Sentenza

Today I am going for a place lay of Dunseverick in the 4pm Southwell. It has been running over further and the draw isn't favourable.Also there are quite a few CD/C/D winners who on the face of it should run well.

Currently at 4/4.3 but I'm trying to get matched at 3.8 for a liability of 5.60

After noting that Rigandin De Beauchene was 4.4/6 overnight I was expecting it to drift out to 6's or further.

At around 5 mins before the start of the race I put up a Place Lay @4.8.It was quickly taken and the odds shortened somewhat but then drifted out again.

In the race Jezza proved to be a wet lettuce but there were others I felt capable of beating my selection.The trainer was 1/36 or thereabouts before the race(2.78% strike rate) and thankfully she didn't add to her winners at my expense.

Selection was posted on the forum before the race.

Starting Bank 50.06

Current Bank 45.98

win/loss 1/1

profit/Loss -4.08

Nothing today.

Well what a mess the first selection turned out to be.

I placed a bid up @3.7 the night before and it got matched at some point.When I checked the market at 2pm North Stack's odds had dropped to 2.08 so obviously it was fancied to run well or put in an improved performance.

In the postmortem a few factors became apparent.

Firstly it was having it's 1st run for a new yard which can be a factor for improvement despite the trainer K C Bailey being out of form .

Secondly the move in the market for the horse which implies that factors outside of the bare form are in play.Since we are trying to deal in known factors this is one trap we should try to avoid but the bet had been placed the night before.

Overall the profile of the race was good but the horses expected to run well at the front of the market didn't perform.

Starting Bank 50.06

Bank now at 44.08

Win/Loss 0/1

Profit/Loss -5.98