Official 2028 United Stated Presidential Election Thread (+Senate&House Elections)

I'm assuming Trump attended a few his baby oil parties and will pardon a fellow sex offender.

Trump will be dead by the next election, either a heart attack or assassination, though ironically if he's shot in the heart he'd survive with impenetrable thick arteries.

My prediction is Vance will be president before he's elected president in 2028.

Kind Regards.

Don't forget Baron, he's a very smart young man. Trump can always amend the constitution so baron's age won't be a bar.

What a muppet that norbert guy is. As if Trump went to any baby oil parties. It's just as well he will never see this post.

Don't dampen my hopes for pictures of oiled up, nekkid and lewd Donald like that please.

The guys from 'Pod Save America' were on Jimmy Kimmel last night. Nice to hear a few reasoned opinions about American politics.

If you are batting for the other side you would probably like Michelle all oiled up.

Well of course a manly man batting for the other side would enjoy a woman all oiled up.

A manly man batting for the same side would enjoy a man all oiled up.

Sounds like you are getting your sides mixed up.

No.

Man == man -> same side

Woman != man -> other side

https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/batting+for+the+other+side

I know that, Shrewd_dude, but if you look at the original meaning and actually think about it, you will notice that the English messed up in their later application to sexuality.

We should not blindly, without a thought in sight, just sheepishly lemming around.

I see they added Wes Moore and also Ruben Gallego, who is one of the more promising new generation Dems.

Still no Beshear or Kemp. Took about 3 years to get them in the last market though.

No thread about the Chaos in German politics Edy ?

Things dont seem to be going too well No growth for two years

and Infighting about Monies

thought you may have started one Edy , guess not

I start very few threads on here. This one just about being the only one in years. I'm not a hugely Dramatic Darren constantly lusting for often imagined controversy like you are. So why would you expect me to start one honestly?

Even if coalitions break, Germans don't chaos around. We are not a sensationalist tabloid society that treats its politics like a reality tv show.

One of the coalition partners came up with suggestions that were unacceptable for the chancellor. The chancellors ideas in turn were unacceptable for that particular coalition partner. You terminate the contract and one day have new elections.

That's politics, particularly in a country with a rather fractured party system where governing often requires consensus decisions between differing ideologies. Sometimes it strains the partners as they feel they have made too many concessions already or are asked to cross a red line and then you vote again. It's not the first coalition that is terminated early and it will not.

Chaos would be more applicable if we had one-party-governments with constantly changing chancellors instead of a chancellor not seeing out their full term for only the fourth time ever in more than 70 years now.

And hey, Germany did show growth in the most recent quarter, although that will probably be rather short-lived if the US Congress goes through with Trump's anti-European agenda.

Why do you think Germans always win in penalty shootouts? We are cool as pickles.

Performance in penalty shootouts always tells you about the coolness of a country. If you tend to win them, the country's people handle these things with coolness and pragmatism. If you tend to lose them, the mentality of your people are more hyper, more restless and everything will always be more chaotic.

I'm not a hugely Dramatic Darren

Very good.

Big Shame about that 1976 final when their legs turned to jelly

I thought Trump was going to abolish elections after the 2024 one so there isnt much point betting on this.

Yeah....sometimes you still meet equals that just edge you on the day. Germany doesn't have the monopoly on being cool as pickles. Czechs and Slovaks are also very picklely as fellow central europeans. The Czechs are faultless in UEFA Euros penalties

Apart from that, Germany's 6 of 7 record at world and euro champs is better than any other European nation's record.

...I think....or at least right up there.

West or East?

West and united.

I don't think the GDR ever reached the phase of a FIFA or UEFA tournament where you get to do penalty shootouts. Football in those days was one of those nasty sports where you needed lots of skill beyond pure physical, easily enhanceable ability.

Czechoslovakia/Czech Republic have 3 out of 3
Croatia have won 4 out of 5
England have won 3 out 10 but won 2 of the last 3, not including Nations League pap.
Argentina have won the most, 12 out of 18, but lower % than the Germugs

Eu and UK going to need to find a lot more Money For Wars ,Trump wont be Sending multi Billions to Ukraine ,Will expect everyone to pay their Whack ,Pro rata ,  Unless of course the War ends ,Maybe Joe will sort furher funding before he Goes ?

A serious issue TBH , A couple of Billion here and there will not cover it

Trump might be sending money and gear. Nobody knows. Probably not even he does as he's only at the concept of a plan stage and his plan is four weeks away. Support for continued Ukraine support would very likely be there in the population and the legislature.

Campaigning and sounding tough is one thing, governing is another. To me it simply sounds kind of like a rough message to the USA's population if Trump tells Ukraine "You know, you either sign this and officially give Russia a quarter of your land or I'll stop all aid and watch Russia completely destroy you.". Might roll with that core MAGA fringe, but overall it's kind of a bad look for the beacon of the free world, is it not?

There was a report in the Wall Street Journal that Trump's advisers are pushing for a frozen conflict, a demilitarised stripe (policed by entirely European forces), a multi decade moratorium on NATO membership and in return Ukraine gets (plenty) defensive gear to scare Russia way from unfreezing once they produced new and shiny gear. Whether Putin would even agree to that remains to be seen. His negotiation position has generally been that Ukraine as a whole gets demilitarised so that the Russians have an easier go of it next time around.

https://www.wsj.com/world/trump-presidency-ukraine-russia-war-plans-008655c0

European supporters of Trump/MAGA are a bit puzzling really. Like, I know I don't enjoy the higher likelihood of Trump bringing economic pain to Europe, but they apparently either do or don't care.

Nov 7, 2024 -- 4:37PM, Dotchinite wrote:

I thought Trump was going to abolish elections after the 2024 one so there isnt much point betting on this.

If a clown like Trump could easily change the constitution then what's to stop a much more smarter & competent person from doing the same?

Where did you hear about Trump's plan to abolish elections? Sounds fiendish.

Good news. I have just been told Donald Trump will be added to the 2028 Presidential Election market!

https://x.com/BetfairCS/status/1857005770035900607

After securing a second term in the 2024 election, some of Donald Trump's supporters and opponents have floated the possibility of the President-elect could run for a third term in four years time.

The claims - and fears in the case of Trump's detractors - stem from comments of his own in which he hinted about returning for the 2028 vote.

However, Trump cannot run for a third term as president in 2028 because the US Constitution explicitly forbids it.

The 22nd Amendment specifically and unequivocally states that no one can be elected president more than twice, in either consecutive or non-consecutive terms, as is the case with Trump.

To run again, the President-elect would have to repeal the 22nd Amendment, which would be nigh on impossible as it requires an overwhelming level of support from the House of Representatives, the Senate and the individual states.

One potential route to amending the Constitution would need two-thirds of both the House and the Senate would to agree to it, in addition to 75% of US states.

In another, 34 out of 50 states would have to agree to hold an Article V Convention to discuss any potential changes to the Constitution. Even if the received enough support to be held, any proposed changes would have to receive the backing of 38 states.

Given the inevitable Democratic opposition to the move, as well as any Republicans who might be against it, Trump would surely be unable to gather enough support to even attempt to repeal the amendment.

so you're saying there is a chance ...

People talk too much about the amendments. Trump's cleanest way to another presidency would be through the office of the speaker of the house. It's not going to work and he won't even bother attempting, but it would be his best chance.

Another would be a military coup I guess, but people in the military actually tend to like the constitution, so Trump and MAGA will largely be a no-no for them.

Who would you say has a bigger change of being elected president 2028? Donald Trump or Kanye West?

Elected? West!

let me rephrase the question.

Which candidate is more likely to win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Donald Trump (Sr) or Kanye West?

Still Kanye. Trump might well win the Republican primaries on the basis of the MAGAs infiltration and hijacking of that process, but I think he won't be allowed on the actual ballot and any write-ins will probably be invalid as well.

You are meant to say Trump so we can convince Betfair to add Trump to the market and make some monies from it.

As long as there is a chance, albeit a small one, Betfair should add him to the market imo. But maybe they are concerned about MAGA's losing their monies and suing them for having him on the market when there was such a small chance he would win in 2028 that they think it's not worth the headache.

But besides the possibility of making money, I would also like this as a social experiment to see what his odds would be.
Maybe Poly will deliver, but they don't like to put up markets very far in advance.

Ask me who out of Trump and Elon Musk has the bigger chance of being elected president in 2028.

Who would you say has a bigger change of being elected president 2028? Donald Trump or Elon Musk?

Trump, very easily. Zero doubt. His chances are colossaly higher than those of Musk.

But which Trump? I think Baron has a good chance.

How old is Barron?

Elon Musk would never be eligible to be President of the United States due to the constitution requiring him to be natural-born citizen, same reason the Terminator didn't run.

Constitutions can be amended.

William Pitt the Younger was only 24 when he became prime minister.

And drug taking sex traffickers cans be opposed by Senators

You are so lucky to be in on the beginning of the golden age.

I told the in-laws I would see them in Mexico.

Happy days tbf I prefer to head East.

I wonder if Thune will let these appointments go through. We don't really know much about him. I suppose we will find out thune enough.

This is having remarkable hallmarks of Roman History and Orwellian fiction

Enjoy the show!

What did he do in his last term that was so scary it made you mentally ill with TDS?

What do you think the effect of economic sanctions will be Ron

What do you think the effect of economic sanctions will be Ron

We don't know what the sanctions will be yet. I am asking about past performance, which is something we do know.

Let’s see what this clown can do Ronald.

He has both Houses…..good.

Let’s see what China, Russia and India do.

1984

I heard something about a 10% tariff across the board on imports, but we need to see the details before judging it properly. It wouldn't make any sense to put tariffs on stuff they don't make in America. If there's a 10% tariff on Chinese cars that might cause some inflation but only a tiny fraction of the inflation that's caused by unfunded government spending. Lefties always want to put a magnifying glass on the tiny elephant while they ignore the massive elephant in the room. And of course people would still be free to buy an American car which would be miles better for their economy. There are already tariffs on some products from China and other countries but strangely lefties don't complains about Biden's tariffs or the ginormous Bidenflation they have had to put up with.

Trump gives them ammunition by posturing about all sorts of unreasonable broad band tarrifs.

I don’t ashley think Chump is too political.

I am really interested  to see how the right wing politics is implemented and what effect it will have

The so called ammunition helps Trump more than his critics. His tweet about covfefe led to Mike Quigley's covfefe Act. It was never passed but it was great for Trump.

I know Trump saying all the dumbest crap is always 42D chess.

it was argued that the "they're eating the cats, they're eating the dogs" comment was because it made immigration a hot topic. Even if there was no accuracy in that statement.

If RFK Jr. defeats the Industrial Food Complex and gives the USA the good food standards of the EU he....will still not be president in 2029.

His capping of drug prices sounds like serious COMMUNISM though.

Any publicity is good for Trump. The legacy media never wanted to talk about immigration because it makes Democrats look bad, Laken Riley etc, but they had to talk about it because they can never resist an opportunity to criticize Trump. The extra publicity means more people look into what he is saying about immigration and Trumps popularity goes up. Typically people hear about Trump from the legacy media and then they look at the new media to see what's really happening. You can call that 4D chess if you like but whatever it is it's effective.

42D. 4D is for amateurs.

As long as you're not a 42DD.

You won't say that anymore after RFK Jr. successfully ungayed you.

It's a bit weird you got me down as a gay leftie.

You suggested this morning that you exclusively fancy flat, male-like chests.

Cool story bro.

Nov 15, 2024 -- 5:01AM, Ronaldmcdonald wrote:

As long as you're not a 42DD.

.

I don't think that means what you think it means.

With Don Jr and Ivanka under 100-1, I think Lara Trump would be too if added, she is tipped to take Rubio's senate seat.

Other names, Rubio, T Scott, Kemp, Ro Khanna, D Johnson, E Warren.

No response from Betfair to the above name requests, very poor from them, I would have backed them all.

Rubio and Trump snr quite prominent on Kalshi. Should be ok for Betfair to add Trump and Musk when they're listed on there.

Here we go with the wacky polls again.

Political Polls
@PpollingNumbers
#New 2028 Dem primary

Harris 37%
Newsom 7%
Buttigieg 4%
Whitmer 3%
Shapiro 3%

Emerson #B - 400 DV - 11/22

Even the Democrats wouldn’t be so foolish as to nominate Kamala Harris in 2028, would they?

Surely they will at least pick someone who is coherent and popular next time.

I would almost give Kamala Harris zero chance.

But then again they did pick a severely compromised Joe Biden for a second time, so who knows!

Will be name recognition. Buttigieg is a fantastic orator and he should absolutely be primed to take the next step, but....this is the kind of person he has to put up with in even his own party's primary....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOY7xC43d-E

The USA, or parts of it, are a deeply weird and freaky and utterly creepy country really with all that hardcore Christianity (or their versions of it) still there. As next defence guy they want to give us some crusader dude who apparently doesn't believe in germs that he can't see. Even in this century school boards and some states are trying to push Adam&Eve or intelligent design as equal to evolution or even superior. In the ****g 21st century.

She does have zero chance. As Edy says is just name recognition. Most people don't pay attention to this until a few months before so she is just the candidate they've heard of.

Nov 23, 2024 -- 10:37AM, blank wrote:

No response from Betfair to the above name requests, very poor from them, I would have backed them all.Rubio and Trump snr quite prominent on Kalshi. Should be ok for Betfair to add Trump and Musk when they're listed on there.

It's annoying how difficult it is to get proper contenders added to a market. Some people have no problem getting novelty candidates in there. Rubio in particular will be Top 6 or 7 in the list once he's in there.

Oh they've added some of the names now, all bar Lara and Trump snr.

I'm not overly keen to go big red on Kamala too early. She is apparently telling advisors to keep the option open, and past nominee Hillary Clinton was under 100 very late on.

I tend to think Kamala will be to 2028 what Dukakis was to 1992. Totally forgotten.

Donors will not be giving her another billion!

Though name recognition is a thing for people who bet on this without being very knowledgeable, hence Pence was around 20ish for along time (and leading 'without Trump' polls) when he had no path whatsoever.

So it could be a long wait for her to hit 1000.

Governor of California is her only hope of elected high office and that is what she should focus on if she has any sense.

Was Wiped out , and was plenty of Funding , I doubt she will be back

They should have made her Governor this year and ran Newsom against Trump.

I wonder if she would even win the primary now tbh. An appointment to fill a vacancy by far her best hope.

The lieutenant governor would have taken over if Newsom had resigned to become the nominee. Adam Schiff has just been elected to the Senate so there is no chance of an appointment back there unless someone dies unexpectedly.

As Hegseth Vows to Fight, Trump Considers DeSantis for Defense Secretary

interesting ,High profile position for Ron would help his cause to run to be Next POTUS , if he is interested

TBH Ron is about the only one of them who is the Full shilling

You can Include the Democrats in that statement

46 Ron , if you have money you can Tie up for 4 years

then again if he does get the Defence Job its not a given he doesnt fall out with Trump

He's picking a dream team compared to some of the spotty herberts Biden chose.

It'll probably mean Lara for the senate if RDS gets defsec. I've read a lot of hires are from Florida, bodes well for RDS and Rubio to take over the team if Vance isn't up to it.

Trump second fav for RNom on Kalshi at 10%, implies he would be at least similar price to Vivek and RDS on here and maybe shorter.

Lara edging closer to senate.
.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-spoke-to-desantis-about-choosing-lara-trump-for-florida-senate-seat-42b37fe6?mod=latest_headlines

Jr tied with Vance.

2028 National Republican Primary

• Donald Trump Jr. — 30%
• JD Vance — 30%
• Ron DeSantis — 9%
• Nikki Haley — 6%
• Vivek Ramaswamy — 5%
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — 5%
• Sarah Huckabee Sanders — 1%
• Marco Rubio — 1%
• Tucker Carlson — 1%
• Greg Abbott — 1%
• Brian Kemp — 1%
• Glenn Youngkin — 1%
---
• Someone else — 5%

@MorningConsult
| 12/6-8 | n=994