of weeks - There is a lot of canvassing for this film on the LA circuit, much in the same way as Crash in 2006, when it won 3 Oscars including best film. It was backed from about 20/1 to 4/1 in 24 hours! "Extremely Loud..." has that same 'feeling'. Disagree about Streep too. She hasn't won an Oscar for 30 years and I think the academy will have this on their minds when voting for Best Actress. Viola Davis, however, is a mighty fine actress and her day will come. BTW Streep and Davis were both nominated in 2009 for the same film, 'Doubt'.
Report Horangi. February 17, 2012 11:21 PM GMT
Don't waste a penny on ELAIC, doesn't have a one in a million hope of winning best pic.  Artist almost has it in the bag, only a couple other movies with a prayer.
Report smellthecoffee February 18, 2012 1:51 AM GMT
Horangi; While I agree you are probably right, there are upsets in the Oscars sometimes. Anyway surely the Best Actress betting is wrong:
*Believe it or not, the last time an actress won the lead Oscar without having taken a Golden Globe first was 10 years ago, when Sissy Spacek won for "In the Bedroom" over eventual Oscar winner Halle Berry in "Monster’s Ball." (Much of that can be explained by Spacek winning both the New York and Los Angeles Film Critics awards for her big comeback.)

*I suspect that some are reading too much into the SAG win by Davis; "The Help" had simply been seen by far more Guild members than "The Iron Lady." Hilary Swank in "Boys Don’t Cry," Nicole Kidman in "The Hours" and Marion Cotillard in "La Vie en Rose" all stumbled at SAG after winning Globes, but still rebounded on Oscar night. Streep can do the same.

*She’s due for her third Oscar
We’ll never see the numbers, but most pundits would probably guess that Streep came extremely close to winning for both 2009’s "Julie and Julia" and 2008’s "Doubt." While Helen Mirren likely won by a landslide for 2006’s "The Queen," Streep might have finished second for "The Devil Wears Prada."

*Sentiment would finally appear to be on her side this year, after almost 30 years of consistent Oscar losses. This is only the second nomination for Davis and her first leading role, and "The Help" is not a starring vehicle for her the way that "The Iron Lady" is for Streep. Davis is 16 years younger and many voters will feel that she’ll have plenty of chances for the Oscar in the future.

*She isn’t hurt by "The Help."
It’s true that being in a Best Picture contender improves an acting nominee’s chances. It’s probably made the difference in several close races, like Sandra Bullock in "The Blind Side" over Streep in "Julie in Julia," Sean Penn in "Milk" over Mickey Rourke in "The Wrestler," Kate Winslet in "The Reader" over Streep in "Doubt," Russell Crowe in "Gladiator" over both Tom Hanks in "Cast Away" and Ed Harris in "Pollock," and Kevin Spacey in "American Beauty" over Denzel Washington in "The Hurricane."

But keep in mind that "The Help" earned just four nominations, and zero outside of the picture and acting categories. Even "The Iron Lady" scored for Best Makeup. That suggests that "The Help" doesn’t have the type of broad support in the Academy which might sweep Davis to victory. And as I explained earlier, Davis doesn’t carry the film the way that a traditional starring role does. With Octavia Spencer looking like a sure thing for Best Supporting Actress, voters may think that’s enough help for "The Help." One out of four isn’t bad.
Report watermelon February 20, 2012 10:53 PM GMT
smellthecoffee, Viola Davis is very likely going to win.  The movie was one of the biggest money-makers in the year in the US including landing a nomination for Best Picture, whereas The Iron Lady was a stinker in the States. Viola got a rousing ovation from the SAG awards audience, including bringing many of them to tears.  She won SAG and the BFCAs, the two most important precursors, and virtually every expert who talks to voters says she is the one who will win.  You're on a different planet on this one mate, it's barely a race.
Report smellthecoffee February 21, 2012 12:36 AM GMT
The simple fact is, as I have already said, Streep is well overdue to be recognised by the Academy. If Davis is 'very likely going to win' maybe that 1.75 should be swallowed up and replaced by 1.09, as in the case of 'The Artist' which really is very likely to win. Oh, or maybe those people asking for 2.5 for Streep - thats right some 'idiots' want to back ms. Streep@6/4 - maybe they are living on a different planet. Let's continue this conversation on Monday 27th when we both know what we are talking about...The Help has been nominated for Best Actress and Supporting Actress: it won't win both and Octavia Spencer is the one to put your money on, trust me.
Respect
STC.
Report watermelon February 24, 2012 7:03 PM GMT
Being due has nothing to do with the Oscars, if it did Viola Davis would have an even bigger shot because she was robbed a couple years back.  As far as odds, I really can't comment on that because I don't bet that much.  Maybe because most people are dumb?  Nobody has heard of The Help?  Who knows.  But you look at a chart like this: http://www.awardsdaily.com/Predictions/main.php  and it's practically unanimous in people picking Viola Davis.  These are people who make their livings by discussing the Oscars (and similar awards). So I guess all of these Oscar voters are tricking them and secretly voting for Meryl?  Is that your angle here?  As far as "trusting you", me granddad told me something once: Don't ever trust someone that says "trust me". By the way, not only is Viola Davis the only actress in the field in a Best Picture film, she's in two of them this year!
Report Horangi. February 24, 2012 9:34 PM GMT
Actress is a tight call, I think Davis will prevail but certainly not a category to pile into one way or another.  I honestly think Michelle Williams could shock here, well worth a bet given the odds available anyways.  She stands out a bit from Davis/Streep/Close and is well respected.  While I think Davis will win I don't think its worth backing sub 1.75 on her.

And smellthecoffee that movie is not upsetting in a million parallel universes.  It has next to no support, it was shocking that it got nominated.
Report smellthecoffee February 25, 2012 12:52 AM GMT
Watermelon: Do your research. If you follow charts such as awardsdaily.com/predictions you will find they only go with popular opinion: They don't actually ask every academy voter who they voted for! But I'll say it again The Help will not win 2 major acting honours, simply because a)The Academy like to be seen to be fair and will respect the other actors nominated b)Octavia Spencer will definitely win for best supporting Actress c)'Being due'has everything to do with The Oscars: Streep has been overlooked 15 times in her career. Embarrasing, really.
Horangi: Did you hear the BBC news report when ELAIC was nominated? it got the loudest cheer. Agreed, it probably is the worst reviewed film to ever receive a nomination but bad films have won before.
Respect
STC.
Report johnwark February 25, 2012 7:12 PM GMT
your not making great arguements for Streep there "like to be seen to be fair". Can't see how you can say Streep is "due", she's done ok not like when Scorsese was due as he'd had nothing.

Think the odds are about right, just favouring Davis
Report Monstrous Bryan February 25, 2012 8:42 PM GMT
Looks like Mark Wahlberg may have let the cat out of the bag
Report duke5150 February 25, 2012 9:49 PM GMT
For what its worth, there are only 10 movies in Oscar history where both Best Actress and Best Supporting Actresses won for the same movie. I wouldn't pay any attention to Wahlberg, regardless. Streep put in the better performance and Davis has a long career ahead of her. Very close call but Im going with Streep.
Report smellthecoffee February 25, 2012 10:52 PM GMT
Johnwark - History shows voting academy is fair; dont forget they are voting for their peers. Unlikely to vote Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress for a film with just 4 nominations. Streep is 'overdue'simply because she was close in 2006, 2008 and 2009.
Just my opinion - I've put my money where my mouth is by the way - but this may be Streeps year.
BTW, glad Eddie Murphy couldn't make it, Billy Crystal is the best and funniest Oscar host of all time. Enjoy the show...
Report smellthecoffee February 25, 2012 11:04 PM GMT
Wahlberg = Pinch of salt   Happy
Report johnwark February 26, 2012 9:11 AM GMT
I hope hes wrong about the Cinematography, fancy The Tree Of Life quite strong

Only big price I've backed is W.E. for Best Costume at 20/1, already beaten Hugo, The Artist and Jane Eyre in the Costume Designers Guild awards

They have 3 different categories but have had the winner the last 3 years
Report watermelon February 26, 2012 10:57 AM GMT
The main point is that a film as bad as The Iron Lady has never won a Best Actor or a Best Actress trophy for decades and decades.  Look up how The Iron Lady is rated.  Films that bad NEVER WIN major awards at the Oscars.  Just doesn't happen.
Report smellthecoffee February 26, 2012 11:51 AM GMT
Really? Dances with Wolves beat Goodfellas; Ordinary People beat Raging Bull; Shakespeare in Love beat Saving Private Ryan...The list is endless(almost). The Iron Lady is a supreme piece of mimicry but it is still up there with Viola Davis performance. Don't get me wrong, I will not be surprised to see Viola win, its just that the category is closer than you think. BTW, Johnwark, The Tree of Life is a unique film and will win Cinematography hands down (Mark Wahlberg is another Charlie Sheen...)
Report duke5150 February 26, 2012 4:12 PM GMT
Its not that the Iron Lady is bad (subjective anyway), it just doesnt have as much appeal as a film outside of the UK. The Independant and Guardian are going with Streep for what its worth.
Report watermelon February 26, 2012 5:15 PM GMT
It's not that subjective, you can get an idea of whether films are liked or hated via rating sites like imdb and rotten tomatoes.  Iron Lady is nearing Twilight with its crap rating on imdb and its "rotten" on rotten tomatoes.  A rotten film hasn't won an Oscar in any year that I can remember. Probably would have to go back to the 1970s or earlier. So while Meryl Streep does give a great performance, she has given a lot of great performances lately and never won an Oscar.  So uhhhhh why would she win an Oscar for a bad movie?  She'll win again when she makes a great movie.  Could happen next year with August Osage County. 

Meanwhile Viola Davis is not only in a beloved Best Picture film (one of the best imdb ratings of the year), she's in the highest-grossing Best Picture nominee of the year.  The Help = phenomenon in the States.  She has gravitas behind her with her film, in addition to the all-important SAG and BFCA trophies.  This is Viola's year!
Report smellthecoffee February 26, 2012 5:32 PM GMT
Watermelon. You may be right. In 10 hours we can put the gloves away...
Happy
Report comingupthehill February 26, 2012 7:03 PM GMT
2013 possible best films

the grey pants man - john majors career.

trading horse - story of a horse used in the early parts of east west trade.

the numpties - madcap mayhem with the puppetiers.

the plague/black death - story of a lady stuggling in a mans world.
Report judorick February 26, 2012 10:38 PM GMT
anyone got a link for live streaming ABC or whatever?
Report smellthecoffee February 26, 2012 11:21 PM GMT
Try this
http://www.livestream.com/theoscars
Report Checkmate February 26, 2012 11:33 PM GMT
Anyone else think Hugo for Best Picture at 55s seem decent value? Might be sympathy factor if everyone is voting against him for best Director. Might split BD and BP betweeb Hugo and The Artist. Unlikely? Definitely. 55s? No.
Report judorick February 26, 2012 11:34 PM GMT
cheers that one is the red carpet


anyone got a link for the awards ceremony?
Report Hove_Park_Upper_School February 26, 2012 11:42 PM GMT
Does anyone know the running order yet?

Every year there's a scramble to try and find this on this forum!
Report debsam February 26, 2012 11:45 PM GMT
its live on tv on 'sky living' 'channel 109' virgin  if thats any help
Report Tamparon February 26, 2012 11:53 PM GMT
Here's the running order I found; don't know if it's official though:

All times are PST:

5:30pm: Show starts, Billy Crystal’s opening number.
5:40: 1st award – Cinematography.
5:43: Art Direction.
5:52: Costume Design.
5:54: Makeup.
6:03: Foreign Language Film.
6:07: Supporting Actress.
6:20: Editing.
6:23: Sound Editing
6:26: Sound Mixing.
6:33: Cirque du Soleil
6:37: Documentary Feature.
6:41: Animated Feature.
6:49: Visual Effects.
6:53: Supporting Actor.
7:04: Score.
7:08: Song (expect a possible Muppet surprise here).
7:17: Adapted Screenplay.
7:20: Original Screenplay.
7:31: Live Action Short.
7:34: Documentary Short.
7:37: Animated Short.
7:44: Direction.
7:58: In Memoriam.
8:07: Best Actor.
8:15: Best Actress.
8:27: Best Picture.

Presenters:
Christian Bale
Colin Firth
Melissa Leo
Natalie Portman
Meryl Streep
Will Ferrell
Zach Galifianakis
Michael Douglas
Tina Fey
Chris Rock
Bradley Cooper
Emma Stone
Penelope Cruz
Angelina Jolie
Milla Jovovich
Cameron Diaz
Halle Berry
Tom Cruise
Tom Hanks
Jennifer Lopez
The Bridesmaids cast
Report ColeWorldNoBlanket February 27, 2012 12:05 AM GMT
£10 on Hell and Back Again, thoughts?
Report Tamparon February 27, 2012 12:10 AM GMT
What category?
Report ColeWorldNoBlanket February 27, 2012 12:13 AM GMT
Documentary feature, seems the most open category
Report johnwark February 27, 2012 12:21 AM GMT
Right sort of subject matter for the septics, not got a very high rating on IMDB though
Report Tamparon February 27, 2012 12:23 AM GMT
Indeed, three very close ones. I'm not really savvy on Oscar-betting, just like to watch it so I'm making a few funbets here. Does a 9.2 odds really win at the Oscars? Or is it always going for the favorites?
Report viva el presidente! February 27, 2012 12:46 AM GMT
anyone going down the tried and tested "lay the favourite for best foreign film" route, btw?
Report viva el presidente! February 27, 2012 12:48 AM GMT
tamparon - oscars is favourites city more or less every year. except the "best foreign..." which has different voting rules and can be a bit of a lottery.
Report johnwark February 27, 2012 12:55 AM GMT
foreign film is about the only thing i haven't bet on. Do Iranian films push the right buttons for the academy, not playing at 1/4 to find out
Report Tamparon February 27, 2012 12:56 AM GMT
Thank you, Viva El Presidente, but if the foreign film is such a lottery, why am I looking at a 1.23 favorite here? In the case of a lottery the money should be spread more open or am I missing something?
Report Tamparon February 27, 2012 1:03 AM GMT
Btw, I'm from Belgium, and in the rare case a Belgian film gets nominated - Bullhead - you tend to follow it. Now, for what it's worth, the director and leading actor of this movie said in the press overhere that the Iranian film would win it. I guess these guys are a little more in the know than we are, no? Fook it, I'm putting a bet on the favorite :-)
Report viva el presidente! February 27, 2012 1:03 AM GMT
it's just traditionally the one where favourites go down most often.

you have to have actually seen the films to vote, unlike all the other categories.
Report judorick February 27, 2012 1:04 AM GMT
still looking for a link to watch the awards ceremony

anyone?
Report johnwark February 27, 2012 1:05 AM GMT
just layed the 1/4 . Oscars 1.01
Report viva el presidente! February 27, 2012 1:09 AM GMT
it'll probably win. but I wouldn't back it at 1.2. seen too many go t!ts up over the years.
Report eguillemyn February 27, 2012 1:23 AM GMT
clooney is good value
Report eguillemyn February 27, 2012 1:24 AM GMT
http://www.sportlemon.tv/v-2/14/188/v-358937.html
Report razz February 27, 2012 1:26 AM GMT
i don't get award ceremonies, aren't films supposed to be subjective? so how can you give an award for the best one Mischief
Report viva el presidente! February 27, 2012 1:27 AM GMT
yeah, lot of money been coming for the cloon. someone stuck a K up at 3.25, which is a bit of a statement.
Report anton_chigurh February 27, 2012 1:35 AM GMT

Feb 26, 2012 -- 7:26PM, razz wrote:


i don't get award ceremonies, aren't films supposed to be subjective? so how can you give an award for the best one


Of course they're not subjective. It can be one's opinion that "American Pie 4" is better than "The Godfather" but one's opinion would be complete bullshit.

Report high_lander February 27, 2012 1:37 AM GMT
http://www.ilive.to/view/25838/
Report johnwark February 27, 2012 1:44 AM GMT
bad start, first fav down
Report viva el presidente! February 27, 2012 1:45 AM GMT
cinematography- hugo
Report viva el presidente! February 27, 2012 1:46 AM GMT
art direction - hugo
Report anton_chigurh February 27, 2012 1:49 AM GMT
Hugo looks value now in the visual effects category
Report johnwark February 27, 2012 1:50 AM GMT
mark wahlburgh called the cinematography then
Report ColeWorldNoBlanket February 27, 2012 1:53 AM GMT
Tempted to back Hugo then, last two to win cinematography have won visuals..
Report anton_chigurh February 27, 2012 1:54 AM GMT
just looked and there's no depth at all
Report viva el presidente! February 27, 2012 1:54 AM GMT
any more? not got it here, radio a bit sketchy.
Report viva el presidente! February 27, 2012 1:57 AM GMT
costume- artist
Report viva el presidente! February 27, 2012 1:58 AM GMT
make up - iron lady
Report smellthecoffee February 27, 2012 2:02 AM GMT
Didn't Wahlberg get one wrong?
Report attitude adjuster February 27, 2012 2:04 AM GMT
10k lay up on Davis Shocked
Report razz February 27, 2012 2:07 AM GMT

Feb 26, 2012 -- 7:35PM, anton_chigurh wrote:


Feb 27, 2012 --  1:26AM, razz wrote:i don't get award ceremonies, aren't films supposed to be subjective? so how can you give an award for the best oneOf course they're not subjective. It can be one's opinion that "American Pie 4" is better than "The Godfather" but one's opinion would be complete bullshit.


your saying art is not subjective? not sure if serious

Report anton_chigurh February 27, 2012 2:10 AM GMT
Christian Bale's accent again steals the show for best comedy moment. WTF is wrong with him....
Report judorick February 27, 2012 2:10 AM GMT
none of these links posted are working

shame
Report smellthecoffee February 27, 2012 2:14 AM GMT
Viola on the drift. Come on Meryl!
Surprised
Report ColeWorldNoBlanket February 27, 2012 2:15 AM GMT
Working fine http://www.sportlemon.tv/v-2/14/188/v-358937.html
Report judorick February 27, 2012 2:17 AM GMT
nice one cheers
Report xmoneyx February 27, 2012 2:17 AM GMT
the red carpet

its now a capitalist fashion show

IN YOUR FACE
Report David Fishwick Minibus Sales February 27, 2012 2:19 AM GMT
iranian film wins
Report smellthecoffee February 27, 2012 2:28 AM GMT
someone wants to back Meryl 3.7K @2/1
Happy
Report smellthecoffee February 27, 2012 2:31 AM GMT
...Now its gone?
Report judorick February 27, 2012 2:43 AM GMT
by the way was tipped chris plummer from so called insider

worth a punt
Report Illmatic February 27, 2012 2:44 AM GMT
Senna should have been nominated for best documentary
Report curious-cat February 27, 2012 2:57 AM GMT
Hugo gets visual effects.
Report ColeWorldNoBlanket February 27, 2012 2:58 AM GMT
Had 20 on Hugo :D
Report judorick February 27, 2012 3:02 AM GMT
plummer was nailed on
Report johnwark February 27, 2012 3:28 AM GMT
can we have a famine appeal for Angelina Jolie
Report sammybizzle February 27, 2012 3:34 AM GMT
Anyone  notice Mark Wahlberg was RIGHT about Hugo?
Report smellthecoffee February 27, 2012 3:49 AM GMT
...but wrong about costume design.
Report judorick February 27, 2012 3:55 AM GMT
right about plummer too
Report johnwark February 27, 2012 4:23 AM GMT
can't believe people still putting up money against The Artist for best pic, ive had as much as i can
Report judorick February 27, 2012 4:30 AM GMT
fecking maggie thatcher
Report smellthecoffee February 27, 2012 4:30 AM GMT
Good on ya Meryl...
Thank you and Goodnight
Cool
Report curious-cat February 27, 2012 4:31 AM GMT
well done Chappers !
Report judorick February 27, 2012 4:36 AM GMT
facking evil witch
Report Layton_Knewit February 27, 2012 4:57 AM GMT
Couldn't be happier for Maryl Streep, but in hindsight I should've put more than a cheeky tenner on the Goddess of actresses Cry
Report Monstrous Bryan February 27, 2012 6:40 AM GMT
Many thanks Marky Mark
Report ahorsewithnoname February 27, 2012 9:34 AM GMT
smellthecoffee 1, watermelon 0.

smellthecoffee - congratulations on your win, and can you remember what the prices were when the market suspended please?
Report smellthecoffee February 27, 2012 12:30 PM GMT
Horse,
I think Streep was about 3. I did notice some big lays popping up on Davis. Like I said it was a close call and the betting should have had Streep a shade odds on...but I'm not complaining.
Wink
Report Cider February 27, 2012 7:32 PM GMT
Nice result Streep. I took the value 11-10 Crazy
Report ahorsewithnoname February 28, 2012 7:55 AM GMT
Cheers smellthecoffee. When I looked around midnight, Streep had drifted to 3.3

Cider - me too Sad
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