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InsiderTrader
30 Sep 20 11:14
Joined:
Date Joined: 25 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 14,569 | Blogger: InsiderTrader's blog
He got through the first debate with no big health issues.

He avoided naming his supreme court picks and tangented well to health care in that segment.

He has distanced himself from the far left on green issues, the police and said he is the Democratic Party.

He is well ahead in the polls currently.

Covid is still killing almost a thousand people daily in the USA.

The media is against Trump more than ever.

4 years ago HRC was in a far worse position with the email scandal and was a shorter price that Biden.
Pause Switch to Standard View IS BIDEN VALUE AT 1.64?
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Report Jumping-cuckoo-monk September 30, 2020 12:18 PM BST
Of course he is. We should all sell/remortgage our houses, put funds on JB and when he deffo wins donate the winnings to BLM.
Report DanielKoellerer September 30, 2020 12:21 PM BST
Laugh creating a thread that you can TTT on election day? So you can claim, I said Biden was value all along...

TO answer your question - yes 1.64 is still overpriced.

1.25 vs 5.0 would be about right at the moment IMO.
Report Jumping-cuckoo-monk September 30, 2020 12:22 PM BST
Post your bet.
Report DanielKoellerer September 30, 2020 12:25 PM BST
I don't need to satisfy some plonker off the betfair forum, thanks though.
Report Jumping-cuckoo-monk September 30, 2020 12:27 PM BST
Yeah, as I thought.
Report DanielKoellerer September 30, 2020 12:28 PM BST
Crazy
Report Fatslogger September 30, 2020 12:30 PM BST
DK, you’ll be totally amazed to hear that J-c-m doesn’t really want to engage in a real and civilised debate about betting value.

Yes, Biden remains amazing value at 1.64, although I’m quite surprised that it’s IT suggesting it.
Report Jumping-cuckoo-monk September 30, 2020 12:30 PM BST
You must be Crazy not to bet on a 1.64 shot when you rate it 1.25
But you don't bet do you?
Just another forum anti-trump gobsh1te
Report DanielKoellerer September 30, 2020 12:33 PM BST
He's probably only suggesting/asking that Biden is value to cover his back, considering all the other threads he's started.

But fair enough if he's altering his opinion / position if his opinion on the market has really changed.

The fact it took a completely predictable 'debate' to help change his view of this race is worrying though.
Report Jumping-cuckoo-monk September 30, 2020 12:33 PM BST
Fats, You don't think a punter should look for an edge on a betfair market on politics even if he doesn't believe in the politics of the selection?
Interesting
Do you just bet on who you agree with politically?
How much you lose on Hilary?
Report Fatslogger September 30, 2020 12:34 PM BST

Sep 30, 2020 -- 6:33AM, Jumping-cuckoo-monk wrote:


Fats, You don't think a punter should look for an edge on a betfair market on politics even if he doesn't believe in the politics of the selection?InterestingDo you just bet on who you agree with politically?How much you lose on Hilary?


Helllloooo straw men!

Report DanielKoellerer September 30, 2020 12:34 PM BST
He is well ahead in the polls currently.

Covid is still killing almost a thousand people daily in the USA.

The media is against Trump more than ever.

4 years ago HRC was in a far worse position with the email scandal and was a shorter price that Biden.


It's almost as though he's just realised those realities.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 30, 2020 12:36 PM BST
Fire and ice returns
Report politicspunter September 30, 2020 12:38 PM BST
I think Biden is closer to a 1.3 shot at the moment, Trump around 4.5.
Report InsiderTrader September 30, 2020 12:42 PM BST
The market move suggests that Biden did better in the debate than the low bar set.
Report DanielKoellerer September 30, 2020 12:42 PM BST
Personally I think he was 1.3ish before the debate but after that ****-show from Trump (appealing to absolutely no undecided voters / or anyone who isn't his base) I see him closer to 1.2/1.25 now. Wouldn't expect the tightening of any national polls in the next week or so.
Report DanielKoellerer September 30, 2020 12:43 PM BST
The market move suggests that Biden did better in the debate than the low bar set.

Only the very naive thought he'd somehow keel over or forget where he was. It is also possible that Trump did worse than the low bar set.
Report Jumping-cuckoo-monk September 30, 2020 12:44 PM BST
That was a low blow, apologies.
Now get back to work!
Report politicspunter September 30, 2020 12:45 PM BST

Sep 30, 2020 -- 6:43AM, DanielKoellerer wrote:


The market move suggests that Biden did better in the debate than the low bar set.Only the very naive thought he'd somehow keel over or forget where he was. It is also possible that Trump did worse than the low bar set.


Trump came across as a bit desperate. He hasn't got a clear cut attack strategy that appears to stick and frankly, it might be too late anyway.

Report InsiderTrader September 30, 2020 12:46 PM BST

Sep 30, 2020 -- 6:43AM, DanielKoellerer wrote:


The market move suggests that Biden did better in the debate than the low bar set.Only the very naive thought he'd somehow keel over or forget where he was. It is also possible that Trump did worse than the low bar set.


I am not making a prediction or looking for insults.

I do not deal in certainties like you do.

Just asking a question.

You say yourself you think Biden's chances have improved since the debate.

Report DanielKoellerer September 30, 2020 12:49 PM BST
Trump performed worse than I thought he would. And my expectation was fairly low already ! Even a fair number of his supporters do not like his twitter rages, yet he performed the equivalent out on stage.

Biden performed at about the level I expected.
Report Fatslogger September 30, 2020 12:52 PM BST

Sep 30, 2020 -- 6:44AM, Jumping-cuckoo-monk wrote:


That was a low blow, apologies.Now get back to work!


You are right, I do have better things to do than pin labels on trolls. Anyone with even half an eye open would hardly need the help anyway.

Report kevinglass September 30, 2020 12:55 PM BST
Biden's chances certainly have not diminished. I'm on at 1.83 average, and I'm happy with that. Backed between 1.75, for quite a bit. Topped up at 1.98 for a bit more.

I also think it's more 1/4 or so for a Biden win. Trump has to appeal to non Trump voters, and he seems incapable or unwilling to do so.

I must also admit I want him to lose, and will have a big smile on my face if he does, for financial and other reasons.

I try not to let that cloud my bet. The polls are the things that do that. Trump needs so much to go right between now and November, which is why he's 1/4 or so in my book.

He's an egomaniac bully, with narcassistic tendencies. Being the President for nearly 4 years has only magnified these conditions.
Report InsiderTrader September 30, 2020 12:59 PM BST
Trump needs so much to go right between now and November, which is why he's 1/4 or so in my book.

I think Trump is a lot bigger than a 1/4 shot at this stage. Even pre-Covid when the economy was firing he was much bigger than that.
Report DanielKoellerer September 30, 2020 1:02 PM BST
Correct Kevin.

He needs everything to go right and all the stars to align on the 3rd November.
Report edy September 30, 2020 1:07 PM BST
InsiderTrader • September 30, 2020 12:46 PM BST

I am not making a prediction or looking for insults.

I do not deal in certainties like you do.

Just asking a question.

You say yourself you think Biden's chances have improved since the debate.


^

You sounded pretty certain and looking for insults when you opened a thread in which you insisted that Biden should be withdrawn from the nomination and that the evil Dems and his family are pushing the old man into a horrible, cruel situation without the senile man even realising what's being done to him.
Report Dr Crippen September 30, 2020 1:08 PM BST
Biden just needs the voters that turn out to think the same way as the media and the Biden backers.

What could go wrong?
Report Fatslogger September 30, 2020 1:30 PM BST
IT, I’m with edy on finding your Biden conversion to be a bit hard to explain. I doubt anyone thinking Biden should be short odds is disputing that the debate strengthened his position, although personally I’d have had him nearly as tight as 1.2 or so before it and only marginally better after. The debate going slightly his way, as was my expectation, only helps him a little by removing some uncertainty. The questions have to be around what you made the odds before and after the debate and why, if indeed you think it shifted the odds so much, you think that.

Personally I just see this as the market waking up a bit and correcting itself somewhat, although I still think it’s on hard drugs.
Report Jack Bauer '24' September 30, 2020 3:54 PM BST
I expect another Trump price crash caused by his fanboys when the October surprise is revealed in the form of the Barr/Durham report, but it will ultimately prove to be yet another damp squib and Trump suffers a humiliating defeat.
Report winningthought September 30, 2020 4:06 PM BST
This is looking more like a 2016 redux with every passing minute. Hopefully we get 1.25 Biden on election day just like last time.

If Trump was able to cheat his way into the White House as an outsider in 2016, think how much better he'll be able to do it now that he is in the White House Cool
Report timbuctooth September 30, 2020 4:28 PM BST
winningthought 30 Sep 20 16:06 
This is looking more like a 2016 redux with every passing minute. Hopefully we get 1.25 Biden on election day just like last time.

Hilary was 1.09 on election day
Report DanielKoellerer September 30, 2020 4:28 PM BST
Biden REFUSED to use the term, LAW & ORDER! There go the Suburbs.

Biden wants to Pack the Supreme Court, thereby ruining it. Also, he wants no fracking, killing our Energy business, and JOBS. Second Amendment is DEAD if Biden gets in! Is that what you want from a leader? He will destroy our Country! VOTE NOW USA.

Nobody wants Sleepy Joe as a leader, including the Radical Left (which he lost last night!). He disrespected Bernie, effectively calling him a loser!



Trump tweets this morning look SO desperate. PLEASE believe these tweets.
Report winningthought September 30, 2020 4:32 PM BST
Hilary was 1.09 on election day

Wrong. Hillary hit 1.09 early on as the results were coming in.
Report Jumping-cuckoo-monk September 30, 2020 4:40 PM BST
That was a Great Day Grin
Report timbuctooth September 30, 2020 4:48 PM BST
winningthought 30 Sep 20 16:32 
Hilary was 1.09 on election day

Wrong. Hillary hit 1.09 early on as the results were coming in.

No, I`m right actually, as those results were coming in on election day, so she DID hit 1.09 on election day.
Report DanielKoellerer September 30, 2020 4:52 PM BST
"Will you shut up, man!" Laugh
Report winningthought September 30, 2020 4:54 PM BST
Pre-match on the day she was 1.25. There was no guarantee you would have got any lower. No doubt you doubled down at 1.09.
Report timbuctooth September 30, 2020 5:03 PM BST
If you want to jump in and get snotty over details, maybe it would help if you had your details right!
Report winningthought September 30, 2020 5:06 PM BST
Idiot.
Report edy September 30, 2020 5:13 PM BST
Uh oh, the gloves are off. The two biggest Trump fans going for each other's liver.
Report winningthought September 30, 2020 5:14 PM BST
I'm bigger.
Report politicspunter September 30, 2020 5:17 PM BST
You have spelt lover with an i
Report winningthought September 30, 2020 5:18 PM BST
Laugh
Report jollyswagman September 30, 2020 5:21 PM BST
trader is bigly bigger which beats you both
Report Fatslogger September 30, 2020 5:23 PM BST
Trader is slipping badly in his Trump love today.
Report jollyswagman September 30, 2020 5:27 PM BST
what price will you give me on him returning to 'form' in a very short space of time? (2p is my bigly bet)
Report dave1357 September 30, 2020 5:30 PM BST

Sep 30, 2020 -- 10:40AM, Jumping-cuckoo-monk wrote:


That was a Great Day


You weren't even a betfair member on that day

Report dave1357 September 30, 2020 5:32 PM BST
Does the thread think the shopping channel boys have accounts in reserve or they buy them on the net?
Report dave1357 September 30, 2020 5:33 PM BST
Maybe they get relatives to open them after they get banned.
Report winningthought September 30, 2020 5:36 PM BST
There is a fair chance that Jumping-cuckoo-monk was alive in 2016. T'was a Great Day apparently.
Report timbuctooth September 30, 2020 5:39 PM BST
It was one of the Greatest Days in Mankind`s History, our last chance to save civilisation from evil leftie globalists. Four more years will set them back a generation, another SCOTUS or two will wipe this scourge from America for a lifetime.
Report Jumping-cuckoo-monk September 30, 2020 5:42 PM BST
Yeah Dave3457 I was alive when Hilary got beat so was a Great Day.

I didn't have to be a forum member to enjoy it

There is a whole other world away from t'internet you know
Report Foinavon September 30, 2020 6:21 PM BST
I didn't watch the debate as it was well past bedtime but having read some reports and watched a few clips I'm appalled by some of the antics. I found the replies on both sides regarding the violence and racism rather shocking both should have condemned it absolutely and distanced themselves from the protagonists.
Is Biden's price right now? Maybe but no telling where this will go so I'm out of the market for now, wait and see how the public reacts and if Biden agrees to participate in the remaining debates.
Report politicspunter September 30, 2020 6:32 PM BST
Or Trump even?
Report Foinavon September 30, 2020 6:42 PM BST
I think Trump will be all for another go as he will learn from his mistakes (if he listens to his advisers). Biden has shown that he can still stand up and debate so has nothing more to prove. I thought there was a possibility before this debate that he could have been pulled in favour of Harris, that looks unlikely now which is why I have changed my mind about this price.
Since I had posted my original lay on here I thought I should make this clear.
Report politicspunter September 30, 2020 6:45 PM BST
Can you see a reasonable strategy for Trump to adopt now? He is running out of time and folks are already voting.
Report Foinavon September 30, 2020 6:50 PM BST
He needs to act presidential, distance himself emphatically from the Proud Boys and make no more gaffes. Is that so difficult?
Report Fatslogger September 30, 2020 6:52 PM BST

Sep 30, 2020 -- 12:50PM, Foinavon wrote:


He needs to act presidential, distance himself emphatically from the Proud Boys and make no more gaffes. Is that so difficult?


I don’t think even an excellent performance in the remaining debates will have a big influence on the race but what in you’ve seen so far from Trump makes you think an even plausible competent effort is within his scope?

Report politicspunter September 30, 2020 6:55 PM BST
In the debate Trump struck me as a man who knew he was beat and was trying any desperate attempt to make the race competitive but failed miserably. Not only did he fail, he made things worse, possibly beyond redemption.
Report Foinavon September 30, 2020 6:56 PM BST
In the next debate, if it takes place, he needs to be more defensive rather than acting like an attack dog. Perhaps it was valid first time to see if he could unsettle Biden but he didn't succeed and he left himself open to attacks which he didn't counter adequately.
Report the old nanny ;-) September 30, 2020 6:57 PM BST
Trump was like a Raging Bull , Biden is far from articulate, serious issues when mentioning numbers  , A sad state of affairs for the Yanks .
Report edy September 30, 2020 7:00 PM BST

Sep 30, 2020 -- 12:50PM, Foinavon wrote:


He needs to act presidential, distance himself emphatically from the Proud Boys and make no more gaffes. Is that so difficult?


LaughLaugh

Report politicspunter September 30, 2020 7:02 PM BST
One thing is certain, the tv audience for the next debate will be way down on the first one. That means fewer undecided voters and there might not be many left now anyway. One thing that polling companies have shown to be very consistent is that 90%+ of folks who have made their mind up say there is no possible chance whatsoever that they are going to change their vote.
Report DanielKoellerer September 30, 2020 7:04 PM BST
Drop out?
Report DanielKoellerer September 30, 2020 7:05 PM BST
Can you see a reasonable strategy for Trump to adopt now? He is running out of time and folks are already voting.

Drop out.
Report Foinavon September 30, 2020 7:54 PM BST
I have not written Trump off at this stage, I think it would be a mistake.
Report tanglefoot September 30, 2020 7:54 PM BST
Biden wants to kill all the white bunnies,now how can anybody vote for such a man.
Report Fatslogger September 30, 2020 7:56 PM BST

Sep 30, 2020 -- 1:54PM, Foinavon wrote:


I have not written Trump off at this stage, I think it would be a mistake.


Nobody has written him off but what’s your assessment of the odds?

Report 1st time poster September 30, 2020 7:56 PM BST
you think the morons are on the stage ,untill you listen to the screeching,screaming,blonde bimbo stepford wives in the spin room, and realise the sane ones are really on the stage
Report the old nanny ;-) September 30, 2020 7:58 PM BST
Crazy never seen the Like , Chaos a fine description Laugh
Report LoyalHoncho September 30, 2020 8:06 PM BST
For me he is like death warmed up.  I don't wish the man harm but he looks like he could pop his clogs on any near-future day that dawns.  He might not make the election in November, he might not make the Inauguration in Jan.  If he did win the election and snuffed it before the Inaug. would the books recognise him as president?
Anyway imagine the muppet as president, in adversarial mode with Putin or Xi and shouting over - "Oh why don't you just shut up"?!  lmao.  And so will they be.
Report Foinavon September 30, 2020 8:07 PM BST
I think the Exchange prices are about right at this point in time, Slogger. I don't see a trading edge as I have no clue to which way it will go.
Report Fatslogger September 30, 2020 8:10 PM BST
Fair enough Foin. Did you feel the debate rightly moved the odds a lot or was it an overreaction? Personally I thought an overreaction to the debate but still nowhere near a big enough correction given the polling.
Report politicspunter September 30, 2020 8:13 PM BST

Sep 30, 2020 -- 2:06PM, LoyalHoncho wrote:


For me he is like death warmed up.

Report politicspunter September 30, 2020 8:14 PM BST
LoyalHoncho • September 30, 2020 8:06 PM BST
For me he is like death warmed up.  I don't wish the man harm but he looks like he could pop his clogs on any near-future day that dawns.  He might not make the election in November, he might not make the Inauguration in Jan.  If he did win the election and snuffed it before the Inaug. would the books recognise him as president?
Anyway imagine the muppet as president, in adversarial mode with Putin or Xi and shouting over - "Oh why don't you just shut up"?!  lmao.  And so will they be.

The bookies settle on the electoral college result in November.
Report Fatslogger September 30, 2020 8:19 PM BST
You can also lay Trump rather than back Biden.
Report Foinavon September 30, 2020 8:26 PM BST
I think the shorter price is justified because Biden was able to show he still has some mental faculty and the possibility of him being replaced by Harris has receded (as I suggested earlier).
Overreaction? Might be but not enough for me to bet on. If I had to rate the candidates I would come to a different conclusion but what I think about them doesn't matter, it's the American public and how the candidates are being portrayed by the US media which will decide the issue.
Report Fatslogger September 30, 2020 8:37 PM BST
I guess that’s all sensible, although I’ve traded the Trump rather than the Biden price and he’s gone out miles. It’s close to a zero sum game between the two of them now. Really, it always should have been. Biden showing he wasn’t completely falling apart demented (which was already obvious) was hardly a tall order and yet it’s moved the prices miles. As I say though, not enough, so I have a conflict of betting principles.
Report breadnbutter September 30, 2020 9:00 PM BST
What?
Report LoyalHoncho September 30, 2020 9:18 PM BST
Thank you politicspunter.  Always better to be sure.  Pestana wasn't initially paid out in the Irish Derby as a sixth even though it made the final six but d.n.f.  Bookies will find a way.  Grin
Report Dr Crippen September 30, 2020 9:51 PM BST
How would one calculate value on an event such as this when we're at the mercy of  opinion polls?
Report Foinavon September 30, 2020 11:41 PM BST
With difficulty, Dr C.
We have seen how unreliable these markets and polls have been in the past and we cannot be sure things will be any different this time.
People come to different conclusions depending on whether they are betting on final outcome or market movement and we have seen some suggesting Biden should be much shorter 1.2 to 1.25 basing their judgement on opinion polls as far as I can tell. Others, aware of past history would lay short prices based on this. The market is a synthesis of different opinions based on all the known information and we have just seen how new information can produce a significant market move. If you are a trader you will want to assess if this move has been overdone or not. You will also want to assess the time available and the possibility of new information emerging which might affect the market whether or not it affects the outcome.
You have been around long enough to know all this, so why ask?
Report Richie_Burnett October 1, 2020 3:04 AM BST

Sep 30, 2020 -- 2:07PM, Foinavon wrote:


I think the Exchange prices are about right at this point in time, Slogger. I don't see a trading edge as I have no clue to which way it will go.


Yesterday was the most blatantly obvious trading edge ever - and I know **** all about politics and I'm not a trader!

Report lfc1971 October 1, 2020 7:50 AM BST
I thought so as well
Report Foinavon October 1, 2020 10:43 AM BST
The price has moved 2 ticks since I made my comment to fatslogger yesterday. You are talking about a prior event.
Report Dr Crippen October 1, 2020 11:30 AM BST
Thanks for your reply Foinavan.

Why did I ask?

To start a conversation with someone less knowledgeable than yourself probably.
Report Foinavon October 1, 2020 11:40 AM BST
Apologies for pre-empting that, it wasn't intentional.
Report Dr Crippen October 1, 2020 12:46 PM BST
No problem at all Foinavon.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- October 1, 2020 8:05 PM BST
1.58
Report politicspunter October 1, 2020 8:20 PM BST
2.84 Trump being matched on exchanges.
Report Dr Crippen October 1, 2020 8:34 PM BST
Think the Don made himself look bad in the debate so his mates could get a better price?






No
Report DanielKoellerer October 1, 2020 9:01 PM BST
Does the idea of a black female president frighten you? Happy
Report Fatslogger October 1, 2020 9:16 PM BST
Part of Trump’s pandemic problem was his refusal to take any responsibility for it. At times it’s amazing how bad he is at playing slightly against type in his own self interest. Imagine how dangerous he’d have been if he’d just been a bit brighter.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- November 6, 2020 1:38 AM GMT
Ttt
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