Another by election...

It has been an honour and a privilege to represent Holborn and St Pancras for the last 11 years....

For someone who stated he'll never give up while he was PM, that twice in a matter of months.

You can tell if he's lying, his lips move.

The Green Party has opened the door for Zack Polanski to run in Holborn and St Pancras

“Zack has always made it clear he would like to become a London MP”

sir shameless, what a grade A weasel. the weakest individual to have ever infected public life in England (a highly competitive field)

What a coward he turned out to be.

Will Bin Head be running ?

He said: "I will now focus on other things and that will be international affairs including defence, security, trade and technology in a fast-changing world.

"I will also continue, as I have done for a long time now with others, to work on combating violence against women and girls; that is an issue that matters to me hugely.

The Old meet ups with his EU Mates

Even more never here keir.

Basically taxpayers money will need to be staffed on a new by election because Sir Shameless wants a higher paid job.

I’m not surprised all the Labour chancers are keeping a low profile on here today.

Porky never been so happy he’s been banned as of today.

2026 Local Election Results in Holborn & St Pancras [Top Vote Method]:

Vote Share

LAB: 38.3%
GRN: 29.1%
RFM: 9.2%
CON: 8.4%
LDM: 7.0%
CPA: 6.0%
NHP: 1.3%
Ind: 0.5%

*Only 42% of Primrose Hill electorate within constiuency.

^^^ electionmaps UK.

Donny, what is your thoughts on the cost to the taxpayer of this unnecessary bi election?

Labour "should" win this easily... but the norms of old no longer apply in 2026

The greens are alledgedly fielding their current popstar name, Binface might run.
Will a labour no name win it easily against a popstar name?

AFAIK, entries close on Monday with a likely election date early in October.

G'luck if you're betting on this market.

UK - By-Elections -- Holborn and St Pancras By-Election

6 Runners            £4,559 Matched

			104.5%		99.5%
Labour	1.26	1.27	1.28		1.3	1.32	1.33	£3,648
	£31	£16	£10		£1,517	£1,772	£10
Green Party	3.8	4	4.1		4.6	4.8	5.1	£890
	£11	£11	£10		£41	£10	£15
Reform UK	60	75	100		200	400	500	£16
	£42	£8	£1		£6	£5	£1
Conservative	170	200	210		1000	-	-	£0
	£1	£4	£2		£5
Liberal Democrat	350	360	400		1000	-	-	£0
	£1	£2	£2		£1
Restore Britain	270	300	400		990	1000	-	£4
	£2	£3	£1		£2	£1

Seems a fair assessment escapee

Maybe labour will want someone with history
on local council,...?

1 Oct seems popular date as that follows lab conference and precedes green conference.?

Polanski says he's going for it






Smarkets says....

Labour to win the Holburn and St Pancras by-election is down from 80% yesterday to 73% following @ZackPolanski's announcement...

Polanski 35%-36% on Poly, Sagal Abdi-Wali the Labour frontrunner is 44%-46%

The market has moved on news Polanski said he is seeking selection from the local green party to stand.

UK - By-Elections -- Holborn and St Pancras By-Election

6 Runners            £27,972 Matched

			102%		99.1%
Labour	1.39	1.4	1.41		1.43	1.44	1.45	£22,480
	£64	£28	£2		£1,487	£4	£22
Green Party	3.15	3.25	3.3		3.45	3.5	3.55	£5,313
	£15	£24	£50		£9	£19	£50
Reform UK	170	200	220		490	500	870	£132
	£3	£1	£1		£1	£1	£10
Conservative	460	600	1000		-	-	-	£9
	£1	£1	£14
Liberal Democrat	500	600	1000		-	-	-	£1
	£1	£2	£16
Restore Britain	50	400	600		-	-	-	£37
	£87	£1	£1

My book is +£5 Lab/Green, +£1K any other, was hoping Binface would stand and the independent that finished second last time, but just seen the latter say on X that he isn't standing this time.

Lay refuk for 2 squids and hope mad restore backer turns up...

Could do, think I'll wait a week or so and then lay refuk or try and dutch back Lab/Green. If Restore go mad backing their candidate here then they wont be taken as seriously if they want to pull off the same op in somewhere like clacton.

Zack Green tooth confirms he will stand

Not interested in betting on it but as mentioned below, it is another cost to taxpayers and most likely another anti british MP in the house.

Swapping one out for another one in this instance, to be fair.

No-one will see any ostensible difference in swapping Starmer for a Somali immigrant.

The Progressive Left's wet dream of an Islamic Prime Minister running this country grows ever closer.

Who will protect us from Islamic Terrorism? Certainly not the current Prime Minister or his Home Secretary. And Londoners can completely forget about protection.

London in a Shocking State TBH , Zack Green could go well

An independent candidate received 18.9% of the vote in the 2024 General election. Anti Starmer?, Anti Labour? Dunno.

Clearly a two horse race though. As usual, Reform don't count.

Someone tell him about the last one

Keep backing refuk in the 2 horse race, if you want, layers love it.

Seems to be a little discord in green ranks with a few of the local councillors wanting one of their own to stand, over polanski

Vote for greens is this week, and by election set for 8 October.

Green party conference is 2-4 October so not holding
ballot on 1 October surprised me.

Parties usually get a bounce in polls after conference.

Polling suggests Polanski wins local vote, BTW.

To become candidate.

Labour shortlist in Holborn & St Pancras: Sagal Abdi-Wali (council leader since May), Camron Aref-Adib (Cabinet member for finance), Nasrine Djemai (Cabinet minister for housing).

From twitter

The names of those shortlisted will trigger a few of the usual suspects 1.01

Well it seems to have got a baiter like you going pandy

Just the usual idiot so far Pandora.

UK - By-Elections -- Holborn and St Pancras By-Election

6 Runners            £47,695 Matched

			101.1%		99.8%
Labour	1.38	1.39	1.4		1.41	1.42	1.43	£35,954
	£293	£118	£207		£2	£33	£128
Green Party	3.35	3.4	3.45		3.5	3.55	3.65	£11,349
	£51	£57	£108		£462	£50	£55
Reform UK	240	250	270		380	390	480	£229
	£1	£3	£1		£1	£10	£11
Conservative	430	800	1000		-	-	-	£84
	£3	£1	£5
Liberal Democrat	500	800	1000		-	-	-	£23
	£1	£2	£22
Restore Britain	700	710	1000		-	-	-	£56
	£1	£3	£10

The names of those shortlisted will trigger a few of the usual suspects 1.01

Why not just do a Pandora and start another thread about it?

Last week I was thinking the greens popstar candidate would likely beat a no name labour candidate.

Now I'm starting to think labour taking a tiny, but hugely publicised stand against isreal takes away one of the major reasons why labour are losing voters to the greens.

Burnham's still riding high in the polls.


Looking at the constituency demographic and the 2024 results, it's clear they are a politically aware and motivated bunch of voters.


Has burnham given them a reason to vote green?
Not yet it would seem.

I have it at 60-40 Labour-Green just now but haven't got involved as yet.

I have it at 60-40 Labour-Green just now but haven't got involved as yet.

Election calculus have it the same, which equates to 1.66 / 2.5 vs current market odds of 1.4 / 3.45

Burnham's still riding high in the polls.


Do you have access to polling that isn't public?

Would you mind sharing?

The polls go against your agenda so you wouldn't believe them.


Have you seen the polls regarding your man?
Take a gander at the pinch of salt thread.

Not looked at GE opinion polls for a few weeks, until I read your sentence when I did a search.

The most recently listed is you gov, which has labour on 23%.

What is your understanding of 'riding high' ?

What is your understanding of 'riding high' ?

I use the widely accepted definition, which definition do you use?

From the "pinch of salt" thread, 4th Sept

Who would make the better PM?

Burnham 52% vs Farage 22%
Burnham 50% vs Polanski 8%
Burnham 44% vs Davey 9%
Burnham 42% vs Badenoch 26%

Badenoch 45% vs Farage 16%
Badenoch 39% vs Polanski 20%
Badenoch 33% vs Davey 24%

Davey 38% vs Farage 24%
Davey 28% vs Polanski 14%

Polanski 31% vs Farage 27%

yougov.com

In this context ie polling.

If you think Burnham is 'riding high', what data are you using to reach that conclusion. As it's evidently different to public polling.

Your man's best recent heaad to head result

Farage 65% vs a Dustbin 35%


That poll was confined to the  most refuk seat in the country, I think it probable that the percentages would be reversed in a nationwide poll

You wrote:

Now I'm starting to think labour taking a tiny, but hugely publicised stand against isreal takes away one of the major reasons why labour are losing voters to the greens.

Burnham's still riding high in the polls.

head to head polling is not relevant to that post.

head to head polling is not relevant.

my posts just now, have nothing to do with Reform or Farage. This by election has nothing to do with Reform or Farage. You're absolutely obsessed aren't you. Why aren't you bringing in Trump?

Our national security cannot come at the expense of Social Security says Burnham at PMQs   

The mask always slips in the end, no way will he cut the welfare bill with a mindset like that.

Also , in response to Escapee claiming Burnham was "still" riding high in the polls - this article in The Independent last week may refute that somewhat

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/burnham-warned-against-calling-early-election-as-ratings-stall/ar-AA2bkdul?ocid=BingNewsSerp

head to head polling is not relevant.

As I predicted in my initial response to your request for data, the data goes against your agenda, you wouldn't believe it.


P.S. I was laughing at your claim in another thread that an 18-21yo could work for 3 years (£14k-£19k per year), pay his mum & dad a reasonable ammount for his board & food, have a decent social life and save up £40,000 in 3 years.


We'd love to see your maths on this

As I predicted in my initial response to your request for data, the data goes against your agenda, you wouldn't believe it.


I didn't realise you were referencing head to head polling. I very much doubt you were. It doesn't make sense when the previous sentence was referencing parties and party policy [capitulation].

I'd have had labour much higher chance of winning if election was a week earlier.

Why let greens have their conference bounce
during by election, who has sanctioned that?

I don't think it'll make much difference YHTL, the mass drift of lab voters to green has been driven mostly by starmers stance on isreal and his unbelievable claims of ignorance regarding mandy's job.

Green conference is likely to be portrayed as a bunch of people with looney and unfunded ideas by the media.
Labour's conference is also likely to be derailed by a media grabbing event, so maybe the thinking is "Wait until it's fish 'n chip wrappings"

Possibly not, but in a tight race it could be the difference.

Possible Labour are far enough ahead to cope, but why take the risk.

You are very much right about stemming the mass drift.

An interesting market could be whether REFUK retain or lose their deposit here.

Sagal Abdi-Wali selected as the Labour candidate.

Glad to see Labour supporting incoming British values like Halal food & the replacement of churches by mosques. If MPS paid more attention to the needs of their constituents than wars in far off countries, the UK might not be the cesspit 3rd world country it's become.

Every country is a 3rd world country

Earth is the 3rd planet in the solar system.

I bow to your superior edumacation!