Has the betting got the Gorton by election completely wrong?

No idea, 50s maybe

Crikey, I’ve just looked, he’s only 61!!!

The world is run by geriatrics which is a big worry. Being one myself, I know only too well how ones energy and enthusiasm for work diminishes after 70yo. There is an official retirement age for a reason but it does not seem to apply to World leaders.

Keith isn't actually running the country is he? People like him and Biden are just fronts/enablers, they aren't actually running the operation.

Farage is the opposite, arguably he has too much control. There's no perfect option in politics though, even the greatest had their flaws.

Money piling on Labour today, Reform drifting.

Mad right wing backer needs to get labour shorter
to help refuk chances,

Gaining news time via manipulation of betting meerkats!

UK - By-Elections -- 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election

10 Runners            £494,806 Matched

			100.7%		96.4%
Green	1.6	1.61	1.62		1.63	1.64	1.65	£322,385
	£45	£2	£9		£8	£25	£27
Reform	4.6	4.7	4.8		5	5.1	5.2	£105,156
	£75	£15	£1		£13	£17	£14
Labour	5.8	5.9	6		7	7.4	7.6	£49,067
	£10	£17	£12		£23	£2	£1
Advance UK	300	310	320		750	880	890	£2,194
	£52	£10	£3		£2	£1	£10
Workers Party of Britain	500	700	1000		-	-	-	£1,919
	£2	£1	£25
Conservative	240	250	300		380	400	540	£5,267
	£30	£5	£5		£1	£50	£1
Liberal Democrats	150	190	240		260	270	280	£8,379
	£3	£2	£3		£10	£37	£47
Libertarian	600	700	1000		-	-	-	£191
	£6	£1	£114
SDP	500	610	1000		-	-	-	£104
	£1	£4	£110
Rejoin EU	620	700	1000		-	-	-	£144
	£4	£1	£109

9 days to go. Easily enough time for the government to squeeze in another balls-up

Feb 17, 2026 -- 9:44AM, yak hunt wrote:

Money piling on Labour today, Reform drifting.

Yeah, this probably isn't helping:

The campaign manager backing Reform UK's candidate in Gorton and Denton said he "would never touch a Jewish woman", and downplayed the number of Jews killed in the Holocaust

Adam Mitula, who the party’s interim campaign manager in Tameside, Greater Manchester, and is currently canvassing with candidate Matt Goodwin for the upcoming by-election, made the comments on social media in July 2024.

I get the raging bias, but outright lying from k hunt. weird.

and these are actually drifting

They had drifted when he posted, you can see up ticks in
your graph. Then the money comes the other way and go back in.

Greens bound to drift if labour come in, and the closer their odds are
then the better chance refuk have of winning, (if odds
are not deliberately manipulated)

Still a fascinating heat

Always interesting to look at odds at time, like when
somebody says they are backing at 5.6 and actual price is 5.2
and know how much has been traded in past hour or so, as
the graphs really are not accurate, as has been pointed
out previously, with examples.

guess bottom line is reform will get around 30% but can only win if both greens and labour are between 25 and 30 rather than one of them getting 35 cos left wing voters don't know whichvtheir best bet is here. could be a lot of similar big city seats come the general election

In Runcorn there was a swing from what people still call left wing to right wing. Of course, a lot has happened since then, none of it good for the incumbent.

There is the motivation factor too, and perhaps the weather, the way things are going on that front!

I suppose the inferred upswing in Green polling hasn't been tested in a major election at the ballot box either. It could be another youthquake

The market has the right order for me, it's a very high bar for Reform with regard to the make up of the seat, and other developments. But not impossible.

Who on earth would change their vote based on what some random is accused of saying a long time ago. Absolutely nobody! All political parties have nutters attached to them.

How many people have ever voted, never mind changed their vote.

Proportional to age isn't it. Well established trene, people are more inclined to vote as they age. That's why it will be pretty interesting to see if the uplift in 'green' polling is reflected in real voting. For me there's shades of the so called youthquake, as I mentioned before. People who live on twatter really do think that it's reflective of the real world.

trend

2 of my sons age 28 and 30  never bothered voting in the past but have joined political partys this year ,they have also said most of their friends have joined partys .

Politics is no different to specials, it's all about motivation. First you have to have a party or purpose that you want to vote for, second you have to think there's a realistic  prospect of winning.

For me ruk have crossed the rubicon now for the second element. They have a realistic prospect of winning. That is very significant, not just in terms of vote motivation, but in regard to getting people involved in the ground, funding/donations, good candidates, airtime and credibility. That's why, of course, the May elections are a critical test/line in the sand.

Crossing the rubicon is a signal of intent from which
there is no return, do or die.

Refuk hardly in that position.


Too many kids happy to fork out £25, and some of these
are not political parties but limited companies singing
Ker ching at all the gullibles looking for democracy
but without a say in how "their party“ is run

https://pollingreport.uk/seats/E14001251

Labour 35.5%
Reform 27.5%
Green 20%
Con 7%

UK - By-Elections -- 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election

10 Runners            £609,063 Matched

			102.4%		99.7%
Green	1.54	1.55	1.56		1.58	1.59	1.6	£406,609
	£50	£53	£24		£9	£124	£2,073
Reform	5	5.1	5.2		5.3	5.4	5.5	£116,970
	£8	£35	£17		£11	£19	£44
Labour	5.5	5.6	5.7		6	6.2	6.4	£59,475
	£10	£12	£2		£14	£21	£13
plus 7 more runners not listed above, at odds of over 100

Green 22%
Reform 20%
Lab 18%
Con 3%
Rejoin 2%
LD 2%
Libertarian 1%
SDP 1%

Undecided 31%

www.omnisis.co.uk/poll-result/constituency-polling-for-by-election-in-gorton-and-denton/

Three squeeze questions of undecided voters

"if the only parties that could win were", and name two of the three main contenders



The Green vs Reform squeeze is 33% Green, 19% Reform

The Green vs Labour squeeze is 27% Green, 16% Labour

The Labour vs Reform squeeze is 27% Labour, 20% Reform

Looking over the tables and figures, it looks as though 30% could win this in a very close race.

Reform voters often slow to admit there intentions, Greens could be difficult to get out depends if its wet as the younger vote cant be arsed with coats, Labour cannot win this in a month of sundays.

In a close contest, always back the one who is the biggest price. On the election night itself, volatility on the exchange market is almost certain.

Looks like Green now. A strong labour seat in the past so going to reform will be a huge change for many.

Majority of Labour abandoners near me ( south wales ) have gone Reform, see greens as flash in the pan party bit like liberals, no substance.

In a close contest, always back the one who is the biggest price. On the election night itself, volatility on the exchange market is almost certain.

I'm trying out this strategy, I don't think Labour are as dead in the water as the (mostly reform supporting) Pundits are making out.

It's a very close contest, odds on that there will be big volatility on the night.

UK - By-Elections -- 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election

10 Runners            £681,753 Matched

				102.8%		100.1%
-£59.2	Green	1.47	1.48	1.5		1.51	1.52	1.54	£462,163
		£183	£160	£1,390		£29	£249	£8
-£139.75	Reform	4.2	4.4	4.5		4.7	4.8	4.9	£124,488
		£6	£9	£10		£24	£33	£88
£671.75	Labour	7.6	7.8	8		8.4	8.6	9.2	£68,584
		£491	£593	£5		£4	£2	£9
-£139.75	Liberal Democrats	160	170	180		240	250	280	£12,464
		£66	£33	£9		£3	£1	£2
-£139.75	Conservative	270	280	300		400	540	580	£8,259
		£1	£41	£6		£48	£1	£1
-£139.75	Advance UK	520	530	1000		-	-	-	£2,800
		£39	£2	£43
-£139.75	Workers Party of Britain	700	800	1000		-	-	-	£2,038
		£1	£150	£111
-£139.75	Libertarian	260	340	1000		-	-	-	£199
		£1	£1	£159
-£139.75	SDP	700	720	1000		-	-	-	£566
		£150	£100	£98
-£139.75	Rejoin EU	260	340	1000		-	-	-	£191
		£1	£1	£205

Funnily enough, my profit/loss on each party currently is very similar to Escapee.

I've had a small saver on Reform but my main position remains on the Greens. It could be a valuable lesson in tactical voting for the left if those two get in each other's way.

There has been a lot of daft cash backing lib dems, but
they are not moving the dial.


Somebody must have a massive red, and somebody a massive
green.

Ditto tories,

Crazy stuff.

They've put up a finish second market, great,
but now we need a top 2 market, which would
be fascinating.

I'm also having a go at the voter turnout, got a few positions but its a thin market

UK - By-Elections -- Gorton and Denton - Voter Turnout

9 Runners            £1,692 Matched

			117.8%		72.8%
29.99% or Less	7	8.8	9		20	65	95	£303
	£16	£48	£8		£16	£2	£3
30.00-34.99%	3.55	6	6.8		10	65	70	£123
	£20	£8	£67		£10	£5	£1
35.00-39.99%	6	6.8	7		9.8	14.5	15	£0
	£50	£74	£5		£9	£10	£10
40.00-44.99%	3.65	3.7	3.8		6.4	9.8	12	£0
	£137	£13	£9		£24	£18	£3
45.00-49.99%	4	4.6	5.1		6.2	6.4	6.6	£474
	£10	£10	£55		£4	£8	£3
50.00-54.99%	5	6.6	6.8		10	10.5	11	£460
	£10	£76	£14		£5	£5	£3
55.00-59.99%	10	11.5	12		20	55	100	£140
	£1	£16	£25		£5	£3	£6
60.00-64.99%	14	15.5	16		150	550	1000	£108
	£2	£10	£16		£2	£1	£1
65.00% or more	30	36	40		490	500	1000	£84
	£17	£1	£10		£1	£3	£1

https://x.com/poll_checker/status/2024869911198085264/photo/1

Ward by ward omnisis poll.

try again

Story incoming regarding the Reform candidate Matt Goodwin involving inappropriate behaviour regarding a young female colleague.

That's just a rite of passge to get on the right wing ticket now isn't it?

The Guardian have the story allegedly. Rumour control says that Goodwin is considering resigning from the election. Farage and co trying to go to court to stop Guardian running story.

Labour Press
@labourpress
·
58m
Confidence update: Matt Goodwin turned his replies off this afternoon.

Just wait until 'the guardian' runs the story about David Paulden scamming women who weren't happy with their bodies.

Or possibly they are the typical massive far left hypocrites over there, and will simply ignore it.

Oh, ffs he's tying again

Absolutely desperate

All of the parties will be dredging up the lowest of dirty tactics ever seen in a UK election. I have no idea about the constituency. Never been there in 80 years but I would not be surprised to see a big turnout after all of the hype. Just look at how many turned up for a Southwell novice stakes on a cold windy night! Without CH running they would have struggled to get 800.

Green out from sub 1.4 to 1.66 and labour in from 12 to 6 over the last 2 days

UK - By-Elections -- 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election

10 Runners            £865,614 Matched

			102.1%		99.8%
Green	1.62	1.63	1.65		1.67	1.68	1.69	£593,010
	£51	£17	£318		£197	£4	£207
Reform	4	4.1	4.2		4.3	4.4	4.5	£151,362
	£21	£26	£49		£20	£8	£113
Labour	5.7	5.8	5.9		6	6.2	6.4	£90,016
	£2	£37	£35		£8	£11	£78
plus 7 more runners not listed above, at odds of over 100

GRN - 28%
LAB - 28%
REF - 27%
CON - 6%
LD - 4%
Other - 6%

Via Opinium, 401 sample, 16–24 Feb

Perfect opinion polls for refuk.

Horrendous for lab/green trying to get tactical votes.

6%tories,...know what to do

4% lib dems... Don't know what to do...

It is a perfect split for Reform but they have other issues. First of all, it appears that they may be very near their peak voting here and 27% isn't going to win. They also appear to have failed to convert the 7.9% tory GE vote. If it is still around 6%, a good chance tories will save their deposit (apparently candidate well thought of). The biggest problem Reform will have is getting out their vote in a constituency that they have no real history in.

They will turn out, or more likely than others.

Lab, green got the problems getting their vote out

Everybody wants to vote for the winner....!!!

For me, Green have the biggest problem getting their vote out if it's targeted at a younger voting section.

Something to ponder. Starmer visited the constituency a few hours after the verification of postal votes took place.

I think the green vote is motivated though. It's the Not Labour vote, and if they still think that* then the news of Labour gains and confidence will be a motivating factor, obviously as well as the thought of Reform slipping through the middle. The "who don't you want to win" could be the single most compelling factor in this one.


*Labour have made some proper left-wing noises in the last couple of weeks so the Greens might see some fade soon, but this might come too quick for that.

Nothing screams left wing more than sharing government inside information with a multimillionaire paedophile.

Elon?

I remember when the Green party were all about the environment.

Now they're just yet another Bonkers party.

Apparently, Reform HQ are saying that they don't expect to win and their own data has them 6 points behind Greens. No mention of Labour.

The Britain Predicts final forecast for Gorton and Denton, complete with ranges:

GRN: 31% (25-38%)
REF: 30% (30-33%)
LAB: 29% (22-34%)

Agree Sir Norbert. Well meaning environmentalists they are not. Any clues about turnout yet?

There is another factor here and that is a vote for Greens is a vote to get rid of Starmer as Labour leader, and if there is any constituency in the country where that is a big motivation it is this one

Bit of apparent  cash for the greens,

Prices have been fairly steady, and hard to know
what could actually trigger such a move at this time
unless it's simply the mad right wing manipulator
beginning to unwind their position.?

Well, a couple of hours till polls close. Everything still far from clear of course but I am becoming more certain, reading todays on the ground reports that Reform won't win. They needed everything to drop correctly for them and hopefully win in a three way photo finish, helped by increased differential turnout in Denton. No sign that has happened.

A low turnout suits, or a high turnout, although high potentially suited green too.

I still see all 3 battling, and likely all have hope.

Quite a fascinating little by election.



Boxes will arrive then it's finding trusted sources to leak
a few details from experienced count observers...

Half an hour to vote

Green 1.44
refuk 5.50
Lab 6.8

..

UK - By-Elections -- 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election

10 Runners            £1,108,169 Matched

			102.1%		100.2%
Green	1.4	1.42	1.43		1.44	1.45	1.46	£758,733
	£105	£982	£10		£20	£87	£1,616
Reform	5.5	5.6	5.7		5.8	5.9	6	£194,689
	£11	£12	£3		£8	£19	£10
Labour	6.8	7	7.2		7.4	7.6	7.8	£123,397
	£24	£29	£12		£4	£6	£1
plus 7 more runners not listed above, at odds of over 100

1.43
5.7
7.2

Just froth...

Polls closed.

UK - By-Elections -- 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election - 2nd place

10 Runners            £18,845 Matched

			104.4%		90.4%
Reform	1.57	1.6	1.72		1.75	1.76	1.78	£12,709
	£15	£222	£304		£2	£5	£66
Green	4.5	5	5.1		6.8	7	-	£2,821
	£12	£4	£4		£2	£1
Labour	1.8	3.8	3.85		5.4	5.5	6.4	£3,156
	£250	£5	£11		£8	£3	£2
plus 7 more runners not listed above, at odds of over 100

Now there is no incentive to manipulate the meerkat

1.37 g
7.2 r
6.4 l
..

Reform drop to 3rd in the market

UK - By-Elections -- 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election

10 Runners            £1,121,199 Matched

			102.1%		98.2%
Green	1.33	1.34	1.35		1.36	1.37	1.38	£769,190
	£35	£75	£132		£23	£260	£302
Reform	7.8	8	8.2		10	10.5	11	£196,061
	£44	£2	£6		£2	£13	£25
Labour	6.2	6.4	6.6		6.8	7	7.2	£124,598
	£37	£4	£7		£48	£49	£3
plus 7 more runners not listed above, at odds of over 100

Damian lyons Lowe

For survation


Polls are now closed now in Gorton & Denton  - here’s some perspective on the potential results when they arrive in the early hours of tomorrow morning.

Turnout: 

As with Caerphilly, we would expect turnout today to be at least in line with but more likely in excess of that seen in the prior national election here. In a stark change to the General,  3 parties have been genuinely in contention here, and the respective strengths of their get out the vote operations will have been able to make a difference to the stated vote shares in opinion polls.

With polls in mind - what can the 2 polls published in Gorton & Denton tell us about tomorrow's results?

Polling Averages and MOE

I have been able to review the two published polls from British Polling Council (BPC) members this week and consider what’s going on in the constituency - the comments below are based on that published data:

Firstly we can put the candidates/parties within the following voting intention ranges once margin of error is applied:



=>As you can see - one of Labour / Green / Reform could have won here today, if factoring in the margins of error.

Why do the opinion polls have the Greens doing so well  in a historic Labour Stronghold?

Today was not a straightforward Reform vs Labour vs Green battle: the contest today in Gorton and Denton was essentially Reform vs Labour vs a Left/Pro Gaza Coalition.

The Green Party’s prospects here (13.2% of the vote at the 2024 General Election) were given a turbo boost early in the campaign by the decision of The Workers Party (10.3% of the GE 2024 vote) to not stand and instead endorse the Green candidate. According to party sources, the WP’s lead candidate Shahbaz Sarwar, a councillor in Longsight  has been working their patch endorsing the Greens and explaining why.

Further,  “Your Party” co-founded by Jeremy Corbyn and Zara Sultana were in disagreement about whether to stand a candidate in G&D or not. The party then declined to put a candidate up or officially endorse one, however both Sultana and Corbyn have since recommended their supporters vote for the Greens’ Hannah Spencer. It’s worth noting that at the peak of Corbyn’s 2017 surge, 64% of Denton & Reddish and 76% of the Manchester Gorton constituency voted Labour.

Left/Pro Gaza Coalition

With then a combined theoretical starting point of 23.5% of the 2024 past vote, and support from Labour’s former leader, this Green-led “Unity Ticket” of Greens + WP started in great shape to head to a winning position - which according to the polls above could technically be as low as 25% in this competitive three-way contest.

A coordinated Left/Pro Gaza Coalition is the most direct threat to Labour’s chances of defending the seat, and is apparently a natural alternative for Labour’s 2024 voter base (38% of decided Labour 2024 voters had decided to vote Green by last week, according to Omnisis), meanwhile, Reform, who have continued to top national opinion polls throughout February will have certainly topped the white, working class Denton wards today while chipping away at some of Labour’s ‘24 vote share there.

Polling suggested several demographic headwinds for Labour:

Omnisis’ cross breaks are helpful - The Greens’ support is strongest among younger voters (40% of 18-24s and 34% of 25-34s) and among private renters (30%). Reform, by contrast, is heavily age-skewed older - support rising to 30% among 55–64s and 36% among 65-74s - and performs best among homeowners (26%).

Labour sits awkwardly in the middle: it does comparatively better among older voters than the Greens (e.g. 17% vs 6% among 65–74s, and 28% vs 4% among 75+ but looks exposed among younger cohorts where the Greens are clearly ahead.

Geography reinforces that story. To the west, the Greens look best placed: Levenshulme (40% of all likely voters will vote Green) and Longsight (27%) are their strongest. Over in often white/working class Denton, Reform is the primary challenger: Denton North East (43%) and Denton South (42%) are where they surge. Labour is competitive in some places (notably Denton West 23% and Longsight 23%) but doesn’t obviously “own” either half of the seat in the way you’d want in a low-threshold three-way race.

Education and profile effects then do the rest. The polling shows the Greens are strongest among higher-education groups, while Reform’s coalition leans more toward lower-qualified and older homeowners - exactly the two ends that make a three-way contest volatile. In that context, Labour’s central problem is straightforward: it can lose votes simultaneously to a Green-led protest or unity pitch in the inner wards (Manchester/Gorton) and to Reform in the outer Tameside/Denton wards - and the arithmetic of a tight three-way makes that a potentially decisive split.

Uniquely among the published polls, the Omnisis sample clearly showed capture of the correct shares of Muslim voters in the constituency, who are crucial in at least 3 of 7 seat wards - particularly Longsight (42%) Levenshulme (41%), and Burnage (39%)  In a contest framed around both Gaza and left/protest mobilisation, that creates obvious upside for a Green-led unity pitch. It also means Reform’s candidate profile could energise anti-Reform tactical voting in those same areas - raising turnout and intensifying the polarisation. Omnisis showed Muslim voters opting for the Greens over Labour by a 2:1 ratio.

Without calling a winner - what would it mean strategically if the results broadly match the polling averages?

For the Greens: The Green “wasted vote / split the progressives” psychology shifts in their favour.

If the Greens land anywhere near the polling range - and especially if they win or run Labour very close - they will go into the local elections energised, able to argue credibly that voting Green in Labour areas isn’t simply a gesture. Crucially, Gorton & Denton isn’t unique: there are lots of urban Westminster seats across England’s major cities with the same ingredients - younger, renting, graduate-heavy areas sitting alongside more traditional Labour neighbourhoods - where a Green “credible challenger” narrative can bite. And in a number of those places, sizable Muslim communities mean Gaza has the potential to act as an additional mobilisation and realignment issue - creating a clearer lane for a Green-led protest vote where Labour’s coalition is under strain. The caveat is that this particular contest has had unusually favourable coalition conditions - a left/pro-Gaza unity dynamic and high-profile encouragement to coalesce. Replicating the result as effectively elsewhere may depend on similarly aligned circumstances rather than being automatically transferable.

For Reform: proof of concept in unfriendly territory.

For Reform, this seat was nowhere near their natural hunting ground in 2024 - this was their 439th best seat - and they have no real local record of electoral success. A solid performance (let alone a victory through a split progressive vote) would still mark a step forward: this would be evidence Reform can post credible numbers outside their core map when conditions are right and the race fragments. It also reinforces the idea that Reform don’t need to “own” a place historically to be competitive in the current cycle.

For Labour: the “only Labour can stop Reform” message takes a big hit if their share is below the Greens.
If Labour were to score below the Greens (so publicly) - - it dents the argument that progressive voters should line up behind Labour as the sole bulwark against Reform. It also invites a round of leadership questions, including (probably unfairly) whether the Prime Minister should have allowed Andy Burnham to stand - the kind of counterfactual that will surface quickly when a seat that “should” be safe becomes competitive.

A Labour win tomorrow would of course provide some temporary relief for the Prime Minister and for the party’s national messaging: it would allow Labour to argue that, even under intense pressure, the seat held - and that the “only Labour can stop Reform” frame still has traction. A narrow win however would not erase the underlying vulnerability exposed by this campaign. Labour’s central problem in seats similar to this is that it can lose votes simultaneously to a Green-led protest or unity pitch and also to Reform.

Net: A fairly tight three-way outcome will say something material about coalition politics on the left, Reform’s potential to expand their reach, and Labour’s vulnerability to being squeezed from both sides.

Reform UK chairman David Bull tells Newsnight that if Labour had fielded Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham as its candidate, the party "would have won".

"But Keir Starmer didn't want him on the pitch. This is all about the preservation of Keir Starmer. It was a very bad mistake by the Labour Party," Bull says.

Of this party's electoral chances, Bull says the Green Party and Labour are "raging against each other" - and there is a possibility Reform can go "straight through the middle".

Huge drop in Reform odds

UK - By-Elections -- 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election

10 Runners            £1,149,690 Matched

			101.5%		99.6%
Green	1.51	1.52	1.53		1.54	1.58	1.59	£788,133
	£35	£16	£2		£15	£50	£535
Reform	3.65	3.75	3.8		3.85	3.95	4	£201,156
	£182	£448	£96		£4	£3	£16
Labour	10	10.5	11		11.5	14.5	16.5	£129,052
	£97	£4	£106		£51	£1	£1
plus 7 more runners not listed above, at odds of over 100

1.53 g
3.8 r
10.5 l

Boxes arriving?

Earlier we heard from Green Party leader Zack Polanksi, who called the Greens' challenge in Gorton and Denton "pretty remarkable".

Now, a source from the party tells the PA news agency that the Greens have given Labour "the scare of their lives", and expressed confidence that "the Green vote has held up well".

The source tells PA: "We feel like we've thrown everything at this election. We've given it our all.

"I think at the very least we can say we've given Labour the scare of their lives in what not so long ago was considered one of their safest seats in the country."

The Market says GREEEEEEEEN win

UK - By-Elections -- 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election

10 Runners            £1,167,442 Matched

			103.1%		100.4%
Green	1.16	1.18	1.19		1.2	1.21	1.22	£800,658
	£12	£64	£207		£151	£10	£11
Reform	9.2	9.4	10		11	12.5	19	£202,866
	£2	£22	£37		£9	£5	£5
Labour	11	11.5	12		12.5	13	13.5	£132,568
	£20	£2	£13		£20	£15	£11
plus 7 more runners not listed above, at odds of over 100

1.16
10.5
22

Refuk 1.44 for 2nd plaice

The Conservative Party don’t expect to get their deposit back in the Gorton and Denton by-election

[@CharlieSimpsonA]

1.3
6.4
12

Looking like it's all over, I'm off


G'luck

i doubt if the Tories had any serious hopes in this constituency but the Lib Dems must be very disappointed to be in fifth. For years they did well in by elections. Meanwhile Rejoin EU got less than 100 votes! Whether or not you support them, the Greens got their strategy right.The other message is that less than half of registered voters found any reason to Vote at all despite all of the media hype. 50 years ago the idea of winning a seat with 14000 votes would have been laughable.

A great result for the Greens, who clearly received the bloc Muslim vote who turned out in numbers for them. Reform and Labour received roughly level of support as in constituency polls, but no one saw Greens winning by that margin.

Gorton and Denton by-election result:

GRN: 40.7% (+27.5)
REF: 28.7% (+14.7)
LAB: 25.4% (-25.3)
CON: 1.9% (-6.0)
LDEM: 1.8% (-2.1)

Green GAIN from Labour.

Green + lab = 66%

So refuk at 29% was never enough, needed 34%
and even split lab/green,... I suspect a good few tories
and lib dems voted green..

The Polls didn't seem to get it right on this election

(especially the Con & Lib numbers)

yak hunt

25 Feb 26 10:26

GRN - 28%
LAB - 28%
REF - 27%
CON - 6%
LD - 4%
Other - 6%

Via Opinium, 401 sample, 16–24 Feb

and

yak hunt

26 Feb 26 11:24


The Britain Predicts final forecast for Gorton and Denton, complete with ranges:

GRN: 31% (25-38%)
REF: 30% (30-33%)
LAB: 29% (22-34%)

Those ranges are not far out, but quite a big margin
built in.

Such small poll sizes come with large margins



We need more by elections!!!

When you are down to low single digit polling, it's almost impossible to be accurate, a few votes here and there can skew things badly. The Reform and Labour figures were certainly in the ball park but the Greens massively overperformed their polling numbers.

I guess voters who felt that turning out for a 6%
party might as well be a bit naughty instead.

Has hallmark of lib dem and tories giving green a helping
hand to damage refuk and labour/starmer.

It is what it is, and lib dems likely very enthused by the result
despite a dreadful poll, as it bodes well for the chosen
party, and they will be in that position often enough.

Refuk failing to hit 30 in an unhindered run will go
down well with everybody other than refuk.

They are not going to be a 6% party at the next election.  They'll be nearer 15%

The vast majority of posters on here have no understanding of how difficult the situation is for young adults.  They'll vote Green

100%


There's an expectation that the Green vote will evaporate when it comes to a GE. Times have changed kids. It's not red v blue any more. Too many people have been failed by the system and want to see someone offering a bit of hope.

Should add unfair to difficult.  Only the Greens are understanding and aren't patronising towards them.

The fact that their immigration policies seem mad to me will have little effect when they are the only party who young people can look to and see some understanding.  And that will only increase unless one of the major parties recognises that and changes policies and rhetoric

Feb 28, 2026 -- 11:15AM, CLYDEBANK29 wrote:

The vast majority of posters on here have no understanding of how difficult the situation is for young adults.

wow, just seen The Greens are 6/1 to win the most seats at the next GE.

and matched as low as 3.9!! with £16/£8 matched at 1000!!

Here, Reform at 2.98, Labour 3.3. The Greens at 7, Conservatives 8.8 puts it all into context.

Because the election is that far away some prices are a bit nuts.  Restore Britain 22   Reform look big to me

Restore Britain's price reminds of the Yank, whose name I forget, who was a similar price for London Mayor