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Ok, I'm not a massive fan of betting on events that likely won't settle for years (putting it mildly!). But I have been drawn in to this one, due to the prices being traded.
Green Party being matched today @ 8.x.
I get that if they win the by G&D by election as expected, that will have a short term impact on the GE markets. But this one of the most perfectly set up seats for them. Single figures on this market is quite bullish !
Plus Restore UK sub 20. I just cannot see a pathway into the 'mainstream' for them.
Green Party being matched today @ 8.x.
I get that if they win the by G&D by election as expected, that will have a short term impact on the GE markets. But this one of the most perfectly set up seats for them. Single figures on this market is quite bullish !
Plus Restore UK sub 20. I just cannot see a pathway into the 'mainstream' for them.
Show More
| UK - Next General Election -- Most Seats |
| 9 Runners £1,669,779 Matched |
| 101.2% | 95.4% | |||||||
| Labour | 2.8 | 2.84 | 2.86 | 3.05 | 3.1 | 3.15 | £344,162 | |
| £5,407 | £569 | £11 | £167 | £169 | £95 | |||
| Reform UK | 2.96 | 3 | 3.05 | 3.25 | 3.3 | 3.4 | £1,031,205 | |
| £58 | £112 | £41 | £13 | £18 | £7 | |||
| Conservatives | 7.4 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 8 | 8.2 | 8.4 | £128,670 | |
| £3,356 | £565 | £14 | £79 | £114 | £18 | |||
| Green Party | 7.8 | 8 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 8.8 | £70,053 | |
| £10 | £81 | £5 | £7 | £22 | £46 | |||
| Restore Britain | 18 | 18.5 | 19 | 21 | 22 | 23 | £62,807 | |
| £19 | £5 | £1 | £24 | £53 | £60 | |||
| Liberal Democrats | 38 | 40 | 42 | 46 | 48 | 55 | £21,486 | |
| £6 | £10 | £15 | £246 | £43 | £32 | |||
| Advance UK | 220 | 270 | 290 | 570 | 580 | 590 | £7,772 | |
| £1 | £3 | £1 | £2 | £1 | £1 | |||
| Your Party | 280 | 300 | 310 | 420 | 430 | 450 | £2,736 | |
| £11 | £3 | £1 | £5 | £10 | £2 | |||
| Workers Party of Britain | 870 | 880 | 900 | 1000 | - | - | £888 | |
| £3 | £3 | £40 | £12 |
Labour 1.50
Refuk 1.85
Tories 2.34
Greens 8.00
Restore 15.00
Lib dems 26.00
Advance 44.00
Your p 100.0
Workers p 100.00
Who needs to tie up monets at those prices.
Refuk 1.85
Tories 2.34
Greens 8.00
Restore 15.00
Lib dems 26.00
Advance 44.00
Your p 100.0
Workers p 100.00
Who needs to tie up monets at those prices.
Laying the greens is roughly 12% return , i would assume they then lay the lib dems advance your party and workers party as well for no additional liablity
so maybe 15% return over which could be over 3 years away , of course an early election could occur
so maybe 15% return over which could be over 3 years away , of course an early election could occur
absolutely ridiculos price for the greens, the only party that is value is the tories
Those prices have already been laid, (sadly not by me)
but it's a nice book for them already.
but it's a nice book for them already.
Feb 26, 2026 -- 8:30PM, MrStrawMan wrote:
Laying the greens is roughly 12% return , i would assume they then lay the lib dems advance your party and workers party as well for no additional liablityso maybe 15% return over which could be over 3 years away , of course an early election could occur
My initial approach actually is to use my largest liability for Restore. Currently average lay 17. I just can't see a plausible way for them to get to double digits in polling, never mind get 100+ MPs. So I expect to reduce that liability within a year for next to no cost.
I mean as there is only 1 winner , the liabilty doesnt increase when laying another so might as well lay some more as well.
Never thought I'd see the day, the Green Party single digits most seats for a general election. Be surprised if they got more than the lib dems and they got no chance imo either.
I mean as there is only 1 winner , the liabilty doesnt increase when laying another so might as well lay some more as well.
Most definitely. But my liability now is not my intended liability for the duration of the market. Rightly or wrongly I'm taking the view that the Restore price is deranged and not the probability that a natural market would make it. I can see the greens staying under 100 until the election.
Most definitely. But my liability now is not my intended liability for the duration of the market. Rightly or wrongly I'm taking the view that the Restore price is deranged and not the probability that a natural market would make it. I can see the greens staying under 100 until the election.
99/1 your party.
what a bonkers market.
The Gaza vote is still pretty niche in most of the country.
what a bonkers market.
The Gaza vote is still pretty niche in most of the country.
If Starmer was a political animal, he would have invited Andy Burnham to contest the Gorton and Denton by election. Burnham is even more pro-Yisrael than Starmer, were that possible.
Look at the terrible mess Starmer is in now:- Burnham’s lickspittles already saying Our guy would have won yesterday.
Look at the terrible mess Starmer is in now:- Burnham’s lickspittles already saying Our guy would have won yesterday.
I'm sure this market only had Labour/Reform/Tories and Lib dems listed a few months ago, with close to a 100% book, I thought about laying them all to generate huge profits on additional runners, I was thinking maybe Reform and Tories do a deal and create something. Someone will be sitting pretty now with these prices.
Yes when I flicked over to the market and saw greens available at 4 to lay, I couldn't quite believe it. Having been up until 5am, it's probably not conducive to great betting choices, but I did decide help the backer out !
Quite surprising that Restore haven't drifted more after the Buckley flop. Sure it's technically a different party, but if you are in the Restore space then Advance was the option on the ballot. I expected him to get 500 or so, but strictly friends and family. It's just a mystery why Restore are so short. To me anyway.
No mystery, price is manipulated for advertising gain.
Greens have come up with a winning policy, now making me doubt my posi on them. Their prison spokesman wants to see the abolition of prisons 
well if you legalise all drugs I suppose you wont need as many prison places
Might be a strange logic there
Might be a strange logic there
Yes. One can see the green nutters doing ok in the elections next month. Hopefully another chance to get them laid at 3-1 again!
yep their vote is extremely concentrated in certain areas. even at 20% they'd likely still struggle to get near 100 seats
I hope they do , they will finnish off this inept mob of Chancers we have in power
The Greens will do well in all elections going forward because all the other main parties have looked the other way while Israel slaughtered nearly 100 thousand Palestinians.
25 thousand off those were children. Labour especially are ******
25 thousand off those were children. Labour especially are ******
Well see which way and how hard the wind blows in May.
I expect greens to do ok next month. I am not clear on what impact they will have on your mythical slaughtering in another continent.
No result in upcoming election will bring back the victims
of Israel genocide.
That the greens spoke against the genocide will
mean they continue to take votes from Labour, as starmer
has just about realised isreal are now genociding Lebanon.
of Israel genocide.
That the greens spoke against the genocide will
mean they continue to take votes from Labour, as starmer
has just about realised isreal are now genociding Lebanon.
mythical slaughtering
Not just about Gaza: the Muslim voters turning from Labour to the Greens
Mohammed Suleman, a self-described “straight-talking Geordie”, doesn’t love politics. The taxi driver and businessman prefers to focus on community initiatives. But when the time came, he voted Labour as the lesser of two evils.
Then came the war in Gaza.
A month into the war, which a UN committee would later describe as a genocide, Suleman, and others at his local mosque, began a petition calling on their Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West Labour MP, Chi Onwurah, to vote for a ceasefire. He knew it was largely symbolic, but it represented something important: that the children of Palestine, who looked like his and were raised in the same faith, mattered.
“And the best she could do was abstain,” Suleman said. “That’s when I blew my top.”
Suleman was speaking before heading out canvassing in Arthur’s Hill, to the west of Newcastle. The city is often described as segregated: a white working-class east and a more diverse west, both long central to Labour’s base. But while Labour has spent years trying to win over “hero voters” in the east, it has been slower to reckon with a tectonic shift among Muslim voters.
Mohammed Suleman, a self-described “straight-talking Geordie”, doesn’t love politics. The taxi driver and businessman prefers to focus on community initiatives. But when the time came, he voted Labour as the lesser of two evils.
Then came the war in Gaza.
A month into the war, which a UN committee would later describe as a genocide, Suleman, and others at his local mosque, began a petition calling on their Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West Labour MP, Chi Onwurah, to vote for a ceasefire. He knew it was largely symbolic, but it represented something important: that the children of Palestine, who looked like his and were raised in the same faith, mattered.
“And the best she could do was abstain,” Suleman said. “That’s when I blew my top.”
Suleman was speaking before heading out canvassing in Arthur’s Hill, to the west of Newcastle. The city is often described as segregated: a white working-class east and a more diverse west, both long central to Labour’s base. But while Labour has spent years trying to win over “hero voters” in the east, it has been slower to reckon with a tectonic shift among Muslim voters.
Just like I said last night
The Greens will do well in all elections going forward because all the other main parties have looked the other way while Israel slaughtered nearly 100 thousand Palestinians.
25 thousand off those were children. Labour especially are ******
We know that the greens are chasing the islamist vote. As far as I'm concerned, they welcome to them. It won't however determine the outcome of his market.
There's one party currently that isn't treating immigrants like sub-humans. As long as that continues, they'll do well. Both this those immigrants and with people who know they're not sub-human.
No idea what you are referencing. If it's illegal immigrants, letting them stay and giving them lots of free stuff, it's not a winning tactic outside of twatter.
Greens gone drify, quite an interesting move. Dave has had a recent serious case of foot in mouth tbf, it's promising to fall apart earlier than anticipated.
However, one would have thought they would be doing okay in this weekends council elections. If they blow out in them, it will be over before it started. I am hoping to get some more lays away.
However, one would have thought they would be doing okay in this weekends council elections. If they blow out in them, it will be over before it started. I am hoping to get some more lays away.
Had a few quid on the greens at 12ish. My instinct is that the narrative is trying to make it slightly less painful than it probably will be for labour. I'm not that confident of greens being accurately reflected in polling, which probably isn't tremendously accurate for locals anyway. Motivation and turnout obviously critical.
Labour will only improve from here until the next GE as Reform is exposed as a protest vote and Starmer is replaced with a more charismatic and proactive leader. 4.2 as the biggest party at the next GE is big.
Don't you think it's Labour that have been exposed ? Or are they keeping all the good stuff for later ?
400+ MPs and people in the movement craving for someone who isn't even an MP, and previously failed !
400+ MPs and people in the movement craving for someone who isn't even an MP, and previously failed !
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