UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019? - Rules

Theresa May triggered this process on 29 March, 2017, meaning the UK is scheduled to leave at 11pm UK time on Friday, 29 March 2019.

Meaning that any time after would constitute a delayed Brexit.

Fair point. I reckon that it must be something to do with officially notifying on that date other EU members before their midnight hour rather than ours.

But if anyone is concerned that a train may be late etc, you could always consider Brexit date which gives you the whole of March :)

Indeed I think the Brexit date odds are correct, but until now the odds for UK to leave by 29/03/2019 - before 23:59:59 CET have closely matched Brexit date market. I would strongly advice against betting "Yes: UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019" since you would be almost guaranteed to lose.
You lose if there is an extension, but you also lose if the Brexit officially takes place as scheduled (11pm GMT that day)

UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019? - Rules
Event Start Time
29 March 2019, 00:00
Win Only Market
Will the United Kingdom officially leave the European Union before the 29/03/2019 - 23:59:59 CET?

For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK. Examples of when this might occur include, but are not limited, to: the date specified in a withdrawal agreement between the UK and the EU; the end of the two year negotiating period (29/03/2019) as set out by Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (or any extension to this time period); or the date of the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act. If more than one of these events were to occur, this market will be settled on the first of these events to occur. In the case of the two year time period in Article 50 being extended, via a unanimous vote by all EU Member States, we will settle this market on the extended date. This market will settle when the UK leaves the EU even if parts of the UK (e.g. Scotland, Northern Ireland) leave the UK or receive special status within the EU.

In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome

politicspunter can you give one remotely realistic scenario where this market would be settled as "yes" ?
I have just been in touch with Betfair CS and they have confirmed that Brexit as scheduled (11pm on the day) would settle as "no".

Cannot imagine that Betfair have set up a "trap bet" mkt. but it is for them to clarify.

I must admit that the wording of the rules is at best unclear.

I don't think it was set up as a trap, rather by mistake/human error. Yet the rule is very clear. Official brexit 11pm GMT on the day settles a "no".

Maybe the settlement time should be delayed by two seconds, against the pedant claims.

They can't do it because loads of bets have been made already. It's not a pedant claim because 11pm GMT is exactly when the Brexit will officially take place unless there is an extension.

Don't want the "soft tissue damage" claimants piling in.

If Betfair cannot finesse the time by two seconds, to reflect how everybody made their bets, the mkt will have to be voided.

What Betfair normally do in these circumstances is deal with claims on a "case-by-case" basis. In other words, you don't ask, you won't get.
But in this case, everybody would have their bet settled against their expectation, and it is a million pound mkt already.

Rules are unambiguous. They can't be changed retroactively with regards to bets already made, and bets can't be voided in such case.

I just called them also, they dont know what they doing !, supervisor is looking into it and going to call me back in 10 minutes, well spotted Kosher

I guess so. Time for TSE Global to earn their fee for once and bring this to the attention of Mkt Ops .

Hope its void I need 3.3 to get level :)

But surely 23:59:59 is the latest possible time Betfair can specify for settlement to honour the mkt: "UK to leave on 29/3/2019."?
And furthermore:
In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time.

Hopefully, Betfair will entertain no chisellers.

:)) but the start time is after the finish time

Yes but what's the ambiguity with the rule?
Will the United Kingdom officially leave the European Union before the 29/03/2019 - 23:59:59 CET?

Mate, I have bet "yes" heavily myself. Now realized rule and dumping all I can, and betting "Brexit Date" instead

I thought about that but I think Betfair will honor my yes (unfortunately given the market for me).
Surely the ambiguity is the start time being 00.00 which is still 29th ?

I don't know what the start date means.
For example USA presidential election - next president market has start date 03 November 2020, 13:00

What starts then? You can bet on it already...

With the USA president market, that is the time when "ante post" bets finish and betting becomes "live", ie that is the day folks vote.

I have dumped after receiving this However I now think 11pm uk was a yes, wasnt it....As per our previous conversion we had about the politics market on the uk leaving the EU. The correct time frame is 30th march on Midnight meaning that since you placed your bets on the 'Yes' option, your bets would only win if the UK leaves the EU on the 30th March 2019 at Midnight. Apologies for the confusion we had on our telephone conversation but the exact date and time is the 30th March Midnight

Is it when it goes to "live betting"
Then start date 29 March 2019, 02:00, makes sense

ffs what do i do now

why 02.00

For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK.

Seems pretty clear. Having backed "Yes" myself, I see no grounds for anyone else twisting a payout from the small-print. It's a big mkt, and any ex-gratia payments that Betfair make would potentially spur wide claims.

23:59:59 is simply the time when the mkt autosuspends and no more bets can be placed.
It doesn't mean the time when the mkt is settled.
Indeed, the rules are clear: For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK.

ok so as they say 00.00 on the 30th is a yes ?

Unitedbiscuits it is a major blunder by Betfair. Yet there is absolutely no way they could settle against unambiguous rules, or void bets.

No, yajyaj, 23:59:00 is the 29th
00:00 is the 30th
The first would be a yes, the second would be a no; but it won't be decided on that second. As the OP says, 23:00 is the logical announcement time, 24:00 makes no sense at all.

Biscuit no, read my reply from them, march 30th at 00.00 is uk 11pm 29th march

Is it midnight CET?

Or is it GMT?

Event Start Time
29 March 2019, 00:00
Win Only Market
Will the United Kingdom officially leave the European Union before the 29/03/2019 - 23:59:59 CET?

Re your conversation with betfair, I assume they mean midnight CET.

I can smell your desperation, Kosher malibu, but I believe Betfair have it covered:

1) For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK.
2)In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on
  all the information available to it at the relevant time

I can see the hope you're clinging to:
Will the United Kingdom officially leave the European Union before the 29/03/2019 - 23:59:59 CET?
But since the above falls under the Mkt labelled: UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019? I fear you may have an uphill task.

sos, my assumption is cet but I will need to double check I guess

In fact, the odds correlate with the adjacent mkt for Brexit Jan/March 4.8 vs 4.9 for the 29/3/19 mkt..
So, no "trap bet", no conspiracy, no leg for squealers to stand on.

:), I'll be squealing if I cant get back on ffs

I'm not desperate, biscuit. I'm betting on Brexit Jan19-Mar19 as then Brexit 11 pm GMT on 23 March 2019 will certainly be settled in my favour. I think it would be rather foolish to bet on "UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019" when 11pm Brexit will, according to the rules, be settled as No.

Fair enough Kosher Malibu and thank you for bringing it to the attention of the forum. I am in those mkts too; they have been closely aligned for weeks and months; tonight they diverged by half a point for a few hours so it could have been sinister but they are now in sync again.
I wouldn’t dream of making a claim against the settlement of a mkt based on a loophole in the small-print but will watch this with interest; we need to make sure everyone gets treated the same.

If you have a chance to shift from yes/no market to brexit date market at the same price, I strongly recommend you do so. I'm very surprised if tomorrow this time (11 pm GMT) the odds are still in line.

Hi Kosher.

The way I read it is that 11pm GMT on the 29th clearly equates to 12am CET on the 30th.

So theoretically, if we were to leave at 22:59:59:01 GMT, the bet would be a loser.

The odds are only marginally different with leaving by 23:59:59 currently 4.8 and leaving by the end of March 4.6.

Mind the 29th is a Friday and April Fools Day (how appropriate - the bastards have done this on purpose, imo!) is a Monday, so there is the weekend to take into consideration.