Manchester Mayor Election 30th July

This market been all over place so far. Greens and restore matched for pennies at 1000. Restore are running so I guess they'll be backed. George Galloway running too.

Surely Reform have to try and throw everything at this

Not sure they're ahead of the greens here as main challenger. The council seats that Escapee posted suggest not, and the greens sort of stood down in Burnham's seat to prioritise this one.

This market is more stagnant than a Reform policy workshop!

Needs the maverick Restore backer to get involved (imo).

I think Restore is already washed up and past it's peak.

6%, 3,000 votes in Makerfield, Guesstimate cost per vote for elmo was about £2,000 per voter.

I know he's the world richest man, but 3,000 votes from throwing maximum resources at it, it'll bore him.

Obviously the vote format has been nobbled (it's no longer fptp).

We need a top 2 meerkat.

Maybe even a top 3, and top 4

And top first round vote.

C'mon betfair...

6%, 3,000 votes in Makerfield, The Green Unit didn't get 300 Escapee ,are they washed up ?

Under the Supplementary Vote system that is being used in this election, I can't see any way that Reform can win.

The maverick Restore backer will be Peer Gynt after the by-election

Candidates must enter by 3rd July.

Maybe farage will get another 5 million to stand
down his candidate...

Strong Restore candidate selected here.

It's all over - according to Denise's mob.

Their last price offered on Labour was 1.02 and now they have removed the market from their site altogether!

Polymeerkats are more realistic at 1.095 Labour - but the Restore PR machine seems to have given up as they are 100/1+

Maybe the BBC interviewer has contacted them for comment.

Reconsidering their positions, perhaps, lol.

UK - Mayoral Elections -- Greater Manchester Mayoral By-Election

6 Runners            £19,761 Matched

			103.7%		94.5%
Labour	1.14	1.15	1.18		1.22	1.23	1.24	£14,998
	£100	£90	£20		£20	£22	£25
Reform UK	7.6	8	8.2		12	12.5	13	£2,824
	£20	£2	£17		£6	£2	£9
Green	20	21	22		36	38	40	£733
	£10	£3	£13		£3	£9	£17
Restore Britain	40	42	50		70	75	80	£1,168
	£43	£43	£19		£2	£9	£2
Liberal Democrats	200	210	1000		-	-	-	£31
	£1	£3	£3
Conservative	500	510	1000		-	-	-	£6
	£1	£4	£3

Sian Astley now confirmed as the Reform candidate.

Probably more capable than Rob Kenyon of stringing three words together - but then, who isn't?

Is she never going to give you up?

Property developer - so - never gonna let you down.

Inside, we both know what's been going on
We know the game, and we're gonna play it

Price Rick likely?

Similar pattern being repeated here as the Makerfield by election. Punters appear to only wish to back Labour, Reform drifting out to 10+.

Are Reform going to put a lot of effort into this or are they just dead in the water?

They've high hopes for this one apparently.

Got their candidates down to a final two: Steven Gerrard or Myra Hindley. Good luck to them.

I think Mancs will see it that with Burnham as PM and a labour mayor they will get showered with government cash

The No 10 in Manchester is probably a gimmick but might play out well

Looks a forgone conclusion but how much is it an indicator of national voting? I have never even been to Manchester other than to drop my son at University 25 years ago. Might as well be in DR Congo as far as my life is concerned.

I see someone has now got matched at 27s on Reform on here.

Should be a General Election called , very strange Labour have not gone down that Route , Parachute PM not great Tbh , Better than what we had

i think Labour would have stayed in power if they Called one With Burnham as PM

Why should there be a general election.

Same old boring tosh, it's not how it works.

Wasn't long ago I was having to explain Burnham would only resign if he was elected as an mp.

Why are refuk doing so badly in betting, is this
a new tactic, where the mad manipulator
shortens them as the vote draws nearer
to feign momentum.?

Thought it would be closer. Albeit system disadvantages extreme parties.

Pointless posting anything anymore Donnie , the percentage of posts Not appearing is increasing for no reason I can see TBH

doesnt happen on other forums ,summat wrong with the Mod software on here

I would have thought 5 More years New PM  new Agenda Would be better  for Him

I do not think reform would win an election as is

Not just this forum.

Post on here, post on one of the forums with no link

Same posts get removed, same posts remain.

I doubted it was AI  moderation, but appears to be the case.

12+ Reform now.

60s Reform matched now.

UK - Mayoral Elections -- Greater Manchester Mayoral By-Election

6 Runners            £30,899 Matched

			101.6%		97.7%
Labour	1.09	1.1	1.11		1.12	1.13	1.14	£25,098
	£37	£25	£154		£2,616	£629	£88
Reform UK	14.5	15	16		18	19	20	£3,104
	£7	£1	£1		£1	£27	£2
Green	23	24	36		50	110	150	£888
	£3	£1	£3		£11	£1	£2
Restore Britain	42	50	55		160	170	190	£1,765
	£43	£1	£134		£3	£19	£20
Liberal Democrats	120	200	210		1000	-	-	£33
	£2	£3	£2		£4
Conservative	270	400	500		1000	-	-	£11
	£2	£9	£3		£5

1.02 seems a bit short, any polls?

Looks like Reform UK Ltd have returned to the "no hoper also rans" section less than 3 months after winning control of large numbers of Manchester councils.

UK - Mayoral Elections -- Greater Manchester Mayoral By-Election

6 Runners            £93,540 Matched

			102.5%		98.1%
Labour	-	-	1.01		1.03	1.04	1.05	£86,510
			£315		£2,110	£4,207	£2,240
Reform UK	42	44	50		390	990	1000	£3,368
	£18	£14	£62		£2	£2	£4
Green	90	100	150		200	220	270	£1,019
	£2	£30	£11		£1	£2	£1
Restore Britain	150	160	170		470	480	920	£2,597
	£13	£11	£2		£7	£20	£2
Liberal Democrats	200	210	1000		-	-	-	£34
	£1	£2	£12
Conservative	400	500	1000		-	-	-	£12
	£9	£2	£15

UK - Mayoral Elections -- Manchester Mayoral By-Election Winner W/O Labour

5 Runners            £142 Matched

			108.2%		38.7%
Reform UK	1.01	1.1	1.2		2.76	3	3.05	£132
	£101	£30	£25		£11	£2	£19
Green	1.31	1.32	4.5		42	44	1000	£0
	£20	£2	£4		£12	£3	£2
Restore Britain	10	60	80		970	1000	-	£5
	£10	£4	£2		£3	£1
Liberal Democrats	1.01	100	160		-	-	-	£2
	£101	£1	£2
Conservative	1.01	100	130		-	-	-	£2
	£101	£1	£2

380.0 matched on Reform, currently 250.0.

Post your bets. Or is it just the usual hot air?

You've gone pretty quiet on Fatface, oddly enough.

Labour apparently have won very easily here, Reform nowhere.

Ground breaking, where would the forum be without your after timing :)

Manchester (alone) turnout 22.7%. Rest of boroughs being verified.

Greater Manchester turnout 25.14%.

Very low turn out for the biggest ever by-election in the UK (2,000,000 registered voters)

can't blame them, harvest is down. but the 'election' is only happening as Andy Crapp fancied being pm, and abandoned the place he loves so much.

Trafford - 35%
Stockport - 31%
Bury - 28%
Tameside - 25%
Bolton - 23%
Manchester - 23%
Rochdale - 23%
Salford - 23%
Oldham - 22%
Wigan - 22%

Green candidate comes from Trafford, so possibly has done well there.

Reform were hoping to do best in Rochdale, Salford, Oldham and Wigan. Coincidence that they are the four boroughs with the lowest turnout?