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Angoose
06 Oct 19 14:43
Joined:
Date Joined: 18 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 24,312 | Blogger: Angoose's blog
Meet the Leave voters who have radically changed their views on Brexit

In 2016, 17.4 million people voted for the UK to leave the European Union.

But there are thousands who have changed their minds and would vote differently in a second poll, according to the founder of a group uniting Leave voters who would now vote Remain.

Andy, who did not want to give his surname, created RemainerNow in December 2017 after noticing people talking about how they had regretted their Brexit vote.

The 34-year-old, who himself voted Remain, claims he has now spoken with thousands of people who either voted Leave and changed their mind, or who did not vote at all and now wish they had.

He begun sharing their stories on Twitter under the handle RemainerNow and the words: “It’s okay to change your mind.”

There are now thousands of people who engage with the group, which can be found on social media channels, via their podcast, and out at Brexit marches.

Andy, from south Buckinghamshire, believes from those he has spoken to that a second referendum would trigger a very different result.

“There was this gap in the debate and some powerful stories out there that needed to be brought together and shared where people can find them,” he told the Standard.

He and the person he runs the accounts with, Victoria, have heard from people dotted all over the UK, from retirees to those who were too young to vote in 2016.

Andy says a careful vetting process is carried out before people become RemainerNow campaigners to make sure they are not a Remain voter trying to “shift the narrative”.

He said the debate takes on a different tone when members of RemainerNow engage with Brexiteers, as opposed to those who have always backed Remain.

“They get a very different reaction in a Facebook exchange or on the streets,” he said.

“Their response is: 'Oh you're not just telling me I was an idiot. You're saying that you voted this way and you're saying to me what changed your mind'”.

Andy said there are three common threads RemainerNow members follow.

“The first is they saw money for the NHS, they weren't that engaged with politics and thought: ‘that sounds great I want that.’ Then when they saw that that's not happening, that's what change their mind,” he said.

“Then there’s the people who did it as a protest, they didn't like the government at the time, and they just did it because they thought ‘I'm going to give them a kick, often thinking that Leave wasn't going to win.’

“The third is people who listened to claims that we would keep our role in the single market, keep our relationship on an economic side but would just have a bit more political freedom, the Norway-type voters in this respect."

RemainerNow will meet with cross-country and cross-party MEPs in Brussels on October 17 to represent this “gap in the debate”.

Here are some of those people on why they changed their views:

Emma-Jane Manley, 39, from Market Harborough, voted Leave
"I wasn't a firm Leaver or a firm Remainer, I was just thinking what would improve our lives. I was a teacher working full time and a parent of two children, one of whom is disabled. Life was really busy and also really hard.

"I was in a constant battle to get services for her, to get support for her and all of this was in the background and I didn’t really pay much attention to politics.

"There was a Boris bus and people said they didn't believe the number on it but that sort of general impression that we would have more money four our services, for our NHS, for our people at home, struck a chord with me and that's the way I voted.

"I changed my mind within the first 12 months.

"At the time they were saying: ‘Oh it's going to be the easiest deal in history, it's going to be no problem at all, and then we just started to see it unravel. We saw the Brexit ministers resign, they just kept toppling and it just became really clear that there was no such amazing deal.

"That's when I started to read more, pay attention more and listen more and I just realised what a massive mistake it was and we were giving up so much.

"I had no awareness of the issue this presented to peace in Northern Ireland. I didn’t know that my vote jeopardised that and when I learnt about it - I was in shock. I had voted for better NHS and more funding into services for the UK. I would never have voted leave if I had understood that it would jeopardise the agreement that I had long taken for granted.

"Earlier this year Change UK launched and I applied to be one of their MEP candidates and I was selected. I then stood for them for the East Midlands because I felt so strongly about it."

Callum Tennant, 20, London, campaigned for Vote Leave
"I was too young (to vote), so I campaigned for Leave. I really distanced myself from quite a lot of the elements of the campaign: the intense immigration conversation and things like that, but my reasons back then was that I did get behind the whole ‘take back control’ thing.

"I thought we could make our own laws that are specifically tailored to the UK, that would be more beneficial to the UK. I thought we could make trade deals that were beneficial and tailored to UK needs.

"I just thought it was the more patriotic option.

"I think in the referendum time you kind of did just get sucked into a world full of your own algorithms and news.

"When you came down on one side, every time you logged on to your Facebook you would see things and go: ‘Oh yea, I agree with that’ and you slowly become more eurosceptic or the other way round.

"All my friends were pro-Remain. It was very, very challenging but it was almost like the more isolated I was the more I dug in.

"A year after the result, I started getting nagging doubts. I removed myself from politics altogether, which wasn't easy considering I was studying politics at uni. I just felt so disillusioned. I was a member of the Labour party and the Labour party had gone under (Jeremy) Corbyn who was a person I had campaigned against.

"I was thinking: ‘Oh I'm not sure I agree with this anymore’. I became really depressed when it came to politics.

"I was just really not into it, which is so rare for me, because the rest of my life it was what I lived and breathed."

Simranjeet Riyat, 23, east London, voted Leave
"Barking and Dagenham, where I live, is often cited as one of the most deprived areas inside the UK. Growing up, Westminster, despite being 40 mins from us, felt very distant. As things kept getting worse, especially after the financial crisis, I could see that none of us were being heard none of us were being listened to and our problems were being exasperated.

"I studied hard and went to a top tier university where we had a debate just two or three weeks before the referendum between (former UKIP MP) Douglas Carswell and (Tory MP) Anna Soubry.

"Mr Carswell ended up making some really coherent, strong points on a potential future vision for Britain after leaving the EU: increasing animal welfare standards, free trade agreements, that immigration wouldn’t be too hampered by what might happen.

"The potential for Barking and Dagenham to get more money, for a government that was dedicated to building its infrastructure, that was dedicated to investing more into people instead of siphoning away money to a foreign organisation. It seemed like a great opportunity at the time.

"Admittedly I did not do as much research into this whole thing as I could have. I was spending all my time studying and thinking: ‘this seems fine’. I never considered things such as the single market, the customs union, or the impact it would have on the Irish border.

"After the result, I was quite happy initially. I went to continental Europe for the first time in 10 years in August 2017. For me, at least in my emotional reaction, was: ‘oh well maybe the EU wasn't so bad after all’ but we've already left so, it's happening.'

"I was still at university in July 2018 when the Checkers agreement was released and it was absolutely horrid. It was nothing that was promised in the referendum and that's when I really started paying attention to this whole thing. We had to realise as well that Vote Leave had cheated.

"Conducive to our democratic tradition if one side cheats then they do not have a legitimate claim to enact their policies, especially considering that they obfuscated a very complicated question."

James Mellor, 41, Hyfax, West Yorkshire, voted Leave
"My dad was an ex-Conservative councillor so it was sort of inbuilt in terms of my political upbringing. I got involved in helping a business group in Yorkshire campaign to vote leave. My name is on a letter from those two to three hundred businesses, sent to The Telegraph. To my shame, it's there.

"For me it was that I didn't want further political integration and that's the way things seemed to be going. I was quite happy with the status quo.

"Lots of people, politicians, assured me that even if we were to leave we would still stay in the single market and customs union and if that were to become an issue there would've been a separate vote on that. I foolishly believed that.

"When I was voting Leave, I thought that Remain would win because that's where all the polls were going at the time. It was almost like a protest vote.

"Quite soon after the result, I changed my mind. I feel stupid because my wife is German and I hadn't fully or at all realised the emotional impact on my wife and then my family situation going forward, I just hadn't really looked at those ramifications.

"As soon as it went that way (Leave), all those promises and untruths just started cracking apart and these people just disappeared and scuttled off.

"It's just been twisted to such a horrible extent that as soon as anyone says ‘17.4 million’, I'm screaming at the TV or newspaper or Twitter saying: “No, that figure is way wrong now!”

Carol, 63, Brighton, voted Leave
"I looked at the polls at the time and they were predicting a safe Remain win. I had a lot of personal issues in the six months leading up to the vote so I hadn't done any research on Brexit at all I'm ashamed to say.

"Where I was working at the time, we had flyers about that the transatlantic trade investment partnership and we were warned that this could cause problems for workers rights, for the NHS, for the environment. It all sounds a bit familiar now but back then, it was obviously before Donald Trump was elected, Trump was still a standing joke, and I thought stupidly, oh I'll give the EU a bloody nudge because, you know, I'm quite scared of the partnership agreement thing.

"So that's it. At the very last moment in the polling booth I decided to vote leave and literally from the next day - after seeing Nigel Farage gloating on television - I felt sick to my stomach. I know a couple of other people at work had done the same thing and they felt very similar to me.

"Three days later, I thought - I've got to do something. So I wrote to my local MP, Caroline Lucas, explaining what I did, why I voted Leave, and why I regretted it and could we have a second referendum.

"I wasn't political pre-2016 and now I’ve found myself doing a speech in Parliament Square in front of thousands of people. How did this happen?

"There are millions of people who have changed their minds, not all of them are vocal, my husband is one but he would never go on a march. There are people who voted Leave and regret it but they're not the kind of people to go and say that loudly because quite a few of them live in Brexit households."

Andrew, 61, Acton, voted Leave
"My main reason was that I felt that, because the UK was not a member of the Euro, and the interest of the UK and the EU could diverge from time to time, I thought there might have to be a drive to greater political integration in order to make the Euro work.

"For that reason I thought the UK might benefit from slightly looser relationship with the EU.

"I did worry that, if there was a decision in the referendum to leave, then that might provoke an increase in nationalism or xenophobia.

"I thought about that and spoke to people and, in the end, I felt that actually a rise in nationalism was at that time a problem across Europe, not just in the UK. If we did leave the EU then it might in some way take the pressure off.

"But fairly soon after the referendum I started to notice things I hadn't seen before in London. I especially remember an occasion seeing a drunk, obviously retired soldier, in the street outside a cafe and he was yelling at obviously European visitors who were sitting having coffee saying things like: 'We voted for Brexit, you lot are going home'.

"That worried me.

"Then at the Conservative party conference that autumn, Mrs May seemed to me to be interpreting the referendum result in a way which was certainly not consistent with the way I had voted.

"She used that phrase: “citizens of nowhere”.

"There was a proposal by the Conservatives at that time that there should be a register of foreign workers. I found that very chilling, watching her.

"And then she produced her red lines which included an end to freedom of movement and she was claiming that all this was backed up by the referendum result and this is completely inconsistent with the way I'd voted.

"So finally I made my decision and I started telling people that I had changed my mind at the end of 2017.

"I regret the way I voted, I think it turned out to be a disaster. It’s nothing like what was promised by Vote Leave, who were saying: ‘We're going to hold all the cards, it's going to be very easy to get a great deal, no responsible government could trigger Article 50 without a plan”.

"If you think now, three years later, it's completely different and now we've got a government seriously talking about a no-deal Brexit."
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Report Angoose October 6, 2019 2:45 PM BST
So there you have it, real people, real points of view.

"If a democracy cannot change its mind, it ceases to be a democracy."
David Davis, former Brexit Secretary, 19 Nov 2012
Report Dr Crippen October 6, 2019 2:56 PM BST
199.
Report Angoose October 6, 2019 2:58 PM BST
Getting close to the double century Grin
Report themover October 6, 2019 3:08 PM BST
Yes it is ok for people to change their mind. What isn't ok is for a Parliament to disrespect the will of a vote whether they liked the outcome or not.
Report Angoose October 6, 2019 3:26 PM BST
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7212/CBP-7212.pdf

5. Types of referendum
This Bill requires a referendum to be held on the question of the UK’s
continued membership of the European Union (EU) before the end of
2017. It does not contain any requirement for the UK Government to
implement the results of the referendum, nor set a time limit by which a
vote to leave the EU should be implemented. Instead, this is a type of
referendum known as pre-legislative or consultative, which enables the
electorate to voice an opinion which then influences the Government in
its policy decisions.
The referendums held in Scotland, Wales and
Northern Ireland in 1997 and 1998 are examples of this type, where
opinion was tested before legislation was introduced. The UK does not
have constitutional provisions which would require the results of a
referendum to be implemented, unlike, for example, the Republic of
Ireland, where the circumstances in which a binding referendum should
be held are set out in its constitution.
Report Angoose October 6, 2019 3:29 PM BST
Is it ok to disregard the clear definition of scope of the referendum?
Report themover October 6, 2019 3:40 PM BST
Parliament voted to invoke Article 50.

Withdrawal from the European Union is the legal and political process whereby an EU member state ceases to be a member of the Union. Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) states that "Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements".
Report Angoose October 6, 2019 3:51 PM BST
It did indeed, whilst all major parties also vowed to leave the EU in an orderly basis within their 2017 General Election manifestoes.
But time has moved on, and the wise words of David Davis in 2012 are no less wise for that passage of time.

The process of leaving the EU has clearly proven to be much more difficult than it was imagined to be.

In such circumstances, allowing the electorate an opportunity to reconfirm the decision that they made in 2016 appears perfectly reasonable and democratic to me.
Report lfc1971 October 6, 2019 3:54 PM BST
Scotland can leave the U.K. and stay in the EU anytime they like

But they must not be allowed to stop England leaving the EU

The SNP types probably shouldn’t be allowed a vote at all
Report lfc1971 October 6, 2019 3:58 PM BST
The sheer gall of the snp , well I suppose they can only be what they are , hypocrites
Report Angoose October 6, 2019 4:02 PM BST
Have you read the views of your fellow Englanders?
None of them reference the SNP as being instrumental in their change of heart.
Report lfc1971 October 6, 2019 4:04 PM BST
And why should I give two hoots about that ?
Report InsiderTrader October 6, 2019 4:05 PM BST
Angoose
06 Oct 19 14:43
Joined: 18 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 8,124 | Blogger: Angoose's blog
Meet the Leave voters who have radically changed their views on Brexit

In 2016, 17.4 million people voted for the UK to leave the European Union.

But there are thousands who have changed their minds and would vote differently in a second poll, according to the founder of a group uniting Leave voters who would now vote Remain.

Andy, who did not want to give his surname, created RemainerNow in December 2017 after noticing people talking about how they had regretted their Brexit vote.

The 34-year-old, who himself voted Remain, claims he has now spoken with thousands of people who either voted Leave and changed their mind, or who did not vote at all and now wish they had.

He begun sharing their stories on Twitter under the handle RemainerNow and the words: “It’s okay to change your mind.”

There are now thousands of people who engage with the group, which can be found on social media channels, via their podcast, and out at Brexit marches.

Andy, from south Buckinghamshire, believes from those he has spoken to that a second referendum would trigger a very different result.

“There was this gap in the debate and some powerful stories out there that needed to be brought together and shared where people can find them,” he told the Standard.

He and the person he runs the accounts with, Victoria, have heard from people dotted all over the UK, from retirees to those who were too young to vote in 2016.

Andy says a careful vetting process is carried out before people become RemainerNow campaigners to make sure they are not a Remain voter trying to “shift the narrative”.

He said the debate takes on a different tone when members of RemainerNow engage with Brexiteers, as opposed to those who have always backed Remain.

“They get a very different reaction in a Facebook exchange or on the streets,” he said.
Report lfc1971 October 6, 2019 4:09 PM BST
remainers are quite capable of rigging any new referendum

They would ‘ miscount’ the votes

That is almost certain given what we now know about
Remainers
Report lfc1971 October 6, 2019 4:12 PM BST
We must take Britain out under the only democratic referendum we can be sure off
And make sure remainers never get the chance to vote again

They don’t deserve to I’m afraid , maybe in 100 years or 1000
Report drive for show putt for dough October 6, 2019 4:13 PM BST
The 34-year-old, who himself voted Remain, claims he has now spoken with thousands of people who either voted Leave and changed their mind, or who did not vote at all and now wish they had.

need more than thousands to change their mind to affect the result

25 days to go
Report lfc1971 October 6, 2019 4:14 PM BST
If someone says they are a remainer

They simply can’t be trusted , I’m sorry that’s how it is
Report Angoose October 6, 2019 4:17 PM BST
The opinion polls having been telling us for some time that more than thousands have changed their minds.
Report InsiderTrader October 6, 2019 4:34 PM BST
Nonsense.
Report Angoose October 6, 2019 4:40 PM BST
Is that an opinion or a factually based response?

http://britainelects.com/polling/europe/
Report lfc1971 October 6, 2019 4:48 PM BST
The only way the remainers woukd win another referendum is if they fix the result

And I wouldn’t rule it out that they would do that
Report lfc1971 October 6, 2019 4:50 PM BST
Do you know I’ve yet to meet a nice remainer ?
Report treetop October 6, 2019 8:27 PM BST
Spoken to plenty that voted to stay but have been disgusted with Remainers failing to abide by democracy and gone the other way. I suspect there would be a small increase to Leave after all the shenanigans.
Report Angoose October 6, 2019 8:32 PM BST
There is a very easy way to find out if your opinion is more accurate than the scientifically produced opinion pools.
Hold a referendum.
Report treetop October 6, 2019 8:35 PM BST
I would favour that now,too many people fail to recall that the last referendum was only close because the government of the day actively and massively campaigned for Remain. A more balanced debate would yield an even bigger majority to Leave in my opinion.
Report lfc1971 October 6, 2019 8:35 PM BST
Why ? We’re not interested
Report Angoose October 6, 2019 8:36 PM BST
It is where we are headed.
Report lfc1971 October 6, 2019 8:37 PM BST
It’s not something that is if any concern

Plus it would be **** against leave because of all the shenigans
Not possible to take the risk obviously
Report lfc1971 October 6, 2019 8:41 PM BST
A new result if it was remain could never be believed , not now
Report lfc1971 October 6, 2019 8:44 PM BST
I am quite convinced that there is not a single remainer who would not be against
miscounting the referendum result
If it meant remain
Report lfc1971 October 6, 2019 8:46 PM BST
* not a single remainer who would be against miscounting the ref result
If it meant remain
Report Lochangel October 7, 2019 12:22 AM BST
Treetop has it spot on.all the major parties campaigned for remain,
yet leave still won.A load of **** still being spouted about how young
people are for remain,the majority of under 30's i know are for brexit.
all working class.plumbers,scaffolders,brickies etc,not ****g
students.
Report thegiggilo October 7, 2019 12:46 AM BST
Lol 29 posts in 16 years,you sound like treetop related by anychance yet another made up anecdotalstory you guys sure do churn them out if you were right leave vote would be 90% strange every single poll shows remain vote in lead and increasing..facts not made up stories..
Report tobermory October 7, 2019 1:13 AM BST

Oct 6, 2019 -- 4:17PM, Angoose wrote:


The opinion polls having been telling us for some time that more than thousands have changed their minds.


The 2016 opinion polls told us Remain would win.

Report tobermory October 7, 2019 1:15 AM BST

Oct 6, 2019 -- 8:32PM, Angoose wrote:


There is a very easy way to find out if your opinion is more accurate than the scientifically produced opinion pools.Hold a referendum.


Yep we did that already . The scientifically produced opinion poll said there was a majority for remain, the referendum said there was a majority for leave.

Report tobermory October 7, 2019 1:16 AM BST
These people sound like Neasden residents made up for a Private Eye spoof article.
Report politicspunter October 7, 2019 9:05 AM BST

Oct 7, 2019 -- 1:13AM, tobermory wrote:


Oct  6, 2019 --  4:17PM, Angoose wrote:The opinion polls having been telling us for some time that more than thousands have changed their minds.The 2016 opinion polls told us Remain would win.


No they didn't.

Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- October 7, 2019 10:37 AM BST
seems fairly common to get something like 8% of leavers and 8% of remainers have
changed mind

not sure about the folk who couldnt be bothered to vote last time
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- October 7, 2019 10:41 AM BST
then there are 750,000 new voters each year who turn 18, so thats
about 2.6 million who didnt get a vote last time

theres been about 1.75 million folk died since first ref, but not all
of em had a vote last time as figure is just total deaths in uk
Report treetop October 7, 2019 10:53 AM BST
gigs,just for your peace of mind,I do not have any other accounts on here,never have done and don't expect too. Don't trust polling accuracy fully,used to be a FRSS in my youth and trust my judgement before owt else,gd luck with your bet,based on anecdotal evidence or an opinion poll ?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- October 7, 2019 10:54 AM BST
f'in rubbish sunland supporter ?
Report treetop October 7, 2019 10:58 AM BST
Yet another incisive and perceptive contribution from our neighbourly cousin ?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- October 7, 2019 11:04 AM BST
Acronym    Definition
FRSS    Forward Resuscitative Surgery System
FRSS    Fast Response Survey System
FRSS    Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society (UK)
FRSS    Firm Retail Security Services (UK)
FRSS    Front Shield Subsystem (Cassini mission; US NASA)
FRSS    Frame Relay Switching System
FRSS    Frontline Resuscitative Surgical Suite
FRSS    Financial Revenue Strategy Symposium (Fayetteville, NC
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- October 7, 2019 11:07 AM BST
FRSS  Fisheries resources survey system
Report Pete Watermelon October 7, 2019 11:44 AM BST
You really are one sad individual Angoose.
Report InsiderTrader October 7, 2019 11:56 AM BST
Angoose
06 Oct 19 20:32
Joined: 18 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 8,144 | Blogger: Angoose's blog
There is a very easy way to find out if your opinion is more accurate than the scientifically produced opinion pools.
Hold a referendum.
Rate reply:
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treetop

treetop
06 Oct 19 20:35
Joined: 01 Jun 01
| Topic/replies: 16,735 | Blogger: treetop's blog
I would favour that now,too many people fail to recall that the last referendum was only close because the government of the day actively and massively campaigned for Remain. A more balanced debate would yield an even bigger majority to Leave in my opinion.


^

What would the question be in this new referendum?

Who would be allowed to vote in it?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- October 7, 2019 12:16 PM BST
What would the question be in this new referendum?.....this deal (whatever it is) or remain
if this deal is limited no deal then it would be specified, i would hope.

Who would be allowed to vote in it?...over 18yo uk citizens
Report InsiderTrader October 7, 2019 12:19 PM BST
Why would you include remain again?

Already decided that.

The issue seems to be now be how we leave...

1. Clean break and then do FTDs around the globe including EU

OR

2. A negotiated deal (that probably would be closer to the EU at least for sometime).
Report politicspunter October 7, 2019 12:23 PM BST

Oct 7, 2019 -- 12:16PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:


What would the question be in this new referendum?.....this deal (whatever it is) or remainif this deal is limited no deal then it would be specified, i would hope.Who would be allowed to vote in it?...over 18yo uk citizens


Why not 16 and 17 year olds? Fabulous turnout in Scottish independence referendum which included these folks.

Report InsiderTrader October 7, 2019 12:28 PM BST
Why not the 3,000,000+ non-UK EU citizens while you are at?
Report lfc1971 October 7, 2019 12:29 PM BST
No life experience at that age ,
Indeed anyone who is still at school ( university )
should not be allowed to vote
Report lfc1971 October 7, 2019 12:30 PM BST
Once they leave the classroom and have to venture into the real world
Then they can vote
Report politicspunter October 7, 2019 12:32 PM BST

Oct 7, 2019 -- 12:28PM, InsiderTrader wrote:


Why not the 3,000,000+ non-UK EU citizens while you are at?


I assume all Commonwealth and Irish are ok as before?

Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- October 7, 2019 1:13 PM BST
when facts of the deal are known they should be put forward v remain

not unicorns on sunlit uplands v remain


we can have a proper debate on the truth of the deal, v remain which has
never happened.

if you want no deal v remain, thats a new vote too, so bring it on.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- October 7, 2019 1:14 PM BST
the terms for voting should be same as second eu referendum held in 2016
Report lfc1971 October 7, 2019 1:20 PM BST
^  disagree with that
Report Angoose October 7, 2019 1:21 PM BST
There's a surprise
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- October 7, 2019 1:22 PM BST
not surprised , i suppose you want anybody that voted remain to be excluded from eu ref 3
Report lfc1971 October 7, 2019 1:23 PM BST
And a leavers opinion is of course more important than a remainers opinion

morally
Report lfc1971 October 7, 2019 1:24 PM BST
I’m just saying a leavers opinion should of course hold more weight than a remainers
Report lfc1971 October 7, 2019 1:25 PM BST
What I am saying is it was leavers who won the vote

So it is leavers who should be asked , not remainers obviously
Report lfc1971 October 7, 2019 1:26 PM BST
You know it is leavers who have something to lose , not remainers

Remainers are selfish like that Sad
Report InsiderTrader October 7, 2019 2:02 PM BST
----you-have-to-laugh---
07 Oct 19 13:13
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 2,887 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
when facts of the deal are known they should be put forward v remain

not unicorns on sunlit uplands v remain


we can have a proper debate on the truth of the deal, v remain which has
never happened.

if you want no deal v remain, thats a new vote too, so bring it on.


^

There is no 'truth of the deal' yet.

Currently we are talking to the EU about how we leave. Either with an agreement or with a clean break. That is where we are at.

How we trade with them in future has not been worked out.

What would be on the ballot for that? Remain in the CU/SM, join A CU, leave and go for a FTD?

You cannot have a referendum that does not have take back control of our laws, borders, money and trade policy on the ballot.
Report treetop October 7, 2019 2:45 PM BST
One of them. Your cut and paste skills are admirable.
Report treetop October 7, 2019 2:50 PM BST
That was for donny by the way from an earlier table he posted.

On subsequent posts the Remainers wrote the script last time, with this pro Brexit government it would be amusing to hear the squealing if the script was presented to suit the Leave campaign. No moral reason why Remain should be on the referendum repeat but we do have to put it to bed once and for all.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- October 7, 2019 3:06 PM BST
There is no 'truth of the deal' yet.



thats why i prefixed it with when..., lol

you are funny at times
Report tobermory October 8, 2019 7:51 PM BST
politicspunter,

The 2016 polls didn't say Remain would win ?

Of the last 13 polls in the final week, 8 had a remain lead, one of those with a 10pt lead and another with 7pts. There were four that had Leave leading and none by more than 2pts.
Report politicspunter October 8, 2019 7:57 PM BST
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

tobermory, here is the link to them. I considered it a toss up.
Report lfc1971 October 8, 2019 8:02 PM BST
Most polls thought remain would win
Report politicspunter October 8, 2019 8:04 PM BST
There were 25 polls released from 9th June until voting day on 23rd June. 12 had remain ahead, 12 had leave ahead, 1 was a tie. That's as close to toss up stuff/ margin of error as it comes.
Report politicspunter October 8, 2019 8:05 PM BST
Having said that, the bookies/exchanges had remain as clear favourite.
Report lfc1971 October 8, 2019 8:10 PM BST
From 16th of June until polling day 10 our of 13 polls thought remain would win
Report lfc1971 October 8, 2019 8:12 PM BST
There were more bets placed on leave to win
But more money placed on remain to win
Seems the experts were wrong again
Report lfc1971 October 8, 2019 8:14 PM BST
You have to careful at the information politics pauper gives
He has a selective memory and a selective way of looking at the facts
Report lfc1971 October 8, 2019 8:18 PM BST
Some of those final polls had remain at 10, 8, 7 and 6 % lead

Leave were either 2 or 1%
Report lfc1971 October 8, 2019 8:21 PM BST
So all the final polls from June 16 th to polling day June 23 underestimated the leave vote
Report Angoose October 8, 2019 8:24 PM BST
Just like they are currently underestimating the Labour vote Grin
Report politicspunter October 8, 2019 8:26 PM BST

Oct 8, 2019 -- 8:24PM, Angoose wrote:


Just like they are currently underestimating the Labour vote


Some of the 2017 general election pollsters massively underestimated the Labour vote as their methodology was flawed.

Report lfc1971 October 8, 2019 8:26 PM BST
It’s very possible
It will of course depend on what happens Oct 31
Report lfc1971 October 8, 2019 8:27 PM BST
The labour leave voters are crucial , what they decide to do
Report tobermory October 8, 2019 8:43 PM BST
"Some of the 2017 general election pollsters massively underestimated the Labour vote as their methodology was flawed."

Yes, most of them did actually.

I posted previously that for Brexit/Trump '16/ UK GE 2017 the pollsters got it wrong for the same reasons.

A key question they would ask would be 'did you vote last time?' or 'when did you last vote?

People saying they would be supporting Brexit or Trump were telling posters they had not voted in 10 years or more. The pollsters then adjusted the actual Remain/Leave or Trump/Hilary numbers they got by basically discounting these 'non voters' that were supporting Brexit/Trump, on the assumption they would not turn out on the day. It did not occur to them that maybe these people that had not voted previously now had something/someone totally different that were enthused about.

With Labour in 2017 the pollsters noted how they got 2015 wrong because their polls had overstated Labour support. They conculded that people that said they would vote Labour were disproportionately less likely to turn up. So they adjusted 2017 polls on the basis that the same would happen. Again, not thinking Labour types might be more enthused by Corbyn than Millbland.
Report politicspunter October 8, 2019 8:57 PM BST

Oct 8, 2019 -- 8:43PM, tobermory wrote:


"Some of the 2017 general election pollsters massively underestimated the Labour vote as their methodology was flawed."Yes, most of them did actually.I posted previously that for Brexit/Trump '16/ UK GE 2017 the pollsters got it wrong for the same reasons.A key question they would ask would be 'did you vote last time?' or 'when did you last vote?People saying they would be supporting Brexit or Trump were telling posters they had not voted in 10 years or more. The pollsters then adjusted the actual Remain/Leave or Trump/Hilary numbers they got by basically discounting these 'non voters' that were supporting Brexit/Trump, on the assumption they would not turn out on the day. It did not occur to them that maybe these people that had not voted previously now had something/someone totally different that were enthused about.With Labour in 2017 the pollsters noted how they got 2015 wrong because their polls had overstated Labour support. They conculded that people that said they would vote Labour were disproportionately less likely to turn up. So they adjusted 2017 polls on the basis that the same would happen. Again, not thinking Labour types might be more enthused by Corbyn than Millbland.


Spot on. Some companies also gave far too much weighting to older voters 65+ (vote regularly, vote tory) and much less to young voters 18-34 (don't vote regularly, don't vote tory) despite the main focus of Corbyns campaign being based around tuition fees and one of the biggest flaws in Mays campaign being her social care plan.

Report lfc1971 October 8, 2019 9:03 PM BST
Labour just got more votes in seats they would have won , didn’t translate into more MPs
That’s a problem if they ever want to win an election
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