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Domino oh oh
Pause • Switch to Standard View Paraguay’s president Santiago Peña...
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Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- • November 5, 2026 5:05 PM GMT
Peña, an ally of US President Donald Trump, is stepping down after the opposition called ‌an extraordinary session to ⁠begin the process of filing an impeachment motion in Congress, and as protesters demanded his resignation.

Earlier on ⁠Thursday Peña lost backing from members of his own conservative party. Vice President Pedro Alliana is set to take office as his replacement.

Lawmakers had accused Peña of ​conflicts of ​interest, misuse of pension funds ​and institutional cover-ups linked to ‌the collapse of ueno, which had grown quickly from a niche fintech player into a mid-tier bank administering close to $850 million in public funds.
Report Escapee • November 5, 2026 6:23 PM GMT
I generally thought this market would resolve to "NO", But there's tiny chance they might throw him under a bus if and replace him in the hopes of saving the GOP from at least 8 years in the wildness from 2028.

Will USA follow paraguay's lead?



USA - Politics Specials -- Will Trump be impeached before 2028 Election?        
2 Runners            £78,281 Matched   



              108.3%   91.8%             
Yes (To Be Impeached)    1.44 1.48 1.5   1.71   1.78   1.79   £41,236
        £5 £100 £3     £10 £26 £10  
No (Not To Be Impeached)    2.26 2.28 2.4   3   3.1   3.3   £37,045
        £8 £20 £7     £2 £48 £2  
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- • November 5, 2026 6:26 PM GMT
I think they will have it high on their list of things to do with their majorities in both houses.

Could be a few resignations before Jan 3
Report Escapee • November 5, 2026 6:31 PM GMT
Yeah, but they need 67 votes in the senate to impeach.

I dunno the numbers they got in the mid terms, but unlikely to be 67, so they will need GOP votes.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- • November 5, 2026 6:45 PM GMT
Yeah they can impeach him, but need 2/3 to pass the motion to set punishment.

The bringing him to count is an impeachment

He's been impeached twice before,
Report timbuctooth • November 5, 2026 6:50 PM GMT
There's two forms of impeachment; the one they used to impeach him twice last time, which comes from the House, needing a simple majority, and it's no more than a sign of House disapproval. The Senate inpeachment needs 67 votes, leading to the removal of POTUS. The market's rules say;

If the House of Representatives pass at least one article of impeachment then the President is deemed impeached.
The outcome of any subsequent Senate trial will have no bearing on settlement

Seems a nailed-on 'Yes'
Report lapsy pa • November 5, 2026 6:53 PM GMT
As things stand (54 dems) they would need 13 reps to 'flip' to impeach, i'm not sure it is that nailed on but think it is more likely than not.
Report lapsy pa • November 5, 2026 6:55 PM GMT
Yes, Tim, the first one is looking good. The Senate one not so much
Report timbuctooth • November 5, 2026 6:57 PM GMT
They don't need any Senate Reps to vote 'yes', as the House alone can impeach him
Report lapsy pa • November 5, 2026 7:01 PM GMT
Okay,no doubt you are right Tim. He can only be convicted though with the 67 which is what many hope.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- • November 5, 2026 7:23 PM GMT
Impeachment is the act of bringing him to trial.

Getting a majority to find him guilty after the
impeachment trial is another stage.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- • November 5, 2026 7:36 PM GMT
• Committees (such as the House Judiciary Committee) investigate allegations, hold hearings, and draft "articles of impeachment". This phase can take anywhere from a few weeks to over a year depending on the complexity of the evidence.

• House Vote: Once articles are drafted, the full House of Representatives debates and votes. Passing at least one article requires a simple majority (more than 50%), at which point the president is officially "impeached".
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- • November 6, 2026 10:02 PM GMT
After a unanimous 44-0 vote in the Senate, Santiago Peña is no longer president of Paraguay.

His vice president Pedro Alliana will be sworn in to replace him.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- • November 6, 2026 11:54 PM GMT
Santiago Peña is already in custody and will be heading to TACUMBÚ in the next few hours
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