Labour Leader Markets

Year Keir Starmer replaced as Labour Leader Rules

MARKET INFORMATION

For further information please see Rules & Regs.


When will Keir Starmer be permanently replaced as Labour Party leader? We will settle this market on the date the Labour Party officially announce their new Permanent Party Leader after Keir Starmer. Temporary/interim leaders do not count. If a temporary/interim leader is appointed we will wait until the date of the announcement of the Permanent Leader before settling. This market will be void if the Party Leader dies while in office. If the Party Leader is unable to fulfil his/her role due to health reasons and is therefore permanently replaced this market will be void

Given that even if he resigned today and temporary replacements don't count.
IMHO, it's almost a zero chance that labour would just announce a permanent replacement without some sort
of internal election process. This would take weeks, Therefore I've been laying 2025.

And I'm tempted to start laying 2026 at it's current odds on as a trade into January or February.

"Given that even if he resigned today and temporary replacements don't count.
IMHO, it's almost a zero chance that labour would just announce a permanent replacement without some sort
of internal election process."

No.

There is a precedent: unopposed succession with emergency procedures: If Starmer resigned tomorrow and the NEC invoked emergency rules allowing an unopposed candidate to be "announced" immediately without going through the full membership ballot.

Gordon Brown succeeded Blair in 2007 unopposed, it took around a month. Way too much uncertainty around this to be laying over 10.0 but it is your funeral....

More likely Badenoch to be replace it seems. One loathsome cretin has been backed in, Katie Lam. There wasn’t much publicity that I saw for her calls for ‘repatriation’ of settled families in the UK who had already been given citizenship.

Unbelievably she herself is the descendant of immigrants who fled the nazis pre war, some of her family not so lucky ended up in Auschwitz.

As far as I remember it came out years later that Blair, Brown and Prescott brokered and signed a behind the scenes
deal in 1994 which gave Brown the chancellor job and leader succession rights in exchange for not challenging Blair for
leadership, and Prescott got a "seat on the board" as the Unions representative in exchange for the big unions agreeing
and going along with the plan.

Maybe there is a pre agreed succession, but Rayner's dethroning and lengthy replacement process could be interpreted
as a sign there is no such behind the scenes deal as per Blair, Brown & Prescott.


Who knows, anything can happen.

G'luck.

Perhaps but all the weird crap going on behind the scenes with Mcsweeney makes me extremely nervous about laying big cash here.

I have heard that the powers-that-be want a Streeting coronation. That may be a fantasy but its coming from fairly sober political/journo types.

Perhaps, history doesn't repeat, it rhymes.

But all the weird crap you hear in the news about Morgan McSweeney makes me wonder if there isn't some kind of planned succession of Wes Streeting going on.

That might be pure fantasy, I'm not a Westminster insider. But that is coming from normally sober people who are Westminster insiders.

We know the budget is going to be toxic, but not how toxic.

However, the sequence of events that would lead to a new permanent PM being in place before Xmas is a very long shot. Certainly longer than the current odds.

Even if Rachel from accounts is forced to jump, Starmer will retain the nominal support of sly, itv and auntie. Which is why I could not even back next year on this market. It's quite possible he will be propped up, albeit he's already mortally wounded, before the budget.

Yes we need a Market on the Chancellor being Replaced (GORDON BROWN)

Can't see new permanent leader this year

Even if he resigned, we would be in Teresa may land
and people need to understand what resign means.

He's not going to resign before his first big budget on the 26th November.

How long did Truss last after her disastrous "Fiscal Event"?
She couldn't even call it a budget because she refused to let the Office of Budget Responsibility check it
added up.

If the labour MP's vote to pass the budget on the 26th, then two weeks minimum before he resigns after that.
Who knows, the markets might even like the budget.

He's not going to resign before his first big budget on the 26th November.

How long did Truss last after her disastrous "Fiscal Event"?
She couldn't even call it a budget because she refused to let the Office of Budget Responsibility check it
added up.

If the labour MP's vote to pass the budget on the 26th, then two weeks minimum before he resigns after that.
Who knows, the markets might even like the budget.

Interest rate cuts look locked in.

He needs to avoid losing them.

Need a month meerkat not a year one!

Starmer replaced by 1st April meerkat added.

Politics, UK party leaders, menu.

Somebody was keen, lol.

Note, in rules meerkat void if ill health causes replacement...


When will Keir Starmer be officially and permanently replaced as Labour Party leader? We will settle this market on the date the Labour Party officially announce their new Permanent Party Leader after Keir Starmer. If Starmer is replaced before April 1st 00:00 2026 GMT this market will be settled as yes. Temporary/interim leaders do not count. If a temporary/interim leader is appointed we will wait until the date of the announcement of the Permanent Leader before settling. This market will be void if the Party Leader dies while in office. If the Party Leader is unable to fulfil his/her role due to health reasons and is therefore permanently replaced this market will be void

1 April is pretty tight if he resigned today!

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn03938/

..

Sets out current rules for new leader of labour party
in event of vacancy and also in event of challenge.

There are links in that article to Labour procedures
as they stand.

Of course any timetables would only be set out should they
be required.

Why is Ed Milliband shortening ?
He had his 5 years last decade and was hardly a roaring success.

Dunno, in absence of Andy Burnham who would surely
be favourite, the market will look to find anybody
that support may coalesce around.

Former leaders may become caretakers, but market
rules need to be consulted.

I'd expect if starmer was to stand down then
a seat would be found for Burnham, there is already
an offer, and he would not be prevented from standing
despite cost of mayoral election.

But, anything might happen

And, with this bunch of incompetents, it certainly will.

1st April meerkat seems to have caught a few.

Feb 5, 2026 -- 3:27PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

1st April meerkat seems to have caught a few.

No surely must be free money? How on earth can a new permanent leader be in place by 1st April?

Well it was tight, but some folk took evens.




There's a month meerkat been added too.

Politics, UK party leaders, month keir starmer replaced

5 options

Jan - march 26
April - June 26
July - Sept 26
Oct - Dec 26
2027 or later

Trying to post the markets but post is being censored

test

UK - Party Leaders -- Month Keir Starmer replaced as Labour Leader

5 Runners            £218 Matched

			134.2%		66.1%
January-March 2026	5	5.4	6.2		20	-	-	£110
	£82	£39	£20		£15
April-June 2026	1.75	2.2	2.5		4	4.5	6	£8
	£571	£227	£101		£10	£50	£1
July-September 2026	2.12	2.8	3		7.6	10	-	£0
	£6	£167	£83		£93	£93
October-December  2026	2.76	8	8.8		48	50	-	£0
	£5	£53	£28		£2	£35
2027 or later	2.6	2.9	3		4.8	4.9	5	£100
	£385	£93	£33		£3	£19	£323

How odd

Ah it's worked, well done.

Forum won't accept the April 1st market

test header

UK - Party Leaders -- Starmer Replaced by April 1st 2026?

2 Runners            £8,927 Matched

Starmer Replaced by April 1st 2026?
Matched: £10,965
back lay

Yes

6.6
£3
10
£7

No

1.11
£1,063
1.18
£49

If there is not a space between the "No" and the closing bold tag "[/b]", then the censor eats the post. (probably because it thinks it spells No...b)

UK - Party Leaders -- Starmer Replaced by April 1st 2026?

2 Runners            £10,966 Matched

			104.8%		94.7%
Yes	6.4	6.6	6.8		10	10.5	11	£3,131
	£19	£3	£2		£7	£108	£42
No	1.06	1.1	1.11		1.18	1.19	1.2	£7,835
	£100	£443	£1,063		£61	£79	£174

UK - Party Leaders -- Starmer Replaced by April 1st 2026?

2 Runners            £10,966 Matched

			104.8%		94.7%
Yes	6.4	6.6	6.8		10	10.5	11	£3,131
	£19	£3	£2		£7	£108	£42
No	1.06	1.1	1.11		1.18	1.19	1.2	£7,835
	£100	£443	£1,063		£61	£79	£174

Someone happily thrown away £396 at 2.02 Yes.

needed a space between No and the closing bold tag [/b]
(As does this message to get past the censor)

Introduced to stop folk talking about a
forumite,... Unintended consequences, lol.

The 2026 Labour Party Annual Conference will be held in Liverpool at the
ACC Liverpool venue from Sunday 27 to Wednesday 30 September 2026.

UK - Party Leaders
Starting soon

Next Labour leader



Ever optimistic from whoever frames the markets.

Next Labour leader seen a bit of action with Rayner, Milipede, and Burnham seemingly
attracting support. With 20% required it's going to be difficult
to get more than 3 candidates,... Not that I think those 3
are locked.

Streeting obviously fancies a crack at it, and shabana has been
one of the ministers to actually perform well in da house.

And a compromise candidate may yet emerge

Maybe we need a market for labour mps getting
onto the ballot by attracting 20% of mps.

Could be a proper money spinner like the April fool meerkat.

I think Rayners odds are far to short given her "Still Under Investigation" status at HMRC

Milliband is also notable, in from 200+ to 8, what's that about?

UK - Party Leaders -- Next Labour Leader

83 Runners            £198,914 Matched

			123.7%		89.1%
Angela Rayner	3.1	3.25	3.3		3.5	3.55	3.65	£28,514
	£10	£50	£20		£66	£148	£5
Wes Streeting	5	5.1	5.4		5.8	5.9	6	£29,296
	£10	£3	£11		£61	£1	£1
Ed  Miliband	7.4	7.6	7.8		9.4	9.6	9.8	£7,934
	£25	£2	£5		£15	£176	£28
Andy Burnham	10	10.5	11		15.5	16	17	£48,156
	£25	£5	£6		£1	£1	£2
Shabana Mahmood	12	12.5	13.5		19	19.5	24	£5,725
	£9	£7	£2		£2	£2	£3
Lucy Powell	23	25	26		29	30	32	£4,046
	£2	£2	£3		£1	£2	£2
Yvette Cooper	15	15.5	24		30	34	40	£12,804
	£2	£3	£2		£1	£2	£2
Alistair Cairns	10	10.5	20		25	26	28	£861
	£3	£2	£56		£6	£104	£6
David Lammy	44	46	50		85	90	100	£3,271
	£4	£2	£3		£4	£2	£2
Darren Jones	40	50	55		110	120	730	£4,599
	£1	£51	£11		£2	£2	£2
Bridget Phillipson	50	60	65		110	130	140	£6,180
	£2	£2	£2		£1	£3	£2
Peter Kyle	50	55	60		190	200	210	£2,076
	£1	£5	£2		£3	£4	£4
Sadiq Khan	70	75	80		150	760	980	£2,482
	£2	£1	£2		£2	£2	£2
John Healey	70	75	80		270	300	360	£606
	£4	£2	£3		£1	£3	£2
Lisa Nandy	85	90	100		320	330	450	£9,848
	£2	£1	£1		£4	£1	£3
Pat McFadden	46	65	70		430	460	490	£726
	£2	£5	£1		£2	£1	£2
plus 67 more runners not listed above, at odds of over 100

Not really a trader inner-outer unless I'm backing something early doors purely because I know the price will drop.


But I'm tempted into backing Miliband here. Those around him have huge question marks, he's one who could come in to offer a bit of a clean break. If the MPs are determined to get rid of Starmer but unsure of who can take the lead afterwards, I reckon he's the best of the rest and is at a decent and backable price.

Was Milliband not the one who made the 8mpassioned speech in a late night commons debate about the death toll which would ensue were we to step in in Syria?  His woke, wet, wimp diatribe swayed the house, the vote went down and we did nothing.  Absolutely nothing - allowing Putin a free hand in assisting Assad to brutalise, torture and murder masses of his people.
Heaven help us if he gets the job.  A born appeaser and loser imo.

And a lunatic to boot. We can't keep warm#
or make owt because of his rush to make next
to no difference to global carbon output.
Whoever gets it will be in bother soon enough.

Sir Shameless is 1.4 to go in 2026. His most testing period is between April and Sept 2026, probably conducive to the Labour Conference. Let's hope he resigns prior. He's just not up to the job since day 1 eg his attire was sponsored by a donor.

Ed Milliband was hopeless as Labour leader. His brother David should have been the leader but his popularity amongst Labour MPs was limited.

I don't follow politics like you guys and only pick up snippets here and there, but my understanding of David was that he was not yet ready for the position, hence the rejection, so he resigned and went on some foreign expedition, but the rumours I picked up were that he would always return and eventually, one-day, head the party. For some reason this has always stayed in the back of my mind waiting for the opportunity to have a punt. Maybe PoP has a point and if not now, it may not be too far away.

Sorry PoP, misread your post. Ed, from my perspective was hopeless, as I123 pointed out.

Some folk waking up to potential significance
of labour party conference.



I looked at David miliband too. Bit of a long shot, but
might be tradeable if there are no obvious candidates
stepping up, and he starts looking for a seat. A bit like
next manager in football, folk like to raise their profile
for other jobs.

An email has just gone round No 10 staff confirming that the PM has asked Jill Cuthbertson and Vidhya Alakeson to be acting chiefs of staff, with immediate effect.

Do we think the candidate listed as Alistair Cairns in next
Labour leader is the same guy as Alistair Carns in next prime
minister, or will betfair do something nasty?

Those Calling for Him to Go

    Anas Sarwar: The Scottish Labour leader became the most senior figure to call for Starmer's resignation, stating that the "distraction needs to end" and that the leadership in Downing Street must change to protect Labour's prospects in the upcoming May Scottish elections.
    Baroness Eluned Morgan: The Welsh Labour leader is widely expected to follow Sarwar in calling for the Prime Minister to step down.
    Brian Leishman: The Labour MP for Alloa and Grangemouth has stated that Starmer’s position is "untenable" and it is in the country's best interest for him to quit.

Those Backing Him

The UK Cabinet has made a co-ordinated effort to show support, emphasizing Starmer's mandate from the 2024 general election.

    Rachel Reeves: The Chancellor stated that Starmer is "turning the country around" and rebuilding Britain takes time.
    David Lammy: The Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary pledged full support, urging the party not to be distracted from its mission.
    Angela Rayner: Despite being viewed as a potential successor, she urged colleagues to "come together" and stated the PM has her "full support".
    Wes Streeting: The Health Secretary said Starmer "doesn't need to resign" and asked for the party to "give Keir a chance".
    Other Cabinet Supporters: Public statements of support have also been issued by Shabana Mahmood (Home Secretary), Yvette Cooper (Foreign Secretary), John Healey (Defence Secretary), Steve Reed (Housing Secretary), Bridget Phillipson (Education Secretary), Ed Miliband (Energy Secretary), and Douglas Alexander (Scottish Secretary).


AI generated ^^^

Operation save big dog 2.0?

The one positive thing for Starmer is the lack of even a half decent replacemnent. To me Yvette Cooper is most credible but only in comparison with all the rest. Much better to stick with Starmer and try to find someone unknown coming through the ranks that might be electable in 3 years times.

Next PM Female and not Ange..

Like it.  Save Big Dog 2.0. 

The most senior civil servant in Downing Street is negotiating his exit as part of a wider shake-up of Keir Starmer’s operation after one of the most dramatic 48 hours of the prime minister’s time in office, sources have told the Guardian.

Chris Wormald, the cabinet secretary, is understood to be negotiating the terms of his departure from No 10, which would make him the third senior member of staff to leave in recent days.

Starmer should show some backbone and tell the guy he can’t leave unless he resigns under which scenario and terms he will receive whatever his contract of employment dictates.  Negotiating the terms of his departure indeed.  What is he expecting?  A golden handshake for throwing his toys out if the pram?  What a joker.

Di Abbott says the only reason they are backing him , is so that he Takes the fall after the May elections

Makes sense TBH if he is replaced and they get hammered they are out of options

Maybe Di has been reading the forum

If so she will phsl at mad case quoting her.

Feb 6, 2026 -- 10:05PM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:

Not really a trader inner-outer unless I'm backing something early doors purely because I know the price will drop.But I'm tempted into backing Miliband here. Those around him have huge question marks, he's one who could come in to offer a bit of a clean break. If the MPs are determined to get rid of Starmer but unsure of who can take the lead afterwards, I reckon he's the best of the rest and is at a decent and backable price.

New Survation poll of net favourability for cabinet members has Miliband clear in the lead. Should be fap for next leader imo.

https://labourlist.org/2026/02/cabinet-league-table-february-2026/

..

Survation poll^^^