Rugby
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08 Dec 12
11:37
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Date Joined:
08 Sep 07
I know there are some knowledgeable rugby punters on here and I was just wondering which games have the most potential for tries today. The weather is ok today and one or two games could go bigs now we are the stage where one or two teams have switched off and are playing teams on the search for bonus points. The shirts today set by the spread boys seem fair and am on the look out where some big numbers could go over the white line. Call me a mug punter but I have not got the nerve to sell shirts but do look for the games which could go big. Think Toulon could rack up a few today am surprised at the spreadex quote of 39-43. Indeed there is a 2 point arb but surely this 43 will have increased by kick off. Metro at home to Edinburgh went ballistic last year and this yr could be the same as Metro ideally could do with a bonus point win against Edinburgh who are only playing to get in the Amlin. How much do they care ? Potential for open game although Metro have only just come off a 5 game losing run but they did beat their big city neighbours and maybe are coming into some form? Anyway what do Iknow but just some food for thought. Always appreciate feedback from the most savvy sporting punters about.
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Points betting has been a nightmare for me on this comp so far, but I think you may have picked the two that make the most sense. Sale can not compete up-front, but they do have some handy backs who can play a bit, so the chances are that Toulon do all sorts of damage up front and reap the rewards. Whether they score through forwards or backs though is a lot harder to work out and with Armitage, Lobbe and Masoe in the back-row you could well find the total going up in 6s or 7s. Sale simply have no choice but to go wide and hope for the best and Toulon did get caught out against the Blues earlier on.
As for the Metro game, it's a real guessing game but I suppose a daft open and entirely mad game is more likely than not with these two on the pitch. Edinburgh have been nilled twice, but have improved in the Pro12 and Metro's defence is hardly one that suggests keeping scores down, while Metro appear unable to play any sort of structure despite big names everywhere. That game is bound sure to give me a headache, but I think I would rather be on overs than unders. As ever, keep an eye on the pitches. What you do have in your favour is that the Sale pitch should be absolutely fine, the drainage is good and it's a decent surface. |
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Cheers Rugbyman. Always fascinating to get your comments. You are right that the Metro game is a bit of a guessing game. Will probably wait to see how it starts off. Within 10-15 mins invariably the shirts can drop quite quickly obviously as long as no early try. Harlequins game is another one that has had the spread boys in the dark. There was a 3 pont arb earlier which again highlights how the oddsmakers are not quite sure how the game will go. Could easily go ballistic but again these games are always worth watching to get a feel how the commitment is regarding the potential whipping boys. With regard to the Toulon game 39-43 with Spreadex I reckon is brave and slightly off the mark and am convinced this will get bought up prior to kick off. Will just pray that there is no surprise snowfall !
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What do they give you for a pen try? 8 points? Could well be on the cards at Salford.
As RM says definitely want to get a look at that pitch in Paris as it is one of the worst going when it is a proper winter surface. However I have not seen a game on there recently and it may well not have turned yet. Similar thoughts would also apply to wanting to know what that Italian pitch is like. |
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Can't argue with any of the logic here. Toulon appear to have such a power advantage that you'd expect them at some point to have built a lead and start targetting tries as opposed to penalties. As RM says, Sale's only hope here is to go wide - they were obliterated by Northampton at the scrum last weekend, who in turn were hammered by Ulster last night. Sheridan and Hayman rank as two of the best scrummaging props of the last 10 years. I'd probably be leaning towards shirt supremacy here as I think it could be one way traffic, but I suppose the extra risk there is that you throw an intercept pass or let a sub in for a soft one at the end.
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Yes 8 for a penalty try. Point taken re the pitches and to be honest I did not know that the Paris pitch can cut up easily. There was a lot of rain in Paris yesterday so I am told. Have you any idea about the referees in these games as there are some who are notorious for killing games with their pedantic nature?
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Yes, 8 pts for a penalty try Vis.
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Rolland for the Toulouse game. No Comment........
Hodges for Sale, but I really don't know enough about him. |
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Thanks for all the feedback. I think the spreadex trader must have had the Christmas party last night. To be honest I thought the shirts for the Toulon game would be in the 50s and to start at 39-43 was interesting to say the least. Upto 42-46 which is I still believe very buyable. Interesting that the Unsporting team were happy to leave a 2 point arb up most of the morning. Boring conjecture for those not into the spreads but interesting to see some major differences of opinion from the big 2. Probably be a 9-6 shocker! Agree with the supremacy comment but again am too much of a mug/coward to cope with the trauma of a loose pass scuppering my investment!
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Pitch in Toulouse looks ok. Not brilliant, but it's hardly likely to be at this time of year.
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did u play the arb billy or did u just buy them?
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Billy Fountain,
I believe the Spreadex Christmas Party was the following night, after the shirts made up 11!! |
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I think the shirts were 43 Bid at kick off so he was right in what he was saying, t0sser.
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I'm confused.
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Rainer,
What you mean so Spreadex managed to get people to buy at 43-47 instead of 43? They must've been well gutted!! :( |
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Why find a thread 3 months old to have a pop? Surely there are some more recent discussions that didn't produce a winner for you to inject your wit upon.
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if it helps, I think most days are treated as a Christmas party by this particular spreadex trader
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BF called that the spread would increase by kick off. The market dictates the price and you won't be long making it pay in this game if you can call market moves.
Anyway, it must have been a frugal party given the regularity with which said firm restricts me to a 10 stake on rugby markets. |
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been looking AT the performance indices for last 8
clermont midpoint around 35.5 and on my calculations thats about 3.65 decimal odds, currently trading at 2.66 approx !!!! make of that what you will. saracens look correctly priced at 7.0 and would be my choice. |
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ah!
forgot to take count of the fact they have already got 10pts all already!!!! so ignore the above ..... recalc puts claremont on 2.75 toulon 4.7 saracens 6.5 quins9.2 leic 17.5 ulster 20.5 munster 24.5 monpelier 50.0 |