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the stunning
18 Apr 19 13:27
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Date Joined: 21 Oct 09
| Topic/replies: 2,751 | Blogger: the stunning's blog
Williams (4/11) v Gould (11/5)
Gilbert (1/1) v Perry (4/5)
Hawkins (3/10) v Hang (5/2)
K Wilson (1/4) v Donaldson (3/1)
Higgins (2/7) v Davis (11/4)
Bingham (1/3) v Dott (12/5)
Murphy (1/3) v Honghao (12/5)
Robertson (1/14) v Georgiou (8/1)

Selby (1/5) v Xintong (7/2)
Brecel  (1/2 v G Wilson (6/4)
Lisowski (4/5) v Carter (1/1)
Allen (2/9) v Yuelong (10/3)
Trump (1/8) v Un Nooh (5/1)
Ding (1/3) v McGill (12/5)
Maguire (4/9) v Pengfei (7/4)
Ronnie (1/80) v Cahill (22/1)

If I had one bet on these first round games it would have to be Xintong against a woefully out of form Selby.This kid can rattle off frames in no time and if he gets an early lead will be hard to stop.
Also over in the ton market in the Judd v Un Nooh game,can see at least 4,that game will be a cracker.
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Report wondersobright April 18, 2019 1:36 PM BST
can see 2 absolute fkin standout bets & 2 others potentially worth a peanut
Report the stunning April 18, 2019 1:48 PM BST
Ronnie 15/8
Robertson 9/2
Trump 11/2
Selby 9/1
K Wilson 16/1
Higgins 18/1
Bingham,Allen,Williams 20/1
Hawkins 22/1
Ding 33/1
Murphy 50/1
Lisowski 66/1
Perry 80/1
Carter,Brecel 100/1
Maguire 125/1
Gould,Gilbert,Xintong 150/1
Yuelong,Dott 250/1
Un Nooh 300/1
McGill,Hang,400/1
Donaldson,G Wilson,Pengfei,Honghao 500/1
Georgiou 750/1
Cahill 1000/1

Looking at the draw my best bet on the outright market is Kyren Wilson.Top half of the draw is far kinder.Should get through his first round game then likely to play Hawkins,Williams,Robertson...then beat Allen in the finalTongue Out.....will search for bigger than 16s.

Good luck all with your bets and enjoy the best 17 days of the year!
Report davyb April 18, 2019 2:50 PM BST
As much as I love watching Lisowski play I think this is a horrible draw for him, I think evens for carter is a must bet as hes got a better all round game along with much more crucible experience behind him.

I also think evens for perry is very fair price.

Mark Davis to do Higgins at 5/2 and Donaldson to see of the in my opinion very over rated Wilson at 7/2 will give you a very good run for the double.
Report gjohn101 April 18, 2019 4:49 PM BST
Trump and Allen are well short for a start. Allen probably worth a lay even if his head isnt in too bad a place going into next week.

Think Perry will beat Gilbert, only dropped 5 frames in qualifying which was a decent showing even if his opponents werent great or underperformed. Having a few shekels on him outright too in keeping with my plan of sticking with the oldies!
Report gobelins April 18, 2019 7:36 PM BST
The D.Gilbert v J.Perry and the J.Lisowski v A.Carter matches are the 2 tighest matches, betting wise, and they are fascinating from a psychological point of view. Gilbert and Lisowski are in far better form, and have been rising up the rankings, but most of this is based on the shorter format matches. Whereas, Perry and Carter have proven form on the game's biggest stage.
There's also a higher level of expectaion on Gilbert and Lisowski given that they are seeded for the first time, and as a result it's possible that they will feel the additional pressure of having to prove themselves worthy of their elevated status, particularly against opponents who have for so long occupied top 16 places. And, as with all the qualifiers, Perry and Carter come here on the back of 3 wins, albeit against much weaker opposition.
Current form against Crucible form, the annual clash of the two is perfectly represented in these 2 fascinating contests.
Report jackkat April 18, 2019 7:42 PM BST
Last year I'm sure it was profitable to back the qualifiers in the first round they are sharp and have just gone through 3 high intensity matches to reach round 1 the stand outs was Perry beating Selby and Jones beating Murphy and Milkins beat Robertson I'm going to lay all the seeds in round 1 will see how it goes gl all enjoy the 17 days its going to be MEGA
Report Latalomne April 18, 2019 8:24 PM BST
Been out all day, so only just seen this....  Not run the numbers, but off the top of my head I could be interested in Gould at 11/5, Donaldson at 3/1 (with a massive lay back at 1.1), Davis at 11/4, Luo at 12/5, Zhao at 7/2 (such a streaky player he could be home and hosed before Selby's even warmed into the tournament), possibly even McGill and Tian, and I might even throw a couple of quid at Thepchaya, were I not on him outright at 500/1. 

In short, I think there's loads of value in the rags, on known recent form, anyway - of course, some of the bigger names might have got their sh1t together in the last month or so.
Report Latalomne April 18, 2019 9:46 PM BST
Having delved deeper, I like, at the current prices (I see the market has already moved a lot on some):

Gould, Brecel, Tian Pengfei, Dark Mavis, Zhao Xintong (though the H2H is a concern).  Robbo looks a rock solid money buying play for those into that. 

In contrast to what I said earlier, I wouldn't be with Donaldson or McGill (if anything, Ding is closer to a play at 2/5), and there's not as much juice as there was in the Luo Honghao price.  Judd v Un-Nooh price looks about right, I think.
Report the stunning April 29, 2019 11:00 PM BST
Gilbert (11/5) v K Wilson (4/9)
Robertson (8/15) v Higgins (6/4)
G Wilson (7/4) v Carter (4/9)
Trump (1/5) v Maguire (7/2)


Trump 7/4
Robertson 7/4
K Wilson 11/2
Higgins 13/2
Carter 14/1
G Wilson 33/1
Maguire 33/1
Gilbert 33/1
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