Josh Simons MP resigns.

Labour will likely lose manchester if burnham steps down in search of a seat in the commons.

I doubt Labour will take that risk.

I think labour are now wed to Burnham.

What else can they do?


There was some chatter about Gary neville for Manchester mayor
but likely easily dismissed.

Burnham has said in the last hour that he is going to seek permission to stand in Makersfield.

I can confirm that I will be requesting the permission of the NEC to stand in the Makerfield by-election.

I grew up in this area and have lived here for 25 years. I care deeply about it and its people. I know they have been let down by national politics.

Ten years ago, I decided to leave Westminster. Why? Because, after 16 years, I came to the conclusion that our national political system does not work for areas like ours. I learnt this fighting its failure to invest in the Wigan borough, for justice for the Hillsborough families and against its treatment of Greater Manchester during the pandemic.

AB

Market now up...Burnham opened odds on.
Interesting after the Reform massacre last week

Labour opened odds on.

He hasn't been nommed yet, but assume he will be
and price only slightly changes downwards, but would
rush out if he is not.

UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield by-election

5 Runners            £8,555 Matched

			106.8%		100.7%
Labour	1.72	1.73	1.74		1.84	1.88	1.89	£5,119
	£2	£52	£19		£2	£5	£20
Reform	2.22	2.26	2.28		2.36	2.38	2.4	£3,375
	£37	£4	£583		£23	£35	£23
Green	20	21	22		25	42	-	£60
	£1	£1	£50		£2	£3
plus 2 more runners not listed above, at odds of over 100

Vote refuk... Get starmer

Game over

Can we get restore added so the mad manipulator can give us a few more squids.

What price is Gerry Mander?

Can we get restore added so the mad manipulator can give us a few more squids.

They've joined the market as 3rd favourite

UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield by-election

6 Runners            £63,214 Matched

			102.6%		99.1%
Labour	1.78	1.79	1.8		1.82	1.83	1.84	£39,974
	£6	£10	£42		£30	£10	£10
Reform	2.1	2.14	2.2		2.3	2.34	2.36	£23,045
	£40	£61	£50		£33	£16	£105
Restore Britain	70	80	95		250	500	990	£52
	£10	£8	£4		£2	£13	£33
Green	200	280	310		330	570	580	£129
	£1	£1	£4		£8	£5	£1
Conservative	220	540	1000		-	-	-	£6
	£4	£1	£8
Liberal Democrats	220	480	1000		-	-	-	£8
	£3	£1	£7

Into 60,lol, any chance you can get it down to 25?

NEC officers have voted by a majority to let Andy Burnham stand in the Makerfield by-election.

Unclear if a meeting was held in the end - there were conflicting reports this morning and sources told me earlier there was nothing in the diary - but a vote has been taken and Burnham will be allowed to stand as the candidate.

Geri Scott

A Labour Party spokesperson said: "Labour's ruling body, the National Executive Committee has today given permission to Andy Burnham to stand in the candidate selection process in the forthcoming by-election for the Makerfield constituency."

Application opens today, closes 18th may


Shortlist 19th

Selection 21st may

Next step is burnham has to get selected to stand by the local labour party

I topped up some more at 1.8 on labour, price surely going to come in on the NEC news

Reform says it won **all eight** wards in the constituency in the local elections

In the eight wards voting:

Reform: 50.4%
Labour: 22.7%
Green: 10.9%
Conservative: 9.9%
Lib Dem: 3.8%
Other: 2.2%

The Makerfield by-election will take place on Thursday 18 June

Thursday 18th June, a week into football's World Cup.

England play their first game against Croatia at 9pm the previous night; Scotland v Morocco late on the Friday night. (Those waiting for the declaration can watch Uzbekistan v Colombia at 3am!)

After the big defeats on May 7th, Labour thinks that the solution is to ask one its more popular MPs to resign to make way for the very popular Manchester Mayor, Andy Burnham. It would be ironic but also poetic justice if they end up losing both the Makersfield seat and the inevitable Mayoral contest. What an insult to those who voted for Josh Simons for MP and and for Burnham in 2024. They won healthy majorities at the time when Labour won 400 plus seats. Now they might be relieved to win 200. Two years is an eternity in politics.

I'm not sure Simons was that popular. Had to resign his ministerial position in disgrace not too long ago and would almost certainly lose the seat at the next election.

poetic justice if they end up losing both the Makersfield seat and the inevitable Mayoral contest.


How on earth does that happen, please

Restore into 32, c'mon you've got more cash, get them
into 20s or lower...

yhtl, you ask how that can happen? It already has happened. Simons has resigned which triggers a by election. Burnham has resigned as Mayor triggering a new election for Mayor-unless he intends to do 2 jobs which I doubt. And we are also going to have a leadership election for the Labour Party which very few of us have a vote in. Apart from anything else, all of these will increase the UK borrowing requirement and put up interest rates for everyone.

He hasnt resigned as mayor, and if he loses by election, will not.

20s restore, c'mon you can get this into 12s easily

We've got holidays to finance.

I think it  very likely they will get it to 12's or even lower.

The Layers of Labour and reform are getting hammered.
Without restore's 5% the market would be around 1.6 labour, 2.66 reform, so the lab/ ref layers
are giving an extra 10+% value to the backers.

Watching the market action, I reckon someone has managed to push it down with less than a £5k outlay.

UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield by-election

6 Runners            £231,054 Matched

			100.2%		99%
Labour	1.65	1.66	1.67		1.68	1.69	1.7	£134,249
	£214	£29	£7		£81	£161	£126
Reform	2.84	2.88	2.9		2.94	2.96	2.98	£59,590
	£50	£86	£15		£18	£11	£24
Restore Britain	18	18.5	19		19.5	20	21	£36,018
	£121	£202	£93		£24	£15	£71
Green	250	270	280		350	430	470	£817
	£6	£1	£3		£9	£3	£9
Conservative	810	850	1000		-	-	-	£194
	£1	£1	£23
Liberal Democrats	810	850	1000		-	-	-	£186
	£1	£1	£27

IMV the casual observer will still see restore as no hopers unless the odds go to single figures.

16/1 great work, we can do 12

We really need a meerkat on restore vote share

0-4.99%
5-9.99%
10-14.99%
15-19.99%
20 and over

Thanks betfair

16/1 great work, we can do 12

Restore traded at 12/1 this morning

8/1 is on the cards

Odds	To Back	To Lay	Traded
10	£452.00

10.5    £14.00       

11	£621.00
11.5	£229.00
12	£152.00
12.5	£59.10
13	£104.00		£1,119.17
13.5	£85.00		£378.84
14	£12.00		£420.42
14.5	£4.00		£646.12
15	£328.10		£1,112.97
15.5	£183.34		£1,195.75
16	£37.26		£1,953.67
16.5			£1,592.61
17			£2,495.95
17.5		£31.60	£4,019.32
18		£94.09	£4,903.80
18.5		£51.94	£3,095.59

UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield by-election

6 Runners            £340,282 Matched

			101.3%		99.9%
Labour	1.57	1.58	1.59		1.6	1.61	1.64	£187,083
	£705	£553	£198		£409	£417	£444
Reform	3.05	3.1	3.15		3.2	3.25	3.3	£81,955
	£29	£512	£156		£1	£134	£26
Restore Britain	15	15.5	16		16.5	17	17.5	£69,798
	£328	£183	£17		£5	£38	£12
Green	410	420	500		930	940	980	£1,056
	£26	£2	£2		£7	£1	£2
Conservative	810	850	1000		-	-	-	£202
	£1	£1	£51
Liberal Democrats	810	850	1000		-	-	-	£188
	£1	£1	£58

Almost as if I'm guiding the mad manipulator

Can we do 10,its easy enough to do it...

8.6 would be a decent target...

Makerfield by-election candidates have been confirmed -

Andy Burnham does stand for Labour;

Reform pick Robert Kenyon.

Restore needs to deposit more cash, c'mon
get those forms uploaded.

I think they're happy keeping it in the 12-17 range.
They've got another 4 weeks of this so they'll have to spread their budget a bit.

Do you think this money comes from that bloke in Thailand?
It's unlikely to appear on any declarations of legitimate electoral expenditure.

Hard to know who runs it.

You'd think it's somebody that knows what they are
doing who has lots of money, and it probably doesn't cost
as much to do it, as others will take some of his trades

It won't be linked to expenses, yet

But bbc guy doing stuff for radio 4 must be watching.

and once mainstream understand what's been going on
it could get even more lucrative for us, like Trump v Biden even!

You'd think it's somebody that knows what they are
doing who has lots of money, and it probably doesn't cost
as much to do it, as others will take some of his trades

I've been watching the action, it's definitely somebody who knows what they are doing.
imho, it most likely 2 accounts matching against each other, backing and laying each others bets
so that their liability and £cost is around a couple of £thousand, They may even end with a profit if they combine it
with some backs on the resultant over priced odds of Labour & Reform.

There's someone I know who (very successfully) utilises this method on horse racing.
First accumulating some backs, then beating the price down and it becomes steamer as others pile on, which he then lays.

Or one person with two accounts betfair have not yet linked.

some £high stake players have sub accounts, commission is netted off between the two sub accounts pnl on the same markets at the end of the week/month etc.

Matching your own bet (allegedly) doesn't show on the amount traded, but if you use two different sub-accounts it does show up in the amount traded.

Yeah, was a way to see if they'd linked your accounts.

Didn't show up on graph.

Allegedly

The restore backer also uses Polymarket. Rupert Lowe to be next PM was backed on there first I believe, and went shorter than he went on here. They have to spread the money across various platforms.

Yeah, and the forget the sub markets on here
and can't quite work out head to head prices correctly

Must be getting on with bookies too, as they are short there too

Bookies ain't daft, of course we will take your 8/1 requests.

Unless they don't take bets and are bribed to lower
prices for political gain...

They forget

Just had a look at Lowe's X account, full of posts about the odds collapsing and screenshots of the bookies odds

New account on poly just spent $6K in the last few minutes on restore to win Makerfield, odds from 12/1 down to 5/1

New account on poly just spent $6K in the last few minutes on restore to win Makerfield, odds from 12/1 down to 5/1

What has this pushed Labour & Reform odds too?

It's currently 66% (1.5ish) Labour, 24% (4.2ish) Reform and 11% (10) restore. Labour not budged but reform dropped a little, orderbook on restore is recovering a bit.

It doesn't operate as a complete market on Poly, you cant offset liabilities like you can on here, so no instant arbs unless you want to tie up capital.

He needs to knock reform out a bit, so he can say, look
vote for us as refuk can't win, look at the odds...

All he's doing at the moment is paying for our holidays and
bookies bonuses.

Has the mad manipulator knocked Burnham in today, so he can knock him
out tomorrow after the questiontime episode.

No restore in debate is bonus for refuk,.. More
pro farage BBC bias.