Politics
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So Restore Britain have formally launched and are lucky to take votes off Reform. They are likely to get around 7-10% of the vote. That will mostly come from Reform.
The Greens will have been polling to within as little as 2% of Reform so it is inevitable some poll will show them in the lead soon. Probably Yougov or Find Out now, as the others tend to be less positive towards the Greens.
That's inevitably going to cause their odds of 7.6 to collapse. I'm sure some will say the Greens can't win because they are silly or something, but that isn't really the point here. The point is we will get a lot of "oh wow" headlines pushing the price down for an easy lock.
People will think "they are in the lead, 7.6 is easy money". Then they will get an additional boost due to increased public awareness.
I tend to think the actual chances of the Greens winning is higher than generally thought due to the impressive efficiency of their vote share, but that's a separate discussion.
The Greens will have been polling to within as little as 2% of Reform so it is inevitable some poll will show them in the lead soon. Probably Yougov or Find Out now, as the others tend to be less positive towards the Greens.
That's inevitably going to cause their odds of 7.6 to collapse. I'm sure some will say the Greens can't win because they are silly or something, but that isn't really the point here. The point is we will get a lot of "oh wow" headlines pushing the price down for an easy lock.
People will think "they are in the lead, 7.6 is easy money". Then they will get an additional boost due to increased public awareness.
I tend to think the actual chances of the Greens winning is higher than generally thought due to the impressive efficiency of their vote share, but that's a separate discussion.
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Not sure Restore ever get near 10% in reality.
The big thing looming is obviously the local elections. If the Greens do well and take a few councils then they suddenly look legitimate. The ME war is obviously casting a huge shadow over everything right now, and Starmer generally shines best as a global statesman. However, our reliance on oil is going to look increasingly flawed in coming months which could play into Green hands. I reckon Ed Miliband will need to be front and centrea with some energy ideas to offer a viable alternative. But still, Labour won't be able to mock the links to Trump the way the Greens can, and the other leaders are all on the hook there as cosying up to the orange buffoon. The Greens are also alone in not making muslims feel like second class citizens, which again is pertinent nowadays. So looking at the likely way the country is going in terms of energy and food shocks and the need to insulate ourselves, the ever-increasing blaming of minorities for decisions of politicans and capitalists, then the Greens look like they are the only ones offering an alternative to the mainstream. The only question is can they look a viable and legitimate government. Wouldn't have thought so a couple of years ago but so much has changed since. |
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Yeah you would have thought the Greens would do well. They will clean up in Muslim areas obviously, but their anti-war, anti-trump stance is very fashionable at the moment and none of the other parties are in a position to capitalize on it. The GE will be much tougher but a strong showing in the locals will cause their odds to noticeably drop for that.
I also think the odds underestimate the anti-reform bloc which is genuinely powerful and unprecedented for a major party. You'll see a lot of that in the locals, people switching to whatever party can keep them out. |
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10% is upper end obviously.
I suppose just so no one makes out I'm trying to manipulate the market that Your Party were polling that high six months ago and Restore Britain could also mess it up. But YP was a very unusual level of mess even for British politics. I WOULD expect them to take at least 2% off reform and that's all Polanski needs to take the lead in some outlier poll. |
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Yeah, Reform's huge problem is that even if they're polling 30%, a huge part of the other 70% doesn't want them and will look at the best bet to keep them out. I don't think any of the other parties have such an avowed and organised opposition.
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Restore will be lucky to get 5% and certainly nowhere near 10.
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Well the only polls we have show 7-10% for RB
They could decline but why? I mean how do you alienate an audience that is mostly bonkers anyway? Trump never dips below 35% even after tanking the global economy. |
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I'd be a backer of restore getting lower than 1%
Only place I've ever seen them mentioned is on here. Where is their country wide good publicity and PR supposed to come from? Do they have any media backers? |
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Restore likely get 2-3%, if they run a good campaign.
Council elections are way too early for them and bad results can knock them back. |
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"Do they have any media backers?"
The richest man in the world and owner of twitter, Elon Musk. Much as I would wish it otherwise, a platform that size will easily get you 5%+. |
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Some quality stuff on here. People still thinking that twatter decides elections. And foreign policy.
Starmer generally shines best as a global statesman A cracker amongst many crackers :) They [Restore] are likely to get around 7-10% of the vote. What vote? |
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Politics betting is generally glacial, but if the green party could have created the perfect circumstances for a by election, it would have been just like the last one. Sure, all parties can have potential voters peeling off to other vaguely analogous parties, but for the islamist supporting greens to be in a position where they could win 100s of seats, they would need the party of government to absolutely collapse into single figures. Many things are possible, but I don't see state workers all flocking to the party of the tiit whisperer who wants to legalise crack (for example). They will be exposed once the novelty has worn off for the legacy media. And yes, we'll get an early preview in the upcoming Wales and Scotland local elections.
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islamist...tiit whisperer...legalise crack...
Tell me you're worried about the greens without telling me... |