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1.04 currently. That has to be the biggest lay value I've seen this year by far.
A majority of recent leadership contests for PM/party leader have been won by outsiders no one expected. Also generally speaking the assassin doesn't become king.
Burnham is popular, I'll likely vote for him with some reservations, but 95%+? That's ridiculous given the volatility in British politics.
Worth adding there's a significant arb at polymarket. Pretty close to free money, though technically there's a tiny chance this drags on till december in which case polymarket settles differently from betfair, but it is pretty close to it.
A majority of recent leadership contests for PM/party leader have been won by outsiders no one expected. Also generally speaking the assassin doesn't become king.
Burnham is popular, I'll likely vote for him with some reservations, but 95%+? That's ridiculous given the volatility in British politics.
Worth adding there's a significant arb at polymarket. Pretty close to free money, though technically there's a tiny chance this drags on till december in which case polymarket settles differently from betfair, but it is pretty close to it.
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I seem to recall David Davis was 1.0x to become Tory leader without so much as a contest nearly 20 years ago, until the media, as one, decided they wanted a contest and furthermore that David Cameron was the greatest thing since "Strangeways Here We Come".
Davis was beaten out of sight.
Pretty sure that Ken Clarke was also perilously short odds to win the Tory leadership contests eventually won by William Hague , AND later by Iain D S.
Davis was beaten out of sight.
Pretty sure that Ken Clarke was also perilously short odds to win the Tory leadership contests eventually won by William Hague , AND later by Iain D S.
John Major was 33/1 to be next leader after Maggie - I know because I had a few quid on it (it was probably the last time I had a winner!
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I have had Boris Johnson, David Millipede and Zia lays matched over the last couple of days 
Zia only 79p, but I'll take it.
Zia only 79p, but I'll take it.
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