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Angoose
25 Oct 19 11:00
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Date Joined: 18 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 24,312 | Blogger: Angoose's blog
On the 23rd of June 2016, the electorate of the United Kingdom made their way to polling stations.

33,551,982 votes were cast.
17,410,742 placed their cross in the box marked with the nebulous term of Leave.
16,141,241 placed their cross in the box marked with the clear term of Remain.

51.89% indicated a willingness to move forward towards an undefined future state with no defined plan.
48.11% indicated a willingness to move continue with existing arrangements, subject to future parliamentary events.

That was 1,219 days ago, approximately twice the gestation period of an elephant, elephants having the longest gestation period of all mammals.

There is an old saying that states that elephants never forget.
However, we now have two entire generations of elephants who can't even remember the glorious days of the bus in June 2016.

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Replies: 50
By:
Angoose
When: 26 Oct 19 09:09
It is now 1,220 days since 51.89% of the participating electorate indicated a willingness to move forward towards an undefined future state with no defined plan.

We continue to have an undefined future state, with no defined plan to take us there.

Meanwhile, there were 696,271 live births in England and Wales in 2016, 679,106 live births in England and Wales in 2017, and 657,076 live births in England and Wales in 2018.

That's over two million new citizens in England and Wales alone that are continuing to wait expectantly for a definition of the future state that is being planned for them.

Maybe, amongst them, are the individuals who can provide the urgently needed clarity on the enormous constitutional change that the nation remains unable to define.
By:
Angoose
When: 26 Oct 19 10:19
Very lazy cutting and pasting from the doctor today Sad
By:
Angoose
When: 27 Oct 19 09:45
It is now 1,220 days since 51.89% of the participating electorate indicated a willingness to move forward towards an undefined future state with no defined plan.
We continue to have an undefined future state, with no defined plan to take us there.

Meanwhile, there were 525,048 registered deaths in England and Wales in 2016, 533,253 registered deaths in England and Wales in 2017, and 541,589 registered deaths in England and Wales in 2018.

That's approximately 1.6 million people in England and Wales alone that have passed away since they were asked to answer a question that still has been unable to provide a definition of the intended future state, nor a plan of how we would get there.
By:
Angoose
When: 28 Oct 19 08:03
It is now 1,221 days since 51.89% of the participating electorate indicated a willingness to move forward towards an undefined future state with no defined plan.
We continue to have an undefined future state, with no defined plan to take us there.

On May 13 1221, Emperor Juntoku was forced to abdicate, and was briefly succeeded by his 2-year-old son Emperor Chūkyō, on the throne of Japan.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 28 Oct 19 11:37
Angoose's anti-Brexit thread No 300
By:
politicspunter
When: 28 Oct 19 11:41
Brian will see you right Crippen.
By:
moisok
When: 28 Oct 19 20:01
wouldn't it be better to wait another 10 years to make sure
By:
Johnny The Guesser
When: 28 Oct 19 21:43
We have lived with remain for over 40 years. 17.4m voted for CHANGE.

How can it be democratic to just ignore them and carry on regardless ?
By:
SaveTheWhales.
When: 28 Oct 19 21:59
However, we now have two entire generations of elephants who can't even remember the glorious days of the bus in June 2016.

We really dont. You'd be looking at around 20 years for two elephant generations.

Weasels would have been a better choice you could have had 8 generations of those.

You're welcome.
By:
Lee Ho Fooks
When: 28 Oct 19 22:09
JTG - Ignore them? The premise of the vote was flawed. It was said it was a binary choice & it went 52.89/48.11 but it wasn't a binary choice. The remainers lost by polling 48.11%. Now had they been the side that polled 51.89% that would have been the end of it because every single remain vote was on the understanding that we would remain full stop, there wan't a remain with/without a deal etc etc etc. However the leavers polled 51.89% but because the leave option wasn't a binary option (how many of their vote was for no deal, how many for a hard/soft/customs union/no Irish border/Irish border in the N Sea etc etc etc) we've been arguing ever since - and will continue to argue because of this.
By:
Johnny The Guesser
When: 28 Oct 19 22:26
There were only two options on the ballot paper.  Does that make all of the leave votes somehow invalid ?

We could only answer the question that was asked.

Let's just suppose that Remain do win a 2nd Referendum by 52% - 48%....That's still a big chunk of the population unhappy and voting for CHANGE.

We are a democratic nation - What compromises will be offered up to the 48% by ways of increasing our control over our sovereignty , laws, money , borders etc. ?

I'll tell you - Precisely NOTHING  - everything will just carry on exactly as before.

And you reckon that's OK ?  -  Long live democracy !!
By:
lfc1971
When: 28 Oct 19 22:33
The important thing is to get out by any means possible . Forget democracy , that’s no longer important in the U.K.
By:
Lee Ho Fooks
When: 28 Oct 19 22:48
You asked two questions. If you re-read what I said I think you'll find that I've already answered them.
By:
lfc1971
When: 28 Oct 19 22:57
People ( remainers) are forgetting what the referendum was asking and what was meant to happen
We were meant to leave .... immediately , the morning after , as soon as the votes were in
By:
lfc1971
When: 28 Oct 19 23:01
There should have been no more payments to the EU from that date , and all eu MPs should have come home that morning after the referendum
By:
lfc1971
When: 28 Oct 19 23:02
Never to go back
By:
Kelly
When: 28 Oct 19 23:11
Lee Ho Fooks post of 22.09 sums it up perfectly . Leave vote took no account of the technicalities involved in leaving . Remain campaign was not scary enough in warning of the problems involved in leaving , particularly in relation to Northern Ireland . And the presumption that regional circumstances would be subsidiary to overall voting was not spelled out sufficiently .

The argument for another vote is overwhelming . All the remain voters I know are happy to accept that a second leave vote should be honoured if it happens , but subject to Parliamentary approval in case the ERG lot hi jack the democratic process again in that circumstance .  The people don't trust the Conservatives to negotiate a sensible fair leave deal . Boris and co just want to cliff jump for the hell of it . Most of them have parachutes , the rest of us don't .
By:
lfc1971
When: 28 Oct 19 23:12
But it’s ok.  We’ve wasted over 3 years
And are just now getting back to the start ... completely  wasted years
By:
lfc1971
When: 28 Oct 19 23:17
You see what we will do (or should do) on Oct 31 or jan 1

Is what we should have done all those years ago
And leave immediately the eu, sm , cu , ecj and stop freedom of movement

Nothing’s changed , we are just over 3 years late ..
By:
lfc1971
When: 28 Oct 19 23:23
There has been no reason , and no point
In us being in the eu for these last three and a half years

No point at all
By:
Johnny The Guesser
When: 28 Oct 19 23:48
I know plenty of people that voted remain even though they felt there were plenty of changes that they would like to see to our future relationship with the EU , and to the manner in which the EU conduct themselves. On balance they felt the best option was to push for change from inside the EU.

So, don't kid yourselves that all remainers love everything about the EU.

Similarly there are plenty of leavers that appreciate loads of the good stuff that the EU has done , but on balance , over the longer term , feel that leave is the best option.
By:
Johnny The Guesser
When: 28 Oct 19 23:53
So to Remain with no change is probably the most undemocratic option of all.
By:
Angoose
When: 29 Oct 19 00:25
Even if people vote for it?
By:
Angoose
When: 29 Oct 19 00:33
By:
Angoose
When: 29 Oct 19 07:51
It is now 1,223 days since 51.89% of the participating electorate indicated a willingness to move forward towards an undefined future state with no defined plan.
We continue to have an undefined future state, with no defined plan to take us there.

On August 6 1223, Louis VIII was crowned King of France.
He reigned until 1226, having previously reigned as King of England between 1216 and 1217.
By:
Johnny The Guesser
When: 29 Oct 19 09:13
You are seriously deluded , and in my opinion , make yourself look more than a little silly , if you believe all Remainers love everything about the EU.

"ALL leavers are confused and didn't know what they were voting for.

ALL Remainers are 100% believers in everything the EU does"

That appears to be your argument ...?
By:
Angoose
When: 29 Oct 19 09:28
You are allowing your beliefs to cloud the words I have posted.
Where have I suggested, let alone stated, that I believe "all Remainers love everything about the EU".?

I am very much a process driven individual who believes that good decision making is enhanced by defining a clear path of your intentions.

Clearly understand the current state, define your preferred future state, measure the gaps, determine if they can be bridged, if they can, proceed to define a plan that will take you there.

1,223 days after the referedunm, the government of the day remains unable to define the desired future state.
Or, alternatively, they have defined it but are unwilling to share that definition with the public.

Take back control is not a definition of a future state, it is most certainly not a detailed plan of how to get there.

It is a slogan, no more, no less. A slogan quite deliberately designed to appeal to the emotions of a public who feel that they have been left behind, designed to bypass logical analysis.

If you don't belief me, then listen to Dominic Cummings, the man widely acknowledged as having coined the slogan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDbRxH9Kiy4

Part of the problem is that we tend to believe that our beliefs are the truth, and that the truth is obvious. They often aren’t, it rarely is.
Learn to remain objective, begin to realise that many of your negative thoughts, feelings, and behaviours are caused by misunderstandings that can be avoided.
By:
Johnny The Guesser
When: 29 Oct 19 09:44
"Leave =  Nebulous

   Remain =  Clear.."

Biased opinion or not ?
By:
Angoose
When: 29 Oct 19 09:56
Once again, you are allowing your beliefs to cloud your judgement.
I have not stated that choosing to remain in the EU provides a clear path to anything.
By:
Johnny The Guesser
When: 29 Oct 19 10:31
....I'm the one that allows my beliefs to cloud my judgement ...Silly

Are there any parts of our relationship with the EU that you would like to be changed ? 

...or is it just perfect ?..
By:
Angoose
When: 29 Oct 19 10:51
Where have I stated that either Remain = Clear or that current arrangements are perfect?
It would be helpful if you could acknowledge that I have made no such statements.

As stated above, I am a process driven individual.
This results in a strong belief on evidence based decision making and the benefits of a continual improvement culture.

Do you share such beliefs, or do you belief that the best decisions are made out of blind ignorance?
By:
Angoose
When: 30 Oct 19 08:45
It is now 1,224 days since 51.89% of the participating electorate indicated a willingness to move forward towards an undefined future state with no defined plan.
We continue to have an undefined future state, with no defined plan to take us there.

However, we do have an estimate prepared by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).
They have reported that Johnson's Brexit deal would leave the UK £70bn worse off than if it remained in the EU.

They concluded that GDP would be 3.5% lower in 10 years' time under the proposed deal.
The independent forecaster's outlook is one of the first assessments of how the economy will fare under the proposed deal.

NIESR said approval of the prime minister's deal "would reduce the risk of a disorderly outcome, but eliminate the possibility of a closer trading relationship with the EU".

Despite the agreement between the EU and the UK removing uncertainty, customs and regulatory barriers would "hinder goods and services trade with the continent leaving all regions of the United Kingdom worse off than they would be if the UK stayed in the EU," NIESR said.

"We estimate that, in the long run, the economy would be 3.5% smaller with the deal compared to continued EU membership," it added.
By:
Johnny The Guesser
When: 30 Oct 19 09:07
There was never any doubt that leaving the EU would have a cost. It was made clear to us all in the Government guidance issued to 27m homes.

The people obviously decided it was a price they were prepared to pay.

Better to be a poorer free man than a wealthier oppressed slave.
By:
flushgordon1
When: 30 Oct 19 09:09
They can't get forecasts correct for this year, they don't have a clue for ten years.
By:
Angoose
When: 30 Oct 19 09:18
You do make me laugh Johnny, but still waiting for your views on evidence based decision making and the benefits of a continual improvement culture.
By:
impossible123
When: 30 Oct 19 10:42
£70bn is still cheaper than propping up economically pariah EU member states annually at no less than £8bn - probably more given a possible European Army and admission of more economically pariah new EU members.

Economic forecasts are subject to (varying) parameters thus highly prone to inaccuracy and world events.
By:
Johnny The Guesser
When: 30 Oct 19 14:09
I'm all in favour of evidence based decision making and an improvement culture. I've used it all of my working life.

Consider options - decide on best course of action - implement - review outcomes - react and adjust  etc - it's not rocket science.

Where we may well disagree is on the definition of 'evidence'. In my world evidence is based on facts not on opinions. (Although the opinions of people I respect will play a part of my decision making process - it would be foolish to totally ignore them ).

The only way we can gather evidence of what Leave really means is to start the implementation process and actually leave. We then can see properly the facts of the Leave reality over a reasonable period of time (not weeks or months but a reasonable number of years).   This allows proper time for the changes in Government policies etc  that will no doubt materialise to be properly assessed.

After a number of years , the Government / people can reassess based on the proper facts of Remain and the Leave reality.

That is democracy in action and what the people voted for in 2016.
By:
Johnny The Guesser
When: 30 Oct 19 14:12
..oh ...and I'm glad I can put a smile on your face Happy
By:
tobermory
When: 30 Oct 19 14:39
'undefined state'

How exactly were the leavers supposed to present a fully worked out deal in 2016 ?

Was the EU prepared to provide negotiators for several months to work out a deal for the hypothetical scenario in which Britain voted to leave ?

Who would the EU have negotiated with exactly ?

People voted to leave precisely without knowing exactly how it would work out in terms of deals etc. They just felt we would be better off out come what may.
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