Wheres the value in the betting markets with regards 4th July GE?

UK - Next General Election - Most Seats Without Labour

Conservatives 1.22.

Should be 1.01 imo

Probability doesn't work like that. Tories could be evens chances in 150 seats, ie the fav in all of them and therefore expected to win only in 75.

The problem is that the market doesn't by definition know which ones will lose.

I've simplified it just to explain the point.

The obvious skill is identifying the ones where evens doesn't reflect the true odds.

There are far more variables in this domestic general election than any other I have been involved in, betting wise. Labour majority is a lock obviously, but lots of the minutiae is quite unpredictable.

UB - suggest you lay the 2.18  50-99 seats for them then .

67.50 - 69.99% in turnout at over 10/1 seems a decent
sporting punt, if Reform and tactics are up for
driving out tories then could get up in high 60s.

Probability doesn't work like that. Tories could be evens chances in 150 seats, ie the fav in all of them and therefore expected to win only in 75.

The problem is that the market doesn't by definition know which ones will lose.

I've simplified it just to explain the point.


Indeed it doesn't, a simple uniform 2% swing either way could see
them all cop or all lose if they are true evs chances

Labour at 1.71 in Islington North. Survation poll for the constituency gave them a 14pt lead last week. Even allowing for Corbyn being a special case that's a lot to make up for an Independent.

Very small sample commissioned by a far left outlet. Maybe admitting you're voting for the defenestrated and humiliated Corbyn is not something you would want to do. I think it might have been using old school telephone. I can see the angle, but significant risk attached.

Very small sample commissioned by a far left outlet. Maybe admitting you're voting for the defenestrated and humiliated Corbyn is not something you would want to do. I think it might have been using old school telephone. I can see the angle, but significant risk attached.

Yeah but Survation are reputable even if Novara and Stats for Lefties aren't. Shy Tories I get but I've yet to meet a shy Corbynite - it's usually the first thing out of their mouths. I take your point that he may be damaged goods now. You're right about the methodology – a combination of landline and mobile data. Owen Jones is on the ground there campaigning – usually the kiss of death.

Commissioners do tend to get the results they want, even if the mechanics pass scrutiny. I'd be wary of this personally. Sample of 500, phone poll, biased commissioners. Lots of wealth warnings. You even have to trust people not to believe that voting for Corbyn isn't voting for Labour in the ballot box. Of course it doesn't mean Labour won't win, they probably will, but I wouldn't be basing my position solely on that poll. I actually backed Labour in IN and took my stake back after the poll was published and shifted the market.

Any seat in the South of England, back the LibDems to win any seat they came second to the tories in at the 2019 General Election.

Here is an example. Runnymede and Weybridge, back LibDems at 13.0 with Skybet.

islington north has been a fun one, flipped a few times between labour and JC, that may be done now, but maybe not

ilford north is curious
some person/people seem willing to back any other candidate, as in leanne mohamad, at seemingly crazy low prices, i've laid her at 3.5, not for any great shakes, last matched price currently showing 4.1?!
LM is a palestinian brit running as an independent, some dude on vote uk seems to be bigging up her chances to turn over wes streeting
https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/18339/ilford-north?page=4
skybets market on this has labour 1/33 but with LM's price suspended, dont really know how that works

UB - suggest you lay the 2.18  50-99 seats for them then .

Since you prompt a few ****-packet calculations, paolo47, I would rather be a backer than a layer in that market.

There are 650 seats but we can discount twenty to the peculiarities of the constituencies in NI and Brighton.

Expectation ceiling for Labour now is 500 but that would depend on a wipeout for the SNP in Scotland, where the Conservatives have only eight MPs, which leaves us with 130 squeezable seats. In which case the Conservative Party will certainly land in the 50-99 bracket.

It may be a failure of my imagination but - after a lifetime of proving that a vote for the Lib Dems is a wasted vote - I just cannot see the British electorate returning a yellow MP in the majority of those seats. Add to that, the Tories' record as the most successful and enduring political party in the history of the world cannot be dismissed: - potential future leaders are in vulnerable seats. We cannot expect Tory Party strategists to sacrifice their own future. Reform today is a not credible right-wing alternative to the Tory Party:- it doesn't even have a manifesto, it doesn't even have a future in 2025, depending on the caprice of the nicotine-stained-tree-frog.

So expect Fleet St to pitch for Sunak until midnight on Thursday.

First PMQs of the new government is on 24 July.

If enough people vote tactically, it would be Keir Starmer vs Ed Davey.

The Tories would be on the back benches, fuming and irrelevant. As they would be for the next 5 years.

Can only happen if people vote tactically.

Oops wrong Fred, muppet

Boris Johnson special.

Boris Johnson leader of tories at next election

Lay at 170

There's £20 to be taken under 500.

thats crazy, one thing im looking forward to is the next election finally being held, and that market closed!

Out to 180,must be somebody freeing up funds.

Or somebody forgot.

oh, jeepers, now ive had to look at it again, not pretty, red 300 pn yes, red 3 on no, roll on thursday

other way around i mean, not good, last bet placed july 22

august even, whatever, it was a badly judged market for me!

Next prime minister somebody wants 70 on Farage.

Probably needs Sunak to win, and hand over...

Sunak tory leader on Thursday morning

Somebody wants 150

bojo market may have been the one that caused politicspunter to toodle out of his edinburgh abode, not paying attention, and walking in front of a tram.
took a long time with the speed those trams go to see him off, theres word a few posters here may have got there in time for his final moments. RIP

Sunak tory leader on Thursday morning

Somebody wants 150 no

bojo market may have been the one that caused politicspunter to toodle out of his edinburgh abode, not paying attention, and walking in front of a tram.
took a long time with the speed those trams go to see him off, theres word a few posters here may have got there in time for his final moments. RIP

The spirit of politicspunter lives on (slight return) in yak hunt

most folk seem to be guessing in the 300s for labour and yet they are 6.2 to get less than 395
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.229292672

There's incumbancy to consider.

Looks a decent punt.

Guardian poll of polls

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/02/when-sunak-called-an-election-labour-was-22-points-ahead-has-anything-changed

Long story short, predicted seats won over twelve models:

Lib Dems 57+

Labour 454

Greens 2

SNP 17

Conservatives 101

https://x.com/Matt_building/status/1806413241410592971?s=19

..

Personally I think the carnage that the Tories will face is still under priced. The motivation to vote for them is minimal.

UK - Next General Election - Most Seats Without Labour

Conservatives 1.22.

Should be 1.01 imo


No drama. Woke up and the market was already settled.

On to the Next Conservative Leader market..