Official 2028 United Stated Presidential Election Thread (+Senate&House Elections)

I think the LA fires have done for Newsom?

He is getting blamed, really squirming when trying to defend himself. No one on the left bothered to defend him much.

He missed his chance I think. Should have just challenged Biden at start of primaries.

don j t not in the market?

Elissa Slotkin to give the Dem response to Trump's State of the Union address

Also I backed Mark Kelly@200

He was the one Obama wanted instead of Kamala last July

Trump Snr now listed at billy mountains, 5/1 second favourite, C'mon Betfair get him up!

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-third-term-white-house-methods-rcna198752

Of course Betfair won't care.

He should be added now he has expressed interest. Betfair should be facilitating betting on candidates in which there is interest, not getting involved in moral/ political stances. He is listed on US regulated sites and now UK ones.

What price would settle at ?

There is absolutely zero chance of Trump winning in 2028, but I guess it would be sub 100

Depends on where the mad right wing money takes it.

I'd expect sub 20 to begin.

what we need is a market for who will be potus on jan 21 2029 - there are a few things the don can try which don't necessarily involve winning the 2028 election

I'd probably be a backer at above 100 to start with. My guess would be 20-50. I think it is all bluff but he might keep it going for a few years so he doesn't appear a lame duck.

Well, Smarkets had a crazy market at the last election where only one result was possible but the extreme right wing MAGA nuts kept piling on the guaranteed loser. It was money for nothing. Hopefully they will come up with something similar.

he might keep it going for a few years so he doesn't appear a lame duck.

yes he will want to continue to strike fear into the hearts of republican lawmakers

Mar 31, 2025 -- 5:12PM, blank wrote:

He should be added now he has expressed interest. Betfair should be facilitating betting on candidates in which there is interest, not getting involved in moral/ political stances. He is listed on US regulated sites and now UK ones.

They're so scared ever since the 2020 post election night drama and all the complaints.

That must be it. They should have a magic button similar to cashout that lets people back 'any other' more easily, that way instead of people backing Trump at 5/1 on oddschecker they could back him at the same price on here, and get all the other candidates to be added included in their bet.

Betfair could easily offer a side market

Trump not to run
Trump to run and lose
Trump to run and win
Trump to seize power anyway

...

The $markets market

Donald Trump to serve as president for 9+ years by end of 2030
No 1.12
Yes 7.4

That's a much better market than Trump to win the 2028 elections. Betfair should do that.

...But Betfair should nonetheless really add Trump to the election market.

If you lay everybody quoted, you are backing trump.

Patience is key, of course at current prices.

i still say it should be who will be potus on 21/01/2029

Looks like Chump is determined to make an omlette!

Stoopid speculation that he will be running in 2028. He will be gawn by the midterms. 25th!



As egg prices have reached record highs, about a third of American consumers have stopped buying them in response to the rising costs, a new study suggests.

According to research from Clarify Capital, 34% of Americans have stopped purchasing eggs as prices for the breakfast staple are becoming less affordable. On average, these consumers say they won’t begin buying eggs again until costs come down to $5 or less for a carton.

The report compared the average price of eggs across all US states, observing a significant jump in 2018, when the average was $1.49. In 2025, that figure is sitting at about $5.18.

AOC is 2nd favourite 

I never wanted to get involved with this again but am over £500 red on her

Now wish I'd layed all the 1000s when they were 600-900

There's so many no hopers and impossibles in the market at 50 to 150 it's tempting to get stuck in.

Like you, I'm trying not to get involved, but there are opportunities.
I backed Trump Jr at 46 in January then laid him at 20 in early march. (27 currently)
I've not looked at it since then.

G'luck on AOC, you're on to a winner(IMHO) but you might be red on her quite a while because she's in the news a lot.

Betfair should put Trump in the market, he's declared his intention to run and he's got the power to suspend the constitution so he's got a greater than zero chance.

Newsom, Buttigieg and Pritzker almost certain to run, AOC way down in likelihood of running imo.

Buttigieg the favourite right now for me. I was cautious a few months ago when he was rumoured to be mulling MI gov or senate but now it looks very likely he is running for Prez. Second in polling and top without Harris, strong name ID granted but he won the debates and came a very close second in the early primaries in 2020, surely better positioned now.

Last time I asked about Trump they said they're not going to add him because he is ineligible, sounded quite definitive, they probably should have stated that right away.

Still loads of names they could add which would automatically push up the prices on everyone currently listed. Raimondo, Bannon, Abbott, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Byron Donalds, Jared Polis, Cooper, Stefanik, Burgum, Jamie Dimon. Layers are at the mercy of Betfair adding names.

2028 could be a repeat of 2024 (demented old man clings on to power to long and hastily replaced at the last moment by lame duck VP after ludicrous TV debate)

Last time I asked about Trump they said they're not going to add him because he is ineligible, sounded quite definitive, they probably should have stated that right away.

They're going to have to add him to the market at some point because he isn't going to step down voluntarily.
The constitutional 2 term limit is not worth the paper it is printed on.

This is a lesson in how to be a proper TDS bro, you have to believe every imaginary made up issue, like "Trump isn't going to step down", "there are fascists everywhere" etc. Classic TDS bro lesson.

Can't believe I could lay Bernie Sanders at sub 200. He will be 87 years old in 2028.

I think I layed him at 1,000 Pretty sure he ruled it out years ago, with his allies looking at a successor even in 2024. He has filed for re-election to the senate in 2030 though

Kemp's ruled out a 2026 Senate run despite GOP trying to get him to run, IG he thinks the 2026 midterms will be dire or he is looking at 2028.

Interesting. Kemp would need MAGA to completely implode, though couldn't rule that out lol

He would be the number 1 non MAGA Republican I think.

They added Zohran Momdani, who can't run as he was not born in the USA??

I can't see them refunding stakes on that, so may as well add someone else who is constitutionally barred.

I noticed that. He went to 1000 on the first day he was included but has started coming in a little as he generates headlines, and the layers don't have 1000x the capital that the backers have.

I guess it was a mistake by the Betfair traders and they didn't check he was eligible. They're probably not that informed. I asked for Rand Paul after his Iowa speech last month but they haven't added, but they have added Zuckerberg and Mamdani Lol, they have added a lot of names I request but it seems a lottery.

Still think Trump would be under 100 but it's probably cooled off a bit now he ended the talk about it.

Look at 'any other' in winning party, down to 15.5-18, but no obvious candidate for Musk's party in main market, a few of the celeb independents listed are more likely to run as dem, Massie probably not the one but that's probably why he has been added.

I guess it was a mistake by the Betfair traders and they didn't check he was eligible. They're probably not that informed

yep, that's it!

I suspect it was a cynical layer who got him added. Would it be that much of a headache to just void Mamdani bets at this point?

If Mamdani is left in there then Elon should be added too.

I saw Steve Bannon the other day saying Trump will have a 3rd term. That doesn't make it credible of course but the chatter about it continues.

It's not impossible for the constitution to be changed to allow the great Mamdani to run. Cenk Uygur has run for president before despite being born in Turkey. He argued that the constitution should not discriminate against naturalized citizens, and treat them as second class citizens, and he vowed to take the issue to the Supreme Court if needed.

Jul 3, 2025 -- 7:49PM, tobermory wrote:

I saw Steve Bannon the other day saying Trump will have a 3rd term. That doesn't make it credible of course but the chatter about it continues.

Felons love in.

Cenk was never added on here. I thought his argument was that he could run for office but he couldn't serve if he won. Victoria Woodhull the first woman to run for president in 1872 was also ineligible to serve. I suppose using this argument then Mamdani can win the election he just cant serve as president.

Betfair probably aren't going to void unless someone complains and the longer it goes the less likely, it would probably help if his price keeps coming in because then any backers realising he is ineligible will just lay off rather than complain about him being listed.

Betfair have Republican and Democrat Nominee markets up.

Oh cool. It looks like they've copied the names from Wiki.

Ivanka now added to RNom market

I'd like to see Tulsi Gabbard on the ticket as VP.

If Biden can give Obama a third term I suppose Ivanka can do the same for Trump.

But so can Jr, Vance, Lara, Eric and many others. It's plausible Ivanka wins but 50/1 outright is way too short. I'm on Poly so got some 250/1 for RNom which is more realistic.

It will be an absolute annihilation again for the R's
The democrats are so hated it beggars belief. On the wrong side of every 80/20 issue
Their base is weirdos, freaks, pedos and criminals

Just look at this!

https://x.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1958139289134395523

I think maga loons will be going for a continuity candidate, backing all the sex offenders in the list will probably give a profit.

It just goes to show it is possible to win elections, even with terrible policies, but only by cheating on a massive scale. If Trump manages to make election honest again they will have no chance. Democrats want everything that makes it easier to cheat, computerized vote counting, mass mail in votes, including illegals in the census for apportionment, and they really don't want anything that makes it harder to cheat like voter ID, or paper ballots, or same day voting.

NY appeals court voids the
nearly $500 million civil fraud
penalty against Trump

More pathetic lawfare reversed . The amount of money wasted trying to get Trump & all to no avail.
No wonder the democrats have the lowest polling figures ever

It took them long enough.

President Trump will go on patrol tonight in the nation’s capital with law enforcement and military personnel at his side!

Was it the best and most impressive patrol by a true Chad that you ever saw, Jerry?

How's it going tobermory & blank?  any more trades/positions?

Completed my 2nd trade on this market today.
I was very slow off the mark on Newsom and his BIG BEAUTIFUL tweets campaign, ummed and arred at 12.5, forgot about it for a week, went in at 8, and out today at 7.6

There's definitely a few almost cert trades a year in this market but I'm not paying enough attention.

USA - Presidential Election 2028 -- Election Winner

80 Runners            £444,947 Matched

				98.2%		91%
£3.25	JD Vance	3.65	3.7	3.75		3.8	3.85	3.9	£203,848
		£88	£259	£40		£17	£103	£228
£83.25	Gavin Newsom	7	7.2	7.4		7.6	7.8	8	£49,920
		£350	£336	£78		£19	£86	£10
£3.25	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	17.5	18	18.5		19	19.5	20	£21,912
		£57	£57	£87		£34	£16	£11
£3.25	Pete Buttigieg	24	25	26		27	28	29	£19,423
		£7	£15	£31		£2	£94	£8
£3.25	Josh Shapiro	30	32	34		36	38	40	£12,354
		£24	£9	£14		£5	£28	£36
£3.25	Marco Rubio	32	34	36		38	40	42	£7,278
		£10	£15	£5		£6	£10	£12
£3.25	Ron DeSantis	40	42	44		48	50	55	£9,521
		£13	£55	£14		£67	£7	£19
£3.25	Gretchen Whitmer	38	40	42		46	48	50	£8,616
		£47	£12	£6		£2	£70	£22
£3.25	Ivanka Trump	36	38	40		46	48	50	£8,036
		£7	£6	£3		£118	£29	£5
£3.74	Donald Trump Jr.	42	44	46		48	50	55	£9,716
		£3	£9	£16		£25	£206	£67
£3.25	Andy Beshear	38	40	42		44	46	48	£5,041
		£14	£12	£5		£2	£15	£14
£3.25	Nikki Haley	50	55	60		65	70	75	£6,111
		£12	£17	£7		£5	£27	£5
£3.25	Wes Moore	38	40	42		44	46	48	£6,284
		£1	£25	£5		£5	£41	£30
£3.25	J.B Pritzker	46	48	50		55	60	65	£4,050
		£5	£1	£7		£2	£23	£8
£3.25	Tulsi Gabbard	90	95	100		110	120	140	£8,016
		£15	£22	£7		£1	£17	£5
£3.25	Kamala Harris	70	85	90		100	110	120	£4,799
		£3	£2	£12		£10	£4	£3
£3.25	Dwayne Johnson	85	90	95		140	150	240	£1,437
		£4	£6	£2		£20	£20	£1
plus 63 more runners not listed above, at odds of over 100

I'm laying almost everyone, some more than others. 80 runners currently, 130 in the 2024 market, at this stage in the 2024 market there was no Kennedy (traded 11), Ramaswamy (traded 11), D.Phillips (40), plus many others like T.Scott, Burgum, Shapiro, Lake, Dimon maybe, Manchin maybe. I expect a big field on both sides in 2028 with a lot of names to come.

Greens on GOP side, Youngkin, Carlson, Cotton, Kemp, Cruz, Bannon, Noem, Scott.. adds up to about 30/1
Decent greens on Dem side, Buttigieg, Beshear, Moore, Pritzker, Gallego, Khanna, Crockett, Raimondo... 7/1

I don't think there's much chance of Newsom going back to double figures in the next 6 months, he really is the focus, and he may go shorter, but longer term, 30% for Dnom and 13.5% for GE winner might look short come 2027.

Has Zohran Mamdani been removed from this market or am I blind and just can't see him in the list?

I layed him, but no bets settled..

A farce that he was ever added.

I can't see him in the list tober.

AFAIK, He's not born in USA and can't apply for the job, so a great lay.

I think they only partially settle this market on deceased runners.


Have you checked your voided bets?
If you got matched on him, you should see it on your account somewhere
https://myaccount.betfair.com/activity/bettinghistory

Yes they have removed him and void bets after he has been in the market since June. Crazy, someone like me that is laying nearly everyone is including him in the book %, and I am laying others based on being able to lay off against him, without him I might have offered a tick lower odds on other runners. I think he just started hitting sub 200 after his win.

Only a farce he was added because they wouldn't add Trump or Musk before. They should all be added like they're all listed on Polymarket, which now has $112M matched to Betfair's £500K.

My guess is someone who backed Mamdani @1000 was - in the aftermath of the NYC result - boasting about their big green on social media when someone pointed out Mamdani cannot win.

Then they called Betfair and got it voided.

Can't see why AOC came in again, because Mamdani won? The NYC electorate must be the worst proxy for the national race.

Though perhaps it was a sign that Dems are not going to see sense and the moderates will not be able to stop them going further left.

Can't see why AOC came in again

Total guess, It's because she is perceived as being one of the younger, 'angrier', pro active, new generation democrats.

The old guard are losing/have lost the respect of the younger internet generations , it's just a matter of time, the writing is on the wall for them.

Lots of folk always forget there is big right wing money
manipulating these markets.

Nothing better for right wingers than forcing AOC to
head of dem candy dates.

^^ one of the reasons I wanted Crockett added and have kept her green. Trump and the GOP love bigging her up but she is also popular with the dem base.

I've not really looked in depth at the VA and NJ candidates but some huge wins for dems there, and they were getting Moore, Shapiro, Buttigieg, Obama etc. to visit so I assume they're a lot more moderate candidates.

I've been surprised to hear a lot of commentators say AOC is going to explode when more people know who she is, I had assumed she was already a household name but I guess not.

The only people who are going to like AOC are those already into woke politics. I'd be surprised the average voter doesn't know who she is.

Crockett is a comedy candidate, the screensaver on her phone is a picture of her own face. And the there is the accent switch. I layed at 200 something and greened up now on her.

But Marjorie Taylor Greene is in the same category and is 1/4 Crockett price??? My 2nd biggest red.

And if those 2 airheads are contenders why isn't Nancy Mace in the market too

The Crockett accent switch is really funny

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/DolvP-DmZVI

The Crockett accent switch is really funny

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/DolvP-DmZVI

"Code switching", when someone switches accent, slang, or demeanour according to
the various cultural environments they mix in.
i.e. typically working in a mainly white office and socialising in mainly non white setting.

People who do this seamlessly are often above average IQ, empathetic, with good social skills and quick learners.


From my experience of being involved in lots of job interviews, a good code switcher makes a great employee when you need someone to own the task and deliver it.

Above average IQ

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/bvawZkoF5yg
/

You post like a paid actor... or you worship an Orange billionaire or both.

Either way, your opinion, your scoffing, your repetitive "same sht different toilet" posts are just
irrelevant pink noise.

As Bush said "Fool me once, shame on... shame on you. Fool me...you can't get fooled again."

No one clicks you links, no one laughs at your jokes, you don't even have a sense of humour.
All you do is post exactly like a paid actor would post and that's boring dull boring.


You're irrelevant.

Are you feeling alright?

The difference in MTG pricing and Crockett pricing was because it had been reported that MTG was telling people she was going to run, Crockett only had reporting that she might run and the confidence behind it was weak. Any noteworthy candidate that runs usually goes under 100

Just noticed the 'Will Trump run market'. I cant see there being much action, tying money up for nearly 3 years for less return than a savings account, unlike the outright markets you cant lay multiple runners to make it worth it.

A bit misleading too, he doesn't just have to run, he has to win the nomination and get the laws overturned so he is eligible. That's different to just running, no one disputes that Victoria Woodhull & Cenk Uygur ran for president but neither were eligible to serve.

The 22nd amendment wording is "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice". It doesn't say they can't run, or hold the office.

Will Trump Run for President for a Third Term?

Rules:

In order for this market to be settled as Yes Trump must officially be confirmed as one of the parties nominees and the 22nd Amendment is repealed or the Supreme Court reinterprets the 22nd Amendment to permit an individual to be elected President more than twice before Jan 1, 2029. If the 22nd Amendment is not repealed, the Supreme Court rules that Trump is ineligible, if Donald Trump is not confirmed as one of the parties nominees or if Donald Trump does not run for a third term, this market will be settled as No.

He'll claim 2028 is r1gged/not legal, and ensure it gets disputed in the courts for years.
That was his plan in 2020, almost worked.

How can I learn mind reading skills like you Escapee?

The market thinks this Venezuelan thing is good for MAGA seemingly.

But how do we have Rubio coming in to 3rd favourite (from 32 -18.5) but Hegseth, whose idea it probably was, is not even listed.

What price would Hegseth trade at, considering he is one of the 4 or 5 most prominent cabinet members, and clearly very ambitious?

Surely well under 100, maybe close to Rubio price.

Got to have connections and history or
super recognition to trade low so early.

If you fancy a punt then get him added and
bet what you fancy for a rainy day.

He would easily trade below 100, he has more recognition than half the people that are below 100.

The average punter could not pick Pritzker or Shapiro out of a lineup, but they are seeing Hegseth's kick ass antics all over the news for months.

People who would be Top 20 in the betting not being in the market at all is purely down to Betfair's chronic lack of knowledge of US politics.

We have had a guy from Africa put in the market who then had to be taken out. One of the 1st questions I asked on this thread was where is Rubio when there were 50 people listed, now he is 3rd fav.

I tried getting people added to a Tottenham manager market years ago, , never again.

He would easily trade below 100, he has more recognition than half the people that are below 100.

The average punter could not pick Pritzker or Shapiro out of a lineup, but they are seeing Hegseth's Rambo antics all over the news for months.

People who would be Top 20 in the betting not being in the market at all is purely down to Betfair's chronic lack of knowledge of US politics.

We have had a guy from Africa put in the market who then had to be taken out. One of the 1st questions I asked on this thread was where is Rubio when there were 50 people listed, now he is 3rd fav.

I tried getting people added to a Tottenham manager market years ago, , never again.

I think he would be similar to Noem. If he is to be added I hope it's to the outright and not the tumbleweed RNom market, any backer would probably have to go very short to get anything matched on the latter.

He'd be a lot shorter than Noem.

Noem killed a dog. Trump just did her a favour in giving her a job for some reason.

I don't see it, not right now. Noem gets a lot more mentions in the media and in polling as a potential runner, Hegseth gets some but not as much. It's not going to be easy to have a runner go in under 100 on the outright, the GOP are a lot shorter on the outright now than their winning party odds (2.26), so any runner under 100 pushes that even lower and invites lays across all the GOP runners.

Just had a look on oddschecker, 66/1 at Betfred the only place offering odds. I don't think he is listed at any of the US exchanges either, so now could be a good time to get matched at big prices but it probably only takes a couple of punters to like a candidate to push them to under 100.

Probably not wise to big him up so bigly

Unless you intend to lay him.

Ideally I lay and back everyone. With Hegseth id certainly be a backer at 100+ and then we'd see how low he went.

Noem is no comparison. Her lowest price matched is 240. She shot her pet dog dead and dumped it in a ditch, and boasted about it! That was the end of her political career, she has no supporters at all. But Trump gave her a zombie career with some photo ops that will end in 2028.

Hesgeth for sure would be below 100 and it's just annoying that people that would be in the top 25 or so are not in the list when there are dozens of novelty candidates.

I really don't think these threads move the odds tbh. A lot of times for the '24 thread everyone here was in unison about the stupid odds of particular candidates but whoever was backing kept on going.

It's not going to be easy to have a runner go in under 100 on the outright, the GOP are a lot shorter on the outright now than their winning party odds (2.26), so any runner under 100 pushes that even lower and invites lays across all the GOP runners.

There are several GOP at sub 100 that should be layed now, so there would be plenty of room for Hegseth to be below 100. I just layed Rubio @18.5. He has 2 or 3% more of the book than he should. His surge seems entirely due to the supposed popularity of the Venezuela operation, which Hegseth is just as much at the forefront of. It makes no sense when Rubio is 18.5 that Hegseth would be 240. Rubio should be shorter yes, as he has a more substantial resume, but IMO he should be about 36 and Hegseth 65 ish.

The Trump kids and Tucker also have about 5% of the book which is more than double what they should have.

There's a report on the Rubio odds surge, some think he is going to effectively be the president of Venezuela.

.https://www.thedailybeast.com/polymarket-surges-trump-goons-2028-odds-after-invasion/

I'm not too fussed about getting runners added here anymore, the absence keeps the short candidates short. Some of the short candidates have their fans definitely , I've layed them for a lot but they're still short.

My initial thoughts with Pete was to be a backer at 800, 700, 500, 400, and a layer at 250 down to wherever he ended up. But I respect your opinion so would probably hold off on the lays above 150 now.

I see Pete H is in!

This thread has some influence maybe

Rand Paul and Spencer Cox next please.

Pete trading lower than Noem

You were spot on on Pete's price Blank!

last price matched 400

and I backed him just then 600+!

I feel that's rather generous considering he's likely to be pretty prominent for the next couple of years and Trump seems to be keen on him

Pete was trading at 150-200 a couple of hours ago, 820-1,000 now.

He's got tattoos all over his arms, not a contender IMO, but that ain't to say the market won't move him sub 50 at some point.
Not for me, but Good luck on him.

My only action on him is a back at 1000. He might come in after everyone has layed off their greens.

Backing candidates at 900- 1000 that will trade below 100 is the best way to win on this. I managed to do that in 2016 with Ryan/Romney and would have got the same from Beshear/Moore in 2024 if they'd had the 'mini primary' that Obama wanted.

I certainly didn't expect Hegseth to go that high so am stuck with an average of 400 odd, with just a few £ above 900. There is very little money on either side now so his price could fluctuate a lot.

Just needs the mad right wing money to come for him
and you'll be squids in.

Kelly suing him could push his profile and see price decrease.

How can Rubio be single figures wearing those shoes?

Looking towards mid terms

Democrat Emily Gregory will flip deep-red Florida House district that includes Mar-a-Lago, CNN projects

Wow...