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Josh Simons MP resigns.
----you-have-to-laugh---
----you-have-to-laugh---
14 May 26 17:25
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Date Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 68,387 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
MP for Makerfield

Resigning to facilitate Burnham return to parliament, or attempt to.

Get the meerkat up betfair
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Replies: 52
By:
Escapee When: 14 May 26 17:31
Labour will likely lose manchester if burnham steps down in search of a seat in the commons.

I doubt Labour will take that risk.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 14 May 26 17:35
I think labour are now wed to Burnham.

What else can they do?


There was some chatter about Gary neville for Manchester mayor
but likely easily dismissed.
By:
Escapee When: 14 May 26 18:06
Burnham has said in the last hour that he is going to seek permission to stand in Makersfield.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 14 May 26 18:09
I can confirm that I will be requesting the permission of the NEC to stand in the Makerfield by-election.

I grew up in this area and have lived here for 25 years. I care deeply about it and its people. I know they have been let down by national politics.

Ten years ago, I decided to leave Westminster. Why? Because, after 16 years, I came to the conclusion that our national political system does not work for areas like ours. I learnt this fighting its failure to invest in the Wigan borough, for justice for the Hillsborough families and against its treatment of Greater Manchester during the pandemic.

AB
By:
tashkent terror When: 14 May 26 18:52
Market now up...Burnham opened odds on.
Interesting after the Reform massacre last week
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 14 May 26 18:55
Labour opened odds on.

He hasn't been nommed yet, but assume he will be
and price only slightly changes downwards, but would
rush out if he is not.
By:
Escapee When: 14 May 26 19:00
UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield by-election        
5 Runners            £8,555 Matched   



              106.8%   100.7%             
Labour    1.72 1.73 1.74   1.84   1.88   1.89   £5,119
        £2 £52 £19     £2 £5 £20  
Reform    2.22 2.26 2.28   2.36   2.38   2.4   £3,375
        £37 £4 £583     £23 £35 £23  
Green    20 21 22   25   42   -   £60
        £1 £1 £50     £2 £3      
  plus 2 more runners not listed above, at odds of over 100 
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 14 May 26 19:03
Vote refuk... Get starmer

Game over
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 14 May 26 21:02
Can we get restore added so the mad manipulator can give us a few more squids.
By:
Shrewd_dude When: 14 May 26 21:04
What price is Gerry Mander?
By:
Escapee When: 15 May 26 10:52

Can we get restore added so the mad manipulator can give us a few more squids.


CoolLaugh


They've joined the market as 3rd favouriteCrazy



UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield by-election        
6 Runners            £63,214 Matched   



              102.6%   99.1%             
Labour    1.78 1.79 1.8   1.82   1.83   1.84   £39,974
        £6 £10 £42     £30 £10 £10  
Reform    2.1 2.14 2.2   2.3   2.34   2.36   £23,045
        £40 £61 £50     £33 £16 £105  
Restore Britain    70 80 95   250   500   990   £52
        £10 £8 £4     £2 £13 £33  
Green    200 280 310   330   570   580   £129
        £1 £1 £4     £8 £5 £1  
Conservative    220 540 1000   -   -   -   £6
        £4 £1 £8              
Liberal Democrats    220 480 1000   -   -   -   £8
        £3 £1 £7              
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 15 May 26 12:38
Into 60,lol, any chance you can get it down to 25?
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 15 May 26 17:16
NEC officers have voted by a majority to let Andy Burnham stand in the Makerfield by-election.

Unclear if a meeting was held in the end - there were conflicting reports this morning and sources told me earlier there was nothing in the diary - but a vote has been taken and Burnham will be allowed to stand as the candidate.

Geri Scott
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 15 May 26 17:18
A Labour Party spokesperson said: "Labour's ruling body, the National Executive Committee has today given permission to Andy Burnham to stand in the candidate selection process in the forthcoming by-election for the Makerfield constituency."

Application opens today, closes 18th may


Shortlist 19th

Selection 21st may
By:
Escapee When: 15 May 26 17:20
Next step is burnham has to get selected to stand by the local labour party
By:
Escapee When: 15 May 26 17:21
I topped up some more at 1.8 on labour, price surely going to come in on the NEC news
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 15 May 26 17:36
Reform says it won **all eight** wards in the constituency in the local elections

In the eight wards voting:

Reform: 50.4%
Labour: 22.7%
Green: 10.9%
Conservative: 9.9%
Lib Dem: 3.8%
Other: 2.2%
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 15 May 26 18:09
The Makerfield by-election will take place on Thursday 18 June
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 15 May 26 23:22
Thursday 18th June, a week into football's World Cup.

England play their first game against Croatia at 9pm the previous night; Scotland v Morocco late on the Friday night. (Those waiting for the declaration can watch Uzbekistan v Colombia at 3am!)
By:
sageform When: 16 May 26 11:24
After the big defeats on May 7th, Labour thinks that the solution is to ask one its more popular MPs to resign to make way for the very popular Manchester Mayor, Andy Burnham. It would be ironic but also poetic justice if they end up losing both the Makersfield seat and the inevitable Mayoral contest. What an insult to those who voted for Josh Simons for MP and and for Burnham in 2024. They won healthy majorities at the time when Labour won 400 plus seats. Now they might be relieved to win 200. Two years is an eternity in politics.
By:
PorcupineorPineapple When: 16 May 26 11:53
I'm not sure Simons was that popular. Had to resign his ministerial position in disgrace not too long ago and would almost certainly lose the seat at the next election.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 16 May 26 13:38
poetic justice if they end up losing both the Makersfield seat and the inevitable Mayoral contest.


How on earth does that happen, please
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 17 May 26 00:17
Restore into 32, c'mon you've got more cash, get them
into 20s or lower...
By:
sageform When: 17 May 26 08:58
yhtl, you ask how that can happen? It already has happened. Simons has resigned which triggers a by election. Burnham has resigned as Mayor triggering a new election for Mayor-unless he intends to do 2 jobs which I doubt. And we are also going to have a leadership election for the Labour Party which very few of us have a vote in. Apart from anything else, all of these will increase the UK borrowing requirement and put up interest rates for everyone.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 17 May 26 12:05
He hasnt resigned as mayor, and if he loses by election, will not.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 17 May 26 22:53
20s restore, c'mon you can get this into 12s easily

We've got holidays to finance.
By:
Escapee When: 17 May 26 23:21
I think it  very likely they will get it to 12's or even lower.

The Layers of Labour and reform are getting hammered.
Without restore's 5% the market would be around 1.6 labour, 2.66 reform, so the lab/ ref layers
are giving an extra 10+% value to the backers.

Watching the market action, I reckon someone has managed to push it down with less than a £5k outlay.
By:
Escapee When: 17 May 26 23:21
UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield by-election        
6 Runners            £231,054 Matched   



              100.2%   99%             
Labour    1.65 1.66 1.67   1.68   1.69   1.7   £134,249
        £214 £29 £7     £81 £161 £126  
Reform    2.84 2.88 2.9   2.94   2.96   2.98   £59,590
        £50 £86 £15     £18 £11 £24  
Restore Britain    18 18.5 19   19.5   20   21   £36,018
        £121 £202 £93     £24 £15 £71  
Green    250 270 280   350   430   470   £817
        £6 £1 £3     £9 £3 £9  
Conservative    810 850 1000   -   -   -   £194
        £1 £1 £23              
Liberal Democrats    810 850 1000   -   -   -   £186
        £1 £1 £27              
By:
blank When: 18 May 26 11:23
IMV the casual observer will still see restore as no hopers unless the odds go to single figures.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 18 May 26 23:36
16/1 great work, we can do 12
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 18 May 26 23:40
We really need a meerkat on restore vote share

0-4.99%
5-9.99%
10-14.99%
15-19.99%
20 and over

Thanks betfair
By:
Escapee When: 19 May 26 12:55

16/1 great work, we can do 12


Restore traded at 12/1 this morningLaughCrazy

8/1 is on the cards

Odds To Back To Lay Traded
10    £452.00   

10.5    £14.00       
11    £621.00
11.5    £229.00
12    £152.00
12.5    £59.10
13    £104.00        £1,119.17
13.5    £85.00     £378.84
14    £12.00     £420.42
14.5    £4.00         £646.12
15    £328.10     £1,112.97
15.5    £183.34     £1,195.75
16    £37.26     £1,953.67
16.5            £1,592.61
17            £2,495.95
17.5        £31.60    £4,019.32
18        £94.09    £4,903.80
18.5        £51.94    £3,095.59
By:
Escapee When: 19 May 26 12:57
UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield by-election        
6 Runners            £340,282 Matched   



              101.3%   99.9%             
Labour    1.57 1.58 1.59   1.6   1.61   1.64   £187,083
        £705 £553 £198     £409 £417 £444  
Reform    3.05 3.1 3.15   3.2   3.25   3.3   £81,955
        £29 £512 £156     £1 £134 £26  
Restore Britain    15 15.5 16   16.5   17   17.5   £69,798
        £328 £183 £17     £5 £38 £12  
Green    410 420 500   930   940   980   £1,056
        £26 £2 £2     £7 £1 £2  
Conservative    810 850 1000   -   -   -   £202
        £1 £1 £51              
Liberal Democrats    810 850 1000   -   -   -   £188
        £1 £1 £58              
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 19 May 26 13:00
Almost as if I'm guiding the mad manipulator

Can we do 10,its easy enough to do it...

8.6 would be a decent target...
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 19 May 26 15:26
Makerfield by-election candidates have been confirmed -

Andy Burnham does stand for Labour;

Reform pick Robert Kenyon.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 20 May 26 11:43
Restore needs to deposit more cash, c'mon
get those forms uploaded.
By:
Escapee When: 20 May 26 12:40
I think they're happy keeping it in the 12-17 range.
They've got another 4 weeks of this so they'll have to spread their budget a bit.

Do you think this money comes from that bloke in Thailand?
It's unlikely to appear on any declarations of legitimate electoral expenditure.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 20 May 26 13:14
Hard to know who runs it.

You'd think it's somebody that knows what they are
doing who has lots of money, and it probably doesn't cost
as much to do it, as others will take some of his trades

It won't be linked to expenses, yet

But bbc guy doing stuff for radio 4 must be watching.

and once mainstream understand what's been going on
it could get even more lucrative for us, like Trump v Biden even!
By:
Escapee When: 20 May 26 14:00

You'd think it's somebody that knows what they are
doing who has lots of money, and it probably doesn't cost
as much to do it, as others will take some of his trades


I've been watching the action, it's definitely somebody who knows what they are doing.
imho, it most likely 2 accounts matching against each other, backing and laying each others bets
so that their liability and £cost is around a couple of £thousand, They may even end with a profit if they combine it
with some backs on the resultant over priced odds of Labour & Reform.

There's someone I know who (very successfully) utilises this method on horse racing.
First accumulating some backs, then beating the price down and it becomes steamer as others pile on, which he then lays.
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