Next Conservative Leader market - Farage in it, wtf?

Didn't realise he was with the Tories until 1992. Surprise surprise. Now says he wants "nothing to do with them"...

  https://news.sky.com/story/nigel-farage-rules-out-joining-conservatives-and-says-he-wants-nothing-to-do-with-them-13161422

I'd bet the feeling's mutual.

Farage pulled candidates last time in labour seats.

He seemed from his chat after to have been expecting some reward
and feels tories stitched him up.

It'll come out one day.

Get it right Donny.

Meanwhile, it’s incredible to think that only a short while ago we thought we’d eradicated measles and Nigel Farage. Both have now been brought back, largely by the same people.


Properly laughed at that line

Jul 5, 2024 -- 4:01PM, unitedbiscuits wrote:

Zero chance - he is truly hated by half Tories, and he's not a member.

He'll get rid of that half, they're the lefty socialist mob who have nothing to do with
Conservatism, He'll either take over the Tory Party with his own people or Farage will start a New Conservatives, like Bliar did with New Labour imo

Steve Barclay looks worth considering at the current odds.

dambuster • July 5, 2024 4:49 PM BST
Jul 5, 2024 -- 4:01PM, unitedbiscuits wrote:

Zero chance - he is truly hated by half Tories, and he's not a member.


He'll get rid of that half, they're the lefty socialist mob who have nothing to do with
Conservatism, He'll either take over the Tory Party with his own people or Farage will start a New Conservatives, like Bliar did with New Labour imo

bearing in mind they also lost many voters to the libdems such a strategy would likely help keep them out of power. what you describe as 'the lefty socialist mob who nothing to do with conservatism' are actually people who are conservative, you obviously dont know what the word conservative means. it is this kind of opinion that has helped them to where they are now.

Nigel's character being unsuited to the disciplines of office. He plays the errant child very well, but never gets beyond it. Instead of taking on the responsibility of being an MEP, he went awol. Lord help his flock in Clacton.

Jul 5, 2024 -- 5:34PM, jollyswagman wrote:

dambuster • July 5, 2024 4:49 PM BSTJul 5, 2024 -- 4:01PM, unitedbiscuits wrote:Zero chance - he is truly hated by half Tories, and he's not a member.He'll get rid of that half, they're the lefty socialist mob who have nothing to do withConservatism, He'll either take over the Tory Party with his own people or Farage will start a New Conservatives, like Bliar did with New Labour imobearing in mind they also lost many voters to the libdems such a strategy would likely help keep them out of power. what you describe as 'the lefty socialist mob who nothing to do with conservatism' are actually people who are conservative, you obviously dont know what the word conservative means. it is this kind of opinion that has helped them to where they are now.

IMO,HTH

Wasn't Farage the star of the Tory conference?

''Mr Farage attended the Conservative Party conference this year in his capacity as an anchor for GB News.

The former MEP was greeted as a hero by many of the Conservative faithful and spent much of his time posing for selfies and signing autographs, sparking rumours he could return to the Tory fold.''

*next* tory leader.. can't believe there's money to back farage at 32. even if you believe he'll come back into the tory fold at some point, this time and suddenly made leader!! no way.

“Meanwhile, it’s incredible to think that only a short while ago we thought we’d eradicated measles and Nigel Farage. Both have been bought back,mainly by the same people”

You could easily swap Farages name with Corbyn and it would still work!

Somebody wants 500 Gavin Williamson.

Maybe they just like the name.

the tory blob hate him and would never let him join as an MP

i think Grant Shapps is ideal candidate.

Conservatives don't do hate, they do what they see as best for them.

It's Lefties who base policies on hate.

You could easily swap Farages name with Corbyn and it would still work!

Really???

How many people voted for Corbyn?

Now tell me how many voted for Reform?

as a white-identity candidate there was a route for trump to hi-jack the gop nomination in 2016 - there isn't a path for nige to do the same over here

I read If we had PR instead of FPP  Reform would have got 93 seats. If thats the case then its a Stitch up for all, baring the two cr4p parties we have

How many people voted for Corbyn?

Now tell me how many voted for Reform?

How silly a comparison is that?

If Farage had joined the Tories as its leader this time, and at the last minute like he did with Reform. The Tories would have been a shoo-in.

Tory conference in September will be renaissance of
Nu-Tories led by new glorious leader with
a mahoosive air brush.

We have long memories...

| report
Dr Crippen
Dr Crippen06 Jul 24 11:46Joined: 16 Apr 02 | Topic/replies: 56,012 | Blogger: Dr Crippen's blog
How many people voted for Corbyn?

Now tell me how many voted for Reform?

How silly a comparison is that?

If Farage had joined the Tories as its leader this time, and at the last minute like he did with Reform. The Tories would have been a shoo-in.



Dry your eyes and put on your big boys pants

Lol, Leftie loser is never far behind any of my posts.

Dry your eyes, mate
I know it's hard to take, but the vote has been made
There's plenty more fish in the sea
Dry your eyes, mate
I know you want to make them see how much this pain hurts
But you've got to walk away now, it's over

The votes Reform were able to stack up last Thursday was the story of the election. Unless Starmer can stop the boats Farage will eat both the Tories and Labour at the next GE

Starmer needs Farage to split right wing vote, yet
not allow him to erode his vote, AND needs to
regain vote from left of party.

He needs great skill to do this, does he possess it?

Selection of a mid ground tory erodes some of his centre
ground vote too, he would be toast!

Starmer has the middle ground and with people like Suella still onboard the Tories can not regain it.

The only way for the Tories is RIGHT RIGHT RIGHT

Problem is can they out Nigel Nigel!

I like the smell of singed leftie.

If tories turn to right that would be delicious.

Compound their errors.

they might go through a few leaders, maybe farage could be one of them.

hopefully there will be some entertaining internecine warfare to come in the months ahead.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c51y2lqzxl8o

The first four don't count.

Happy to lay Cleverly, Patel, Braverman and Badenoch. It's a decent market on here.

The whole show is an irrelevance. Let’s just enjoy it. They have not learned anything.

It's politics as entertainment.

That's fine as long as the clowns never get near government again

Kemi shifted to centre... (ish)

The clowns are IN government. Even nobby might notice eventually.

Would only notice if the 14 year run of
Westminster circus was to end. 5 ring masters...
Some of them clowning around, when we needed a
strongman not a bearded lady.

It's difficult to find a strong favourite in this market, frankly no one appeals, most of them have baggage galore and are exposed by the previous administration.

Its a 280/30pc market with £55 traded ................

247k traded, 105%/89%

Sunak to see the year out at 20/1 ish not
the worst bet, although I guess they want new leader
for conference.

Absence of strong candidate to unify party suggests
they might just delay.

Unify the party = agree with the majority no nation loons or no deal. The consocialist party is doomed to mediocrity like the illiberal undemocratic party. Bye bye and good riddance.

They can unify to the left, to the right, or in the middle,
if a strong candidate emerges.

Your blinkers only allow you to look right.

No, most of the sensible people left or were encouraged to leave, it can only go centre left or lib dim loony left. In fact it might as well join the lib dims as it did in 2010 but on a permanent basis.

Oh dear, that's a very wrong, and very blinkered outlook.

Is lfc posting for you again?

I hope lfc will be back eventually, I doubt his ban is permanent. It's up to him whether or not he wants to request his posting rights be reinstated.

Braverman, Patel and to a lesser level Badenoch are all fishing in the same pond for votes. Cleverly can't find his fishing gear and only gets wheeled out in desperate situations when no one else will go on TV, he is a dud. Jenrick looks too baby faced and has some serious baggage, particularly that real estate deal which still stinks. Of the main contenders currently, Tugendhat looks the best try. I have some small bets on Barclay and Atkins.

i haven't looked at the mix of tory mps to see where the strength lies. braverman is likely to be popular with the party members but she may have gone too far down the rabbit hole to get mp support.

The rump contains a majority of no nation bureaucrat loving consocialists for a proper tory to be elected, I think Mr expletive is right with his choice of Tugendhat or other prominent wets.(Badenoch realises this hence the recent toadying).
My hope is that they will go down this route and that Suella will lead a mass defection to Reform to boost their MP count. Lee Anderson showed the way.

The icing on the cake would be that the remaining wets would so resemble the lib dims that they could just as well join them.

It'll be the new leader's job to bring the party together

Zero chance that will happen.

Bad enoch has already taken steps to cover centre
of party, whilst likely retaining her right wing
allies,... Marginalising, perhaps, a few others who
stick to hard right.

Bad Enoch is argumentative and aggressive in interviews, not up to much in debates. Starmer will destroy her at PM questions.

Oh, I'm not proposing backing her or voting for her, obviously
I won't have a vote. I'm just noting her positioning.

Spike Cleverly price coming in a little. Just don't bring your wife/girlfriend to any of his dinner parties.

Foinavon
11 Jul 24 14:12
I hope lfc will be back eventually

What ? you miss a bigoted racist who admitted he tells lies ?
Fionavon you are a weirdo !

I hope lfc will be back eventually, I doubt his ban is permanent.

Espero que lfc vuelva pronto.

I dont think many others want the bigoted racist back

..particularly the "south irish"

'Lay' Ms Bademoch at 3.1. She's too soon for another descendent of an immigrant to be leader. She's also too emotive, fiery and politically inexperienced and naive; she's no glue for her Party - the key ingredient of the next Tory leader.

God helps the UK if Robert Rancid is elected leader. He's as "good" as Mr Williamson the inept, once Defence and Education Secretary. Boths tasks were beyond him.

If Badenoch makes it to the members' vote then she wins. The key is whether the MP's can arrange that she never gets that far.

I don't think the actual process for electing the next Conservative leader has actually been decided yet.

Won't it be down to the 1922 committee and their new leader Bob Blackman?

That is correct nobby.

Blackman told the BBC News Channel that Cameron's backing of religious same-sex marriages was wrong "on principle" and that marriage had to be "between one man and one woman".[21] According to the Harrow Times, he was accused of hypocrisy by a former fellow Brent council colleague who claimed she had an 11-year affair with him whilst he was married.

In 2015, the compliance officer for the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA) made a judgement that Blackman had submitted 732 inaccurate mileage claims.[26] According to IPSA he claimed up to 10 miles for a two-mile journey, making him the highest-mileage MP, claiming almost twice the mileage as the 10 next-highest MPs.

After three A-levels, he studied maths and physics at the University of Liverpool, where he graduated with a BSc. While at Liverpool, he was president of the students' union.

There is clearly a split in the Conservative party about which direction they should go politically.

They are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Starmer has the centre right ground and Farage has the far right.

It'll be a very log road back into power.

The trouble for the Conservative Party is that half of the potential next leaders were voted out. Thank or blame Reform for that.

Basically Britain has no fecking talent

unitedbiscuits
unitedbiscuits13 Jul 24 17:48Joined: 27 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 19,053 | Blogger: unitedbiscuits's blog
The trouble for the Conservative Party is that half of the potential next leaders were voted out. Thank or blame Reform for that.

Blame the conservative party themselves for reneging on their manifesto promises and doing the exact opposite. A big chunk of their core vote had had enough and either stayed at home or voted for Reform of the Lib dims.

Jul 14, 2024 -- 10:27PM, Foinavon wrote:

unitedbiscuitsunitedbiscuits13 Jul 24 17:48Joined: 27 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 19,053 | Blogger: unitedbiscuits's blogThe trouble for the Conservative Party is that half of the potential next leaders were voted out. Thank or blame Reform for that.Blame the conservative party themselves for reneging on their manifesto promises and doing the exact opposite. A big chunk of their core vote had had enough and either stayed at home or voted for Reform of the Lib dims.

"The Brexit hunters. They voted in search of paradise and they didn't find it."

I count Starmer's as the fifth Govt trying to make a success of turning their back on their nearest and biggest market.

I count Starmer's as the fifth Govt trying to make a success of turning their back on their nearest and biggest market.



True but with the attraction of the UK to economic migrants we simply can't have free movement of workers.

We need to fix that attraction.

Lord Cruddas: Being a ‘broad church’ will be Tory ‘death warrant’
The Conservatives will have signed their own “death warrant” if the next party leader focuses on being a “broad church”, Lord Cruddas has said.

The Tory donor and former party treasurer wrote in the Conservative Post that “there will be a flight of further conservative support to other parties” without a “fundamental re-setting of conservative values by the Parliamentary Conservative Party”.

“Shamefully the conduct of many Conservative MPs on the question of their role in Parliament and the freedom of the individual has been lamentable,” Lord Cruddas said.

“These problems will become even more embedded over the next five years under Labour.

“Having a new Conservative Party leader who just fudges the issues and problems by hiding behind the banal statement of being a broad church would not just be a disgrace but a death warrant for the Conservative Party.”

Lord Houchen: Sunak replacement likely to be elected in October
Ben Houchen warned against a lengthy Tory leadership battle as he suggested the race to replace Rishi Sunak will conclude in October.

The Tory Mayor of Tees Valley said the Tories needed to settle on a “Goldilocks” timetable for choosing a new leader - not too long and not too short.

He said that it is possible to have “too much bloodletting” and suggested airing “dirty laundry” in public for too long would be damaging to the Conservative Party.

Lord Houchen told the BBC: “I don’t think it should be particularly long… what I am hearing within the Conservative Party is a natural timeline should probably be at some point in October, with the conference playing a significant role in a hustings or in that leadership debate to make sure that members can have a full and fulsome involvement in that.”

He added: “If you go too long you also get to a point which is a very purely Conservative politics one which is you can have too much bloodletting and you can have too much dirty laundry aired out in public.

“I think there is a Goldilocks thing, somewhere happy in the middle and I think most people are coalescing around an October date for the announcement of a new leader.”

Tom Tugendhat apparently going to be running. He has been sounding out support from MPs and is confident he will be in the contest with declaration expected within the next fortnight. Has to have a big chance as a centrist with little visible serious opposition for that sector of support.

Seemed an obvious centrist candidate.

Do tories have a left wing these days?

Just seems a very strong candidate to reach final two. All the extreme right wing lot will be fighting each other for votes while Tugendhat simply gathers centrists. Odds of around 8.0 look very appealing.

I agree.

The Blue Rinse are more on the Reformoaner agenda.

They will vote for a nutter. The thing is the Right have now split their vote. Cannot see that being reconciled until Farage is despatched and exposed as the self centred, egotistical charlatan that he is.

There will be a lot of smaller groups vying for votes.

Kemi Badenoch- You just feel she is out of her depth. Could make last two though but with her background may find it tough to beat any other rival.
Robert Jenrick- If you slammed the door on him, he would slide under it. Untrustworthy, doesn't appeal as leader potential and has that unlawful real estate issue always hanging over him. Fighting for same votes as Badenoch, Patel and Braverman.
Tom Tugendhat- As a very likely runner and possibly the only centrist, great chance of making last two.
James Cleverly- Spike will struggle for support as he has serious limitations but is happy to get wheeled out on TV when no one else will.
Priti Patel- Can't count, can't debate, can't be trusted. Overrated but could go close to making last two if she runs.
Suella Braverman- No possible chance.
Victoria Atkins- Dark horse who can't be ruled out. Best outsider.
Claire Cutinho- Just hasn't enough experience as yet but well thought of by many in the party.
Steve Barclay- Seen a lot worse 200/1 shots.

Can't believe an outright crook like Jenrick is seriously touted.

Surely they can't be that devoid of talent.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/apr/09/bafflement-over-tory-mps-admission-she-hacked-harriet-harmans-website

Badenoch another confessed lawbreaker.

A mere bagatelle,

Tom Tughendhat is a weak ,woke ,centrist ,wet ,liberal ...and just what the fake tories are looking for.

Priti Patel said to be entering the race. Laughable.

Surely this is just for positioning and to stake a claim in the shadow cabinet.

Jenrick was useless as a housing minister, I believe. The Tory must be scraping the barrel if he's a serious contender; Badenoch is too combative and comes across arrogant and lacking decorum in politics.

Jenryk is too mired with sleaze (Ashtongate) to be a serious candidate.
Patel the bully and the horrible Cruella Bravaman are proven breakers of the ministerial code and quite extreme, so they would be useless.

Trouble is that the Tories have not learned anything about what happens to parties on the extreme wing of their parties - they do not get elected.

Fair comment.

I'm laying badenoch in the 2.6-2.8 range, seems to low given the likely length of the contest.

Surely Sunak might be persuaded to stay on for a couple
of years. He's acted as a decent bloke since his
election howking

Too little too late

Eat out to spread Covid about.

Has little idea of the problems of the people

Jul 17, 2024 -- 1:39PM, Escapee wrote:

I'm laying badenoch in the 2.6-2.8 range, seems to low given the likely length of the contest.

I agree. She might win of course but those odds seem unrealistic at this very early stage. If you consider Priti Patel is around the 10.0 mark and the two of them will be fighting for the same votes, along with a couple of others, the 2.6 Badenoch price is poor value.

I think Ms Badenoch so soon after Sunak is an unlikely successor. I'd be glued to the tv debate between Badenoch, Patel and Braverman. I think they'll kick six bells out of one another. There's no love lost between these 3 candidates; the Tory men are either tarnished or too weak for a fight except perhaps Mr Hunt.

I'd vote for Mr Hunt and Braverman.

most likely they'll go for a bland grey caretaker leader for a year or two imho.

Patel & Braverman have plenty of complaints but zero practical solutions

Patel, Braverman and the like are only going to make matters worse with serious infighting amongst not only their own party but with Reform too. A recipe for annihilation part two.

Goid

Senior Tories have failed to reach agreement about a timetable for their leadership contest, with a big split existing between key figures in the party.

It means no decision will be made on selecting a new leader until at least next week, when the executive of the 1922 Committee of backbenchers will meet again.

The former prime minister Rishi Sunak is understood to have made clear that an interim leader would need to be selected before parliament’s recess if the party were to decide on a longer contest.

The party board held a five-hour meeting on Thursday where it is understood they were told no firm timetable had been agreed by the 1922 Committee executive.

A Conservative party spokesperson said: “The party board met today and had a good discussion about the options for the leadership process presented by the 1922 executive committee. The [committee] will meet again and announce the leadership process next week.”

Bob Blackman, the newly elected chair of the committee, said the meeting had set out the parameters for the contest.

A proposal had been put forward for candidates to submit their nominations before August, giving them the summer to make their case publicly. MPs would then whittle down the candidates to two early in September and open member-voting with a final hustings at party conference and a leader announced.

A faster contest is favoured by those in the party who are concerned about its financial peril and the concern that no donors will return while the party is rudderless. Party conference is also a key time to raise funds for the party. “There is no value in using that time for the old leader or to take chunks out of each other,” said one Tory source.

Another source said: “There isn’t a massive difference between the campaigns [on the timing] but there is an element of delusion on the part of some in the party that Sunak will just keep on going.”

A number of MPs are said to believe that Sunak’s performance at the king’s speech debate had crystallised the necessity of an interim leader if the contest were to go on beyond conference time.

Sunak spoke to defeated Conservative MPs at the Carlton Club later in the evening, going table to table and speaking to each group. He just kept on repeating “I’m sorry”, said a former MP, who was at the club event.

One senior Tory source said it was impossible to see how Sunak could continue as leader of the opposition when Starmer would consistently point to his record in government, and given he would have no authority to set direction or take a position on new policy.

“He’s been only motivated by the interests of the party and the country,” said one source close to Sunak.

A former MP expressed the concerns of others impatient for the process to move ahead. “The longer we allow Labour to go unmarked the more time we give them to do what we did to them in 2010 and set the longer-term narrative. We need to move.”

But other sources said the mood among MPs was building towards a longer contest and an interim leader, which would mean debate between the candidates taking place at conference but no voting until mid autumn. Some even favoured a contest lasting until 2025.

“We need to take our time to find a candidate, who will be in this for the long haul and has the endurance to do what it takes, not just someone who looks good in a short TV interview,” said one MP. “We’ve got a model right in front of us across the floor. Starmer showed that you can bring a party back from the brink after the Corbyn years. It should be doable for us. There are a lot of fairly slim Labour majorities.”

Some interesting analysis, but not that much use for punting as
it's rather neutral outcome.

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/whos-left-the-composition-of-the-new-parliamentary-conservative-party/?mc_cid=9b0551c80d&mc_eid=6060b648bc

..

the executive of the 1922 Committee of backbenchers ?   WAFLOW

Sir Graham Brady, the previous chair, became well known for his visits to Downing Street to tell Tory leaders their time as prime minister was up.

He dispatched Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss after they lost the confidence of the backbenchers.

Sir Graham stood down as an MP at the last election.

The chair is also who Tory MPs write to when they have no confidence in the party's leader; if they receive enough letters, a vote of no confidence is triggered.

Because Sir Graham stood back at the last election, the party has not been able to establish how Mr Sunak's replacement will be chosen.