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16.5 - way higher than the Greens who poll 3x4 higher. That's a 6% chance they walk into No.10.
For restore to win the reform and conservative vote would have to collapse....as would Labour and even beating the greens or LD's requires a significant improvement. Doesn't seem credible.
I thought it might just be irrational right-wing boosters...but then if that were a major factor you'd expect to see reform at a lower price than they are also.
Musk's money will help them...but this isn't the first time a rich guy bankrolled a tiny party. It generally doesn't work.
For restore to win the reform and conservative vote would have to collapse....as would Labour and even beating the greens or LD's requires a significant improvement. Doesn't seem credible.
I thought it might just be irrational right-wing boosters...but then if that were a major factor you'd expect to see reform at a lower price than they are also.
Musk's money will help them...but this isn't the first time a rich guy bankrolled a tiny party. It generally doesn't work.
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Simply buying advertising, and most have big red already.
From a rival exchange on twitter
Last-traded prices in our next General Election 'most seats' market:
Labour - 38%
Reform - 29%
Conservatives - 20%
Restore - 7%
Greens - 2%
Lib Dems - 2%
I'd love to see the carnage of trying to
price up 650 seats and restore mad punter deciding which ones he had to influence to
justify his 7% outright most seats.
Last-traded prices in our next General Election 'most seats' market:
Labour - 38%
Reform - 29%
Conservatives - 20%
Restore - 7%
Greens - 2%
Lib Dems - 2%
I'd love to see the carnage of trying to
price up 650 seats and restore mad punter deciding which ones he had to influence to
justify his 7% outright most seats.
That is a very good point. Restore, as REFUK, are a licence to print money.
Dutching back bets of Lab/Refuk/Cons for £100 total stake returns £15.85 profit.
Dutching back bets of all runners in the market for £100 total stake returns £5.68 guaranteed profit.
Dutching back bets of all runners in the market for £100 total stake returns £5.68 guaranteed profit.
| UK - Next General Election -- Most Seats |
| 9 Runners £3,503,431 Matched |
| 96.8% | 94.4% | |||||||
| Labour | 2.62 | 2.66 | 2.68 | 2.72 | 2.74 | 2.76 | £915,864 | |
| £60 | £7,366 | £101 | £32 | £6 | £53 | |||
| Reform UK | 3.45 | 3.5 | 3.55 | 3.65 | 3.7 | 3.75 | £1,713,533 | |
| £310 | £10 | £90 | £59 | £20 | £845 | |||
| Conservatives | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5 | 5.1 | £344,555 | |
| £182 | £53 | £40 | £11 | £59 | £52 | |||
| Restore Britain | 14.5 | 15 | 15.5 | 16 | 16.5 | 17 | £228,758 | |
| £19 | £512 | £25 | £77 | £320 | £5 | |||
| Green Party | 36 | 42 | 46 | 48 | 50 | 55 | £235,494 | |
| £473 | £3 | £121 | £11 | £7 | £17 | |||
| Liberal Democrats | 60 | 65 | 70 | 85 | 90 | 180 | £45,435 | |
| £58 | £259 | £326 | £428 | £2 | £1 | |||
| Your Party | 390 | 420 | 440 | 550 | 560 | 660 | £8,590 | |
| £2 | £2 | £1 | £1 | £35 | £5 | |||
| Workers Party of Britain | 900 | 910 | 970 | - | - | - | £2,381 | |
| £2 | £2 | £14 | ||||||
| Advance UK | 770 | 810 | 970 | 1000 | - | - | £8,820 | |
| £2 | £3 | £15 | £12 |
Unless another name emerges
Refuk have had a few names and easily changed as they are owned by one or two people.
Farrage could split off in any case forming
Nigels party and then you have to red up.
Refuk have had a few names and easily changed as they are owned by one or two people.
Farrage could split off in any case forming
Nigels party and then you have to red up.
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