England v New Zealand

I think it's the people denied to Lancaster which seems to be moving the market. I'd still be a layer at those odds though even though I expect New Zealand to win.

I guess the perception is that New Zealand weren't there as a team for that game and that the best that France could be still wasn't enough. I agree though. Anything less than about 1.3 is straying into dangerous territory.

Lumpy at 1.11 was back again this morning. Funnily enough the bookie in Australia is still offering 1.18 on NZ...

For England to win I think we need to do a number on New Zealand in the forwards and particularly at the break down. Last year I think the tries might have come through the backs but after the hard work was done in the forwards. Corbisiero will be missed but that may be slightly offset at the breakdown by the form of Lawes and Lanchbury supplementing the back three.

For sure we'll miss Tuilagi anchoring the midfield but on balance I'd expect this team to win around 1 in 4 rather than 1 in 10.

I'd love to agree that England could win 1 in 4 of these games, but I don't at all. History suggests that England 1 in 5 games since a draw in 1997 and that includes a period where England were genuinely the best team in the world and NZ went through an iffy patch. Right now NZ are without a shadow of doubt the best team around, maybe one of the best teams they've had for some time, and England are an improving lot after an era of rubbish, but are still a long way short of 2002 levels, particularly as they have some important players missing.

I wish 1.11 layers all the luck in the world, but I don't think I'll be bothering to lay it. 1 in 9 sounds about right to me. Wish I could have got some of this 1.2 or 1.25 though, I was asleep it seems.

There's no doubt the price is crazy and weight of money affected. (Almost £500,000 for an international?)

Yes, New Zealand are clear favourites, but the price is unjustifiable. (By way of disclosure, I have a comparatively gigantic NZ red from laying at much higher odds, and backing the draw at much lower odds, but am currently refusing to even consider trading out.)

And whilst the bookmakers' prices are coming down, only SKY Bet has a lower price!

Have to think that the patriotic element will drive the price to the mid 1.1s at some point pre match.

NZ were 1.14 v France? I don't get how they are shorter here, or shorter than England were against Argentina. (Or is my view prejudiced by my book!)

I'm not that surprised by this price. No doubt I will lay it, but I very much doubt I will collect.  I can see NZ battering England this week after last year's loss.

Yeah 1 in 4 does not make sense, but nor does 1 in 11 as it stands now. NZ are not invincible esp when playing in Europe. I remember a game v Wales was it in 2009 or 2010 when I was worried sick with a big red on Wales. Yes NZ did win but it was not comfortable at all. But I do not know enough about England this time around to give an accurate prediction. And I do know secretly the All Blacks are out for revenge. But if that is the motivator, yes they could slay England. Conversely it could play into Englands hands too if they can absorb the onslaught early :)

tyco

I'm assuming your question was genuine but the norovirus was widely known about and if anything the amount it was cited took some of the lustre off England's win. I think the perception is growing that New Zealand were a little too forthcoming with that information. I remember a few years ago Manny Steward let slip that Hearns broke his hand early in Hagler fight in 85. At the time the team had wanted to put the information out there but Hearns point blank refused to allow it because he didn't want to take anything away from Hagler. Even in defeat he showed what a champion is. Little wonder that of all the fighters Steward trained Hearns is the one he said was the toughest.

Hi Eeternaloptimist,
Yes my questions was genuine. What I meant was that if the AB's were sick, you can take that win by England off the stats sheet and make a case for the AB's being shorter than 3 in 4. I just do not know how much it affected them then but I do know that we learnt about it post game. Used as an excuse? Do not think so, it just came out as things do leak out over time. Managed to lay some at 1.10 and now my next lay is in wait at 1.09. Wondering if that will get hit.

I'm an avid short priced layer tyco, simple at that.  I don't always lay these prices pre-off but will be involved in say 95% of all games at some stage.  My gut feel though is I lose more opposing NZ than any other team.  They are a bugger to bet against in match odds terms.  So far in this one I am just backing the draw.

I can't remember which papers carried the news last year but it was reported prior to the match and as such you have to take into account that fact. What's good about this New Zealand team is that they keep prevailing in the close ones even though you think they are second best in many areas. That's one of the marks of a great team for me. The same may well be the case on Saturday but that isn't the mark of a team which should be 1.11 for me. France could well have taken the draw at the end of the game last week and you don't need many of those to get seriously burned fingers.

What I meant was that if the AB's were sick, you can take that win by England off the stats sheet

Yes lets do that - it is the All Blacks after all, in fact lets just say they won it as they def would have done had they not trotted out the old illness excuse. So a world record 34 on the trot it is win or lose tomorrow then!

Craig Joubert reffing

Cheers TheVis.
@spyker, I didnt mean to talk the AB's up or anything and dont want to take away from Englands achievement one bit. They won fair and square. But if NZ were sick, for betting  purposes and odds fixing etc it really does need to be taken into account. Well it does for me. I am not going to ignore something like that and lose money because of it.

Yeah, tyco i know but I would say the times that England have beaten NZ over here have coincided with the times NZ think they have already won the match before leaving NZ which was very much the case last time. They may have been ill but personally i wouldn't build that into my betting! NZ should win by at least 20 points if Eng let them play as well as they can and there is a little of the 'we've already won' from NZ but not as much as last time. It goes without saying (but I'll say it anyway!) the first 20 is vital and if Eng can hold on to NZ tails for that then we have a game on.

Yeah and the Eng backs are a bit of a patch up job atm - lets hope the match is entertaining, which will be down to how Eng play as if NZ are out of sight early then it could be a bit dull watching NZ have a training session!

Eng beating NZ is a once a decade thing, so we've already blown it for a while

Their backline absolutely p*sses all over ours imo.  Tomkins and 36 in particular could be easily out classed.  Prop wise we look weak on the bench.  Parling and Morgan won't be letting anybody down but then you look at the dodgepot Flood and concerns creep in again for later in the game.