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"UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019? - Rules: Will the United Kingdom officially leave the European Union before the 29/03/2019 - 23:59:59?
For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK."
The transition agreement has just been all but 99% agreed (apart from NI border) - therefore it is now 99% certain that the UK will be subject to the full rules of the Single market and Customs Union until well after 29/3/19 (until 31/12/20 in fact)..... therefore these treaties *will still apply* to the UK after 29/3/19.
Therefore it is very odd indeed that the 'Yes' market is now the favourite? - surely 'No' should be now nailed on? .... or do punters misunderstand this market?
For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK."
The transition agreement has just been all but 99% agreed (apart from NI border) - therefore it is now 99% certain that the UK will be subject to the full rules of the Single market and Customs Union until well after 29/3/19 (until 31/12/20 in fact)..... therefore these treaties *will still apply* to the UK after 29/3/19.
Therefore it is very odd indeed that the 'Yes' market is now the favourite? - surely 'No' should be now nailed on? .... or do punters misunderstand this market?
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Replies: 11
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Nowhere near 99% agreed.
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seems as if some do
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migration not agreed
Ireland not agreed fisheries not agreed basically only thing agreed is the divorce bill and that's only agreed if everything is agreed,so nothing is agreed at present never mind 99%, but the can is that far down the road no one can see it. ids said on bbc unless theres small print saying none of the above counts no brexiteers will be signing up to this |
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Ok, thanks all for your replies! ..... I was more interested in the betting market tbh - this market can only now be settled as 'No' then? - views on that per se please?
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i think if you ask on here and bet based on replies then you risk losing
just pick up phone to betfair and ask them to clarify rule in an email to you you might get 100 folk agreeing with you, but if betfair dont agree it will not matter fwiw, i think the issue we are betting on is whether we leave before or after the stated time, and transition period doesnt count as being in, but i could be wrong and betfair will know. |
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just imo exit and transition are a new treaty. The UK still leaves if this new treaty is agreed. Still leaves if negotiations collapse. Stays in if the article 50 negotiations are extended.
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Thanks both! Bets already on - have talked to BF and they assure me that it's all good! - staying in the SM and CU after 29/3/19 does mean that we have *not* left the EU on that date. The treaties still apply until 31/12/20 - that is now clear.
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In fact I clarified this with BF in a number of on the record emails many months ago.
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best have ibas on standby
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perhaps re read the rules and see that repeal of the 1972 european communities
act will cause the market to be settled as we have left that is the great repeal bill or whatever its called now and will be introduced before parliament around october this year, to allow 6 months for its passage through parliament with potential delays |
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Thanks Donny.
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