Politics
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Xavier Bertrand is currently ahead of Le Pen according to the US site PredictIt. Bertrand is trading at 18 whereas the the BF decimal price of 7 has an implied probablity of 13 - a nice fat 5 point arb if you can trade both sites or perhaps a value bet if you take a view either way?
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I am on the Predictit forums. It is a useful site for info but of little use for betting purposes as you have to be based in the USA to place a wager I believe.
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The best market recently was the New York Mayoral election Democratic nominee.
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I spent some time today looking at this market. French politics is at best unpredictable. Macron himself came out of nowhere to win and the French electorate are notoriously fickle and prone to some unexpected swings of mass support. For that reason, this is a market to avoid for now as someone, currently not on the opinion poll radar might burst on to the scene. Currently there are three main contenders, Macron, Le Pen and Bertrand. With all three lumped in with other contenders in first round opinion polls, Macron comes out first, then Le Pen then Bertrand. In match ups Macron beats Le Pen, Bertrand beats Le Pen and Macron v Bertrand is a toss up. There are a few other candidates such as Pecresse and Melenchon for example who currently command the support of 10-14% in polls and could easily become involved at the finish line.
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will they mention Marseilles
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