Rugby
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
11/2 to win the GF with 1/3 the odds EW, giving 11/6 to reach the final.
To reach the final, they have to beat Castleford and then choose their opponents - worst case home v Warrington? Should they somehow lose to Castleford, they would still have a lesser chance to continue.
11/2 EW is an absolute gift for the Saints with home advantage and the opportunity to lay back at the final, isn't it?
I have already had a large EW bet, but am considering a seriously large one. Am I missing something?
Thanks
To reach the final, they have to beat Castleford and then choose their opponents - worst case home v Warrington? Should they somehow lose to Castleford, they would still have a lesser chance to continue.
11/2 EW is an absolute gift for the Saints with home advantage and the opportunity to lay back at the final, isn't it?
I have already had a large EW bet, but am considering a seriously large one. Am I missing something?
Thanks
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 158
|
By:
Can't see it personally. Ok they won the league but they have no momentum and there are 3 teams who are better than them in my opinion. Recently they scraped home against leeds, who had 12 men for most of the game, then got hammered at home to wire and then lost to Huddersfield.
Best case scenario they beat Cas (who is no gimme) followed by playing wire/leeds followed by Wigan/leeds/wire in the final. Just don't see them having enough. Think they will be eliminated as soon as they face one of them 3 let alone win two games against them. Leeds are the bet I reckon. |
|
By:
Having seen Cas fold in France, I do think that first match is a gimme or at least a 1/4 shot to qualify. I then would expect them to be odds on to get past Warrington, although there is a possibility (about 30%) that they get lucky and play Catalan or Widnes. They would then be maybe 6/4 in the final, but by that time I've already collected on the 11/6 side of the bet to reach the final.
|
|
By:
If Wire do get to meet saints i would back Warrington allday long.I know the league table doesn't lie but i cant help feeling saints have not much left in the tank yet Leeds Wigan and to an extent Warrington seem to have the knack of upping the ante when they need it.As the silent assassin says beating Cas is no gimme but should make for a decent game for the neutrals.If you're looking for a so called gimme i would look no further than Leeds -8 on Saturday
 Good luck |
|
By:
Saints price to me is the only one that looks value given worst case scenarios ie all the best teams qualify in every round. It therefore is logical that an ew bet becomes good value too given Saints are most likely to be their biggest match price in the final itself. Good shout from the OP imo.
|
|
By:
There is a method in the OP's madness, but, in all honesty, they look to be running on empty. Luke Walsh is a massive loss and stop Roby, the only other alibre player they have have, and Saints are nothing. Firmly hammered by Warrington and then unlucky against Huddersfield, but, if Brough would have played, then in reality, Saints would again have been hammered.
As for the others, at least reaching the final, Catalans will be out this weekend, Widnes will not be winning the next 2 at best, Warrington are picking up too many injuries and Grinner still has a knack of starting Richie " missing in action" Myler, whilst Cas look to be bottling it now. Did their best to throw away the Wakey game and just never showed in France last week. Of the 4 teams above, it's Cas that deserve to at least reach the final, judging in their performances this season. Which leaves 4. Saints have gone despite whatever the result against Cas will be, the wont win the next 1. Huddersfield will put up a decent showing, but still don't have enough play off experience to win the comp. Wigan are the likeliest winners as their price indicates, which leaves perennial fast finishers Leeds, who know exactly how to play play off rugby, and at 4,5/1 are,IMO, the value. |
|
By:
Leeds price on 4 game acca will easily top 5/1 unless a couple of big boys get knocked out before final
|
|
By:
Huddersfield were a lesser price last year despite looking a much weaker team.
That said, it's hard to argue with the price objectively; can't see them getting to the GF at all. But considering the likely market prices in each game... |
|
By:
Thanks for the interesting replies. You're all correct in that they don't look the best side, but they are still the best value. I am expecting a good win tonight and then hoping that a week off will invigorate. I can't do anything about outcomes, but I can choose to make sure my bets represent value and I have backed them EW to win about 12k with the firms that are no longer 11/2.
Similarly, I have the Bulldogs at 9/1, but only for a small amount as no EW betting at that price. |
|
By:
your having a giggle!!!id make saints marginal favorites to beat cas and outsiders to beat wire,with no chance of beating wigan in the final.11-2 hehehe nahhhh
|
|
By:
Well done Web - you have yourself a nice upside now with Leeds getting knocked out.
|
|
By:
Thanks. That went as well as I could have hoped for. We'll see who they play in the semis, hopefully Castleford again !! but I would expect them to be 4/7 or so for that game and to win it. My only disappointment is that I couldn't get them with the Bulldogs in an EW double at the 9/1 and 11/2. That would have been quite a bet.
|
|
By:
You're all correct
No they aren't - they were all (very) wrong! You're the only one that was correct on this thread! |
|
By:
so far!
|
|
By:
 I noticed that as well, a succession of disastrous tips at prices below true probabilities. Still, I have won nothing so far. FWIW, I think the US in the Golf are a tremendous price and have backed them accordingly. Should be nearer 6/5 IMO. |
|
By:
what price will they start v catalans?
|
|
By:
4/11 with Bills
|
|
By:
Surely a formality for Saints tonight?
Dragons have done really well to get this far, but half their squad looked like they had been run over by a bus last week. The short week has to be a massive negative for them. Saints won the league fixture by 18, so a handicap of -10 looks like a bit of a one-way bet. |
|
By:
yeh I agree blackwater, catalans must be knackered, can see saints covering the handicap comfortably
|
|
By:
The market believes so, that's for sure. Prob a game to far for Cats but they may become backable shortly. Saints definitely needed the week off I feel as they were getting beaten up every week towards the end of the season.
|
|
By:
saints minus 9.5 here boys or ht /ft saints
|
|
By:
Just HT saints is far better
|
|
By:
I wouldnt be so sure, Saints are not very good.
|
|
By:
Catalans pre match odds were utterly absurd. Saints are easily 1.4+ here.
|
|
By:
I made a seperate thread, we just going to use this one?
|
|
By:
Sky p*ss me off how they show the RL. They have 2 camera angles zooming in to close then out so you can see the whole pitch when someone is driving the ball in. In out in out, just utter b*llocks. What happened to having one main camera on the action without all this zooming.......NRL has one normal camera, yet SKY have this zoom in and out nonsense. I was told the director used to be a ref, so it looks like he wants to view the game as a ref, which the viewers dont want.
Rant over. |
|
By:
saints taking 2 jesus christ
|
|
By:
shows they have no confidence
|
|
By:
missed lmao
|
|
By:
Saints looking average and crowd very quiet. I hope Saints win as im taking 4 union boys up and it will be half empty if Cats win!
|
|
By:
cats gassed already
|
|
By:
cheating ref
|
|
By:
shouldve been scrum cats
|
|
By:
How the hell wasn't he out?
|
|
By:
what a shocking kick from roby
|
|
By:
this needs to be a try for cats, wont get many better chances
|
|
By:
That should of been a Try!
|
|
By:
officiating is poor
|
|
By:
perhaps the referees should be professional
|
|
By:
relax saints fans rl cant afford cats in final old trafford would be half empty!!!!
|