Official 2028 United Stated Presidential Election Thread (+Senate&House Elections)

You are meant to say Trump so we can convince Betfair to add Trump to the market and make some monies from it.

As long as there is a chance, albeit a small one, Betfair should add him to the market imo. But maybe they are concerned about MAGA's losing their monies and suing them for having him on the market when there was such a small chance he would win in 2028 that they think it's not worth the headache.

But besides the possibility of making money, I would also like this as a social experiment to see what his odds would be.
Maybe Poly will deliver, but they don't like to put up markets very far in advance.

Ask me who out of Trump and Elon Musk has the bigger chance of being elected president in 2028.

Who would you say has a bigger change of being elected president 2028? Donald Trump or Elon Musk?

Trump, very easily. Zero doubt. His chances are colossaly higher than those of Musk.

But which Trump? I think Baron has a good chance.

How old is Barron?

Elon Musk would never be eligible to be President of the United States due to the constitution requiring him to be natural-born citizen, same reason the Terminator didn't run.

Constitutions can be amended.

William Pitt the Younger was only 24 when he became prime minister.

And drug taking sex traffickers cans be opposed by Senators

You are so lucky to be in on the beginning of the golden age.

I told the in-laws I would see them in Mexico.

Happy days tbf I prefer to head East.

I wonder if Thune will let these appointments go through. We don't really know much about him. I suppose we will find out thune enough.

This is having remarkable hallmarks of Roman History and Orwellian fiction

Enjoy the show!

What did he do in his last term that was so scary it made you mentally ill with TDS?

What do you think the effect of economic sanctions will be Ron

What do you think the effect of economic sanctions will be Ron

We don't know what the sanctions will be yet. I am asking about past performance, which is something we do know.

Let’s see what this clown can do Ronald.

He has both Houses…..good.

Let’s see what China, Russia and India do.

1984

I heard something about a 10% tariff across the board on imports, but we need to see the details before judging it properly. It wouldn't make any sense to put tariffs on stuff they don't make in America. If there's a 10% tariff on Chinese cars that might cause some inflation but only a tiny fraction of the inflation that's caused by unfunded government spending. Lefties always want to put a magnifying glass on the tiny elephant while they ignore the massive elephant in the room. And of course people would still be free to buy an American car which would be miles better for their economy. There are already tariffs on some products from China and other countries but strangely lefties don't complains about Biden's tariffs or the ginormous Bidenflation they have had to put up with.

Trump gives them ammunition by posturing about all sorts of unreasonable broad band tarrifs.

I don’t ashley think Chump is too political.

I am really interested  to see how the right wing politics is implemented and what effect it will have

The so called ammunition helps Trump more than his critics. His tweet about covfefe led to Mike Quigley's covfefe Act. It was never passed but it was great for Trump.

I know Trump saying all the dumbest crap is always 42D chess.

it was argued that the "they're eating the cats, they're eating the dogs" comment was because it made immigration a hot topic. Even if there was no accuracy in that statement.

If RFK Jr. defeats the Industrial Food Complex and gives the USA the good food standards of the EU he....will still not be president in 2029.

His capping of drug prices sounds like serious COMMUNISM though.

Any publicity is good for Trump. The legacy media never wanted to talk about immigration because it makes Democrats look bad, Laken Riley etc, but they had to talk about it because they can never resist an opportunity to criticize Trump. The extra publicity means more people look into what he is saying about immigration and Trumps popularity goes up. Typically people hear about Trump from the legacy media and then they look at the new media to see what's really happening. You can call that 4D chess if you like but whatever it is it's effective.

42D. 4D is for amateurs.

As long as you're not a 42DD.

You won't say that anymore after RFK Jr. successfully ungayed you.

It's a bit weird you got me down as a gay leftie.

You suggested this morning that you exclusively fancy flat, male-like chests.

Cool story bro.

Nov 15, 2024 -- 11:01AM, Ronaldmcdonald wrote:

As long as you're not a 42DD.

.

I don't think that means what you think it means.

With Don Jr and Ivanka under 100-1, I think Lara Trump would be too if added, she is tipped to take Rubio's senate seat.

Other names, Rubio, T Scott, Kemp, Ro Khanna, D Johnson, E Warren.

No response from Betfair to the above name requests, very poor from them, I would have backed them all.

Rubio and Trump snr quite prominent on Kalshi. Should be ok for Betfair to add Trump and Musk when they're listed on there.

Here we go with the wacky polls again.

Political Polls
@PpollingNumbers
#New 2028 Dem primary

Harris 37%
Newsom 7%
Buttigieg 4%
Whitmer 3%
Shapiro 3%

Emerson #B - 400 DV - 11/22

Even the Democrats wouldn’t be so foolish as to nominate Kamala Harris in 2028, would they?

Surely they will at least pick someone who is coherent and popular next time.

I would almost give Kamala Harris zero chance.

But then again they did pick a severely compromised Joe Biden for a second time, so who knows!

Will be name recognition. Buttigieg is a fantastic orator and he should absolutely be primed to take the next step, but....this is the kind of person he has to put up with in even his own party's primary....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOY7xC43d-E

The USA, or parts of it, are a deeply weird and freaky and utterly creepy country really with all that hardcore Christianity (or their versions of it) still there. As next defence guy they want to give us some crusader dude who apparently doesn't believe in germs that he can't see. Even in this century school boards and some states are trying to push Adam&Eve or intelligent design as equal to evolution or even superior. In the ****g 21st century.

She does have zero chance. As Edy says is just name recognition. Most people don't pay attention to this until a few months before so she is just the candidate they've heard of.

Nov 23, 2024 -- 4:37PM, blank wrote:

No response from Betfair to the above name requests, very poor from them, I would have backed them all.Rubio and Trump snr quite prominent on Kalshi. Should be ok for Betfair to add Trump and Musk when they're listed on there.

It's annoying how difficult it is to get proper contenders added to a market. Some people have no problem getting novelty candidates in there. Rubio in particular will be Top 6 or 7 in the list once he's in there.

Oh they've added some of the names now, all bar Lara and Trump snr.

I'm not overly keen to go big red on Kamala too early. She is apparently telling advisors to keep the option open, and past nominee Hillary Clinton was under 100 very late on.

I tend to think Kamala will be to 2028 what Dukakis was to 1992. Totally forgotten.

Donors will not be giving her another billion!

Though name recognition is a thing for people who bet on this without being very knowledgeable, hence Pence was around 20ish for along time (and leading 'without Trump' polls) when he had no path whatsoever.

So it could be a long wait for her to hit 1000.

Governor of California is her only hope of elected high office and that is what she should focus on if she has any sense.

Was Wiped out , and was plenty of Funding , I doubt she will be back

They should have made her Governor this year and ran Newsom against Trump.

I wonder if she would even win the primary now tbh. An appointment to fill a vacancy by far her best hope.

The lieutenant governor would have taken over if Newsom had resigned to become the nominee. Adam Schiff has just been elected to the Senate so there is no chance of an appointment back there unless someone dies unexpectedly.

As Hegseth Vows to Fight, Trump Considers DeSantis for Defense Secretary

interesting ,High profile position for Ron would help his cause to run to be Next POTUS , if he is interested

TBH Ron is about the only one of them who is the Full shilling

You can Include the Democrats in that statement

46 Ron , if you have money you can Tie up for 4 years

then again if he does get the Defence Job its not a given he doesnt fall out with Trump

He's picking a dream team compared to some of the spotty herberts Biden chose.

It'll probably mean Lara for the senate if RDS gets defsec. I've read a lot of hires are from Florida, bodes well for RDS and Rubio to take over the team if Vance isn't up to it.

Trump second fav for RNom on Kalshi at 10%, implies he would be at least similar price to Vivek and RDS on here and maybe shorter.

Lara edging closer to senate.
.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-spoke-to-desantis-about-choosing-lara-trump-for-florida-senate-seat-42b37fe6?mod=latest_headlines

Jr tied with Vance.

2028 National Republican Primary

• Donald Trump Jr. — 30%
• JD Vance — 30%
• Ron DeSantis — 9%
• Nikki Haley — 6%
• Vivek Ramaswamy — 5%
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — 5%
• Sarah Huckabee Sanders — 1%
• Marco Rubio — 1%
• Tucker Carlson — 1%
• Greg Abbott — 1%
• Brian Kemp — 1%
• Glenn Youngkin — 1%
---
• Someone else — 5%

@MorningConsult
| 12/6-8 | n=994

I did a few bets and will probably just leave it like this, as I don't want to follow it non stop.

1,225	Gallego		100	Mark Cuban
318	Beshear		92	AOC
128	Buttigieg		120	Kamala
96	Whitmer		110	RFKjnr
142	Vivek		130	Haley
76	Tulsi		0	Everyone else
96	Wes Moore

||

I'm not sure I could even make a case that Gallego is value at 85.

My thinking is that the Dems are going to rightly or wrongly conclude that they can't go with a woman again because 'people are misogynist/not ready for it'

Not that they will say this, maybe even to each other, but I think donors will have big doubts about Whitmer orasny female for these reasons.

They may be totally wrong and the previous 2 lost because they were both crap candidates in different ways, but IMO they will be going with a guy.

Gallego ticks a lot of boxes, and I think they may want to skip a generation in 2028. If he is effective in his first 2 years as Senator then people will get behind him like they did with Obama.

Wes Moore could maybe be a strong candidate and I might look to green up on him later. The other reds I don't see having a path.

I followed it non stop in 2024 and made £48K, would have been £60Kish if Kamala won, guess it works out about minimum wage over 4 years though, and I may have gotten lucky with a big green on Kamala before the Biden debate.

I'm already in deep here that I will have to follow it again or have money tied up for a long time, I've been laying almost everyone, with 70ish runners to be added about 90% of the current field is probably priced too low IMO, which is why I'm trying to get runners added when they're hot, DJT would be a good addition.

BeShear looks like he will run, not sure about Gallego but he has a good profile. Rahm Emanuel the first Dem that is reported to be exploring a run, not heard of him but former Obama chief of staff.

I'm not sure why the Reps have a significant edge in the winning party market, 1.75R/2.32D, 57%/43%. Dems actually slightly ahead on other sites and with 4 years to go and no incumbent it looks 50/50. It would probably work out to be backing the dems at odds on when 4 years of lost capital returns is taken into account though, so no value.

2028 National Republican Primary

• J.D. Vance — 25%
• Donald Trump Jr. — 21%
• Ron DeSantis — 9%
• Nikki Haley — 4%
• Vivek Ramaswamy — 4%
• Tim Scott — 3%
• Tulsi Gabbard — 2%
• Glenn Youngkin — 2%
• Sarah Huckabee Sanders — 2%
• Marco Rubio — 2%
• Kristi Noem — 1%
• Tom Cotton — 1%
• Greg Abbott — 1%
• Rick Scott — 1%
• Elise Stefanik — 0.4%
• Larry Hogan — 0.2%
---
• Undecided — 24%

McLaughlin and Assoc | 12/11-16 | 463

2028 National Democratic Primary

• Kamala Harris — 35%
• Pete Buttigieg — 12%
• Gavin Newsom — 7%
• Josh Shapiro — 5%
• Tim Walz — 5%
• Beto O'Rourke — 3%
• A. Ocasio-Cortez — 3%
• J.B. Pritzker — 3%
• Gretchen Whitmer — 3%
• Cory Booker — 2%
• Amy Klobuchar — 1%
• Wes Moore — 1%
• Phil Murphy — 1%
• Deval Patrick — 1%
• Jared Polis — 0.4%
---
• Undecided — 19%

McLaughlin and Assoc. | 12/11-12 | 428 LV

Pete B clear second here and he was second in another poll since the election. It'll be interesting if he runs for MI governor in 2026 and how that affects his potential running in 2028 for the top. Newsom and Whitmer fallen back from their summer polling in polls since the election, voters probably looking past an oven-ready candidate.

I followed it non stop in 2024 and made £48K, would have been £60Kish if Kamala won, guess it works out about minimum wage over 4 years though

That's fantastic though Blank! You can't really look it at as an hourly wage, as betting is fun and I'm sure you have other markets and other income.

I won 600 odd and I didn't really see how I could have scaled it up much by betting a lot bigger, as the best value i got would typically be £2 bets on candidates with low liquidity, when £2 was all that could be matched at the price.

To win big you have to take strong positions on the current odds of the main candidates where the money is, and be right most times. OR build huge greens on no hopers at 900+ that then become contenders. The latter could have worked out for me on Beshear & Moore but then Biden nixed the mini primary.

• Donald Trump Jr. — 21%

I can't help think that some people being polled see or hear  'Donald Trump Jr' and think 'Donald Trump yay!'

Yes you are right. I shouldn't be disappointed, my biggest market to date. When the market first started I was thinking of the £2BN+ 2020 market and hoping for the same matched, if 2024 had another billion and half matched I think I would have doubled or trebled my profit.

I tended to group some of the main candidates together the first few years, I knew some of their odds had to be wrong but I didn't know which. I think around 3 years out Trump and DeSantis were evens dutched and all the republicans were 1.5, the winning party market was about 1.75 I think, so I'd lay every republican and then a couple of months later back them back at 1.7+, (I could have also hedged in winning party market). Then repeated the cycle when it ebbed and flowed every few months.

I don't know what to take from the Trump JR polling. He isn't going to run against his pick Vance. There was an Emerson poll last month that had Trump Snr on 23%, similar to what Jr is getting so they're likely interchangeable.

Please note that candidates in this market will not be partially settled and will remain in the market until it is fully settled. This is to allow customers to continue trading candidates that they have positions on and because each candidate is still a valid runner in this market. The only exception is if a candidate dies before they are elected in which case we will partially settle that candidate as a loser.

I was reading the rules for this market the other day. The bit in bold is new from the 2024 market I believe. I don't think it will change how the market operates significantly but probably more layers around for an instant pay-out if someone dies, and maybe shores up the VP's in the final stretch.

I think the LA fires have done for Newsom?

He is getting blamed, really squirming when trying to defend himself. No one on the left bothered to defend him much.

He missed his chance I think. Should have just challenged Biden at start of primaries.

don j t not in the market?

Elissa Slotkin to give the Dem response to Trump's State of the Union address

Also I backed Mark Kelly@200

He was the one Obama wanted instead of Kamala last July

Trump Snr now listed at billy mountains, 5/1 second favourite, C'mon Betfair get him up!

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-third-term-white-house-methods-rcna198752

Of course Betfair won't care.

He should be added now he has expressed interest. Betfair should be facilitating betting on candidates in which there is interest, not getting involved in moral/ political stances. He is listed on US regulated sites and now UK ones.

What price would settle at ?

There is absolutely zero chance of Trump winning in 2028, but I guess it would be sub 100

Depends on where the mad right wing money takes it.

I'd expect sub 20 to begin.

what we need is a market for who will be potus on jan 21 2029 - there are a few things the don can try which don't necessarily involve winning the 2028 election

I'd probably be a backer at above 100 to start with. My guess would be 20-50. I think it is all bluff but he might keep it going for a few years so he doesn't appear a lame duck.

Well, Smarkets had a crazy market at the last election where only one result was possible but the extreme right wing MAGA nuts kept piling on the guaranteed loser. It was money for nothing. Hopefully they will come up with something similar.

he might keep it going for a few years so he doesn't appear a lame duck.

yes he will want to continue to strike fear into the hearts of republican lawmakers

Mar 31, 2025 -- 5:12PM, blank wrote:

He should be added now he has expressed interest. Betfair should be facilitating betting on candidates in which there is interest, not getting involved in moral/ political stances. He is listed on US regulated sites and now UK ones.

They're so scared ever since the 2020 post election night drama and all the complaints.

That must be it. They should have a magic button similar to cashout that lets people back 'any other' more easily, that way instead of people backing Trump at 5/1 on oddschecker they could back him at the same price on here, and get all the other candidates to be added included in their bet.

Betfair could easily offer a side market

Trump not to run
Trump to run and lose
Trump to run and win
Trump to seize power anyway

...

The $markets market

Donald Trump to serve as president for 9+ years by end of 2030
No 1.12
Yes 7.4

That's a much better market than Trump to win the 2028 elections. Betfair should do that.

...But Betfair should nonetheless really add Trump to the election market.

If you lay everybody quoted, you are backing trump.

Patience is key, of course at current prices.

i still say it should be who will be potus on 21/01/2029

Looks like Chump is determined to make an omlette!

Stoopid speculation that he will be running in 2028. He will be gawn by the midterms. 25th!



As egg prices have reached record highs, about a third of American consumers have stopped buying them in response to the rising costs, a new study suggests.

According to research from Clarify Capital, 34% of Americans have stopped purchasing eggs as prices for the breakfast staple are becoming less affordable. On average, these consumers say they won’t begin buying eggs again until costs come down to $5 or less for a carton.

The report compared the average price of eggs across all US states, observing a significant jump in 2018, when the average was $1.49. In 2025, that figure is sitting at about $5.18.

AOC is 2nd favourite 

I never wanted to get involved with this again but am over £500 red on her

Now wish I'd layed all the 1000s when they were 600-900

There's so many no hopers and impossibles in the market at 50 to 150 it's tempting to get stuck in.

Like you, I'm trying not to get involved, but there are opportunities.
I backed Trump Jr at 46 in January then laid him at 20 in early march. (27 currently)
I've not looked at it since then.

G'luck on AOC, you're on to a winner(IMHO) but you might be red on her quite a while because she's in the news a lot.

Betfair should put Trump in the market, he's declared his intention to run and he's got the power to suspend the constitution so he's got a greater than zero chance.

Newsom, Buttigieg and Pritzker almost certain to run, AOC way down in likelihood of running imo.

Buttigieg the favourite right now for me. I was cautious a few months ago when he was rumoured to be mulling MI gov or senate but now it looks very likely he is running for Prez. Second in polling and top without Harris, strong name ID granted but he won the debates and came a very close second in the early primaries in 2020, surely better positioned now.

Last time I asked about Trump they said they're not going to add him because he is ineligible, sounded quite definitive, they probably should have stated that right away.

Still loads of names they could add which would automatically push up the prices on everyone currently listed. Raimondo, Bannon, Abbott, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Byron Donalds, Jared Polis, Cooper, Stefanik, Burgum, Jamie Dimon. Layers are at the mercy of Betfair adding names.

2028 could be a repeat of 2024 (demented old man clings on to power to long and hastily replaced at the last moment by lame duck VP after ludicrous TV debate)

Last time I asked about Trump they said they're not going to add him because he is ineligible, sounded quite definitive, they probably should have stated that right away.

They're going to have to add him to the market at some point because he isn't going to step down voluntarily.
The constitutional 2 term limit is not worth the paper it is printed on.

This is a lesson in how to be a proper TDS bro, you have to believe every imaginary made up issue, like "Trump isn't going to step down", "there are fascists everywhere" etc. Classic TDS bro lesson.

Can't believe I could lay Bernie Sanders at sub 200. He will be 87 years old in 2028.

I think I layed him at 1,000 Pretty sure he ruled it out years ago, with his allies looking at a successor even in 2024. He has filed for re-election to the senate in 2030 though

Kemp's ruled out a 2026 Senate run despite GOP trying to get him to run, IG he thinks the 2026 midterms will be dire or he is looking at 2028.

Interesting. Kemp would need MAGA to completely implode, though couldn't rule that out lol

He would be the number 1 non MAGA Republican I think.