Could Tories win next GE ? -

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 43% (=)
CON: 27% (-3)
REF: 11% (+4)
LDM: 10% (-1)
GRN: 5% (-1)

Via
@BMGResearch
, On 28-30 November,
Changes w/ 11-12 October.

Traditional tory voters will never vote in sufficient numbers for someone with the wrong ethnic background.

With refuk on 11% in the polls is it any surprise the Tories are trying to woo Farridge?

The refuk figure has been shown to be hokem at by election after by election.

Sunak and Co would chit themselves if farridge
drops in his application and £3

Wishful thinking Polly. by elections are not the same thing. I would not be surprised if the Refuk share of the vote is around 15% at the next General election.

I would be surprised if refuk hit 15 % in their
top 100 seats, let alone average that over 650.

If it were proportional representation then yep
they could easily poll 15-25%

But it's not, and it's a big leap of faith to
get lift off for a new party in a first past the
post system... See social Democrats.. And numerous
books on breaking the mould of uk politics.

This site is predicting 420 (+222) seats for labour, just 149 (-216) for conservatives, if
election were held tomorrow.
8,000 sample using census data stratification to extrapolate a prediction for each seat.


https://lodestonecommunications.com/election-hub


Murdoch is going to have to come up with something astounding to turn it back in his favour.

Are there any Tory twats who think they will win? Sign in now if you do or forever shut up.

i am such a cynic that until they end up with less than 200 MPs i wont believe it. absolutely amazing given that after the last election many thought labour were gone forever and the tories would be in power ad infinitum.

It is, I agree.  And they only have themselves to blame.
If they turn on Sunak and boot him out, Starmer, as leader of the Opposition. will have presided over the removal of three Tory P.M's.  Never been known.  Ever!

SirNorbertClarke
25 Nov 23 15:14Joined: 11 Aug 21 | Topic/replies: 8,101 | Blogger: SirNorbertClarke's blog
The public aren't daft.


Now  then Nobby , any proof of that ?

Governments don't want too many educated people mate, look at your education system in the UK, (that age old problem of CLASS)  then check out the Health System

New poll - nearly a third of British voters undecided
who is best to lead the country …..

The fact that as Prime Minister Rishi met twice with Mad Dominic Cummings shows you how desperate and clueless the Conservatives are.

We've had 26 years of destructive socialism. Get ready for another five years of self-harm whichever party wins.

You voted for every one of them

Ha ha ha, mug.

If someone is prepared to change the political party they vote for hoping for something better

And it doesn’t happen - that rather proves the point , no ?

Gullible, easily led, mug, whatever

Every sensible voter is a floating voter.

To stick with one party no matter how sh!te they are is just stupid.

The Party of Boris Johnson was not the Conservative party of Margaret Thatcher.

Similarly the party of Michael Foot was not the Labour party of Tony Blair

Rumours that Corbyn has plans to form a new political party ( targeting labour left and Muslims

Could this split the labour vote and let in the tories ? …

Hopefully

The centre ground of politics beloved by Blair and Cameron ,is very crowded:
Starmer and the woke North London champagne socialists.
The wet whiny woke conservatives of "one nation" headed by Sunak.
Dead Davey and his progressive remainers.
All intent on destroying the UK.

Sunak is Starmer's ticket to 10 Downing Street, it's just a question if the 1922 brigade finally clock on and realise he's a dead duck, polls and betting there for all to see.

I think the Lying Tories will be broken on the rocks. The Far Right Nasty elements of their party will try and take over and they will become unelectable. Reform or Brexit types had their chance in 2019 and blew it.

It might be a good thing if they destroy the Tories but what would be better is if the Labour vote splintered and people did not vote for them as they have a Terrorist Sympathiser and a conservative Leader.

As i've said many times on these threads. This Labour party does not represent true Labour voters.
and this Conservative party does not represent true Tories.
A splinter group could well ruin it for either party

dambuster • January 8, 2024 5:09 PM GMT
As i've said many times on these threads. This Labour party does not represent true Labour voters.

How do you know that?

I agree with him,

Starmer says there is no money for schools or the NHS.

Where has it all gone Charlie?

£400 billion printed or borrowed for Covid. Where is it?

Why are we taxing income so highly and Capital or land?

There is more money than ever. Where is it and why is it not being taxed?

Surely Sunak is the person to question about that?

Jan 8, 2024 -- 7:06PM, yak hunt wrote:

Surely Sunak is the person to question about that?

Entirely agree.

There is more money than ever. Where is it and why is it not being taxed?




The banks have it, and, it's not taxed, but the government pays them
interest on it.

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 47% (+2)
CON: 20% (-2)
RFM: 12% (+4)
LDM: 8% (+1)
GRN: 7% (-1)

Via
@YouGov
, tbc.
Changes w/ 10-11 Jan.

Another 4.5% swing and they are no2

New boundary changes will favour tories

wild guess - NO



Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 47% (+2)
CON: 20% (-2)
RFM: 12% (+4)
LDM: 8% (+1)
GRN: 7% (-1)

Via
@YouGov
, tbc.
Changes w/ 10-11 Jan.

Starmers just there to install the tories long term,there's very little between them now so gammon filth will even vote labour now along with all those working class tories,an ever ending cycle of deliberate uselessness..the only good thing is things are going to get worse and worse
and with that people might open their minds abit more...It may tale a decade of the country being burned to the ground..

For people under 50 today's YouGov poll is:

Lab 60%
Con 10%
Green 10%
LD 9%
Reform 5%
SNP 3%

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1747926580804944138?s=19

..

Link to data^^^

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 45% (+1)
CON: 22% (-3)
REF: 12% (+1)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 6% (+1)

via
@RedfieldWilton
, 21 Jan

If anything, the tories position is becoming worse as time goes on.

Decimation would be nice

as an electorate respond to their lies, incompetence, greed and corruption

Labour extend their lead as Reform hit double-digits. They overtake the Lib Dems - who've hit a 9-month low - for 3rd place.

LAB: 44.5% (+11.6)
CON: 24.6% (-20.1)
RFM: 10.0% (+8.0)
LDM: 9.8% (-2.0)
GRN: 5.7% (+3.0)
SNP: 3.1% (-0.8)

Changes w/ GE2019.
http://electionmaps.uk/polling

Tories are almost in meltdown , but not quite yet

A bit like you, but you're closer.

Keep a lid on that temper of yours Charles

QED

I'm still saying May for the election

Is it important ?
The country is fecked which ever way you see it

Crazy Karteng intention to stand down at next election'
18K majority last time - only one Lab MP in the last 100 years or more.
apparently that's 50 Tories standing down.

The 1993 Canadian federal election was held to elect
members to the House of Commons of the 35th parliament of Canada

The governing Progressive Conservatives suffered a spectacular wipe - out
losing 154 of their 156 seats in one of the worst ever defeats for a governing
Party in the Western world

The liberal party won a majority government with 177 seats …

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 46% (+2)
CON: 20% (-4)
RFM: 13% (+2)
LDM: 9% (=)
GRN: 7% (-1)
SNP: 4% (+1)

Via
@YouGov
, 20-21 Feb.
Changes w/ 14-15 Feb.

still no

Sunak would lose his seat with that poll.

PM Sunak and Ms Badenoch losing their seats will be the icing on the cake.

Sam Freedman
@Samfr
·
48m
YouGov poll of London for the Evening Standard:

Labour: 52%
Con:       17%
LD:          10%
Green:   10%
Reform: 10%

Lowest ever Tory score in a London-only poll.

Reform U.K. is now polling at 14% , it’s highest ever -
and just 6 percentage points behind Conservatives
( YouGov )

If I get all my postal votes thru ,they will be on 18%

A secretive meeting took place last week in parliament
in which Tory mps were handed the profile of a person -
known only as candidate X - who could save the party
from catastrophe at the next election ….

They need to nearly double their vote wtf
What does interest me is that Liz Kendall shadow work secretary says.
"life on benefits is not an option under labour".
Now the tories promised to do this and didn't...........weak ,would have been slammed by wokery ,opposed by civil servants ,probably all three.
Maybe Labour will bring in policies the tories couldn't.

Wonder was it Dominic Cummings ,

Or perhaps even Boris …

Boris hastened the rot. The best weapon they could use is slashing immigration, it's what most of the public want. They've not only shown it can't be done, they've accelerated it to record proportions. 'Come and do a low wage job, and bring your family'. Come and do a two bob degree, and bring your family'. The Tories have nothing
in the tool box and will be smashed.

Looks that way saddo ,, the question is how many votes
reform U.K. take from tories and labour . Reform in theory
should a factor  right across England including labour constituencies

Too late to stop Labour this time I expect, but things will get interesting in the next five years
after more of the same.

They steal your life in 5 year chunks, letting you huff and puff in between.

Yes it can be frustrating if you let it and believe
the worst ,, but the surprising truth is this country is a very good place to live
and has been for the last 14? years , and everyone pretty much , I’m sure have been fine
these last 14? years

Don’t need to listen to the anti Tory voices which almost amounts to a severe form of mania
shouting outside Westminster .. and sometimes inside

The Zenith of our country has been passed and we were lucky to live it. It's been going downhill for fourteen years and more, much quicker now.

Agree saddo , that’s inevitable when you replace the
English people with something else

Watched an interesting programme a few days ago about a 50 million dollar
Art theft , the individual was French living in America
He disappeared along with the paintings and wasn’t seen for years , might have been 20 or 30 ,until this documentary
He was interviewed during which  and the thing was he didn’t seem to understand that this was theft and you could
see in his eyes , although he did shift in his seat slightly he didn’t actually understand
Said he had an invoice for the paintings which proved it wasn’t and he intended to pay it back
The woman interviewer became a bit exasperated at this and said , I don’t know if you are being
dishonest to me or yourself lol
Well that’s the mentality , at least an English person would have admitted it was theft , the paintings were gone and so was the money

Lol, the theft of tories over last 14 years
has not been admitted.

Are you being dishonest with me or yourself lfc?

Must admit I would have been tempted ,
picassos , and beautiful impressionist paintings etc , very beautiful and i do love art
It was back in the 1980/90s  about then

But if I stole them I wouldn’t have the brass neck to say forty years later and no paintings or money they wern’t stolen
I had an invoice for them

Latest poll has the nasty party at 25 seats, what this shower have done this past 14 years is unforgivable and finally the English are slowly realising what a shower of charlatans this current mob are, **** up to your eyeballs in the rivers and seas, NHS being rapidly privatised, record taxes, Victorian era diseases on the increase, record child poverty, theft from the public purse on a biblical scale to their donors, mates and themselves, food inflation and mortgage payments thru the roof, the list is endless. But apart from that thay have done fine job. Thay can't fight an election on anything they have done in office so the only thing left is culture wars which most of the public are wise too. Popcorn at the ready when the election comes, hopefully sooner rather than later.

https://twitter.com/jrc1921/status/1764608928996852049

j
@jrc1921
Labour's Liz Kendall:
'For all the Tory claims about being tough on benefits, over the next five years there will be 600,000 more people on sickness and disability benefits'


Liz Kendall Labour pro punish the ill,these people are vermin as said below victorian diseases,long covoid she doesn't even mention it waiting lists,everythings costing a fortune yes Kendall you gaslighting fck,there's 600,000 people extra that are ill..These Isael lobbyists going on about defence ffs,the country needs investment not austerity 2.0 again,what a sh1tshow they are absolutely vile..

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 46% (+1)
CON: 18% (-2)
RFM: 13% (+1)
LDM: 10% (=)

Via
@PeoplePolling
, 7 Mar.
Changes w/ 25 Jan.

Wow!

Absolutely beautiful to see the right wing vote split so much

It's been a long time since the Tories could be described as anything like right wing.

Theresa May jacking it in at the next GE

Fascist tories and 6 bob Lee racism being rejected

I don't think the Tories will win but I don't think Labour will get much of a majority. The SNP have been holding on to support far better than I thought they would (or deserve to) and will almost certainly win in Scotland with at least 40 seats. A hung parliament is still a distinct possibility.

no, it will be a landslide

how many seats Morpeth?

Maybe if the torys rowed back on the Palestine genocide like Biden they may get another few votes?

another in the long list like covid,brexit,they got well wrong.

Reform U.K. has its first MP - Lee Anderson

first of many ?

Maybe kneeler Starmer will take Lammy and foff to Ireland.
Veruca may be looking for a man to lead a "we need another referendum" campaign.

Labour lead at 25 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times     

CON 19 (-1)   
LAB 44 (=)   
LIB DEM 9 (=)   
REF UK 15 (+1)   
GRN 8 (+1)         

Fieldwork 19 - 20 March

New boundary changes are introduced for this years GE

In 2019 Tories won an 80 seat overall majority Replaying the 2019 election suggests
with the changes they would have gained a 94 seat majority over all other parties
with Labour losing 2 seats

Just got a bit more difficult for Starmer

Britain's top pollster has predicted Labour is almost certain to take power at the next general election.

Professor Sir John Curtice said there is a “99% chance of Labour forming the next administration".

He told Politico's Playbook: "It’s clearly a very small chance that the Tories are going to be in government after the autumn.”

Of course the Brexit party stood aside in 2019 aiding the Tories
This year there will be no such arrangement with the Reform party
Predicted to get about 15% of support across GB
This would leave Tories with an estimated 95 seats
Reform failing to gain any seats despite its 15% share of votes

I wonder if curtice has an account on hear
and is filling his boots.

100/1.....

A benefit of being an employee of any of the top polling companies must be a lovely sideline on the exchange markets.

To be fair the ability to read polls is still a window
into a lucrative sideline on hear, as some folk
simply back what they want to win, not what is
most likely to happen nor what the value punt is.

Extremely lucrative

How not to be a Turkey :

Well the working classes have had it pretty good , especially since Brexit
over these last few years under the Tory government  especially the low paid working  workers and those who wish to find well paid employment

If you don’t want to be a Turkey voting for Christmas ,, under no circumstance vote Labour or Liberal

Let us pray

Excellent advice lfc.

Nearly a quarter of voters who backed tories 2019
now plan to vote Reform U.K. : Redfield& Wilton survey

Which party do Tory voters from 2019 support now ?

Tories 42%
Reform 24%
Labour 18%
Libdem 4%
Greens 3%

^^^  WADC ^^^