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Thought it would be good to start a thread on what we are actually here for! There are a host of different markets up now, from the usual of most seats, percentage band of vote etc. Apart from on Paddy Power there are no constituency seats betting as yet. From my own viewpoint I feel the LibDem chances may be overrated. Paddy Power opened with 34.5 seats (5/6 higher or lower). This has now been cut in line with other bookmakers to 31.5 which I still think is too high. I will try and give more detail on this in a separate thread (particularly the LibDem Scotland target seats). The huge estimate Conservative seat gain is mainly based on the UKIP vote collapsing and as each new opinion poll arrives almost daily, this UKIP voting intention will have a direct impact on the bookie prices.
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No doubt the elites will give Cleggy a job within the EU instead of finding a factory job.
Someone said something the other day about young people voting on a whim. Could it be the result of reality TV? Voting has been trivialised to such an extent that large sections of the population give no more consideration to how the country will be run than they would to the winner of X-factor or big brother. Or is that unfair on the young?
reality tv has changed reasons for the young to vote, almost certainly
not all of them but some of them
not all of them but some of them
Watch the yam yams screw this up,can see a sea of blue in the mid;ands fingers crossed they're not as stupid as i thought...
huge discrepancies in turnout also!only 53 % in glasgow east that Labour just won!
Gummer gone in Ipswich. No surprise there. To busy writing the manifesto and he took us for granted! The Tory leaflet dropped through the door 2 days ago FFS, almost as an afterthought!
fairly weird choice of clothes though im no fashion guru SKI!RED...
UKIP standing down in certain seats was a mistake. Labour voters whom voted for UKIP declined to vote for the tories and went back to Labour.
snp hold onto glasgow east by 75 votes and perth by .... 21 
Looks like the leavers have changed their minds
peterborough 61% leave went labour!!
peterborough 61% leave went labour!!
@treetop - I don't think so. The constituency was predominantly Labour for many years (1974 -> 2010, except for 1987 -> 1992). I do honestly think Gummer just took his eye off the ball. He's apparently rated well into the 500's out of 600+ MP's on the scale of replying to constituency correspondence (i.e. pretty low!) and only rents a house in the town to ensure he can claim to live locally. The country is divided in 3 ways now, Leave/Remain, Conservative/Labour, Young/Old... bit of an unholy mess.
Clown could hardly get her words out FFS!Scuttling out the back door!TARA love!
20% gain in canterbuty this is unreal,
no seat is safe...
no seat is safe...
Hope the old trout isn't going to do an Arsene Wenger on us. Should be made to go. 
The beautiful thing is there's no replacements all absolutely awful..
The beautiful thing is there's no replacements all absolutely awful..
The beautiful thing is there's no replacements all absolutely awful..
The beautiful thing is there's no replacements all absolutely awful..
huge move for boris johnson pm after election
8/1 -> 10/3 last 5 mins
8/1 -> 10/3 last 5 mins
Corbyn will have to make a coalition with someone, or else the Tories will stay in Govt. Thing is, both the Lib-dems and the SNP want to reverse Brexit, and he doesn't. So, who can Corbyn approach to form a Govt?
north east fife recount- rumour says there are 3 votes in it!
David Cameron: “I’m the stupidest Tory prime minister there’s ever been.”
Theresa May: “Hold my Pimms."
Theresa May: “Hold my Pimms."
Fife north east apparently one vote in it on the latest recount!
Jun 9, 2017 -- 4:22AM, If Dolphins Were Monkeys wrote:
David Cameron: “I’m the stupidest Tory prime minister there’s ever been.” Theresa May: “Hold my Pimms."
David Cameron would have wiped Labour off the map here.
Jings, I am 170 better off if Labour sneak back under 40%. It's 40.0 with two results to come!
the two seats left are north cornwall (labour duff) and kensington (a recount I guess).
Good calls Meadow. Did you win virtually all your bets?
Jun 9, 2017 -- 9:38AM, InsiderTrader wrote:
Good calls Meadow. Did you win virtually all your bets?
It will take me a while to count it up! I still have to sit here and watch for the next result though to see it to the end.
Managed to get an even 85 on 40 and above so happy with that, better taking 85 profit than nothing at all.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
Was a godsend - had Canterbury as a "lean Labour" 25/1, Ipswich as a LIKELY LABOUR 9/1 and Kensington - TOSSUP - (still counting) at 25/1.
Was a godsend - had Canterbury as a "lean Labour" 25/1, Ipswich as a LIKELY LABOUR 9/1 and Kensington - TOSSUP - (still counting) at 25/1.
Are they really slow at working out which results suit the bookmakers most at Kensington. A bit like watching superbowl if you backed Atlanta if your on 40.01 or more labour percentage. A slow death.
Was looking at various results thinking that I couldn't quite recall what you were on Meadow but that it looked like you were clearing up. Thank for the tip on UKIP total vote - won over a grand on that. Had some other big wins but got totally wrong footed by the first few results looking like bucking the exit polls so lost heavily on majority and on the extent of Tory majority markets. I have pulled myself back with some heavyweight backing of May for PM and Tory minority government this morning at prices a bit over 1.5 so will be an overall modest winner.
Jun 9, 2017 -- 11:47AM, Fatslogger wrote:
Was looking at various results thinking that I couldn't quite recall what you were on Meadow but that it looked like you were clearing up. Thank for the tip on UKIP total vote - won over a grand on that. Had some other big wins but got totally wrong footed by the first few results looking like bucking the exit polls so lost heavily on majority and on the extent of Tory majority markets. I have pulled myself back with some heavyweight backing of May for PM and Tory minority government this morning at prices a bit over 1.5 so will be an overall modest winner.
Thanks fats, it was a really good night. I managed to get on the UKIP one at 1.5 for a good few bob and frankly it was never in doubt. Virtually everything dropped in for me, even Zac (2.36) and Dudley North dropped in on recounts in the last dozen results or so. Missed out on under 10.5 LibDem seats but already had them under 37.5,34.5 and 18.5.
Surely May as pm shouldn't be suspended yet. She hasn't formed a government yet.
Jun 9, 2017 -- 12:56PM, bingo bongo wrote:
Surely May as pm shouldn't be suspended yet. She hasn't formed a government yet.
Think you're right but they do seem to be settling it.
Jun 9, 2017 -- 1:23PM, donny osmond wrote:
if shes been to see queen its done ...
That's not the form of words they use - it needs to be PM of a government, which she isn't yet. Of course she will be, so is a bit academic.
Not getting into the rights and wrongs of Breixt, but as it appears now, Brexit means BINO or Brexit in Name Only.
I had a conversation with a mate in the pub last week and advised him to and as I had done to lay May (I forgot about the election last night and never traded out my position) on the basis that as the potential financial impact of the hard or car crash Brexit proposed by May, that people who had voted leave would walk quietly away from it, becoming shy Remoaners as it were.
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”
Whatever happens, I hope ye get it together over there ASAP, ye are due at the table in a week or so.
I had a conversation with a mate in the pub last week and advised him to and as I had done to lay May (I forgot about the election last night and never traded out my position) on the basis that as the potential financial impact of the hard or car crash Brexit proposed by May, that people who had voted leave would walk quietly away from it, becoming shy Remoaners as it were.
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”
Whatever happens, I hope ye get it together over there ASAP, ye are due at the table in a week or so.
We can still bet on the make up of the next government so it follows that she hasn't formed one (yet).
When will she have formed one then? When will they settle that market?
Jun 9, 2017 -- 1:29PM, crete wrote:
betfair reopened the PM market !
Better get some more on then.
It might be because there is still one result to come in.
Not going to back it but it looks like a 13% interest rate is being offered. Must be a reason though so I'll leave it. Started last night with 1p in my account. £519.43 this morning, my dislike of Labour paid off
Jun 9, 2017 -- 8:20PM, ufcdan wrote:
Why BF not paying out atm on next PM after the election ?
I don't think she's officially formed a government yet.
Boris Johnson in to 25 from 34 in the last hour....here we go !
Well it drifted about up to my further back of May at 1.39. She's now back at a still astonishing 1.25. The decision's made, isn't it? What are we missing?
well done meadow, its good to see someone profiting from doing their research. you are able to forget your own politics when making your gambling decisions which helps greatly.
Thanks Jolly. Luckily there were markets on everything including all 650 constituencies. If you have maybe a dozen or so bookies vying for custom and slow to react to price changes there were always going to be money making opportunities.
Yes well done meadow , you were very consistent on here about the tory lead and being sceptical about it all the way through.
Quality posts meadow, I bow to your superior analysis mate,very enjoyable insight.
Will the Tory/Dup arrangement be classed as a coalition.Tia.
Jun 14, 2017 -- 4:53PM, vantastic54 wrote:
Will the Tory/Dup arrangement be classed as a coalition.Tia.
No
Only a coalition if seats offered at cabinet, therefore that and the PM market look absolutely done deals to me and can't see why you can get a bet on them at longer than 1.02. I'm already so heavily committed I've only just had a bit more on May though.
Well this was sub-optimal from a betting pov. Pretty strong on constituency seats as I was backing against LD favourites, of course that's weighed down by Lab hitting 40% so most Lab>Con bets went down. I had Lab in London doing well, so avoided most of the pitfalls there. Lost a fortune on Con majority, Corbyn to face an election and other seat markets.
Now, how on earth did Lab manage 40%! I've been away for the last week, but literally anybody I've spoken to who was active in the election didn't pick up these Lab voters. Shy Labour? Non-voters coming out of the woodwork? I have no idea. YouGov and Survation seemed to get the numbers correct, but based on ridiculous turnouts of the young which didn't occur. Altogether rather puzzling.
An excellent result for the Conservatives percentage wise, I'm sure pre-election anybody would have bit your hand off for 43-44%. Of course a terrible night in terms of seats when you consider Labour hit 40%.
This thread was also a credit to the forum, threads like this are what the forum should be about. We had the usual suspects try and ruin it, but overall it remained informative and betting related rather than partisan abuse.
Glad to see there were people who had a far better night than I did.
Now, how on earth did Lab manage 40%! I've been away for the last week, but literally anybody I've spoken to who was active in the election didn't pick up these Lab voters. Shy Labour? Non-voters coming out of the woodwork? I have no idea. YouGov and Survation seemed to get the numbers correct, but based on ridiculous turnouts of the young which didn't occur. Altogether rather puzzling.
An excellent result for the Conservatives percentage wise, I'm sure pre-election anybody would have bit your hand off for 43-44%. Of course a terrible night in terms of seats when you consider Labour hit 40%.
This thread was also a credit to the forum, threads like this are what the forum should be about. We had the usual suspects try and ruin it, but overall it remained informative and betting related rather than partisan abuse.
Glad to see there were people who had a far better night than I did.
Partisan abuse knock me down with a feather , Billy you underestimated Jeremy again you must keep up
Jun 19, 2017 -- 11:39AM, anxious wrote:
Partisan abuse knock me down with a feather , Billy you underestimated Jeremy again you must keep up
In reference to the comment I made above. It's clear he doesn't have a clue about the subject and every post is abuse filled.
Abuse ? your imagination is in overdrive again , i think he protest to much
It wouldn't surprise me if you don't read your own posts or understand them, but all you ever post on this forum is abuse.
Please enlighten me where have i posted so called abuse on here today
We do this all the time, where you pretend to not be abusive or claim it is the other way around. We go round and round in circles all the time with this charade because you post nothing but abuse and then try and run away from it. It's not as if it's just today either is it? All you ever post on these forums is abusive messages when people don't agree with you.
Not at all that is simply not true , i have asked you where on this thread i have posted so called abuse , again you have failed to provide any evidence , this only again highlights the lies you spread especially towards people who disagree with your political views
Struggling to see any abuse from anxious on this thread, so "every post is absurd filled" seems a transparent falsehood as does "all you ever post on this forum is abuse". Sorry C170 but you're just talking rubbish, aren't you? I can see why anxious' posting style might be irritating but it's not abusive on this thread and don't recall it being abusive on others, much if at all. Think you need to quote some examples or back down, really.
While I like "absurd filled", I meant "abuse filled".
Fatslogger, Was in touch with meadow and he said he remembered you for thanking him for the UKIP tip, appreciated. He says that Joe Biden for the 2020 presidential democrat candidate looks overpriced at 10/1 in places. Also that Ladbrokes already have a few constituency markets up for the next general election which he is keeping an eye on.
Thanks pp. I got a fair profit out of opposing UKIP on various markets I’d not noticed until he pointed them out. Not sure I agree about Biden but then presidential markets this far out are very hard to call. In one 2014 poll, the top Republicans were Bush, Christie, Carson, Huckabee, Paul. I don’t have the local insight to track constituency markets but would be very happy to find a way to discuss this stuff with the pair of you off forum if that works.
Please enlighten me where have i posted so called abuse on here today
Well done anxious, keep up the good work one abuse free day out of 365
Well done anxious, keep up the good work one abuse free day out of 365
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